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Both fast and slow earthquakes are preceded by micro-failure events that radiate energy. According to machine learning, these events can foretell catastrophic failure in laboratory experiment earthquakes.

We address the problem of learning of continuous exponential family distributions with unbounded support. While a lot of progress has been made on learning of Gaussian graphical models, we still lack scalable algorithms for reconstructing general continuous exponential families modeling higher-order moments of the data beyond the mean and the covariance. Here, we introduce a computationally efficient method for learning continuous graphical models based on the Interaction Screening approach. Through a series of numerical experiments, we show that our estimator maintains similar requirements in terms of accuracy and sample complexity scalings compared to alternative approaches such as maximization of conditional likelihood, while considerably improving upon the algorithm's run-time.

A numerical scheme using the combined finite-discrete element methods (FDEM) is employed to study a model of an earthquake system comprising a granular layer embedded in a formation. When the formation is driven so as to shear the granular layer, a system of stress chains emerges. The stress chains endow the layer with resistance to shear and on failure launch broadcasts into the formation. These broadcasts, received as acoustic emission, provide a remote monitor of the state of the granular layer, of the earthquake system.

Anomalous change detection (ACD) methods separate common, uninteresting changes from rare, significant changes in co-registered images collected at different points in time. In this paper we evaluate methods to improve the performance of ACD in detecting human activity in SAR imagery using outdoor music festivals as a target. Our results show that the low dimensionality of SAR data leads to poor performance of ACD when compared to simpler methods such as image differencing, but augmenting the dimensionality of our input feature space by incorporating local spatial information leads to enhanced performance.

Active faults release tectonic stress imposed by plate motion through a spectrum of slip modes, from slow, aseismic slip, to dynamic, seismic events. Slow earthquakes are often associated with tectonic tremor, non-impulsive signals that can easily be buried in seismic noise and go undetected. We present a new methodology aimed at improving the detection and location of tremors hidden within seismic noise. After identifying tremors with a classic convolutional neural network, we rely on neural network attribution to extract core tremor signatures and denoise input waveforms. We then use these cleaned waveforms to locate tremors with standard array-based techniques. We apply this method to the Cascadia subduction zone, where we identify tremor patches consistent with existing catalogs. In particular, we show that the cleaned signals resulting from the neural network attribution analysis correspond to a waveform traveling in the Earth's crust and mantle at wavespeeds consistent with local estimates. This approach allows us to extract small signals hidden within the noise, and therefore to locate more tremors than in existing catalogs.

In this work we demonstrate that generative adversarial networks (GANs) can be used to generate realistic pervasive changes in remote sensing imagery, even in an unpaired training setting. We investigate some transformation quality metrics based on deep embedding of the generated and real images which enable visualization and understanding of the training dynamics of the GAN, and may provide a useful measure in terms of quantifying how distinguishable the generated images are from real images. We also identify some artifacts introduced by the GAN in the generated images, which are likely to contribute to the differences seen between the real and generated samples in the deep embedding feature space even in cases where the real and generated samples appear perceptually similar.

This paper introduces a new method of generating realistic pervasive changes in the context of evaluating the effectiveness of change detection algorithms in controlled settings. The method, a cycle-consistent adversarial network (CycleGAN), requires low quantities of training data to generate realistic changes. Here we show an application of CycleGAN in creating realistic snow-covered scenes of multispectral Sentinel-2 imagery, and demonstrate how these images can be used as a test bed for anomalous change detection algorithms.

The detection and quantification of conflict through remote sensing modalities represents a challenging but crucial aspect of human rights monitoring. In this work we demonstrate how utilizing multi-modal data sources can help build a comprehensive picture of conflict and human displacement, using the Rohingya conflict in the state of Rakhine, Myanmar as a case study. We show that time series analysis of fire detections from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) can reveal anomalous spatial and temporal distributions of fires related to conflict. This work also shows that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter and coherence data can detect the razing and burning of buildings and villages, even in cloudy conditions. These techniques may be further developed in the future to enable the monitoring and detection of signals originating from these types of conflict.

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

The global phenomenon of forest degradation is a pressing issue with severe implications for climate stability and biodiversity protection. In this work we generate Bayesian updating deforestation detection (BUDD) algorithms by incorporating Sentinel-1 backscatter and interferometric coherence with Sentinel-2 normalized vegetation index data. We show that the algorithm provides good performance in validation AOIs. We compare the effectiveness of different combinations of the three data modalities as inputs into the BUDD algorithm and compare against existing benchmarks based on optical imagery.