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The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an increased rate in recent decades. In northeast Greenland, increasing surface melt has accompanied speed-ups in the outlet glaciers of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, which contain over one meter of sea level rise potential. Here we show that the most intense northeast Greenland melt events are driven by atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting northwest Greenland that induce foehn winds in the northeast. Near low-elevation outlet glaciers, 80–100% of extreme (> 99 th percentile) melt occurs during foehn conditions and 50–75% during ARs. These events have become more frequent during the twenty-first century, with 5–10% of total northeast Greenland melt in several recent summers occurring during the ~1% of times with strong AR and foehn conditions. We conclude that the combined AR-foehn influence on northeast Greenland extreme melt will likely continue to grow as regional atmospheric moisture content increases with climate warming. Extreme ice sheet melt events in northeast Greenland occur after intense water vapor transport into northwest Greenland by atmospheric rivers. Through the foehn effect, the air becomes warmer and drier as it descends the ice sheet slope.

Ponding of meltwater on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has the potential to reduce ice sheet albedo and amplify mass loss. However, this process remains poorly constrained and is absent from models that project ice sheet mass balance. Here we demonstrate that meltwater ponding considerably increases the amount of energy available for melting the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first use satellite-derived products to show that meltwater ponding has a significant impact on spatial albedo patterns, particularly in the lower percolation zone. We then use drone imagery to demonstrate that, in the upper ablation zone, there are thousands of narrow streams and small pools (<100 m²) that collectively account for >50% of the total meltwater area. These small meltwater features are not resolved by surface water maps derived from medium-resolution satellite imagery, signifying that the radiative effect of meltwater ponding is three to four times stronger than predicted by satellite-based approaches. Our findings therefore place lower bounds on the radiative effect of meltwater ponding that could be used to advocate for the inclusion of this process into models that forecast Greenland Ice Sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise. Meltwater ponding reduces Greenland Ice Sheet albedo, but this process is not included in models. This study uses drone imagery to show that small streams and ponds, often missed by satellites, considerably increase the energy available for melt.

The contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater runoff to global sea-level rise is accelerating due to increased melting of its bare-ice ablation zone. There is growing evidence, however, that climate models overestimate runoff from this critical area of the ice sheet. Climate models traditionally assume that all bare-ice runoff enters the ocean, unlike porous firn, in which some meltwater is retained and/or refrozen. We used field measurements and numerical modeling to reveal that extensive retention and refreezing also occurs in bare glacier ice. We found that, from 2009 to 2018, meltwater refreezing in bare, porous glacier ice reduced runoff by an estimated 11–17 Gt a −1 in southwest Greenland alone, equivalent to 9–15% of this sector’s annual meltwater runoff simulated by climate models. This mass retention explains evidence from prior studies of runoff overestimation on bare ice by current generation climate models and may represent an overlooked buffer on projected runoff increases. Inclusion of bare-ice retention and refreezing processes in climate models therefore has immediate potential to improve forecasts of ice sheet runoff and its contribution to sea-level rise. New field measurements and modeling show meltwater refreezing in Greenland’s bare ice may reduce runoff to surrounding oceans, highlighting a process climate models can incorporate for improved predictions of future sea-level rise.

Refreezing of meltwater in firn is a major component of Greenland ice-sheet's mass budget, but in situ observations are rare. Here, we compare the firn density and total ice layer thickness in the upper 15 m of 19 new and 27 previously published firn cores drilled at 15 locations in southwest Greenland (1850–2360 m a.s.l.) between 1989 and 2019. At all sites, ice layer thickness covaries with density over time and space. At the two sites with the earliest observations (1989 and 1998), bulk density increased by 15–18%, in the top 15 m over 28 and 21 years, respectively. However, following the extreme melt in 2012, elevation-detrended density using 30 cores from all sites decreased by 15 kg m−3 a−1 in the top 3.75 m between 2013 and 2019. In contrast, the lowest elevation site's density shows no trend. Thus, temporary build-up in firn pore space and meltwater infiltration capacity is possible despite the long-term increase in Greenland ice-sheet melting.

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km² moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Correction to: Nature Communications, published online 29 March 2023 The original version of this Article contained an error in the “Introduction”, which incorrectly read ‘The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has lost ~3.9 billion tons of ice since 1992.’ The correct version states ‘~3,900 billion tons’ in place of ‘~3.9 billion tons’. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Greenland ice sheet surface runoff is drained through supraglacial stream networks. This evacuation influences surface mass balance as well as ice dynamics. However, in situ observations of meltwater discharge through these stream networks are rare. In this study, we present 46 discrete discharge measurements and continuous water level measurements for 62 d spanning the majority of of the melt season (13 June to 13 August) in 2016 for a 0.6 km2 supraglacial stream catchment in southwest Greenland. The result is an unprecedentedly long record of supraglacial discharge that captures both diurnal variability and changes over the melt season. A comparison of surface energy fluxes to stream discharge reveals shortwave radiation as the primary driver of melting. However, during high-melt episodes, the contribution of shortwave radiation to melt energy is reduced by ∼40  % (from 1.13 to 0.73 proportion). Instead, the relative contribution of longwave radiation, sensible heat fluxes, and latent heat fluxes to overall melt increases by ∼24 %, 6 %, and 10 % (proportion increased from −0.32 to −0.08, 0.28 to 0.34, and −0.04 to 0.06) respectively. Our data also identify that the timing of daily maximum discharge during clear-sky days shifts from 16:00 local time (i.e., 2 h 45 min after solar noon) in late June to 14:00 in late July and then rapidly returns to 16:00 in early August. The change in the timing of daily maximum discharge could be attributed to the expansion and contraction of the stream network, caused by skin temperatures that likely fell below freezing at night. The abrupt shift, in early August, in the timing of daily maximum discharge coincides with a drop in air temperature, a drop in the amount of water temporarily stored in weathering crust, and a decreasing covariance between stream velocity and discharge. Further work is needed to investigate if these results can be transferable to larger catchments and uncover if rapid shifts in the timing of peak discharge are widespread across Greenland supraglacial streams and thus have an impact on meltwater delivery to the subglacial system and ice dynamics.

Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet has been increasing in intensity and extent over the last decades due to Arctic atmospheric warming. Surface melt depends on the surface energy balance, which includes the atmospheric forcing but also the thermal budget of the snow, firn and ice near the ice sheet surface. The temperature of the ice sheet subsurface has been used as an indicator of the thermal state of the ice sheet's surface. Here, we present a compilation of 4612 measurements of firn and ice temperature at 10 m below the surface (T10 m) across the ice sheet, spanning from 1912 to 2022. The measurements are either instantaneous or monthly averages. We train an artificial neural network model (ANN) on 4597 of these point observations, weighted by their relative representativity, and use it to reconstruct T10 m over the entire Greenland ice sheet for the period 1950–2022 at a monthly timescale. We use 10-year averages and mean annual values of air temperature and snowfall from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset as model input. The ANN indicates a Greenland-wide positive trend of T10 m at 0.2 ∘C per decade during the 1950–2022 period, with a cooling during 1950–1985 (−0.4 ∘C per decade) followed by a warming during 1985–2022 (+0.7 ∘ per decade). Regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2.3p2 and MARv3.12 show mixed results compared to the observational T10 m dataset, with mean differences ranging from −0.4 ∘C (HIRHAM) to 1.2 ∘C (MAR) and root mean squared differences ranging from 2.8 ∘C (HIRHAM) to 4.7 ∘C (MAR). The observation-based ANN also reveals an underestimation of the subsurface warming trends in climate models for the bare-ice and dry-snow areas. The subsurface warming brings the Greenland ice sheet surface closer to the melting point, reducing the amount of energy input required for melting. Our compilation documents the response of the ice sheet subsurface to atmospheric warming and will enable further improvements of models used for ice sheet mass loss assessment and reduce the uncertainty in projections.

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet alters ocean surface salinity. Numerical simulations show that meltwater from southeastern Greenland is transported to the Labrador Sea more efficiently than that from southwestern Greenland. The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamics 1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean 2 . It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 3 . Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1–15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50–60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

Significance Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet is a key contributor to global sea level rise and is expected to increase in the future, but it has received little observational study. We used satellite and in situ technologies to assess surface drainage conditions on the southwestern ablation surface after an extreme 2012 melting event. We conclude that the ice sheet surface is efficiently drained under optimal conditions, that digital elevation models alone cannot fully describe supraglacial drainage and its connection to subglacial systems, and that predicting outflow from climate models alone, without recognition of subglacial processes, may overestimate true meltwater release from the ice sheet. Thermally incised meltwater channels that flow each summer across melt-prone surfaces of the Greenland ice sheet have received little direct study. We use high-resolution WorldView-1/2 satellite mapping and in situ measurements to characterize supraglacial water storage, drainage pattern, and discharge across 6,812 km ² of southwest Greenland in July 2012, after a record melt event. Efficient surface drainage was routed through 523 high-order stream/river channel networks, all of which terminated in moulins before reaching the ice edge. Low surface water storage (3.6 ± 0.9 cm), negligible impoundment by supraglacial lakes or topographic depressions, and high discharge to moulins (2.54–2.81 cm⋅d ⁻¹) indicate that the surface drainage system conveyed its own storage volume every <2 d to the bed. Moulin discharges mapped inside ∼52% of the source ice watershed for Isortoq, a major proglacial river, totaled ∼41–98% of observed proglacial discharge, highlighting the importance of supraglacial river drainage to true outflow from the ice edge. However, Isortoq discharges tended lower than runoff simulations from the Modèle Atmosphèérique Rèéégional (MAR) regional climate model (0.056–0.112 km ³⋅d ⁻¹ vs. ∼0.103 km ³⋅d ⁻¹), and when integrated over the melt season, totaled just 37–75% of MAR, suggesting nontrivial subglacial water storage even in this melt-prone region of the ice sheet. We conclude that ( i ) the interior surface of the ice sheet can be efficiently drained under optimal conditions, ( ii ) that digital elevation models alone cannot fully describe supraglacial drainage and its connection to subglacial systems, and ( iii ) that predicting outflow from climate models alone, without recognition of subglacial processes, may overestimate true meltwater export from the ice sheet to the ocean.