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Accurate predictions of crop yield are critical for developing effective agricultural and food policies at the regional and global scales. We evaluated a machine-learning method, Random Forests (RF), for its ability to predict crop yield responses to climate and biophysical variables at global and regional scales in wheat, maize, and potato in comparison with multiple linear regressions (MLR) serving as a benchmark. We used crop yield data from various sources and regions for model training and testing: 1) gridded global wheat grain yield, 2) maize grain yield from US counties over thirty years, and 3) potato tuber and maize silage yield from the northeastern seaboard region. RF was found highly capable of predicting crop yields and outperformed MLR benchmarks in all performance statistics that were compared. For example, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranged between 6 and 14% of the average observed yield with RF models in all test cases whereas these values ranged from 14% to 49% for MLR models. Our results show that RF is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for crop yield predictions at regional and global scales for its high accuracy and precision, ease of use, and utility in data analysis. RF may result in a loss of accuracy when predicting the extreme ends or responses beyond the boundaries of the training data.

In the bioenergy industry, highway hauling cost is typically 30%, or more, of the average cost of feedstock delivered to a biorefinery. Thus, truck productivity, in terms of Mg/d/truck, is a key issue in the design of a logistics system. One possible solution to this problem that is being explored is the utilization of modular pellet depots. In such a logistics system, raw biomass (i.e., low-bulk-density product) is converted into pellets (i.e., high-bulk-density product) by several smaller-scale modular pellet depots instead of by a single larger-capacity pellet depot. A truckload of raw biomass (e.g., round bales) is 16 Mg and a load of pellets is 34 Mg. The distribution of depots across a feedstock production area can potentially have an impact on the total truck operating hours (i.e., raw biomass hauling to a depot + pellet hauling from the depot to the biorefinery) required to deliver feedstock for annual operation of a biorefinery. This study examined three different distributions of depots across five feedstock production areas. The numbers of depots were one, two, and four per production area for totals of five, ten, and twenty depots. Increasing the number of depots from five to ten reduced raw biomass hauling hours by 12%, and increasing from five to twenty reduced these hours by 30%. Total hauling hours (raw biomass + pellets) were reduced by less than 1% with an increase from five to ten and by about 11% with an increase from five to twenty. The modular pellet depot concept demonstrated potential for providing improvements to biorefinery logistics systems, but more research is needed to optimize this balance.

Accurate and precise measures of channel morphology are important when monitoring a stream post-restoration to determine changes in stability, water quality, and aquatic habitat availability. Practitioners often rely on traditional surveying methods such as a total station for measuring channel metrics (e.g., cross-sectional area, width, depth, and slope). However, these methods have limitations in terms of coarse sampling densities and time-intensive field efforts. Drone-based lidar or drone laser scanning (DLS) provides much higher resolution point clouds and has the potential to improve post-restoration monitoring efforts. For this study, a 1.3-km reach of Stroubles Creek (Blacksburg, VA, USA), which underwent a restoration in 2010, was surveyed twice with a total station (2010 and 2021) and twice with DLS (2017 and 2021). The initial restoration was divided into three treatment reaches: T1 (livestock exclusion), T2 (livestock exclusion and bank treatment), and T3 (livestock exclusion, bank treatment, and inset floodplain). Cross-sectional channel morphology metrics were extracted from the 2021 DLS scan and compared to metrics calculated from the 2021 total station survey. DLS produced 6.5 times the number of cross sections over the study reach and 8.8 times the number of points per cross section compared to the total station. There was good agreement between the metrics derived from both surveying methods, such as channel width (R2 = 0.672) and cross-sectional area (R2 = 0.597). As a proof of concept to demonstrate the advantage of DLS over traditional surveying, 0.1 m digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated from the DLS data. Based on the drone lidar data, from 2017 to 2021, treatment reach T3 showed the most stability, in terms of the least change and variability in cross-sectional metrics as well as the least erosion area and volume per length of reach.

Riverscapes are complex ecosystems consisting of dynamic processes influenced by spatially heterogeneous physical features. A critical component of riverscapes is vegetation in the stream channel and floodplain, which influences flooding and provides habitat. Riverscape vegetation can be highly variable in size and structure, including wetland plants, grasses, shrubs, and trees. This vegetation variability is difficult to precisely measure over large extents with traditional surveying tools. Drone laser scanning (DLS), or UAV-based lidar, has shown potential for measuring topography and vegetation over large extents at a high resolution but has yet to be used to quantify both the temporal and spatial variability of riverscape vegetation. Scans were performed on a reach of Stroubles Creek in Blacksburg, VA, USA six times between 2017 and 2019. Change was calculated both annually and seasonally over the two-year period. Metrics were derived from the lidar scans to represent different aspects of riverscape vegetation: height, roughness, and density. Vegetation was classified as scrub or tree based on the height above ground and 604 trees were manually identified in the riverscape, which grew on average by 0.74 m annually. Trees had greater annual growth and scrub had greater seasonal variability. Height and roughness were better measures of annual growth and density was a better measure of seasonal variability. The results demonstrate the advantage of repeat surveys with high-resolution DLS for detecting seasonal variability in the riverscape environment, including the growth and decay of floodplain vegetation, which is critical information for various hydraulic and ecological applications.

The delivery of herbaceous feedstock from satellite storage locations (SSLs) to a biorefinery or preprocessing depot is a logistics problem that must be optimized before a new bioenergy industry can be realized. Both load-out productivity, defined as the loading of 5 × 4 round bales into a 20-bale rack at the SSL, and truck productivity, defined as the hauling of bales from the SSLs to the biorefinery, must be maximized. Productivity (Mg/d) is maximized and cost (USD/Mg) is minimized when approximately the same number the loads is received each day. To achieve this, a central control model is proposed, where a feedstock manager at the biorefinery can dispatch a truck to any SSL where a load will be available when the truck arrives. Simulations of this central control model for different numbers of simultaneous load-out operations were performed using a database of potential production fields within a 50 km radius of a theoretical biorefinery in Gretna, VA. The minimum delivered cost (i.e., load-out plus truck) was achieved with nine load-outs and a fleet of eight trucks. The estimated cost was 11.24 and 11.62 USD/Mg of annual biorefinery capacity (assuming 24/7 operation over 48 wk/y for a total of approximately 150,000 Mg/y) for the load-out and truck, respectively. The two costs were approximately equal, reinforcing the desirability of a central control to maximize the productivity of these two key operations simultaneously.

The impact of average delivered feedstock cost on the overall financial viability of biorefineries is the focus of this study, and it is explored by modeling the efficient delivery of round bales of herbaceous biomass to a hypothetical biorefinery in the Piedmont, a physiographic region across five states in the Southeastern USA. The complete database (nominal 150,000 Mg/y biorefinery capacity) had 199 satellite storage locations (SSLs) within a 50-km radius of Gretna, a town in South Central Virginia USA, chosen as the biorefinery location. Two additional databases, nominal 50,000 Mg/y (29.1-km radius, 71 SSLs) and nominal 100,000 Mg/y (40-km radius, 133 SSLs) were created, and delivery was simulated for a 24/7 operation, 48 wk/y. The biorefinery capacities were 15.5, 31.1, and 47.3 bales/h for the 50,000, 100,000, and 150,000 Mg/y databases, respectively. Three load-outs operated simultaneously to supply the 15.5 bale/h biorefinery, six for the 31.1 bale/h biorefinery, and nine for the 47.3 bale/h biorefinery. The required truck fleet was three, six, and nine trucks, respectively. The cost for load-out and delivery was 11.63 USD/Mg for the 50,000 Mg/y biorefinery. It increased to 12.46 and 12.99 USD/Mg as the biorefinery capacity doubled to 100,000 Mg/y and tripled to 150,000 Mg/y. Most of the cost increase was due to an increase in truck cost as haul distance increased with the radius of the feedstock supply area. There was a small increase in load-out cost due to an increased cost for travel to support the load-out operations. The less-than-expected increase in average hauling cost for the increase in feedstock production area highlights the influence of efficient scheduling achieved with central control of the truck fleet.

The Eastern Seaboard region (ESR) of the United States is densely populated and depends on imported food. Agricultural systems are vulnerable to uncertainties such as environmental conditions, climate change, and transportation costs. Local populations could benefit from regional food systems as a way to provide security; however, the potential production capacity of the region would first need to be quantified. Potential production capacity for a specific crop, potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), was explored in two ways: expansion of the harvested land area and closing the yield gap between observed and potential yield. Potato production was assessed from Maine to Virginia for current land use (land under potato cultivation) and potential land use (other cropland). Simulations were based on two water availability scenarios: limited and nonlimited. A geospatial model implementing the explanatory model SPUDSIM estimated crop production (crop yield, water use, and N uptake) based on spatially variable input data (weather, soil, and management). Potato production was simulated in 35 potato‐producing counties and in 346 counties with cropland. Under water‐limited conditions, the response surface of production showed greater yield in the northern ESR states (median 28.24 Mg ha–1) than in the southern states (median 15.41 Mg ha–1). Resource requirements (water and N) and biophysical constraints (climate and soil) to production were also evaluated. In general, potato yield was negatively correlated with higher average seasonal temperatures and denser soil profiles. The results from this study will be valuable for regional policy planners to assess the capacity of the regional ESR food system.

Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) influences photosynthesis (AN), transpiration (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) for well‐watered potato (Solanum tuberosum L.). Little is known regarding effects of short‐term drought and CO2. Two experiments, differing in the quantity of solar radiation, were conducted in soil‐plant‐atmosphere‐research chambers. Plants were grown at ambient (aCO2) or twice‐ambient CO2 (eCO2) and received one of three irrigation treatments: no water stress (C), short‐term (11–16 d) water‐withholding during vegetative and post‐tuber initiation stages (VR), or post‐tuber initiation (R) only. Canopy conductance to CO2 transfer (τ) and water vapor (Gv), light use efficiency (α), daily AN, and ET decreased at the onset of each drought and were correlated with volumetric water content. The rate of decrease was similar for R and VR. Gv declined more sharply than AN, resulting in higher WUE. Seasonal AN declined with the pattern of C > R > VR and was higher for eCO2 C and R treatments. Seasonal WUE was higher for eCO2 at all irrigation treatments. Total dry matter, harvest index, and leaf area were reduced (p < 0.05) for droughted treatments and total dry matter and harvest index were also higher for eCO2 VR pots. Relative responses to drought and CO2 were similar among experiments, with greater magnitude of response under high solar radiation. Findings were similar to those reported under longer‐term water‐withholding studies, suggesting that interactions between CO2 and drought on carbon assimilation and water use are conserved across production zones with varying radiation and rainfall patterns.