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Lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) populations of in the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado, USA, have declined sharply since the mid-1980s. Decreased quality and availability of habitat are believed to be the main drivers of declines. Our objective was to reconstruct broad-scale change in the ecoregion since 1985 as a potential factor in population declines. We assessed temporal change from 1985–2015 in landcover types and calculated landscape metrics using Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection imagery layers. We also documented presence of anthropogenic structures including oil wells and electrical transmission lines. Landcover type composition changed little since 1990 across the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion. However, anthropogenic structures (i.e., oil/gas wells, cell towers, wind farms, and transmission lines) notably increased, potentially causing functional habitat loss at a broad scale. Increased anthropogenic structures may have decreased habitat availability as well as the quality of existing habitat for lesser prairie-chickens, possibly contributing to recent population declines throughout the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion.

The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) presents an opportunity for climate‐change refugia conservation through the expansion of the U.S. protected areas network. Dedicated to conserving and restoring fish, wildlife, and plants and their habitats, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses best available science to assess three main criteria in the evaluation and prioritization of proposed new refuges and refuge expansions: species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, migratory birds, and waterfowl. We used spatial datasets to explore the current and potential capacity for national wildlife refuges to serve as climate‐change refugia and enable the persistence of these three priority groups of species. We developed a refugia metric for each of the three species groups, analyzing values for lands and waters managed by the agency, approved for acquisition, and within 25 km of managed boundaries. We found that, as a whole, the NWRS had significantly greater refugia value than, on average, for the contiguous United States, with variability by USFWS region and refugia metric. While, on average, acquiring approved interests in lands and waters did not significantly increase the refugial value of the NWRS, it did not lower its elevated value, suggesting that current interests could also make a relatively strong contribution. Importantly, there was high variability among refuge units with regard to the refugial value of approved acquisition areas and refuge‐adjacent areas, providing expansion options that resulted in improvements for all refugia metrics and regions. We discuss the implications of these findings for expansion as well as additional considerations for next steps and application.

Fragmentation of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem has led to concern about a variety of sagebrush obligates including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Given the increase of energy development within greater sage-grouse habitats, mapping seasonal habitats in pre-development populations is critical. The North Park population in Colorado is one of the largest and most stable in the state and provides a unique case study for investigating resource selection at a relatively low level of energy development compared to other populations both within and outside the state. We used locations from 117 radio-marked female greater sage-grouse in North Park, Colorado to develop seasonal resource selection models. We then added energy development variables to the base models at both a landscape and local scale to determine if energy variables improved the fit of the seasonal models. The base models for breeding and winter resource selection predicted greater use in large expanses of sagebrush whereas the base summer model predicted greater use along the edge of riparian areas. Energy development variables did not improve the winter or the summer models at either scale of analysis, but distance to oil/gas roads slightly improved model fit at both scales in the breeding season, albeit in opposite ways. At the landscape scale, greater sage-grouse were closer to oil/gas roads whereas they were further from oil/gas roads at the local scale during the breeding season. Although we found limited effects from low level energy development in the breeding season, the scale of analysis can influence the interpretation of effects. The lack of strong effects from energy development may be indicative that energy development at current levels are not impacting greater sage-grouse in North Park. Our baseline seasonal resource selection maps can be used for conservation to help identify ways of minimizing the effects of energy development.

Conservation translocations are frequently inhibited by extensive dispersal after release, which can expose animals to dispersal‐related mortality or Allee effects due to a lack of nearby conspecifics. However, translocation‐induced dispersals also provide opportunities to study how animals move across a novel landscape, and how their movements are influenced by landscape configuration and anthropogenic features. Translocation among populations is considered a potential conservation strategy for lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). We determined the influence of release area on dispersal frequency by translocated lesser prairie‐chickens and measured how lesser prairie‐chickens move through grassland landscapes through avoidance of anthropogenic features during their dispersal movements. We translocated 411 lesser prairie‐chickens from northwest Kansas to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in 2016–2019. We used satellite GPS transmitters to track 115 lesser prairie‐chickens throughout their post‐release dispersal movements. We found that almost all lesser prairie‐chickens that survived from their spring release date until June undergo post‐translocation dispersal, and there was little variation in dispersal frequency by release area (96% of all tracked birds, 100% in Baca County, Colorado, 94% in Morton County, Kansas, n = 55). Dispersal movements (male: 103 ± 73 km, female: 175 ± 108 km, n = 62) led to diffusion across landscapes, with 69% of birds settling >5 km from their release site. During dispersal movements, translocated lesser prairie‐chickens usually travel by a single 3.75 ± 4.95 km dispersal flight per day, selecting for steps that end far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. Due to this “stepping stone” method of transit, landscape connectivity is optimized when <5 km separates grassland patches on the landscape. Future persistence of lesser prairie‐chicken populations can be aided through conservation of habitat and strategic placement of CRP to maximize habitat connectivity. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to objectives for regional, rather than site‐specific, population augmentation for this species. Lesser prairie‐chickens translocated to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas experienced almost universal dispersal away from the release site (96%). During dispersal movements, lesser prairie‐chickens selected for steps that ended far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program grasslands. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to regional, rather than site‐specific, population augmentation for this species.

Background Characterizing animal space use is critical for understanding ecological relationships. Animal telemetry technology has revolutionized the fields of ecology and conservation biology by providing high quality spatial data on animal movement. Radio-telemetry with very high frequency (VHF) radio signals continues to be a useful technology because of its low cost, miniaturization, and low battery requirements. Despite a number of statistical developments synthetically integrating animal location estimation and uncertainty with spatial process models using satellite telemetry data, we are unaware of similar developments for azimuthal telemetry data. As such, there are few statistical options to handle these unique data and no synthetic framework for modeling animal location uncertainty and accounting for it in ecological models. We developed a hierarchical modeling framework to provide robust animal location estimates from one or more intersecting or non-intersecting azimuths. We used our azimuthal telemetry model (ATM) to account for azimuthal uncertainty with covariates and propagate location uncertainty into spatial ecological models. We evaluate the ATM with commonly used estimators (Lenth (1981) maximum likelihood and M-Estimators) using simulation. We also provide illustrative empirical examples, demonstrating the impact of ignoring location uncertainty within home range and resource selection analyses. We further use simulation to better understand the relationship among location uncertainty, spatial covariate autocorrelation, and resource selection inference. Results We found the ATM to have good performance in estimating locations and the only model that has appropriate measures of coverage. Ignoring animal location uncertainty when estimating resource selection or home ranges can have pernicious effects on ecological inference. Home range estimates can be overly confident and conservative when ignoring location uncertainty and resource selection coefficients can lead to incorrect inference and over confidence in the magnitude of selection. Furthermore, our simulation study clarified that incorporating location uncertainty helps reduce bias in resource selection coefficients across all levels of covariate spatial autocorrelation. Conclusion The ATM can accommodate one or more azimuths when estimating animal locations, regardless of how they intersect; this ensures that all data collected are used for ecological inference. Our findings and model development have important implications for interpreting historical analyses using this type of data and the future design of radio-telemetry studies.

Animal site fidelity structures space use, population demography and ultimately gene flow. Understanding the adaptive selection for site fidelity patterns provides a mechanistic understanding to both spatial and population processes. This can be achieved by linking space use with environmental variability (spatial and temporal) and demographic parameters. However, rarely is the environmental context that drives the selection for site fidelity behaviour fully considered. We use ecological theory to understand whether the spatial and temporal variability in breeding site quality can explain the site fidelity behaviour and demographic patterns of Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We examined female site fidelity patterns across multiple spatial scales: proximity of consecutive year nest locations, space‐use overlap within and across the breeding and brooding seasons, and fidelity to a breeding patch. We also examined the spatial and temporal variability in nest, chick, juvenile and adult survival. We found Gunnison sage‐grouse to be site faithful to their breeding patch, area of use within the patch and generally where they nest, suggesting an “Always Stay” site fidelity strategy. This is an optimal evolutionary strategy when site quality is unpredictable. Further, we found limited spatial variability in survival within age groups, suggesting little demographic benefit to moving among patches. We suggest Gunnison sage‐grouse site fidelity is driven by the unpredictability of predation in a relatively homogeneous environment, the lack of benefits and likely costs to moving across landscape patches and leaving known lek and breeding/brooding areas. Space use and demography are commonly studied separately. More so, site fidelity patterns are rarely framed in the context of ecological theory, beyond questions related to the win‐stay:lose‐switch rule. To move beyond describing patterns and understand the adaptive selection driving species movements and their demographic consequences require integrating movement, demography and environmental variability in a synthetic framework. Site fidelity theory provides a coherent framework to simultaneously investigate the spatial and population ecology of animal populations. Using it to frame ecological questions will lead to a more mechanistic understanding of animal movement, spatial population structuring and meta‐population dynamics. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Resource allocation for land acquisition is a common multiobjective problem that involves complex trade-offs. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service currently uses the Targeted Resource Acquisition Comparison Tool (TRACT) to allocate funds from the Migratory Bird Conservation Fund (MBCF; established through the Migratory Bird Hunting and Conservation Act of 1934) for land acquisition based on cost–benefit analysis, regional priority rankings of candidate land parcels available for acquisition, and the overall biological contribution to duck population objectives. However, current policy encourages decision makers to consider societal and economic benefits of lands acquired, in addition to their biological benefits to waterfowl. These decisions about portfolio elements (i.e., individual land parcels) require an analysis of the difficult trade-offs among multiple objectives. In the last decade the application of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods has been instrumental in aiding decision makers with complex multiobjective decisions. In this study, we present an alternative approach to developing land-acquisition portfolios using MCDA and modern portfolio theory (MPT). We describe the development of a portfolio decision analysis tool using constrained optimization for land-acquisition decisions by the NWRS. We outline the decision framework, describe development of the prototype tool in Microsoft Excel, and test the results of the tool using land parcels submitted as candidates for MBCF funding in 2019. Our results indicate that the constrained optimization outperformed the traditional TRACT method and ad hoc portfolios developed using current NWRS criteria.

Grazing management recommendations often sacrifice the intrinsic heterogeneity of grasslands by prescribing uniform grazing distributions through smaller pastures, increased stocking densities, and reduced grazing periods. The lack of patch-burn grazing in semi-arid landscapes of the western Great Plains in North America requires alternative grazing management strategies to create and maintain heterogeneity of habitat structure (e.g., animal unit distribution, pasture configuration), but knowledge of their effects on grassland fauna is limited. The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), an imperiled, grassland-obligate, native to the southern Great Plains, is an excellent candidate for investigating effects of heterogeneity-based grazing management strategies because it requires diverse microhabitats among life-history stages in a semi-arid landscape. We evaluated influences of heterogeneity-based grazing management strategies on vegetation structure, habitat selection, and nest and adult survival of lesser prairie-chickens in western Kansas, USA. We captured and monitored 116 female lesser prairie-chickens marked with very high frequency (VHF) or global positioning system (GPS) transmitters and collected landscape-scale vegetation and grazing data during 2013–2015. Vegetation structure heterogeneity increased at stocking densities ≤0.26 animal units/ha, where use by nonbreeding female lesser prairie-chickens also increased. Probability of use for nonbreeding lesser prairie-chickens peaked at values of cattle forage use values near 37% and steadily decreased with use ≥40%. Probability of use was positively affected by increasing pasture area. A quadratic relationship existed between growing season deferment and probability of use. We found that 70% of nests were located in grazing units in which grazing pressure was <0.8 animal unit months/ha. Daily nest survival was negatively correlated with grazing pressure. We found no relationship between adult survival and grazing management strategies. Conservation in grasslands expressing flora community composition appropriate for lesser prairie-chickens can maintain appropriate habitat structure heterogeneity through the use of low to moderate stocking densities (<0.26 animal units/ha), greater pasture areas, and site-appropriate deferment periods. Alternative grazing management strategies (e.g., rest-rotation, season-long rest) may be appropriate in grasslands requiring greater heterogeneity or during intensive drought. Grazing management favoring habitat heterogeneity instead of uniform grazing distributions will likely be more conducive for preserving lesser prairie-chicken populations and grassland biodiversity.

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

Fragmentation of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem has led to concern about a variety of sagebrush obligates including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Given the increase of energy development within greater sage-grouse habitats, mapping seasonal habitats in pre-development populations is critical. The North Park population in Colorado is one of the largest and most stable in the state and provides a unique case study for investigating resource selection at a relatively low level of energy development compared to other populations both within and outside the state. We used locations from 117 radio-marked female greater sage-grouse in North Park, Colorado to develop seasonal resource selection models. We then added energy development variables to the base models at both a landscape and local scale to determine if energy variables improved the fit of the seasonal models. The base models for breeding and winter resource selection predicted greater use in large expanses of sagebrush whereas the base summer model predicted greater use along the edge of riparian areas. Energy development variables did not improve the winter or the summer models at either scale of analysis, but distance to oil/gas roads slightly improved model fit at both scales in the breeding season, albeit in opposite ways. At the landscape scale, greater sage-grouse were closer to oil/gas roads whereas they were further from oil/gas roads at the local scale during the breeding season. Although we found limited effects from low level energy development in the breeding season, the scale of analysis can influence the interpretation of effects. The lack of strong effects from energy development may be indicative that energy development at current levels are not impacting greater sage-grouse in North Park. Our baseline seasonal resource selection maps can be used for conservation to help identify ways of minimizing the effects of energy development.