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The latitudinal gradient in species richness, with more species in the tropics and richness declining with latitude, is widely known and has been assumed to be stable over recent centuries. We analyzed data on 48,661 marine animal species since 1955, accounting for sampling variation, to assess whether the global latitudinal gradient in species richness is being impacted by climate change.We confirm recent studies that show a slight dip in species richness at the equator. Moreover, richness across latitudinal bands was sensitive to temperature, reaching a plateau or declining above a mean annual sea surface temperature of 20 °C for most taxa. In response, since the 1970s, species richness has declined at the equator relative to an increase at midlatitudes and has shifted north in the northern hemisphere, particularly among pelagic species. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is impacting the latitudinal gradient in marine biodiversity at a global scale. The intensification of the dip in species richness at the equator, especially for pelagic species, suggests that it is already too warm there for some species to survive.

Ocean warming will cause widespread changes in species richness and assemblage composition over coming decades, with important implications for both conservation management and international ocean governance. Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management 1 but remains a critical knowledge gap 2 . Here, we use climate velocity trajectories 3 , together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 4 (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies 5 , 6 . We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts 7 , 8 highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

Marine ecosystems are changing rapidly as the oceans warm and become more acidic. The physical factors and the changes to ocean chemistry that they drive can all be measured with great precision. Changes in the biological composition of communities in different ocean regions are far more challenging to measure because most biological monitoring methods focus on a limited taxonomic or size range. Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis has the potential to solve this problem in biological oceanography, as it is capable of identifying a huge phylogenetic range of organisms to species level. Here we develop and apply a novel multi-gene molecular toolkit to eDNA isolated from bulk plankton samples collected over a five-year period from a single site. This temporal scale and level of detail is unprecedented in eDNA studies. We identified consistent seasonal assemblages of zooplankton species, which demonstrates the ability of our toolkit to audit community composition. We were also able to detect clear departures from the regular seasonal patterns that occurred during an extreme marine heatwave. The integration of eDNA analyses with existing biotic and abiotic surveys delivers a powerful new long-term approach to monitoring the health of our world's oceans in the context of a rapidly changing climate.

Zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish. Yet, there is limited understanding about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and the implications for marine food webs globally. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we find that future oceans, particularly in tropical regions, favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps) at the expense of omnivorous copepods and euphausiids. By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter feeders partially offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton biomass and increases in carnivorous zooplankton. However, future fish communities experience reduced carrying capacity from falling phytoplankton biomass and less nutritious food as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton, slightly exacerbating projected declines in small pelagic fish biomass in tropical regions by 2100.Using a trait-based model that resolves key zooplankton groups, the authors reveal future shifts to food webs dominated by carnivorous and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton. Subsequent decreases in food nutrition are linked to declines in small pelagic fish biomass, particularly in tropical regions.

Global stressors, including climate change, are a major threat to ecosystems, but they cannot be halted by local actions. Ecosystem management is thus attempting to compensate for the impacts of global stressors by reducing local stressors, such as overfishing. This approach assumes that stressors interact additively or synergistically, whereby the combined effect of two stressors is at least the sum of their isolated effects. It is not clear, however, how management should proceed for antagonistic interactions among stressors, where multiple stressors do not have an additive or greater impact. Research to date has focussed on identifying synergisms among stressors, but antagonisms may be just as common. We examined the effectiveness of management when faced with different types of interactions in two systems--seagrass and fish communities--where the global stressor was climate change but the local stressors were different. When there were synergisms, mitigating local stressors delivered greater gains, whereas when there were antagonisms, management of local stressors was ineffective or even degraded ecosystems. These results suggest that reducing a local stressor can compensate for climate change impacts if there is a synergistic interaction. Conversely, if there is an antagonistic interaction, management of local stressors will have the greatest benefits in areas of refuge from climate change. A balanced research agenda, investigating both antagonistic and synergistic interaction types, is needed to inform management priorities.

Zooplankton are major consumers of phytoplankton primary production in marine ecosystems. As such, they represent a critical link for energy and matter transfer between phytoplankton and bacterioplankton to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. In this Review, we discuss key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, including shifts in phenology, range, and body size, and assess the implications to the biological carbon pump and interactions with higher trophic levels. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps and geographic gaps in monitoring coverage that need to be urgently addressed. We also discuss an integrated sampling approach that combines traditional and novel techniques to improve zooplankton observation for the benefit of monitoring zooplankton populations and modelling future scenarios under global changes.

Anthropogenic activities threaten global biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, area-based conservation efforts typically target biodiversity protection whilst minimising conflict with economic activities, failing to consider ecosystem services. Here we identify priority areas that maximise both the protection of mangrove biodiversity and their ecosystem services. We reveal that despite 13.5% of the mangrove distribution being currently strictly protected, all mangrove species are not adequately represented and many areas that provide disproportionally large ecosystem services are missed. Optimising the placement of future conservation efforts to protect 30% of global mangroves potentially safeguards an additional 16.3 billion USD of coastal property value, 6.1 million people, 1173.1 Tg C, and 50.7 million fisher days yr −1 . Our findings suggest that there is a pressing need for including ecosystem services in protected area design and that strategic prioritisation and coordination of mangrove conservation could provide substantial benefits to human wellbeing. Mangroves provide ecosystem services but are threatened by anthropogenic activities. This study identifies priority areas that maximise the protection of mangrove biodiversity and ecosystem services. The authors show that biodiversity can be protected whilst maximising ecosystem benefits, with little or no increase in the protected area required.

Slower warming in the deep ocean encourages a perception that its biodiversity is less exposed to climate change than that of surface waters. We challenge this notion by analysing climate velocity, which provides expectations for species’ range shifts. We find that contemporary (1955–2005) climate velocities are faster in the deep ocean than at the surface. Moreover, projected climate velocities in the future (2050–2100) are faster for all depth layers, except at the surface, under the most aggressive GHG mitigation pathway considered (representative concentration pathway, RCP 2.6). This suggests that while mitigation could limit climate change threats for surface biodiversity, deep-ocean biodiversity faces an unavoidable escalation in climate velocities, most prominently in the mesopelagic (200–1,000 m). To optimize opportunities for climate adaptation among deep-ocean communities, future open-ocean protected areas must be designed to retain species moving at different speeds at different depths under climate change while managing non-climate threats, such as fishing and mining.Marine biodiversity is at risk as the ocean warms, but currently the focus has been at the surface as the deep ocean has warmed less. Climate velocity—the speed and direction of isotherm displacement—is calculated to be faster in the deep ocean, and projections show this difference will grow.

Research that combines all available studies of biological responses to regional and global climate change shows that 81–83% of all observations were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. These findings were replicated across taxa and oceanic basins. Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations 1 , 2 , taxonomic groups 2 , 3 , 4 and/or biological responses 5 , 6 . This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts in species’ distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems.

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change 1 . Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production 2 , 3 . Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals 4 are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.