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The circulation of the Southern Ocean connects ocean basins, links the deep and shallow layers of the ocean, and has a strong influence on global ocean circulation, climate, biogeochemical cycles and the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Processes that act on local and regional scales, which are often mediated by the interaction of the flow with topography, are fundamental in shaping the large-scale, three-dimensional circulation of the Southern Ocean. Recent advances provide insight into the response of the Southern Ocean to future change and the implications for climate, the carbon cycle and sea-level rise.

The abyssal ocean circulation is a key component of the global meridional overturning circulation, cycling heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients throughout the world ocean 1 , 2 . The strongest historical trend observed in the abyssal ocean is warming at high southern latitudes 2 – 4 , yet it is unclear what processes have driven this warming, and whether this warming is linked to a slowdown in the ocean’s overturning circulation. Furthermore, attributing change to specific drivers is difficult owing to limited measurements, and because coupled climate models exhibit biases in the region 5 – 7 . In addition, future change remains uncertain, with the latest coordinated climate model projections not accounting for dynamic ice-sheet melt. Here we use a transient forced high-resolution coupled ocean–sea-ice model to show that under a high-emissions scenario, abyssal warming is set to accelerate over the next 30 years. We find that meltwater input around Antarctica drives a contraction of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), opening a pathway that allows warm Circumpolar Deep Water greater access to the continental shelf. The reduction in AABW formation results in warming and ageing of the abyssal ocean, consistent with recent measurements. In contrast, projected wind and thermal forcing has little impact on the properties, age and volume of AABW. These results highlight the critical importance of Antarctic meltwater in setting the abyssal ocean overturning, with implications for global ocean biogeochemistry and climate that could last for centuries. Simulations show that projected increases in Antarctic meltwater will slow down the abyssal ocean overturning circulation over the coming decades and lead to warming and ageing of the ocean abyss.

High resolution hydrographic sections and maps of the gradient of sea surface height (SSH) reveal that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) consists of multiple jets or frontal filaments. Here we use a 15 year time series of SSH observations to determine the circumpolar structure and distribution of the ACC fronts. The jets are consistently aligned with particular streamlines along the entire circumpolar path, confirming and extending the results of an earlier study restricted to the region south of Australia. The intensity of the fronts (as measured by the cross‐front gradient of SSH) varies along the fronts and the individual branches merge and diverge, often in response to interactions with bathymetry. Maps of absolute velocity at 1000 m depth derived from Argo trajectories confirm the existence of multiple current cores throughout the Southern Ocean. High resolution hydrographic sections and profiles of temperature and salinity from Argo floats are used to show that the front locations derived from fitting SSH contours to maps of SSH gradient are consistent with locations inferred from the traditional criteria based on water mass properties, suitably modified to account for multiple frontal branches. Three regions are examined in detail: the Crozet Plateau, the Kerguelen Plateau and the Scotia Sea. These examples show how recognition of the multiple jets of the ACC can help resolve discrepancies between previous studies of ACC fronts.

The subduction and export of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) supplies the upper limb of the overturning circulation and makes an important contribution to global heat, freshwater, carbon and nutrient budgets1–5. Upper ocean heat content has increased since 2006, helping to explain the so-called global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2014, with much of the ocean warming concentrated in extratropical latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in close association with SAMW and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW)6,7. Here we use Argo observations to assess changes in the thickness, depth and heat content of the SAMW layer. Between 2005 and 2015, SAMW has thickened (3.6 ± 0.3 m yr−1), deepened (2.4 ± 0.2 m yr−1) and warmed (3.9 ± 0.3 W m−2). Wind forcing, rather than buoyancy forcing, is largely responsible for the observed trends in SAMW. Most (84%) of the increase in SAMW heat content is the result of changes in thickness; warming by buoyancy forcing (increased heat flux to the ocean) accounts for the remaining 16%. Projected increases in wind stress curl would drive further deepening of SAMW and increase in heat storage in the Southern Hemisphere oceans.

Dense water formed near Antarctica, known as Antarctic bottom water (AABW), drives deep ocean circulation and supplies oxygen to the abyssal ocean. Observations show that AABW has freshened and contracted since the 1960s, yet the drivers of these changes and their impact remain uncertain. Here, using observations from the Australian Antarctic Basin, we show that AABW transport reduced by 4.0 Sv between 1994 and 2009, during a period of strong freshening on the continental shelf. An increase in shelf water salinity between 2009 and 2018, previously linked to transient climate variability, drove a partial recovery (2.2 Sv) of AABW transport. Over the full period (1994 to 2017), the net slowdown of −0.8 ± 0.5 Sv decade−1 thinned well-oxygenated layers, driving deoxygenation of −3 ± 2 μmol kg−1 decade−1. These findings demonstrate that freshening of Antarctic shelf waters weakens the lower limb of the abyssal overturning circulation and reduces deep ocean oxygen content.Antarctic bottom water (AABW), a key component of ocean circulation, provides oxygen to the deep ocean. This work shows that AABW transport reduced over the past decades in the Australian Antarctic Basin, weakening the abyssal overturning circulation and decreasing deep ocean oxygen.

In Part 1 of this study, we showed that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) consisted of multiple fronts, each of which was consistently associated with a particular contour of sea surface height (SSH) or approximate streamline. In Part 2 we have used maps of SSH to examine the variability of the ACC fronts between 1992 and 2007. The SSH label associated with each frontal branch is nearly constant around the circumpolar belt. The front labels are also nearly constant in time: the bands of enhanced SSH gradient (i.e., fronts) occur along the same streamlines throughout the 15 year period of observations. Both short‐ and long‐period changes of the SSH frontal labels of the ACC are small. Based on a tight relationship between dynamic height and cumulative baroclinic transport of the ACC, the baroclinic transport variability of the individual branches of the ACC is also expected to be small. The major change in the total ACC baroclinic transport occurs in the Drake Passage. The streamline associated with the northern branch of the SAF (SAF‐N) does not pass through Drake Passage and the waters carried by this branch are not observed there. Instead, the transport of the SAF‐N turns north in the Pacific to supply the export of water to the Indian Ocean north and south of Australia. Strong eddy activity in the southeast Pacific acts to dissipate the hydrographic signature of the SAF‐N there. In the Atlantic, the SAF‐N reappears as the same streamline is again associated with enhanced SSH gradients to the east of the Brazil – Malvinas confluence zone. While the large changes in SSH have occurred in the Southern Ocean between 1992 and 2007, there are strong regional differences. Because the ACC fronts are robustly associated with particular SSH contours, the changes in SSH reflect shifts in the position of the ACC fronts. In the circumpolar average, each of the ACC fronts has shifted to the south by about 60 km. The changes in SSH in the Southern Ocean are largely due to changes in ocean circulation, rather than warming and freshening by atmospheric fluxes. Much larger changes in SSH are observed in some locations of the Southern Ocean, particularly where the fronts interact with large‐scale topography. The northern branch of the PF (PF‐N) near the Kerguelen Plateau is an extreme example, where the PF‐N followed a path around the northern end of Kerguelen Plateau between 1992 and 1997, passed through the Fawn Trough after 2003, and oscillated between the two paths between 1997 and 2003.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) supplies the lower limb of the global overturning circulation and ventilates the abyssal ocean. In recent decades, AABW has warmed, freshened and reduced in volume. Ross Sea Bottom Water (RSBW), the second largest source of AABW, has experienced the largest freshening. Here we use 23 years of summer measurements to document temporal variability in the salinity of the Ross Sea High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW), a precursor to RSBW. HSSW salinity decreased between 1995 and 2014, consistent with freshening observed between 1958 and 2008. However, HSSW salinity rebounded sharply after 2014, with values in 2018 similar to those observed in the mid-late 1990s. Near-synchronous interannual fluctuations in salinity observed at five locations on the continental shelf suggest that upstream preconditioning and large-scale forcing influence HSSW salinity. The rate, magnitude and duration of the recent salinity increase are unusual in the context of the (sparse) observational record. Ross Sea Bottom Water, a major source of Antarctic Bottom Water, has experienced significant freshening in recent decades. Here the authors use 23 years of summer measurements to document temporal variability in the salinity of the Ross Sea High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) and found that HSSW salinity decreased between 1995 and 2014 and rebounded sharply after 2014.

The oceans slow the rate of climate change by absorbing about 25% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions annually. The Southern Ocean makes a substantial contribution to this oceanic carbon sink: more than 40% of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the ocean has entered south of 40° S. The rate-limiting step in the oceanic sequestration of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is the transfer of carbon across the base of the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior, a process known as subduction. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for the subduction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide are poorly understood. Here we use observationally based estimates of subduction and anthropogenic carbon concentrations in the Southern Ocean to determine the mechanisms responsible for carbon sequestration. We estimate that net subduction amounts to 0.42 ± 0.2 Pg C yr −1 between 35° S and the marginal sea-ice zone. We show that subduction occurs in specific locations as a result of the interplay of wind-driven Ekman transport, eddy fluxes and variations in mixed-layer depth. The zonal distribution of the estimated subduction is consistent with the distribution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the ocean interior. We conclude that oceanic carbon sequestration depends on physical properties, such as mixed-layer depth, ocean currents, wind and eddies, which are potentially sensitive to climate variability and change. The Southern Ocean makes a substantial contribution to the oceanic carbon sink. Observationally based estimates of carbon subduction suggest that carbon sequestration depends on physical properties, such as mixed layer depth, ocean currents, wind and eddies, that are potentially sensitive to climate variability and change.

Although environmental selection and spatial separation have been shown to shape the distribution and abundance of marine microorganisms, the effects of advection (physical transport) have not been directly tested. Here we examine 25 samples covering all major water masses of the Southern Ocean to determine the effects of advection on microbial biogeography. Even when environmental factors and spatial separation are controlled for, there is a positive correlation between advection distance and taxonomic dissimilarity, indicating that an ‘advection effect’ has a role in shaping marine microbial community composition. This effect is likely due to the advection of cells increasing the probability that upstream microorganisms will colonize downstream sites. Our study shows that in addition to distance and environmental selection, advection shapes the composition of marine microbial communities. Environmental factors and distance are known to influence the structure of marine microbial communities. Using a data set spanning the Southern Ocean, Wilkins et al. now demonstrate that fluid transport (advection) is another important factor involved in shaping the marine microbial ecosystem.

The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica, with an ice volume equivalent to >3.5 m of global sea-level rise, is grounded below sea level and, therefore, vulnerable to ocean forcing. Here, we use bathymetric and oceanographic observations from previously unsampled parts of the Totten continental shelf to reveal on-shelf warm water pathways defined by deep topographic features. Access of warm water to the Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) cavity is facilitated by a deep shelf break, a broad and deep depression on the shelf, a cyclonic circulation that carries warm water to the inner shelf, and deep troughs that provide direct access to the TIS cavity. The temperature of the warmest water reaching the TIS cavity varies by ~0.8 °C on an interannual timescale. Numerical simulations constrained by the updated bathymetry demonstrate that the deep troughs play a critical role in regulating ocean heat transport to the TIS cavity and the subsequent basal melt of the ice shelf. The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is grounded below sea level and vulnerable to ocean forcing. Observations and simulations demonstrate warm water access from offshore to the glacier, facilitated by deep topography off the Sabrina Coast.