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In longitudinal studies it is often of interest to investigate how a marker that is repeatedly measured in time is associated with a time to an event of interest. This type of research question has given rise to a rapidly developing field of biostatistics research that deals with the joint modeling of longitudinal and time‐to‐event data. In this article, we consider this modeling framework and focus particularly on the assessment of the predictive ability of the longitudinal marker for the time‐to‐event outcome. In particular, we start by presenting how survival probabilities can be estimated for future subjects based on their available longitudinal measurements and a fitted joint model. Following we derive accuracy measures under the joint modeling framework and assess how well the marker is capable of discriminating between subjects who experience the event within a medically meaningful time frame from subjects who do not. We illustrate our proposals on a real data set on human immunodeficiency virus infected patients for which we are interested in predicting the time‐to‐death using their longitudinal CD4 cell count measurements.

Purpose Mucolipidosis (ML) II, MLIII alpha/beta, and MLIII gamma are rare autosomal recessive lysosomal storage disorders. Data on the natural course of the diseases are scarce. These data are important for counseling, therapies development, and improvement of outcome. The aim of this study is to gain knowledge on the natural history of ML by obtaining data on survival, symptom onset, presenting symptoms, diagnosis, and pathogenic variants associated with the MLII or MLIII phenotype. Methods A systematic review on all published MLII and MLIII cases between 1968 and August 2019 was performed. Results Three hundred one articles provided data on 843 patients. Median age at diagnosis: 0.7 for MLII and 9.0 years for MLIII. Median survival: 5.0 for MLII and 62.0 years for MLIIIII. Median age of death: 1.8 for MLII and 33.0 years for MLIII. Most frequent causes of death in all ML were pulmonary and/or cardiac complications. Pathogenic variants were described in 388 patients ( GNPTAB: 571, GNPTG 179). Conclusion This review provides unique insights into the natural history of MLII and MLIII, with a clear genotype–phenotype correlation with the most frequent pathogenic variant c.3503_3504del in MLII and in MLIII alpha/beta c.22A>G for GNPTAB . All pathogenic GNPTG variants resulted in MLIII gamma.

The aim of our observational study was to derive a small set out of 92 repeatedly measured biomarkers with optimal predictive capacity for adverse clinical events in heart failure, which could be used for dynamic, individual risk assessment in clinical practice. In 250 chronic HFrEF (CHF) patients, we collected trimonthly blood samples during a median of 2.2 years. We selected 537 samples for repeated measurement of 92 biomarkers with the Cardiovascular Panel III (Olink Proteomics AB). We applied Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalization to select the optimal set of predictors of the primary endpoint (PE). The association between repeatedly measured levels of selected biomarkers and the PE was evaluated by multivariable joint models (mvJM) with stratified fivefold cross validation of the area under the curve (cvAUC). The PE occurred in 66(27%) patients. The optimal set of biomarkers selected by LASSO included 9 proteins: NT-proBNP, ST2, vWF, FABP4, IGFBP-1, PAI-1, PON-3, transferrin receptor protein-1, and chitotriosidase-1, that yielded a cvAUC of 0.88, outperforming the discriminative ability of models consisting of standard biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, eGFR clinically adjusted) − 0.82 and performing equally well as an extended literature-based set of acknowledged biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, hs-CRP, GDF-15, ST2, PAI-1, Galectin 3) − 0.88. Nine out of 92 serially measured circulating proteins provided a multivariable model for adverse clinical events in CHF patients with high discriminative ability. These proteins reflect wall stress, remodelling, endothelial dysfunction, iron deficiency, haemostasis/fibrinolysis and innate immunity activation. A panel containing these proteins could contribute to dynamic, personalized risk assessment. Clinical Trial Registration: 10/05/2013 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538?term=nCT01851538&draw=2&rank=1 .

Heart failure (HF) is a severe potential complication of myocardial infarction(MI). However precise mechanisms underlying progression from MI to HF are not yet fully understood. Exploring how plasma proteomic profiles of post-MI patients relate to cardiac function during follow-up can give insights into pathophysiological processes that contribute to HF development. We measured 4587 circulating proteins in 246 patients hospitalized for a first anterior Q-wave MI at 1, 3 and 12 months post-MI. Echocardiographic measurements of left-ventricular (LV) end-diastolic volume (EDV), LV ejection fraction (EF), and left atrial volume (AV), were assessed at hospital discharge, 3, and 12 months. Associations between protein and echocardiographic variables were assessed using pair-wise multivariate linear mixed-effects models. Median (IQR) age was 56 (46, 69) years, and 19% were women. Twenty-eight proteins were associated with LVEDV (linked to cardiac remodeling, vascular dysfunction, oxidative stress), twelve with AV (coronary artery disease, atherosclerosis, immune system), and eight with LVEF (cardiac hypertrophy, fibrosis, inflammation). Trajectories of all three echocardiographic variables were associated with NT-proBNP and BNP. Our results give an overview of the most important mechanisms related to the deterioration of cardiac function after MI, with cardiac stress, cardiac remodeling, vascular dysfunction, and inflammation emerging as central mechanisms.

Infliximab (IFX) is administered intravenously using weight-based dosing (5 mg/kg) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Our hypothesis is that especially young children need a more intensive treatment regimen than the current weight-based dose administration. We aimed to assess IFX pharmacokinetics (PK), based on existing therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data in IBD patients < 10 years. TDM data were collected retrospectively in 14 centres. Children treated with IFX were included if IFX was started as IBD treatment at age < 10 years (young patients, YP) and PK data were available. Older IBD patients aged 10–18 years were used as controls (older patients, OP). Two hundred and fifteen paediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) patients were eligible for the study (110 < 10 year; 105 ≥ 10 years). Median age was 8.3 years (IQR 6.9–8.9) in YP compared with 14.3 years (IQR 12.8–15.6) in OP at the start of IFX. At the start of maintenance treatment, 72% of YP had trough levels below therapeutic range (< 5.4 μg/mL). After 1 year of scheduled IFX maintenance treatment, YP required a significantly higher dose per 8 weeks compared with OP (YP; 9.0 mg/kg (IQR 5.0–12.9) vs. OP; 5.5 mg/kg (IQR 5.0–9.3); p < 0.001). The chance to develop antibodies to infliximab was relatively lower in OP than YP (0.329 (95% CI − 1.2 to − 1.01); p < 0.001), while the overall duration of response to IFX was not significantly different (after 2 years 53% (n = 29) in YP vs. 58% (n = 45) in OP; p = 0.56).Conclusion: Intensification of the induction scheme is suggested for PIBD patients aged < 10 years.What is Known?•Infliximab trough levels of paediatric IBD patients are influenced by several factors as dosing scheme, antibodies and inflammatory markers.•In 4.5–30% of the paediatric IBD patients, infliximab treatment was stopped within the first year.What is New?•The majority of young PIBD (< 10 years) have inadequate IFX trough levels at the start of maintenance treatment.•Young PIBD patients (< 10 years) were in need of a more intensive treatment regimen compared with older paediatric patients during 1 year of IFX treatment.•The chance to develop antibodies to infliximab was relatively higher in young PIBD patients (< 10 years).

Background Immunity has been suggested to be important in the pathogenesis of dementia. However, the contribution of innate versus adaptive immunity in the development of dementia is not clear. In this study, we aimed to investigate (1) the association between components of innate immunity (granulocytes and platelets) and adaptive immunity (lymphocytes) with risk of dementia and (2) the association between their derived ratios (granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio [GLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], and systemic immune-inflammation index [SII]), reflecting the balance between innate and adaptive immunity, with risk of dementia. Methods Blood cell counts were measured repeatedly between 2002 and 2015 in dementia-free participants of the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Participants were followed-up for dementia until 1 January 2016. Joint models were used to determine the association between granulocyte, platelets, and lymphocyte counts, and their derived ratios with risk of dementia. Results Of the 8313 participants (mean [standard deviation] age 61.1 [7.4] years, 56.9% women), 664 (8.0%) developed dementia during a median follow-up of 8.6 years. Doubling of granulocyte and platelet counts tended to be associated with an increased risk of dementia (HR [95%CI] 1.22 [0.89–1.67] and 1.45 [1.07–1.95], respectively). Doubling of the derived ratios GLR, PLR, and SII were all associated with an increased dementia risk (HR [95%CI] 1.26 [1.03–1.53], 1.27 [1.05–1.53], and 1.15 [0.98–1.34], respectively). Conclusions GLR, PLR, and SII are associated with an increased risk of dementia in the general population. This supports the role of an imbalance in the immune system towards innate immunity in the pathogenesis of dementia.

A digital twin (DT), originally defined as a virtual representation of a physical asset, system, or process, is a new concept in health care. A DT in health care is not a single technology but a domain-adapted multimodal modeling approach incorporating the acquisition, management, analysis, prediction, and interpretation of data, aiming to improve medical decision-making. However, there are many challenges and barriers that must be overcome before a DT can be used in health care. In this viewpoint paper, we build on the current literature, address these challenges, and describe a dynamic DT in health care for optimizing individual patient health care journeys, specifically for women at risk for cardiovascular complications in the preconception and pregnancy periods and across the life course. We describe how we can commit multiple domains to developing this DT. With our cross-domain definition of the DT, we aim to define future goals, trade-offs, and methods that will guide the development of the dynamic DT and implementation strategies in health care.

Background HRV has mostly shown associations with systolic dysfunction and more recently, with diastolic dysfunction in Heart failure (HF) patients. But the role of sympathetic nervous system in changes of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and new-onset HF has not been extensively studied. Methods Among 3157 men and 4405 women free of HF and atrial fibrillation retrospectively included from the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used linear mixed models to examine associations of RR-interval differences and standard deviation of RR-intervals corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc and SDNNc) with longitudinal changes of LV ejection fraction (LVEF), E/A ratio, left atrial (LA) diameter, E/e’ ratio. Afterwards, using cox regressions, we examined their association with new-onset HF. Results Mean (SD) age was 65 (9.95) in men and 65.7 (10.2) in women. Every unit increase in log RMSSDc was accompanied by 0.75% (95%CI:-1.11%;-0.39%) and 0.31% (− 0.60%;-0.01%) lower LVEF among men and women each year, respectively. Higher log RMSSDc was linked to 0.03 (− 0.04;-0.01) and 0.02 (− 0.03;-0.003) lower E/A and also − 1.76 (− 2.77;− 0.75) and − 1.18 (− 1.99;-0.38) lower LVM index in both sexes and 0.72 mm (95% CI: − 1.20;-0.25) smaller LA diameters in women. The associations with LVEF in women diminished after excluding HF cases during the first 3 years of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident HF were 1.34 (1.08;1.65) for log RMSSDc in men and 1.15 (0.93;1.42) in women. SDNNc showed similar associations. Conclusions Indices of HRV were associated with worse systolic function in men but mainly with improvement in LA size in women. Higher HRV was associated with higher risk of new-onset HF in men. Our findings highlight potential sex differences in autonomic function underlying cardiac dysfunction and heart failure in the general population.

Background The association structure linking the longitudinal and survival sub-models is of fundamental importance in the joint modeling framework and the choice of this structure should be made based on the clinical background of the study. However, this information may not always be accessible and rationale for selecting this association structure has received relatively little attention in the literature. To this end, we aim to explore four alternative functional forms of the association structure between the CD4 count and the risk of death and provide rationale for selecting the optimal association structure for our data. We also aim to compare the results obtained from the joint model to those obtained from the time-varying Cox model. Methods We used data from the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) AIDS Treatment programme, the Starting Antiretroviral Therapy at Three Points in Tuberculosis (SAPiT) study, an open-label, three armed randomised, controlled trial between June 2005 and July 2010 (N=642). In our analysis, we combined the early and late integrated arms and compared results to the sequential arm. We utilized the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) to select the final model with the best structure, with smaller values indicating better model adjustments to the data. Results Patient characteristics were similar across the study arms. Combined integrated therapy arms had a reduction of 55% in mortality (HR:0.45, 95% CI:0.28-0.72) compared to the sequential therapy arm. The joint model with a cumulative effects functional form was chosen as the best association structure. In particular, our joint model found that the area under the longitudinal profile of CD4 count was strongly associated with a 21% reduction in mortality (HR:0.79, 95% CI:0.72-0.86). Where as results from the time-varying Cox model showed a 19% reduction in mortality (HR:0.81, 95% CI:0.77-0.84). Conclusions In this paper we have shown that the “current value” association structure is not always the best structure that expresses the correct relationship between the outcomes in all settings, which is why it is crucial to explore alternative clinically meaningful association structures that links the longitudinal and survival processes.

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of model has been to obtain individualized predictions of survival probabilities and/or of future longitudinal responses. The advantageous feature of these predictions is that they are dynamically updated as extra longitudinal responses are collected for the subjects of interest, providing real time risk assessment using all recorded information. The aim of this article is two-fold. First, to highlight the importance of modeling the association structure between the longitudinal and event time responses that can greatly influence the derived predictions, and second, to illustrate how we can improve the accuracy of the derived predictions by suitably combining joint models with different association structures. The second goal is achieved using Bayesian model averaging, which, in this setting, has the very intriguing feature that the model weights are not fixed but they are rather subject- and time-dependent, implying that at different follow-up times predictions for the same subject may be based on different models. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.