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Belarus : the Bradt travel guide
This new, thoroughly updated edition of Bradt's Belarus remains the only full-blown standalone guide to the most westerly of the constituent republics that formed the Soviet Union prior to the break-up in 1991. Written and updated by expert author and Russian speaker Nigel Roberts, who has been travelling throughout the country for over 16 years, it is the definitive guide to understanding, and making the most of a visit to this much-misunderstood nation. Included in this new edition is a detailed focus on the capital city Minsk, the most likely destination for first-time travellers and now becoming a major European capital city thanks to an easing of visa regulations, as well as coverage of each of the other five cities and all six regions. Roberts draws on his years of experience and shares many stories and vignettes of his own adventures and experiences of everyday life, all of which help to bring the destination to life. In addition, there are recommendations and tips from his wide circle of contacts, including people at all levels of the tourism industry, charities working on the ground, local people and travellers from abroad, who regularly share details of up-to-the-minute information, changes and developments. With Bradt's Belarus enjoy the opportunity to put the cliche to the test; only ever described by Western media as 'the last dictatorship in Europe', travellers certainly do have the opportunity to experience elements of life as it was lived in the days of the Soviet Union but can also see beyond the cliche as Belarus seeks to free itself from the Soviet past and establish its own heritage and place in the modern world. Discover beautifully preserved and restored museum towns such as Mir, Njasvizh, Novogrudok, Pinsk and Polotsk; see Soviet-style brutalist and modernist architecture; explore accessible national parks and vast areas of unspoilt wilderness, with ample opportunity to study flora and fauna; visit historic palaces and castles stunningly restored; and enjoy the unconditional hospitality of a people who are anxious to interact with visitors from the English-speaking world.
Book
Realism of Rainfall in a Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Model
The realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in representing the underlying processes. In particular, if rainfall is more realistic in a climate model, there is greater confidence in its projections of future change.
In this study, the realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution (1.5 km) regional climate model (RCM) is compared to a coarser-resolution 12-km RCM. This is the first time a convection-permitting model has been run for an extended period (1989–2008) over a region of the United Kingdom, allowing the characteristics of rainfall to be evaluated in a climatological sense. In particular, the duration and spatial extent of hourly rainfall across the southern United Kingdom is examined, with a key focus on heavy rainfall.
Rainfall in the 1.5-km RCM is found to be much more realistic than in the 12-km RCM. In the 12-km RCM, heavy rain events are not heavy enough, and tend to be too persistent and widespread. While the 1.5-km model does have a tendency for heavy rain to be too intense, it still gives a much better representation of its duration and spatial extent. Long-standing problems in climate models, such as the tendency for too much persistent light rain and errors in the diurnal cycle, are also considerably reduced in the 1.5-km RCM. Biases in the 12-km RCM appear to be linked to deficiencies in the representation of convection.
Journal Article
Windsor Castle : a thousand years of a royal palace
\"As England's largest castle and premier royal residence, Windsor Castle is of outstanding importance: historically, architecturally, artistically and in the life of the nation. This authoritative history of the Castle, the first to be published in 100 years, draws upon new research and primary sources to present a general account of Windsor Castle and its immediate environs from around AD700 to the present day, setting this iconic building against the background of wider social, political and cultural events in the life of the monarchy and the nation. Not only is the book richly illustrated with historical drawings, watercolours and photographs from the Royal Collection and elsewhere, it also includes newly commissioned photography and 3D reconstructions of the Castle at key points in its development, showing how this historic site has changed and evolved over 13 centuries\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective Events
The development of NWP models with grid spacing down to ∼1 km should produce more realistic forecasts of convective storms. However, greater realism does not necessarily mean more accurate precipitation forecasts. The rapid growth of errors on small scales in conjunction with preexisting errors on larger scales may limit the usefulness of such models. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether improved model resolution alone is able to produce more skillful precipitation forecasts on useful scales, and how the skill varies with spatial scale. A verification method will be described in which skill is determined from a comparison of rainfall forecasts with radar using fractional coverage over different sized areas. The Met Office Unified Model was run with grid spacings of 12, 4, and 1 km for 10 days in which convection occurred during the summers of 2003 and 2004. All forecasts were run from 12-km initial states for a clean comparison. The results show that the 1-km model was the most skillful over all but the smallest scales (approximately <10–15 km). A measure of acceptable skill was defined; this was attained by the 1-km model at scales around 40–70 km, some 10–20 km less than that of the 12-km model. The biggest improvement occurred for heavier, more localized rain, despite it being more difficult to predict. The 4-km model did not improve much on the 12-km model because of the difficulties of representing convection at that resolution, which was accentuated by the spinup from 12-km fields.
Journal Article
Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model
Changes in precipitation extremes are occurring under climate change, but how they will manifest on sub-daily timescales is uncertain. This study used a high-resolution model, typically used for weather forecasting, to simulate hourly rainfall in the UK in the year 2100. The results confirmed previous findings of winter rainfall intensification and found that short-duration rainfall intensified in summer, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
The intensification of precipitation extremes with climate change
1
is of key importance to society as a result of the large impact through flooding. Observations show that heavy rainfall is increasing on daily timescales in many regions
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, but how changes will manifest themselves on sub-daily timescales remains highly uncertain. Here we perform the first climate change experiments with a very high resolution (1.5 km grid spacing) model more typically used for weather forecasting, in this instance for a region of the UK. The model simulates realistic hourly rainfall characteristics, including extremes
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,
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, unlike coarser resolution climate models
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,
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, giving us confidence in its ability to project future changes at this timescale. We find the 1.5 km model shows increases in hourly rainfall intensities in winter, consistent with projections from a coarser 12 km resolution model and previous studies at the daily timescale
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. However, the 1.5 km model also shows a future intensification of short-duration rain in summer, with significantly more events exceeding the high thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding. We conclude that accurate representation of the local storm dynamics is an essential requirement for predicting changes to convective extremes; when included we find for the model here that summer downpours intensify with warming.
Journal Article
DO CONVECTION-PERMITTING REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IMPROVE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE PRECIPITATION CHANGE?
Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.
Journal Article
Multiplexed analysis of chromosome conformation at vastly improved sensitivity
Pooling barcoded 3C libraries and simultaneously capturing interactions at many loci of interest generates reproducible
cis
- and
trans
-interaction maps at high resolution from low amounts of input material. This allows for the comparison of interactions in different cell types using common software designed for differential analysis of sequence count data, rather than requiring software specifically designed for 3C experiments.
Methods for analyzing chromosome conformation in mammalian cells are either low resolution or low throughput and are technically challenging. In next-generation (NG) Capture-C, we have redesigned the Capture-C method to achieve unprecedented levels of sensitivity and reproducibility. NG Capture-C can be used to analyze many genetic loci and samples simultaneously. High-resolution data can be produced with as few as 100,000 cells, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms can be used to generate allele-specific tracks. The method is straightforward to perform and should greatly facilitate the investigation of many questions related to gene regulation as well as the functional dissection of traits examined in genome-wide association studies.
Journal Article
Statistical Postprocessing for Weather Forecasts
Statistical postprocessing techniques are nowadays key components of the forecasting suites in many national meteorological services (NMS), with, for most of them, the objective of correcting the impact of different types of errors on the forecasts. The final aim is to provide optimal, automated, seamless forecasts for end users. Many techniques are now flourishing in the statistical, meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and engineering communities. The methods range in complexity from simple bias corrections to very sophisticated distribution-adjusting techniques that incorporate correlations among the prognostic variables. The paper is an attempt to summarize the main activities going on in this area from theoretical developments to operational applications, with a focus on the current challenges and potential avenues in the field. Among these challenges is the shift in NMS toward running ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at the kilometer scale that produce very large datasets and require high-density high-quality observations, the necessity to preserve space-time correlation of high-dimensional corrected fields, the need to reduce the impact of model changes affecting the parameters of the corrections, the necessity for techniques to merge different types of forecasts and ensembles with different behaviors, and finally the ability to transfer research on statistical postprocessing to operations. Potential new avenues are also discussed.
Journal Article
The Value of High-Resolution Met Office Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of Multihourly Precipitation Extremes
Extreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km simulation has weaker June–August (JJA) short-return-period return levels than the 1.5-km RCM, yet the 12-km RCM has overly large high return levels. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1.5-km RCM is more successful than the 12-km RCM in representing (multi)hourly JJA very extreme events. As accumulation periods increase toward daily time scales, the erroneous 12-km precipitation extremes become more comparable with the observations and the 1.5-km RCM. The 12-km RCM fails to capture the observed low sensitivity of the growth rate to accumulation period changes, which is successfully captured by the 1.5-km RCM. Both simulations have comparable December–February (DJF) extremes, but the DJF extremes are generally weaker than in JJA at daily or shorter time scales. Case studies indicate that “gridpoint storms” are one of the causes of unrealistic very extreme events in the 12-km RCM. Caution is needed in interpreting the realism of 12-km RCM JJA extremes, including short-return-period events, which have return values closer to observations. There is clear evidence that the 1.5-km RCM has a higher degree of realism than the 12-km RCM in the simulation of JJA extremes.
Journal Article
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods: Identifying Skillful Spatial Scales Using the Fractions Skill Score
The fractions skill score (FSS) was one of the measures that formed part of the Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods project. The FSS was used to assess a common dataset that consisted of real and perturbed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model precipitation forecasts, as well as geometric cases. These datasets are all based on the NCEP 240 grid, which translates to approximately 4-km resolution over the contiguous United States. The geometric cases showed that the FSS can provide a truthful assessment of displacement errors and forecast skill. In addition, the FSS can be used to determine the scale at which an acceptable level of skill is reached and this usage is perhaps more helpful than interpreting the actual FSS value. This spatial-scale approach is becoming more popular for monitoring operational forecast performance. The study also shows how the FSS responds to forecast bias. A more biased forecast always gives lower FSS values at large scales and usually at smaller scales. It is possible, however, for a more biased forecast to give a higher score at smaller scales, when additional rain overlaps the observed rain. However, given a sufficiently large sample of forecasts, a more biased forecast system will score lower. The use of percentile thresholds can remove the impacts of the bias. When the proportion of the domain that is “wet” (the wet-area ratio) is small, subtle differences introduced through near-threshold misses can lead to large changes in FSS magnitude in individual cases (primarily because the bias is changed). Reliable statistics for small wet-area ratios require a larger sample of forecasts. Care needs to be taken in the choice of verification domain. For high-resolution models, the domain should be large enough to encompass the length scale of the typical mesoscale forcing (e.g., upper-level troughs or squall lines). If the domain is too large, the wet-area ratios will always be small. If the domain is too small, fluctuations in the wet-area ratio can be large and larger spatial errors may be missed. The FSS is a good measure of the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts. Different methods are needed to determine other patterns of behavior.
Journal Article