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"Robertson, Richard"
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Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production
Wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) is the most widely grown food crop in the world threatened by future climate change. In this study, we simulated climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for wheat globally using new crop genetic traits (CGT), including increased heat tolerance, early vigor to increase early crop water use, late flowering to reverse an earlier anthesis in warmer conditions, and the combined traits with additional nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications, as an option to maximize genetic gains. These simulations were completed using three wheat crop models and five Global Climate Models (GCM) for RCP 8.5 at mid-century. Crop simulations were compared with country, US state, and US county grain yield and production. Wheat yield and production from high-yielding and low-yielding countries were mostly captured by the model ensemble mean. However, US state and county yields and production were often poorly reproduced, with large variability in the models, which is likely due to poor soil and crop management input data at this scale. Climate change is projected to decrease global wheat production by −1.9% by mid-century. However, the most negative impacts are projected to affect developing countries in tropical regions. The model ensemble mean suggests large negative yield impacts for African and Southern Asian countries where food security is already a problem. Yields are predicted to decline by −15% in African countries and −16% in Southern Asian countries by 2050. Introducing CGT as an adaptation to climate change improved wheat yield in many regions, but due to poor nutrient management, many developing countries only benefited from adaptation from CGT when combined with additional N fertilizer. As growing conditions and the impact from climate change on wheat vary across the globe, region-specific adaptation strategies need to be explored to increase the possible benefits of adaptations to climate change in the future.
Journal Article
Conan : the jewels of Gwahlur and other stories
As Conan seeks the prized Teeth of Gwahlur, he discovers that a former dancing girl is being compelled to posing as a long-dead oracle. Can he use this knowledge to outfox his opponents on the hunt for the jewels? Plus, in more action-packed tales, a king's daughter is kidnapped by a sorcerer - and only Conan and the girl's sister can save her! And, intrigued by a leader known as the \"Mad King of Gaul,\" Conan joins his army - but when tragedy strikes, will Conan be worthy to wear the crown?
Book
Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion
The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.
Journal Article
Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.
Journal Article
Use of labeled tomato lectin for imaging vasculature structures
Intravascular injections of fluorescent or biotinylated tomato lectin were tested to study labeling of vascular elements in laboratory mice. Injections of
Lycopersicon esculentum
agglutinin (tomato lectin) (50–100 µg/100 µl) were made intravascularly, through the tail vein, through a cannula implanted in the jugular vein, or directly into the left ventricle of the heart. Tissues cut for thin 10- to 12-µm cryostat sections, or thick 50- to 100-µm vibratome sections, were examined using fluorescence microscopy. Tissue labeled by biotinylated lectin was examined by bright field microscopy or electron microscopy after tissue processing for biotin. Intravascular injections of tomato lectin led to labeling of vascular structures in a variety of tissues, including brain, kidney, liver, intestine, spleen, skin, skeletal and cardiac muscle, and experimental tumors. Analyses of fluorescence in serum indicated the lectin was cleared from circulating blood within 2 min. Capillary labeling was apparent in tissues collected from animals within 1 min of intravascular injections, remained robust for about 1 h, and then declined markedly until difficult to detect 12 h after injection. Light microscopic images suggest the lectin bound to the endothelial cells that form capillaries and endothelial cells that line some larger vessels. Electron microscopic studies confirmed the labeling of luminal surfaces of endothelial cells. Vascular labeling by tomato lectin is compatible with a variety of other morphological labeling techniques, including histochemistry and immunocytochemistry, and thus appears to be a sensitive and useful method to reveal vascular patterns in relationship to other aspects of parenchymal development, structure, and function.
Journal Article
Ionizing radiation from computed tomography versus anesthesia for magnetic resonance imaging in infants and children: patient safety considerations
In the context of health care, risk assessment is the identification, evaluation and estimation of risk related to a particular clinical situation or intervention compared to accepted medical practice standards. The goal of risk assessment is to determine an acceptable level of risk for a given clinical treatment or intervention in association with the provided clinical circumstances for a patient or group of patients. In spite of the inherent challenges related to risk assessment in pediatric cross-sectional imaging, the potential risks of ionizing radiation and sedation/anesthesia in the pediatric population are thought to be quite small. Nevertheless both issues continue to be topics of discussion concerning risk and generate significant anxiety and concern for patients, parents and practicing pediatricians. Recent advances in CT technology allow for more rapid imaging with substantially lower radiation exposures, obviating the need for anesthesia for many indications and potentially mitigating concerns related to radiation exposure. In this review, we compare and contrast the potential risks of CT without anesthesia against the potential risks of MRI with anesthesia, and discuss the implications of this analysis on exam selection, providing specific examples related to neuroblastoma surveillance imaging.
Journal Article
Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change
Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased.The authors estimate the global vulnerability of wheat crops to wheat blast under current and future climates. They show that warmer, more humid climates can increase wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, subsequently reducing global wheat production.
Journal Article
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
Journal Article
Magma evolution beneath Bequia, Lesser Antilles, deduced from petrology of lavas and plutonic xenoliths
Extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks represent different parts of a magmatic system and ultimately provide complementary information about the processes operating beneath volcanoes. To shed light on such processes, we have examined and quantified the textures and mineral compositions of plutonic and cumulate xenoliths and lavas from Bequia, Lesser Antilles arc. Both suites contain assemblages of iddingsitized olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and spinel with rare orthopyroxene and ilmenite. Mineral zoning is widespread, but more protracted in lavas than xenoliths. Plagioclase cores and olivine have high anorthite (An ≤ 98) and low forsterite (Fo ≤ 84) compositions respectively, implying crystallisation from a hydrous mafic melt that was already fractionated. Xenolith textures range from adcumulate to orthocumulate with variable mineral crystallisation sequences. Textural criteria are used to organize the xenoliths into six groups. Amphibole, notably absent from lavas, is a common feature of xenoliths, together with minor biotite and apatite. Bulk compositions of xenoliths deviate from the liquid line of descent of lavas supporting a cumulate origin with varying degrees of reactive infiltration by evolved hydrous melts, preserved as melt inclusions in xenolith crystals. Volatile saturation pressures in melt inclusions indicate cumulate crystallization over a 162–571 MPa pressure range under conditions of high dissolved water contents (up to 7.8 wt% H2O), consistent with a variety of other thermobarometric estimates. Phase assemblages of xenoliths are consistent with published experimental data on volatile-saturated low-magnesium and high-alumina basalts and basaltic andesite from the Lesser Antilles at pressures of 200–1000 MPa, temperatures of 950–1050 °C and dissolved H2O contents of 4–7 wt%. Once extracted from mid-crustal mushes, residual melts ascend to higher levels and undergo H2O-saturated crystallization in shallow, pre-eruptive reservoirs to form phenocrysts and glomerocrysts. The absence of amphibole from lavas reflects instability at low pressures, whereas its abundance in xenoliths testifies to its importance in mid-crustal differentiation processes. A complex, vertically extensive (6 to at least 21 km depth) magmatic system is inferred beneath Bequia. Xenoliths represent fragments of the mush incorporated into ascending magmas. The widespread occurrence of evolved melts in the mush, but the absence of erupted evolved magmas, in contrast to islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, may reflect the relative immaturity of the Bequia magmatic system.
Journal Article