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Coral reef ecosystems are among the first to fundamentally change in structure due to climate change, which leads to questioning of whether decades of knowledge regarding reef management is still applicable. Here we assess ecological responses to no-take marine reserves over two decades, spanning a major climate-driven coral bleaching event. Pre-bleaching reserve responses were consistent with a large literature, with higher coral cover, more species of fish, and greater fish biomass, particularly of upper trophic levels. However, in the 16 years following coral mortality, reserve effects were absent for the reef benthos, and greatly diminished for fish species richness. Positive fish biomass effects persisted, but the groups of fish benefiting from marine reserves profoundly changed, with low trophic level herbivores dominating the responses. These findings highlight that while marine reserves still have important roles on coral reefs in the face of climate change, the species and functional groups they benefit will be substantially altered. It is unclear whether rapid climate change will alter the effectiveness of marine reserves. Here Graham et al. use a 20-year time-series from the Seychelles to show that marine reserves may not prevent climate-driven shifts in community composition, and that ecological responses to reserves are substantially altered.

Fish fecundity scales hyperallometrically with body mass, meaning larger females produce disproportionately more eggs than smaller ones. We explore this relationship beyond the species-level to estimate the “reproductive potential” of 1633 coral reef sites distributed globally. We find that, at the site-level, reproductive potential scales hyperallometrically with assemblage biomass, but with a smaller median exponent than at the species-level. Across all families, modelled reproductive potential is greater in fully protected sites versus fished sites. This difference is most pronounced for the important fisheries family, Serranidae. When comparing a scenario where 30% of sites are randomly fully protected to a current protection scenario, we estimate an increase in the reproductive potential of all families, and particularly for Serranidae. Such results point to the possible ecological benefits of the 30 × 30 global conservation target and showcase management options to promote the sustainability of population replenishment. This study estimates the reproductive potential of fish in globally distributed coral reef sites. The results show substantial gains in reproductive potential can be achieved through the 30 × 30 conservation target, particularly for the important fisheries family, Serranidae, demonstrating the possible benefit of protection to population replenishment.

Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already highly dependent on seafood-derived nutrients. At 4 oC of warming, nutrient availability is projected to decline by ~30% by 2100 in low income countries, while at 1.5–2.0 oC warming, decreases are projected to be ~10%. We demonstrate the importance of effective mitigation to support nutritional security of vulnerable nations and global health equity.The authors use fisheries databases and predictive models to understand past and future changes in the availability of iron, calcium omega-3 and protein from seafood. They show disproportional loss of nutrients in tropical low-income countries, which will be exacerbated by higher levels of global warming.

Repeated bouts of coral bleaching threaten the long-term persistence of coral reefs and associated communities. Here, we document the short- and long-term impacts of heatwave events on coral and fish assemblages, based on regular surveys of 18 reefs of the granitic islands of Seychelles over 23 yr. Extreme heat events in 1998 and 2016 led to bleaching-associated declines in coral cover, whilst between these years there was an interim period of coral recovery on some reefs. Coral decline and recovery were primarily due to changes in the cover of branching coral, particularly those from the families Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae. Surveys during the 2016 bleaching found that 95% of the 468 Acropora and Pocillopora colonies observed were either bleached or recently dead. The extent of bleaching and subsequent mortality were best explained by a priori assessments of community susceptibility to heat stress. One year later (2017), coral cover had fallen by 70% and average coverage across the 18 reefs was at 6%, similar to levels recorded in 2005, 7 yr after the 1998 bleaching. Decline in coral following the 2016 bleaching coincided with reduced abundance of fish < 11 cm TL, particularly corallivores, invertivores and mixed diet feeders. These changes are likely to foreshadow more widespread loss once the habitat structure erodes. Accordingly, 7 yr after the 1998 bleaching, when coral skeletons and reef structure had collapsed on some reefs, abundance of both large- and small-bodied fish had declined. We show that fluctuation in the cover of branching coral is positively associated with changes in the abundance of small-bodied fish which contribute to ecological processes and high diversity, suggesting branching corals are a keystone structure. Increased frequency of bleaching threatens the capacity of branching corals to fully recover after disturbances, reducing the amplitude of boom bust cycles of these corals and the keystone habitat structure they provide reef fish.

Tropical coastal communities are highly reliant on coral reefs, which provide nutrition and employment for millions of people. Climate-driven coral bleaching events are fundamentally changing coral reef ecosystems and are predicted to reduce productivity of coral reef fish and fisheries, with significant implications for food security and livelihoods. Yet evidence of long-term bleaching impacts on coral reef fishery productivity is lacking. Here, we analyse over 20 years of fish abundance, catch and habitat data to assess long-term impacts of climate-driven coral mass mortality and regime shifts on nearshore artisanal coral reef fisheries in the Seychelles. Contrary to expectations, total catch and mean catch rates were maintained or increased after coral bleaching, consistent with increasing abundance of herbivorous target species in underwater surveys, particularly on macroalgal-dominated reefs. Catch instability increased as habitats followed divergent post-disturbance trajectories and the distribution of target species became more spatially variable, potentially impacting fisher incomes and local market supply chains. Although coral bleaching increased fishery dependence on herbivore species, our results show that climate-impacted reefs can still provide livelihoods and fish protein for coastal communities. Twenty years of catch data and habitat surveys in coral reef fisheries in the Seychelles reveal that total yields can be maintained after severe bleaching and associated regime shifts, but the stability of fisheries is reduced.

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean. This Perspective discusses potential effects of ocean warming on human nutrition provision from coral reef fish, ranging from altered species compositions of fish populations through to changed fish nutrient profiles resulting from altered metabolism, microbiome composition and trophic interactions.

Seafood is expected to play a key role in improving access to healthy diets while providing food products with relatively low rates of greenhouse gas emissions. However, both nutrients and carbon footprints vary among species and production methods, and seafood consumption is further influenced by price and consumer preference, such that it is unclear which species are best placed to provide low-emissions nutritious seafood. Here, we use seafood production data to assess the nutritional value, carbon emissions, sustainability, affordability, and availability of seafood available to UK consumers. Globally, most seafood products are more nutritious and emit lower greenhouse gases than terrestrial animal-source foods, particularly small pelagic fishes and bivalves that contributed to recommended intakes for 3–4 essential dietary nutrients at the lowest emissions. For seafood products relevant to UK markets and consumers, Atlantic mackerel had the highest availability (i.e. landings) of all wild-caught UK seafood and lowest carbon footprint of all finfish, with one fillet portion exceeding recommended intakes of three nutrients (selenium, vitamins B12 and D). We found that price and sustainability of UK seafood, both factors in consumer demand, had considerable trade-offs with nutrients, carbon footprint, and availability. Farmed salmon, for example, were produced in large volumes but were relatively more expensive than other seafood, whereas highly nutritious, low-emissions farmed mussels had limited production volumes. The UK’s seafood system is therefore not currently optimised to produce nutritious, low-emissions seafood in large amounts. Policies that promote local consumption of affordable species already produced in high volumes, such as mackerel, could improve intakes of nutrients that are deficient in the UK population at relatively low environmental cost.

Aquaculture is expected to play an important role in the transition towards healthy and sustainable diets, requiring dietary changes towards products with lower environmental footprints in ways that address dietary needs. Farmed Atlantic salmon accounts for 2% of global aquaculture, with productivity growth factors, such as research investment, credited with creating a high-value, globalized food commodity. However, its contribution to sustainability and nutrition goals remains unclear, and factors underlying consumer demand, such as marketing work, have been overlooked. We inspect the rise of farmed salmon in the UK, using key stakeholder interviews to understand the role of various actors (e.g. industry, retailers) in ‘making’ farmed salmon markets. Interviewees identified retailer strategies, such as labelling, and consumer-facing promotion efforts, such as health benefits, as key demand-growth factors underlying farmed salmon sales. Using data on UK seafood markets, we assess the views of interviewees, finding that farmed salmon is the most consumed aquatic food; however, it is less popular than other animal-source foods and is primarily consumed by affluent households. Our analyses discuss how market-making efforts by industry and retail actors have shaped consumer demand by promoting salmon as an accessible, nutritious and sustainable product. Accreditation and labelling have helped to develop perceptions of health and sustainability, despite farmed salmon being comparable in nutrient profile to other aquatic foods and having long-standing environmental impacts. Market-making insights could be used to enhance demand for other aquatic foods in ways that target dietary gaps by supplying affordable and sustainable products, such as mussels.

Herbivory is a key process on coral reefs, which, through grazing of algae, can help sustain coral‐dominated states on frequently disturbed reefs and reverse macroalgal regime shifts on degraded ones. Our understanding of herbivory on reefs is largely founded on feeding observations at small spatial scales, yet the biomass and structure of herbivore populations is more closely linked to processes which can be highly variable across large areas, such as benthic habitat turnover and fishing pressure. Though our understanding of spatiotemporal variation in grazer biomass is well developed, equivalent macroscale approaches to understanding bottom‐up and top‐down controls on herbivory are lacking. Here, we integrate underwater survey data of fish abundances from four Indo‐Pacific island regions with herbivore feeding observations to estimate grazing rates for two herbivore functions, cropping (which controls turf algae) and scraping (which promotes coral settlement by clearing benthic substrate), for 72 coral reefs. By including a range of reef states, from coral to algal dominance and heavily fished to remote wilderness areas, we evaluate the influences of benthic habitat and fishing on the grazing rates of fish assemblages. Cropping rates were primarily influenced by benthic condition, with cropping maximized on structurally complex reefs with high substratum availability and low macroalgal cover. Fishing was the primary driver of scraping function, with scraping rates depleted at most reefs relative to remote, unfished reefs, though scraping did increase with substratum availability and structural complexity. Ultimately, benthic and fishing conditions influenced herbivore functioning through their effect on grazer biomass, which was tightly correlated to grazing rates. For a given level of biomass, we show that grazing rates are higher on reefs dominated by small‐bodied fishes, suggesting that grazing pressure is greatest when grazer size structure is truncated. Stressors which cause coral declines and clear substrate for turf algae will likely stimulate increases in cropping rates, in both fished and protected areas. In contrast, scraping functions are already impaired at reefs inhabited by people, particularly where structural complexity has collapsed, indicating that restoration of these key processes will require scraper biomass to be rebuilt towards wilderness levels. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Thermally induced mass coral bleaching is globally responsible for major losses of coral cover. Coral recovery from mass coral disturbances like the 2016 bleaching event hinges on successful recruitment of new coral colonies to the existing population. Juvenile corals as a life history stage represent survival and growth of new recruits. As such, habitat preferences of juvenile corals and how environmental parameters interact to drive coral recovery following a mass bleaching disturbance are important research areas. To expand our knowledge on this topic, we compared juvenile coral densities from before the 2016 bleaching event with those after the disturbance and identified abiotic and biotic characteristics of 21 reefs in the inner Seychelles that predict juvenile coral densities. Our results show that following the 2016 bleaching event, juvenile coral densities were significantly reduced by about 70%, with a particularly large decline in juvenile Acropora. Macroalgae present a large obstacle to survival of juvenile corals in a post-bleaching setting, but their influence varies as a function of herbivore biomass, reef structure, and reef type. Higher biomass of herbivorous fish weakens the negative effect of macroalgae on juvenile corals, and structural complexity on granitic reefs is a strong positive predictor of juvenile coral density. However, structural complexity on carbonate or patch reefs was negatively related to juvenile coral density, highlighting the importance of considering interactive terms in analyses. Our study emphasises the importance of habitat for juvenile coral abundance at both fine and seascape scales, adding to the literature on drivers of reef rebound potential following severe coral bleaching.