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Biodiversity hotspots, representing regions with high species endemism and conservation threat, have been mapped globally. Yet, biodiversity distribution data from within hotspots are too sparse for effective conservation in the face of rapid environmental change. Using frogs as indicators, ecological niche models under paleoclimates, and simultaneous Bayesian analyses of multispecies molecular data, we compare alternative hypotheses of assemblage-scale response to late Quaternary climate change. This reveals a hotspot within the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. We show that the southern Atlantic forest was climatically unstable relative to the central region, which served as a large climatic refugium for neotropical species in the late Pleistocene. This sets new priorities for conservation in Brazil and establishes a validated approach to biodiversity prediction in other understudied, species-rich regions.

The relative influence of Neogene geomorphological events and Quaternary climatic changes as causal mechanisms on Neotropical diversification remains largely speculative, as most divergence timing inferences are based on a single locus and have limited taxonomic or geographic sampling. To investigate these influences, we use a multilocus (two mitochondrial and 11 nuclear genes) range-wide sampling of Phyllopezus pollicaris, a gecko complex widely distributed across the poorly studied South American 'dry diagonal' biomes. Our approach couples traditional and model-based phylogeography with geospatial methods, and demonstrates Miocene diversification and limited influence of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on P. pollicaris. Phylogeographic structure and distribution models highlight that persistence across multiple isolated regions shaped the diversification of this species complex. Approximate Bayesian computation supports hypotheses of allopatric and ecological/sympatric speciation between lineages that largely coincide with genetic clusters associated with Chaco, Cerrado, and Caatinga, standing for complex diversification between the 'dry diagonal' biomes. We recover extremely high genetic diversity and suggest that eight well-supported clades may be valid species, with direct implications for taxonomy and conservation assessments. These patterns exemplify how low-vagility species complexes, characterized by strong genetic structure and pre-Pleistocene divergence histories, represent ideal radiations to investigate broad biogeographic histories of associated biomes.

Background Phylogeographic research has advanced in South America, with increasing efforts on taxa from the dry diagonal biomes. However, the diversification of endemic fauna from the semiarid Caatinga biome in northeastern Brazil is still poorly known. Here we targeted saxicolous lizards of the Tropidurus semitaeniatus species group to better understand the evolutionary history of these endemic taxa and the Caatinga. We estimated a time-calibrated phylogeny for the species group based on two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes and jointly estimated the species limits and species tree within the group. We also devoted a denser phylogeographic sampling of the T. semitaeniatus complex to explore migration patterns, and the spatiotemporal diffusion history to verify a possible role of the São Francisco River as a promoter of differentiation in this saxicolous group of lizards. Results Phylogenetic analysis detected high cryptic genetic diversity, occurrence of unique microendemic lineages associated with older highlands, and a speciation history that took place during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition. Species delimitation detected five evolutionary entities within the T. semitaeniatus species group, albeit with low support. Thus, additional data are needed for a more accurate definition of species limits and interspecific relationships within this group. Spatiotemporal analyses reconstructed the geographic origin of the T. semitaeniatus species complex to be located north of the present-day course of the São Francisco River, followed by dispersal that expanded its distribution towards the northwest and south. Gene flow estimates showed higher migration rates into the lineages located north of the São Francisco River. Conclusions The phylogenetic and population structures are intrinsically associated with stable rock surfaces and landscape rearrangements, such as the establishment of drainage basins located to the northern and southern distribution ranges. The T. semitaeniatus complex preserved high genetic diversity during range expansion, possibly as a result of frequent long-distance dispersal events. Our results indicate that both the current course of the São Francisco River and its paleo-courses had an important role in promoting diversification of the Caatinga endemic T. semitaeniatus species group.

Thermophysiological traits, particularly thermal tolerances and sensitivity, are key to understanding how organisms are affected by environmental conditions. In the face of ongoing climate change, determining how physiological traits structure species’ ranges is especially important in tropical montane systems. In this study, we ask whether thermal sensitivity in physiological performance restricts montane lizards to high elevations and excludes them from the warmer environments reported at low elevations. For three montane lizard species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we collect thermophysiological data from lizards in the highest elevation site of each species’ distribution, and ask how well the individuals exhibiting those traits would perform across the Atlantic Forest. We use microclimatic and organism‐specific models to directly relate environmental conditions to an organism's body temperature and physiological traits, and estimate measures of thermophysiological performance. Our findings demonstrate that thermophysiological constraints do not restrict montane lizards to high elevations in this system, and thus likely do not determine the warm boundaries of these montane species’ distributions. Results also suggest that competition may be important in limiting the warm boundaries of the species’ ranges for two of the focal species. These experimental results suggest that caution should be used when claiming that physiology drives patterns of diversity and endemism within montane environments. They also highlight the importance of interdisciplinary experimental studies that bridge the fields of evolution and ecology to improve predictions of biological responses to future environmental shifts.

Ecological requirements and environmental conditions can influence diversification across temporal and spatial scales. Understanding the role of ecological niche evolution under phylogenetic contexts provides insights on speciation mechanisms and possible responses to future climatic change. Large‐scale phyloclimatic studies on the megadiverse Neotropics, where biomes with contrasting vegetation types occur in narrow contact, are rare. We integrate ecological and biogeographic data with phylogenetic comparative methods, to investigate the relative roles of biogeographic events and niche divergence and conservatism on the diversification of the lizard genus Kentropyx Spix, 1825 (Squamata: Teiidae), distributed in South American rainforests and savannas. Using five molecular markers, we estimated a dated species tree, which recovered three clades coincident with previously proposed species groups diverging during the mid‐Miocene. Biogeography reconstruction indicates a role of successive dispersal events from an ancestral range in the Brazilian Shield and western Amazonia. Ancestral reconstruction of climatic tolerances and niche overlap metrics indicates a trend of conservatism during the diversification of groups from the Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield, and a strong signal of niche divergence in the Brazilian Shield savannas. Our results suggest that climatic‐driven divergence at dynamic forest‐savanna borders might have resulted in adaptation to new environmental niches, promoting habitat shifts and shaping speciation patterns of Neotropical lizards. Dispersal and ecological divergence could have a more important role in Neotropical diversification than previously thought. We integrated ecological and molecular data to investigate the relative roles of biogeographic events and niche evolution on the diversification of a lizard genus distributed in Neotropical rainforests and savannas. Our results suggest that dispersal and ecological divergence could have a more important role in Neotropical diversification than previously thought.

Phylogeographic endemism, the degree to which the history of recently evolved lineages is spatially restricted, reflects fundamental evolutionary processes such as cryptic divergence, adaptation and biological responses to environmental heterogeneity. Attempts to explain the extraordinary diversity of the tropics, which often includes deep phylogeographic structure, frequently invoke interactions of climate variability across space, time and topography. To evaluate historical versus contemporary drivers of phylogeographic endemism in a tropical system, we analyse the effects of current and past climatic variation on the genetic diversity of 25 vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We identify two divergent bioclimatic domains within the forest and high turnover around the Rio Doce. Independent modelling of these domains demonstrates that endemism patterns are subject to different climatic drivers. Past climate dynamics, specifically areas of relative stability, predict phylogeographic endemism in the north. Conversely, contemporary climatic heterogeneity better explains endemism in the south. These results accord with recent speleothem and fossil pollen studies, suggesting that climatic variability through the last 250 kyr impacted the northern and the southern forests differently. Incorporating sub-regional differences in climate dynamics will enhance our ability to understand those processes shaping high phylogeographic and species endemism, in the Neotropics and beyond.

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.

is one of the two genera extracted from the former , which was recently recognized as polyphyletic. is a small clade (five named and two undescribed species) of montane gymnophthalmid lizards and exhibits an exceptional distributional pattern. Its nominal and undescribed species are discontinuously distributed on the Cordillera de la Costa of Venezuela, the tepuis from the Chimantá massif in Venezuela, the highlands of the island of Trinidad, and the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta in Colombia (SNSM). Herein, we describe the species of that is endemic to the SNSM. Historically, this species associates with two names that are currently : and . Formal nomenclatural recognition of renders a permanently unavailable name for this taxon. is the sister of all remaining congeners, and differs primarily from them in having only one pair of genial scales, as well as a unique pattern of scutellation. We provide an identification key to the species of .

The Guiana Shield (GS) is one of the most pristine regions of Amazonia and biologically one of the richest areas on Earth. How and when this massive diversity arose remains the subject of considerable debate. The prevailing hypothesis of Quaternary glacial refugia suggests that a part of the eastern GS, among other areas in Amazonia, served as stable forested refugia during periods of aridity. However, the recently proposed disturbance–vicariance hypothesis proposes that fluctuations in temperature on orbital timescales, with some associated aridity, have driven Neotropical diversification. The expectations of the temporal and spatial organization of biodiversity differ between these two hypotheses. Here, we compare the genetic structure of 12 leaf-litter inhabiting frog species from the GS lowlands using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear sequences in an integrative analytical approach that includes phylogenetic reconstructions, molecular dating, and Geographic Information System methods. This comparative and integrated approach overcomes the well-known limitations of phylogeographic inference based on single species and single loci. All of the focal species exhibit distinct phylogeographic patterns highlighting taxon-specific historical distributions, ecological tolerances to climatic disturbance, and dispersal abilities. Nevertheless, all but one species exhibit a history of fragmentation/isolation within the eastern GS during the Quaternary with spatial and temporal concordance among species. The signature of isolation in northern French Guiana (FG) during the early Pleistocene is particularly clear. Approximate Bayesian Computation supports the synchrony of the divergence between northern FG and other GS lineages. Substructure observed throughout the GS suggests further Quaternary fragmentation and a role for rivers. Our findings support fragmentation of moist tropical forest in the eastern GS during this period when the refuge hypothesis would have the region serving as a contiguous wet-forest refuge.

Aim Present Amazonian diversity patterns can result from many different mechanisms and, consequently, the factors contributing to divergence across regions and/or taxa may differ. Nevertheless, the river‐barrier hypothesis is still widely invoked as a causal process in divergence of Amazonian species. Here we use model‐based phylogeographic analyses to test the extent to which major Amazonian rivers act similarly as barriers across time and space in two broadly distributed Amazonian taxa. Local Amazon rain forest. Taxon The lizard Gonatodes humeralis (Sphaerodactylidae) and the tree frog Dendropsophus leucophyllatus (Hylidae). Methods We obtained RADseq data for samples distributed across main river barriers, representing main Areas of Endemism previously proposed for the region. We conduct model‐based phylogeographic and genetic differentiation analyses across each population pair. Results Measures of genetic differentiation (based on FST calculated from genomic data) show that all rivers are associated with significant genetic differentiation. Parameters estimated under investigated divergence models showed that divergence times for populations separated by each of the 11 bordering rivers were all fairly recent. The degree of differentiation consistently varied between taxa and among rivers, which is not an artifact of any corresponding difference in the genetic diversities of the respective taxa, or to amounts of migration based on analyses of the site‐frequency spectrum. Main conclusions Taken together, our results support a dispersal (rather than vicariance) history, without strong evidence of congruence between these species and rivers. However, once a species crossed a river, populations separated by each and every river have remained isolated—in this sense, rivers act similarly as barriers to any further gene flow. This result suggests differing degrees of persistence and gives rise to the seeming contradiction that the divergence process indeed varies across time, space and species, even though major Amazonian rivers have acted as secondary barriers to gene flow in the focal taxa.