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"Rohde"
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Air Pollution in China: Mapping of Concentrations and Sources
China has recently made available hourly air pollution data from over 1500 sites, including airborne particulate matter (PM), SO2, NO2, and O3. We apply Kriging interpolation to four months of data to derive pollution maps for eastern China. Consistent with prior findings, the greatest pollution occurs in the east, but significant levels are widespread across northern and central China and are not limited to major cities or geologic basins. Sources of pollution are widespread, but are particularly intense in a northeast corridor that extends from near Shanghai to north of Beijing. During our analysis period, 92% of the population of China experienced >120 hours of unhealthy air (US EPA standard), and 38% experienced average concentrations that were unhealthy. China's population-weighted average exposure to PM2.5 was 52 μg/m3. The observed air pollution is calculated to contribute to 1.6 million deaths/year in China [0.7-2.2 million deaths/year at 95% confidence], roughly 17% of all deaths in China.
Journal Article
The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record
A global land–ocean temperature record has been created by combining the Berkeley Earth monthly land temperature field with spatially kriged version of the HadSST3 dataset. This combined product spans the period from 1850 to present and covers the majority of the Earth's surface: approximately 57 % in 1850, 75 % in 1880, 95 % in 1960, and 99.9 % by 2015. It includes average temperatures in 1∘×1∘ lat–long grid cells for each month when available. It provides a global mean temperature record quite similar to records from Hadley's HadCRUT4, NASA's GISTEMP, NOAA's GlobalTemp, and Cowtan and Way and provides a spatially complete and homogeneous temperature field. Two versions of the record are provided, treating areas with sea ice cover as either air temperature over sea ice or sea surface temperature under sea ice, the former being preferred for most applications. The choice of how to assess the temperature of areas with sea ice coverage has a notable impact on global anomalies over past decades due to rapid warming of air temperatures in the Arctic. Accounting for rapid warming of Arctic air suggests ∼ 0.1 ∘C additional global-average temperature rise since the 19th century than temperature series that do not capture the changes in the Arctic. Updated versions of this dataset will be presented each month at the Berkeley Earth website (http://berkeleyearth.org/data/, last access: November 2020), and a convenience copy of the version discussed in this paper has been archived and is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3634713 (Rohde and Hausfather, 2020).
Journal Article
Risk attitudes in a social context
Many experiments have demonstrated that when evaluating payoffs, people take not only their own payoffs into account, but also the payoffs of others in their social environment. Most of this evidence is found in settings where payoffs are riskless. It is plausible that if people care about the payoffs of others, they do so not only in a riskless context, but also in a risky one. This suggests that an individual's decision making under risk depends on the risks others in his or her environment face. This paper is the first to test whether individuals' risk attitudes are affected by the risks others face. The results show that risk attitudes appear to be less affected by others' risks than expected, even though the same subjects do show concerns for inequality in a riskless setting. Interestingly, we find that people prefer risks to be independent across individuals in society rather than correlated.
Journal Article
Beyond war : reimagining American influence in a new Middle East /
\"This book distills eleven years of expert reporting for The New York Times, Reuters, and The Atlantic Monthly into a clarion call for change. An incisive look at the evolving nature of war, Rohde exposes how a dysfunctional Washington squandered billions on contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan, neglected its true allies in the war on terror and failed to employ its most potent nonmilitary weapons: American consumerism, technology, and investment. Rohde then surveys post-Arab Spring Tunisia, Turkey, and Egypt, and finds a yearning for American technology, trade, and education. He argues that only Muslim moderates, not Americans, can eradicate militancy. For readers of Steve Coll, Tom Ricks, and Ahmed Rashid, Beyond War shows how the failed American effort to back moderate Muslims since 9/11 can be salvaged\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Measuring Decreasing and Increasing Impatience
Many studies show that time preference data from experiments and surveys are related to field behavior. Time preference measures in these studies typically depend simultaneously on utility curvature, the level of impatience, and the change in the level of impatience. Thus, these studies do not allow one to establish which of these three components drive(s) the field behavior of interest. Of these components, the change in the level of impatience is theoretically thought to be the main driver of time inconsistencies and self-control problems. To test this theoretical presumption, one has to measure the change in the level of impatience independently from utilities and levels of impatience. This paper introduces a measure of the degree of decreasing impatience, the DI-index. It measures the change of impatience independently from the level of impatience and independently from utility. It can also be used to test various discounting models. An experiment finds no correlation between the degree of decreasing impatience and self-reported self-control problems in daily life, suggesting that changing impatience is not the sole driver of self-control problems.
Data and the supplementary material are available at
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.3015
.
This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.
Journal Article
ESTIMATION OF HIGH-DIMENSIONAL LOW-RANK MATRICES
Suppose that we observe entries or, more generally, linear combinations of entries of an unknown m × T -matrix A corrupted by noise. We are particularly interested in the high-dimensional setting where the number mT of unknown entries can be much larger than the sample size N. Motivated by several applications, we consider estimation of matrix A under the assumption that it has small rank. This can be viewed as dimension reduction or sparsity assumption. In order to shrink toward a low-rank representation, we investigate penalized least squares estimators with a Schatten-p quasinorm penalty term, p ≤ 1. We study these estimators under two possible assumptions—a modified version of the restricted isometry condition and a uniform bound on the ratio \"empirical norm induced by the sampling operator/Frobenius norm.\" The main results are stated as nonasymptotic upper bounds on the prediction risk and on the Schatten-q risk of the estimators, where q ∈ [p, 2]. The rates that we obtain for the prediction risk are of the form rm/N (for m = T), up to logarithmic factors, where r is the rank of A. The particular examples of multi-task learning and matrix completion are worked out in detail. The proofs are based on tools from the theory of empirical processes. As a by-product, we derive bounds for the kth entropy numbers of the quasi-convex Schatten class embeddings $S_{p}^{M}\\hookrightarrow S_{2}^{M}$ , p < 1, which are of independent interest.
Journal Article