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Nomograms are widely used as prognostic devices in oncology and medicine. With the ability to generate an individual probability of a clinical event by integrating diverse prognostic and determinant variables, nomograms meet our desire for biologically and clinically integrated models and fulfill our drive towards personalised medicine. Rapid computation through user-friendly digital interfaces, together with increased accuracy, and more easily understood prognoses compared with conventional staging, allow for seamless incorporation of nomogram-derived prognosis to aid clinical decision making. This has led to the appearance of many nomograms on the internet and in medical journals, and an increase in nomogram use by patients and physicians alike. However, the statistical foundations of nomogram construction, their precise interpretation, and evidence supporting their use are generally misunderstood. This issue is leading to an under-appreciation of the inherent uncertainties regarding nomogram use. We provide a systematic, practical approach to evaluating and comprehending nomogram-derived prognoses, with particular emphasis on clarifying common misconceptions and highlighting limitations.

Group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2s) regulate inflammation and immunity in mammalian tissues 1 , 2 . Although ILC2s are found in cancers of these tissues 3 , their roles in cancer immunity and immunotherapy are unclear. Here we show that ILC2s infiltrate pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs) to activate tissue-specific tumour immunity. Interleukin-33 (IL33) activates tumour ILC2s (TILC2s) and CD8 + T cells in orthotopic pancreatic tumours but not heterotopic skin tumours in mice to restrict pancreas-specific tumour growth. Resting and activated TILC2s express the inhibitory checkpoint receptor PD-1. Antibody-mediated PD-1 blockade relieves ILC2 cell-intrinsic PD-1 inhibition to expand TILC2s, augment anti-tumour immunity, and enhance tumour control, identifying activated TILC2s as targets of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. Finally, both PD-1 + TILC2s and PD-1 + T cells are present in most human PDACs. Our results identify ILC2s as anti-cancer immune cells for PDAC immunotherapy. More broadly, ILC2s emerge as tissue-specific enhancers of cancer immunity that amplify the efficacy of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. As ILC2s and T cells co-exist in human cancers and share stimulatory and inhibitory pathways, immunotherapeutic strategies to collectively target anti-cancer ILC2s and T cells may be broadly applicable. Tumour-infiltrating group 2 innate lymphoid cells prime CD8 + T cells and amplify the anti-tumour effects of PD-1 blockade in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BackgroundPancreatic cancer is a highly lethal cancer with no established a priori markers of survival. Existing nomograms rely mainly on post-resection data and are of limited utility in directing surgical management. This study investigated the use of quantitative computed tomography (CT) features to preoperatively assess survival for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients.MethodsA prospectively maintained database identified consecutive chemotherapy-naive patients with CT angiography and resected PDAC between 2009 and 2012. Variation in CT enhancement patterns was extracted from the tumor region using texture analysis, a quantitative image analysis tool previously described in the literature. Two continuous survival models were constructed, with 70% of the data (training set) using Cox regression, first based only on preoperative serum cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 levels and image features (model A), and then on CA19-9, image features, and the Brennan score (composite pathology score; model B). The remaining 30% of the data (test set) were reserved for independent validation.ResultsA total of 161 patients were included in the analysis. Training and test sets contained 113 and 48 patients, respectively. Quantitative image features combined with CA19-9 achieved a c-index of 0.69 [integrated Brier score (IBS) 0.224] on the test data, while combining CA19-9, imaging, and the Brennan score achieved a c-index of 0.74 (IBS 0.200) on the test data.ConclusionWe present two continuous survival prediction models for resected PDAC patients. Quantitative analysis of CT texture features is associated with overall survival. Further work includes applying the model to an external dataset to increase the sample size for training and to determine its applicability.

Objective To analyze the natural history of small asymptomatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNET) and to present a matched comparison between groups who underwent either initial observation or resection. Management approach for small PanNET is uncertain. Methods Incidentally discovered, sporadic, small (<3 cm), stage I–II PanNET were analyzed retrospectively between 1993 and 2013. Diagnosis was determined either by pathology or imaging characteristics. Intention-to-treat analysis was applied. Results A total of 464 patients were reviewed. Observation was recommended for 104 patients (observation group), and these patients were matched to 77 patients in the resection group based on tumor size at initial imaging. The observation group was significantly older (median 63 vs. 59 years, p  = 0.04) and tended towards shorter follow-up (44 vs. 57 months, p  = 0.06). Within the observation group, 26 of the 104 patients (25 %) underwent subsequent tumor resection after a median observation interval of 30 months (range 7–135). At the time of last follow-up of the observation group, the median tumor size had not changed (1.2 cm, p  = 0.7), and no patient had developed evidence of metastases. Within the resection group, low-grade (G1) pathology was recorded in 72 (95 %) tumors and 5 (6 %) developed a recurrence, which occurred after a median of 5.1 (range 2.9–8.1) years. No patient in either group died from disease. Death from other causes occurred in 11 of 181 (6 %) patients. Conclusions In this study, no patient who was initially observed developed metastases or died from disease after a median follow-up of 44 months. Observation for stable, small, incidentally discovered PanNET is reasonable in selected patients.

Background Resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) offers a chance of cure, but recurrence is common and survival is often limited. The clinical and pathological characteristics of long-term survivors have not been well studied. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 212 patients who underwent partial hepatectomy for HCC with curative intent from 1992 to 2006. Fifty patients who survived beyond 10 years were compared with 109 patients who died of recurrence within 10 years. Results Multivariate analysis showed that tumors <5 cm (odds ratio [OR] 2.3, p  = 0.04), solitary tumors (OR 3.2, p  = 0.01), and absence of vascular invasion (OR 2.3, p  = 0.04) were independently associated with actual 10-year survival. However, more than 20% of long-term survivors also possessed established poor prognostic factors, including α-fetoprotein >1000 ng/mL, unfavorable serum inflammatory indices, tumor size >10 cm, microvascular invasion, poor tumor differentiation, cirrhosis, and metabolic syndrome. None of the 10-year survivors had an R1 resection. While 77% of the short-term survivors developed recurrence within 2 years, 42% of the 10-year survivors developed recurrence during their decade of follow-up, although most of the recurrences among 10-year survivors were intrahepatic and amenable to further treatment. Among patients who survived beyond 10 years, 42% remained alive without recurrence. Conclusions In this largest Western series of actual 10-year survivors after HCC resection, almost one in four patients survived over a decade, even though nearly half of this subset had developed recurrence. While many well-known variables were associated with a poor outcome, only a positive microscopic margin precluded long-term survival.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common human sarcoma and usually results from a sporadic mutation in KIT or, less frequently, platelet-derived growth factor alpha (PDGFRA). Rarely, a germline mutation in the KIT, PDGFRA, succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), or neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) gene is responsible for GIST. These tumors are found in the stomach (PDGFRA and SDH), small bowel (NF1), or a combination of both (KIT). There is a need to improve care for these patients regarding genetic testing, screening, and surveillance. Since most GISTs due to a germline mutation do not respond to tyrosine kinase inhibitors, the role of surgery is critical, especially when considering germline gastric GIST. However, in contrast to the established recommendation for prophylactic total gastrectomy in cadherin 1 (CDH1) mutation carriers once they reach adulthood, there are no formal guidelines as to the timing or extent of surgical resection for patients who are either carriers of a germline GIST mutation causing gastric GIST or have already developed gastric GIST(s). Surgeons must balance treating what is often multicentric, yet initially indolent disease with the chance of cure and the complications associated with total gastrectomy. Here, we consider the major issues in performing surgery in patients with germline GIST and illustrate the principles with a previously unreported patient harboring a germline KIT 579 deletion.

Hepatocellular adenomas (HCA) are benign liver tumors that may transform into hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the molecular drivers of this transformation remain ill-defined. This study evaluates the molecular changes in HCA and HCC and in comparison to their adjacent non-neoplastic liver. 11 patients with HCA and 10 patients with HCC without underlying hepatitis or cirrhosis were included in this pilot study. Tumor and non-tumor liver tissues were selected for immunohistochemical staining, small RNA sequencing, and targeted gene sequencing. We compared microRNA expressions and mutations between HCA and HCC and non-neoplastic liver. HCA were classified as inflammatory (n = 6), steatotic (n = 4), or β-catenin activated (n = 1) subtypes. MicroRNA profile of all 3 HCA subtypes clustered between that of normal liver and HCC in principal component analysis. In both HCA and HCC, miR-200a, miR-429, and miR-490-3p were significantly downregulated compared to normal liver, whereas miR-452, miR-766, and miR-1180 were significantly upregulated. In addition, compared to HCA, HCC had significantly higher expression of members of the chromosome 19 miRNA cluster (C19MC), including miR-515-5p, miR-517a, miR-518b, and miR-520c-3p. This study indicates that while there are significant differences in the molecular profile between HCA and HCC, several miRNAs are similarly deregulated in HCA and HCC compared to adjacent normal liver. These results may provide insights into the drivers of hepatocarcinogenesis and warrant further investigations.

Background Reports show that FOLFIRINOX therapy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) results in objective response rates two to threefold higher than those of other regimens. This study aimed to assess response and resection rates for locally unresectable (stage 3) patients initially treated with induction FOLFIRINOX. Methods The institutional cancer database was queried for patients treated with induction FOLFIRINOX therapy between 2010 and 2013. Patients were included in the study if they were treated at the authors’ institution for stage 3 PDAC (locally unresectable) that had been adjudicated at a weekly multidisciplinary tumor board. Results The study identified 101 patients. The median age was 64 years (range 37–81 years), and the median follow-up period was 12 months (range 3–37 months). The patients received a median of six cycles (range 1–20 cycles) of induction FOLFIRINOX. No grade 4 or 5 toxicity was recorded. At the initial restaging (median of 3 months after diagnosis), 23 patients (23 %) had developed distant metastases, 15 patients (15 %) had undergone resection, and 63 patients (63 %) had proceeded to chemoradiation. In the group of 63 patients who had proceeded to chemoradiation (median of 9 months after diagnosis), an additional 16 patients (16 %) had undergone resection, and 5 patients (5 %) had developed metastases. A partial radiographic response was observed in 29 % of all the patients, which was associated with ability to perform resection ( p  = 0.004). The median overall survival time was 11 months for the group that progressed with FOLFIRINOX and 26 months for the group that did not progress. Conclusion Nearly one third of the patients who had been initially identified as having stage 3 pancreatic carcinoma and had been treated with FOLFIRINOX responded radiographically and underwent tumor resection.

BackgroundThe impact of primary tumor location on overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and long-term outcomes has not been well established in patients undergoing potentially curative resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).MethodsA single-institution database was queried for initial resections for CRLM 1992–2004. Primary tumor location determined by chart review (right = cecum to transverse; left = splenic flexure to sigmoid). Rectal cancer (distal 16 cm), multiple primaries, and unknown location were excluded. Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression methods were used. Cure was defined as actual 10-year survival with either no recurrence or resected recurrence with at least 3 years of disease-free follow-up.ResultsA total of 907 patients were included with a median follow-up of 11 years; 578 patients (64%) had left-sided and 329 (36%) right-sided primaries. Median OS for patients with a left-sided primary was 5.2 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6–6.0) versus 3.6 years (95% CI 3.2–4.2) for right-sided (p = 0.004). On multivariable analysis, the hazard ratio for right-sided tumors was 1.22 (95% CI 1.02–1.45, p = 0.028) after adjusting for common clinicopathologic factors. Median RFS was marginally different stratified by primary location (1.3 vs. 1.7 years; p = 0.065). On multivariable analysis, location of primary was not significantly associated with RFS (p = 0.105). Observed cure rates were 22% for left-sided and 20% for right-sided tumors.ConclusionsAmong patients undergoing resection of CRLM, left-sided primary tumors were associated with improved median OS. However, long-term survival and recurrence-free survival were not significantly different stratified by primary location. Patients with left-sided primary tumors displayed a prolonged clinical course suggestive of more indolent biology.

Background Randomized trials have demonstrated a benefit associated with adjuvant therapy for pancreatic cancer, and retrospective studies have demonstrated improvements in postoperative mortality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether these improvements could be identified in a cohort of patients who underwent resection for pancreatic cancer at a single institution over three decades. Methods Short- (30 days), intermediate- (1 year), and long-term survival were compared between decades. Long-term survival focused on patients who survived at least 1 year to minimize the effects of perioperative mortality and patient selection. Results Between 1983 and 2009, 1147 pancreatic resections were performed for ductal adenocarcinoma, including 123 resections in the 1980s, 399 in the 1990s, and 625 in the 2000s. The 30-day mortality rates were 4.9%, 1.5% ( P  = 0.03 vs. 1980s), and 1.3% ( P  = 0.007 vs. 1980s). The 1-year mortality rates were 42%, 31% ( P  < 0.001 vs. 1980s), and 24% ( P  < 0.001 vs. 1980s and 1990s). In the group of patients who survived 1 year, the overall survivals were 23.2 months, 25.6 months ( P  = 0.6 vs. 1980s), and 24.5 months ( P  = 0.2 vs. 1980s). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for pathologic features, the decade of resection was not a significant predictor of long-term survival (hazard ratio = 1.1, P  = 0.3). Conclusions Patients who underwent resection for pancreatic cancer between 2000 and 2009 experienced improved operative mortality and 1-year survival compared to those who underwent resection in the 1980s, while the long-term survival was similar over all three decades. These results underscore the need for early detection strategies and more effective adjuvant therapies for patients with pancreatic cancer.