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In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate the impacts of faster productivity growth for 20 food crops on income and other indicators in 106 countries in developing regions in 2030. We first estimated the value of production in 2015 for each crop using data from FAO. We then used the IMPACT and GLOBE economic models to estimate changes in the value of production and changes in economy-wide income under scenarios of faster crop productivity growth, assuming that increased investment will raise annual rates of yield growth by 25% above baseline growth rates over the period 2015–2030. We found that faster productivity growth in rice, wheat and maize increased economy-wide income in the selected countries in 2030 by 59 billion USD, 27 billion USD and 21 billion USD respectively, followed by banana and yams with increases of 9 billion USD each. While these amounts represent small shares of total GDP, they are 2–15 times current public R&D spending on food crops in developing countries. Income increased most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Faster productivity growth in rice and wheat reduced the population at risk of hunger by 11 million people and 6 million people respectively, followed by plantain and cassava with reductions of about 2 million people each. Changes in adequacy ratios were relatively large for carbohydrates (already in surplus) and relatively small for micronutrients. In general, we found that impacts of faster productivity growth vary widely across crops, regions and outcome indicators, highlighting the importance of identifying the potentially diverse objectives of different decision makers and recognizing possible tradeoffs between objectives.

Global food security will remain a worldwide concern for the next 50 years and beyond. Recently, crop yield has fallen in many areas because of declining investments in research and infrastructure, as well as increasing water scarcity. Climate change and HIV/AIDS are also crucial factors affecting food security in many regions. Although agroecological approaches offer some promise for improving yields, food security in developing countries could be substantially improved by increased investment and policy reforms.

Little empirical evidence on the economic value of biological control of pests at farm level is available to improve economic decision-making by farmers and policy makers. Using insect sampling and household survey in an integrated bio-economic analysis framework, this paper studies farmers' crop management practices in cotton in the North China Plain, and estimates the marginal value of natural enemies and costs of chemical insecticides to farmers. Ladybeetles (mainly Harmonia axyridis, Propylea japonica, and Coccinella septempunctata), the dominant natural enemy group that controls the primary pest (aphid) in cotton in our study area, provide a significant economic benefit that is unknown to the farmers. Even at the current high levels of insecticide use, an additional ladybeetle provides an economic benefit of 0.05 CNY (almost USD 0.01) to farmers. The use of broad-spectrum insecticides by farmers is alarmingly excessive, not only undermining farmers' cotton profitability but also inducing social costs as well as disruption of the natural pest suppression system. Doubling current ladybeetle density in cotton field could gain an estimated USD 300 million for cotton farmers in China, providing a strong economic case for policies to move the pest control system towards a more ecologically-based regime, with positive consequences for farm income and environmental health. With rising use of biological control service provided by natural enemies such as ladybeetles in cotton fields, significant falls in farmers' insecticide use would be expected, which could raise the value of ladybeetles and other natural enemies even further. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to rationalize inputs and move forward to improved agro-ecosystem management in smallholder farming system. Raising knowledge and awareness on the costs and value of biological pest control versus insecticides among farmers and policy makers and having effective extension service, are priorities towards achieving a more ecologically-based approach to crop protection on smallholder farms.

Long-term changes in land use, climate, and agricultural technologies may affect pest severity and management. The influences of these major drivers can only be identified by analyzing long-term data. This study examines panel data on land use, adoption of genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insect-resistant cotton, weather, pest severity, and insecticide use on three major cotton pests for 51 counties in China during 1991–2015. Bt cotton had pervasive effects on the whole pest complex in cotton and its management. Adoption resulted in major reductions in insecticide use for bollworm control. The resulting restoration of aphid biological control decreased aphid severity. However, mirid bugs, which have few effective natural enemies in cotton, increased in severity with warming May and reduced insecticide spraying against bollworm. The effects of landscape on pest severity were pest specific. The severity of cotton aphid and mirid bugs decreased with higher land use diversity, but the severity of highly polyphagous cotton bollworm was unrelated to land use diversity. Shares of forest, water body, and unused land area were negatively associated with the severity of mirid bugs, whereas cotton bollworm responded positively to the shares of water body and unused land area. Farmers sprayed insecticides at mild infestation levels and responded aggressively to severe bollworm outbreaks. Findings support the usefulness of Bt-based plant resistance as a component of integrated pest management (IPM) but highlight the potential for unexpected outcomes resulting from agroecosystem feedback loops as well as the importance of climate.

This paper uses IFPRI's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodity and Trade (IMPACT) to assess long-term agricultural supply and demand relations. Examining these new global food system realities through the lens of scenarios for agricultural supply and demand indicates that, if current policies and investment trends continue, real world prices of most cereals and meats are projected to increase in the future. Growth in demand for meat, milk, biofuels and growing scarcity in water supplies are projected to put pressure on agricultural prices and strain land and water resources further. Climate change will have negative impacts on agricultural production in much of the world. Rising prices and poor progress on food security are not, however, inevitable. Policy reforms and increased investment in agricultural research, irrigation infrastructure, and rural roads, can reduce hunger and poverty. Reprinted by permission of the American Agricultural Economics Association

This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond.

China's emergence as the world's fastest growing economy has both raised hopes that East Asia's giant can join the ranks of modernizing nations and fueled concerns that its rapid transition will upset the fragile equilibrium of global markets and institutions. The nexus of China's growth, the management of its food economy, and its potential effect on world agricultural product markets compellingly illustrates the delicate balance facing policy makers. Directed properly, China's growth provides an unprecedented opportunity for achieving major gains in its food security, poverty reduction, and nutritional improvement. Without suitable policies, China's development may wreak havoc on sectors of its own society as well as on the rest of the world. Unfortunately, China's leadership and the international community have a limited scope for understanding future trends, evaluating socioeconomic trade-offs, and sorting through policy options. Current analytical tools are quite simple, having almost no structural basis and providing little policy guidance.