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Western boundary currents (WBCs) of the Southern Hemisphere transport heat poleward and are regions of rapid ocean warming. However, the mechanisms responsible for the enhanced warming over the Southern Hemisphere WBC extensions are still debated. Here we show that enhanced eddy generation in the WBC extensions through changes in barotropic and baroclinic instabilities results in enhanced ocean warming as the eddies propagate. This results from a poleward shift of the WBCs, associated with changes in the mid-latitude easterly winds. Consequently, the WBCs have penetrated poleward but not strengthened and are now transporting more heat into their extensions. Our study clearly elucidates the dynamic processes driving increased eddying and warming in the Southern Hemisphere WBC extensions and has implications for understanding and predicting ocean warming, marine heatwaves and the impact on the marine ecosystem in the WBC extensions under climate change.Observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere western boundary currents (WBCs) is still under debate. Here poleward shifts, associated with changes in the mid-latitude easterly winds, of the WBCs, not strengthening, are found to drive enhanced eddy generation and ocean warming in their extensions.

During 2022, extreme rainfall occurred across southeast Australia, making it the wettest year on record. The oceanic impact of extreme rainfall events in normally ‘dry’ regions is not well understood, as their effects are challenging to observe. Here, we use unique multi-platform timeseries and spatial data from 36 autonomous ocean glider missions over 13 years, and we define an extreme salinity threshold inshore of the East Australian Current. We show that the freshwater plume extended fivefold further than previously thought. The compound effect of multiple large rainfall events resulted in a newly observed stratification (‘double-stacking’) dynamic, with the stratification being largely controlled by salinity. Extreme salinity events are known to be important for species composition of local fisheries as well as detrimental for coastal water quality. Such events and their impacts may become more common as extreme rainfall events are projected to become more frequent in a changing climate. Hence, comprehensive observing strategies facilitating identification of salinity extremes are essential. In 2022, record rainfall in Australia impacted coastal salinity and circulation. In this paper, the authors used ocean gliders to track extreme low salinity conditions that lasted months and extended over 70 km offshore.

Ocean data timeseries are vital for a diverse range of stakeholders (ranging from government, to industry, to academia) to underpin research, support decision making, and identify environmental change. However, continuous monitoring and observation of ocean variables is difficult and expensive. Moreover, since oceans are vast, observations are typically sparse in spatial and temporal resolution. In addition, the hostile ocean environment creates challenges for collecting and maintaining data sets, such as instrument malfunctions and servicing, often resulting in temporal gaps of varying lengths. Neural networks (NN) have proven effective in many diverse big data applications, but few oceanographic applications have been tested using modern frameworks and architectures. Therefore, here we demonstrate a “proof of concept” neural network application using a popular “off-the-shelf” framework called “TensorFlow” to predict subsurface ocean variables including dissolved oxygen and nutrient (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) concentrations, and temperature timeseries and show how these models can be used successfully for gap filling data products. We achieved a final prediction accuracy of over 96% for oxygen and temperature, and mean squared errors (MSE) of 2.63, 0.0099, and 0.78, for nitrates, phosphates, and silicates, respectively. The temperature gap-filling was done with an innovative contextual Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) NN that uses data before and after the gap as separate feature variables. We also demonstrate the application of a novel dropout based approach to approximate the Bayesian uncertainty of these temperature predictions. This Bayesian uncertainty is represented in the form of 100 monte carlo dropout estimates of the two longest gaps in the temperature timeseries from a model with 25% dropout in the input and recurrent LSTM connections. Throughout the study, we present the NN training process including the tuning of the large number of NN hyperparameters which could pose as a barrier to uptake among researchers and other oceanographic data users. Our models can be scaled up and applied operationally to provide consistent, gap-free data to all data users, thus encouraging data uptake for data-based decision making.

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs.

Marine heatwaves are extreme seawater temperature events that can have severe impacts on marine life. The extent of the ecological damage depends not only on the easily observed surface signature but on the marine heatwave structure at depth. However, due to a paucity of in situ sub-surface observations the vertical structure of marine heatwaves is poorly understood. Here we analyse the sub-surface coherence and controls of marine heatwaves using one of the world’s longest (28 years) records of daily sub-surface ocean temperature off Sydney, Australia. We show that seasonal stratification, large-scale circulation and local downwelling processes control the vertical coherence of coastal marine heatwaves. We define three classes of marine heatwaves which can extend through the water column, form in the shallow surface layer, or sub-surface independently, and are therefore not always evident in surface data. We conclude that sub-surface data need to be considered in monitoring marine heatwaves in coastal areas where maximum biological damage is reported.

The Hawkesbury Bioregion located off southeastern Australia (31.5–34.5 o S) is a region of highly variable circulation. The region spans the typical separation point of the East Australian Current (EAC), the western boundary current that dominates the flow along the coast of SE Australia. It lies adjacent to a known ocean warming hotspot in the Tasman Sea, and is a region of high productivity. However, we have limited understanding of the circulation, temperature regimes and shelf transport in this region, and the drivers of variability. We configure a high resolution (750m) numerical model for the Hawkesbury Shelf region nested inside 2 data assimilating models of decreasing resolution, to obtain the best estimate of the shelf circulation and transport over a 2-yr period (2012–2013). Here we show that the transport is driven by the mesoscale EAC circulation that strengthens in summer and is related to the separation of the EAC jet from the coast. Transport estimates show strong offshore export is a maximum between 32-33 o S. Median offshore transports range 2.5–8.4Sv seasonally and are a maximum during in summer driven by the separation of the EAC jet from the coast. The transport is more variable downstream of the EAC separation, driven by the EAC eddy field. Onshore transport occurs more frequently off Sydney 33.5–34.5 o S; seasonal medians range -1.7 to 2.3Sv, with an onshore maximum in winter. The region is biologically productive, and it is a known white shark nursery area despite the dominance of the oligotrophic western boundary current. Hence an understanding of the drivers of circulation and cross-shelf exchange is important.

Marine heatwaves are known to cause severe ecosystem damage and therefore have received attention in recent years. However, the focus has tended to be on global (surface) studies, but not coastal waters. Cyclonic eddies are important and underappreciated components in the eddy-dominated western boundary current system, but their impacts on the path of the western boundary currents have largely been unexplored. Here we show that cold cyclonic eddies can modulate the most intense coastal marine heatwaves on record inshore of the East Australian Current. We show that the marine heatwave was driven and modulated by the lateral movement of the western boundary current jet and cyclonic eddies. This study reveals that the interplay of cyclonic eddies and a western boundary current can drive coastal ocean warming, paving the way for future investigations into eddy interactions and the evolution of coastal marine heatwaves in other western boundary current regions.

The cross-shelf dynamics up- and downstream of the separation of the South Pacific Ocean’s Western Boundary Current (WBC) are studied using two years of high-resolution velocity and temperature measurements from mooring arrays. The shelf circulation is dominated by the East Australian Current (EAC) and its eddy field, with mean poleward depth-integrated magnitudes on the shelf break of 0.35 and 0.15 m s−1 up- and downstream of the separation point, respectively. The high cross-shelf variability is analyzed though a momentum budget, showing a dominant geostrophic balance at both locations. Among the secondary midshelf terms, the bottom stress influence is higher upstream of the separation point while the wind stress is dominant downstream. This study investigates the response of the velocity and temperature cross-shelf structure to both wind and EAC intrusions. Despite the deep water (up to 140 m), the response to a dominant along-shelf wind stress forcing is a classic two-layer Ekman structure. During weak winds, the shelf encroachment of the southward current drives an onshore Ekman flow in the bottom boundary layer. Both the bottom velocity and the resultant bottom cross-shelf temperature gradient are proportional to the magnitude of the encroaching current, with similar linear regressions up- and downstream of the WBC separation. The upwelled water is then subducted below the EAC upstream of the separation point. Such current-driven upwelling is shown to be the dominant driver of cold water uplift in the EAC-dominated region, with significant impacts expected on nutrient enrichment and thus on biological productivity.

Estuarine outflow can have a significant impact on physical and ecological systems in the coastal ocean. Along southeastern Australia, inshore of the East Australian Current, the shelf is narrow, the coastal circulation is advection dominated, and river estuarine outflow tends to be low, hence river plumes have largely been ignored. For these reasons, we lack an understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of river plumes during large rainfall events (which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity), and the interaction of the mesoscale circulation with the estuarine outflow remains to be explored. Using a high-resolution (750 m) hydrodynamic model, we simulate idealized plumes from 4 estuaries during three different mesoscale circulation scenarios and investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of the estuarine outflow under two contrasting rainfall events (normal and large). We explore the plume from the largest of the 4 rivers, the Hawkesbury River, to understand the impact of the mesoscale circulation. During the first EAC mode, the plume spreads both northward and southeastward. The offshore spread of the plume is the largest in this scenario (~12.5 km east of the river mouth) in the wet event. In the second EAC mode, this plume dispersal is toward the north and east, driven by the proximity of a cyclonic eddy on the shelf, with an eastward extension of 11 km. In the third EAC mode, most of this river plume spreads southward with some to the north, again dictated by the position of the cyclonic eddy. The cross-shelf dispersal is a minimum of 9.5 km from the river mouth. It takes around 6 days for the freshwater spatial extent of the plume in the wet event to return to the base case. These results show the importance of mesoscale EAC circulation on the shelf circulation when considering river plumes dispersal. Knowledge of the ultimate fate of riverborne material, dilution and cumulative effects will enable better environmental management of this dynamic region for the local government.

The influence of physical oceanographic processes on the dispersal of larvae is critical for understanding the ecology of species and for anticipating settlement into fisheries to aid long-term sustainable harvest. This study examines the mechanisms by which ocean currents shape larval dispersal and supply to the continental shelf-break, and the extent to which circulation determines settlement patterns using Sagmariasus verreauxi (Eastern Rock Lobster, ERL) as a model species. Despite the large range of factors that can impact larval dispersal, we show that within a Western Boundary Current system, mesoscale circulation explains broad spatio-temporal patterns of observed settlement including inter-annual and decadal variability along 500 km of coastline. To discern links between ocean circulation and settlement, we correlate a unique 21- year dataset of observed lobster settlement (i.e., early juvenile & pueruli abundance), with simulated larval settlement. Simulations use outputs of an eddy-resolving, data-assimilated, hydrodynamic model, incorporating ERL spawning strategy and larval duration. The latitude where the East Australian Current (EAC) deflects east and separates from the continent determines the limit between regions of low and high ERL settlement. We found that years with a persistent EAC flow have low settlement while years when mesoscale eddies prevail have high settlement; in fact, mesoscale eddies facilitate the transport of larvae to the continental shelf-break from offshore. Proxies for settlement based on circulation features observed with satellites could therefore be useful in predicting broadscale patterns of settlement orders of magnitudes to guide harvest limits.