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In 2018, the US National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer's Association proposed a purely biological definition of Alzheimer's disease that relies on biomarkers. Although the intended use of this framework was for research purposes, it has engendered debate and challenges regarding its use in everyday clinical practice. For instance, cognitively unimpaired individuals can have biomarker evidence of both amyloid β and tau pathology but will often not develop clinical manifestations in their lifetime. Furthermore, a positive Alzheimer's disease pattern of biomarkers can be observed in other brain diseases in which Alzheimer's disease pathology is present as a comorbidity. In this Personal View, the International Working Group presents what we consider to be the current limitations of biomarkers in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and, on the basis of this evidence, we propose recommendations for how biomarkers should and should not be used for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease in a clinical setting. We recommend that Alzheimer's disease diagnosis be restricted to people who have positive biomarkers together with specific Alzheimer's disease phenotypes, whereas biomarker-positive cognitively unimpaired individuals should be considered only at-risk for progression to Alzheimer's disease.

Use of selective in-vivo tau imaging will enable improved understanding of tau aggregation in the brain, facilitating research into causes, diagnosis, and treatment of major tauopathies such as Alzheimer's disease, progressive supranuclear palsy, corticobasal syndrome, chronic traumatic encephalopathy, and some variants of frontotemporal lobar degeneration. Neuropathological studies of Alzheimer's disease show a strong association between tau deposits, decreased cognitive function, and neurodegenerative changes. Selective tau imaging will allow the in-vivo exploration of such associations and measure the global and regional changes in tau deposits over time. Such imaging studies will comprise non-invasive assessment of the spatial and temporal pattern of tau deposition over time, providing insight into the role tau plays in ageing and helping to establish the relation between cognition, genotype, neurodegeneration, and other biomarkers. Once validated, selective tau imaging might be useful as a diagnostic, prognostic, and progression biomarker, and a surrogate marker for the monitoring of efficacy and patient recruitment for anti-tau therapeutic trials.

Similar to most chronic diseases, Alzheimer's disease (AD) develops slowly from a preclinical phase into a fully expressed clinical syndrome. We aimed to use longitudinal data to calculate the rates of amyloid β (Aβ) deposition, cerebral atrophy, and cognitive decline. In this prospective cohort study, healthy controls, patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and patients with AD were assessed at enrolment and every 18 months. At every visit, participants underwent neuropsychological examination, MRI, and a carbon-11-labelled Pittsburgh compound B (11C-PiB) PET scan. We included participants with three or more 11C-PiB PET follow-up assessments. Aβ burden was expressed as 11C-PiB standardised uptake value ratio (SUVR) with the cerebellar cortex as reference region. An SUVR of 1·5 was used to discriminate high from low Aβ burdens. The slope of the regression plots over 3–5 years was used to estimate rates of change for Aβ deposition, MRI volumetrics, and cognition. We included those participants with a positive rate of Aβ deposition to calculate the trajectory of each variable over time. 200 participants (145 healthy controls, 36 participants with MCI, and 19 participants with AD) were assessed at enrolment and every 18 months for a mean follow-up of 3·8 (95% CI CI 3·6–3·9) years. At baseline, significantly higher Aβ burdens were noted in patients with AD (2·27, SD 0·43) and those with MCI (1·94, 0·64) than in healthy controls (1·38, 0·39). At follow-up, 163 (82%) of the 200 participants showed positive rates of Aβ accumulation. Aβ deposition was estimated to take 19·2 (95% CI 16·8–22·5) years in an almost linear fashion—with a mean increase of 0·043 (95% CI 0·037–0·049) SUVR per year—to go from the threshold of 11C-PiB positivity (1·5 SUVR) to the levels observed in AD. It was estimated to take 12·0 (95% CI 10·1–14·9) years from the levels observed in healthy controls with low Aβ deposition (1·2 [SD 0·1] SUVR) to the threshold of 11C-PiB positivity. As AD progressed, the rate of Aβ deposition slowed towards a plateau. Our projections suggest a prolonged preclinical phase of AD in which Aβ deposition reaches our threshold of positivity at 17·0 (95% CI 14·9–19·9) years, hippocampal atrophy at 4·2 (3·6–5·1) years, and memory impairment at 3·3 (2·5–4·5) years before the onset of dementia (clinical dementia rating score 1). Aβ deposition is slow and protracted, likely to extend for more than two decades. Such predictions of the rate of preclinical changes and the onset of the clinical phase of AD will facilitate the design and timing of therapeutic interventions aimed at modifying the course of this illness. Science and Industry Endowment Fund (Australia), The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Program and Project Grants, the Austin Hospital Medical Research Foundation, Victorian State Government, The Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation, and the Alzheimer's Association.

Genetic association studies have identified 44 common genome-wide significant risk loci for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, LOAD genetic architecture and prediction are unclear. Here we estimate the optimal P -threshold ( P optimal ) of a genetic risk score (GRS) for prediction of LOAD in three independent datasets comprising 676 cases and 35,675 family history proxy cases. We show that the discriminative ability of GRS in LOAD prediction is maximised when selecting a small number of SNPs. Both simulation results and direct estimation indicate that the number of causal common SNPs for LOAD may be less than 100, suggesting LOAD is more oligogenic than polygenic. The best GRS explains approximately 75% of SNP-heritability, and individuals in the top decile of GRS have ten-fold increased odds when compared to those in the bottom decile. In addition, 14 variants are identified that contribute to both LOAD risk and age at onset of LOAD. Despite the identification of genetic risk loci for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD), the genetic architecture and prediction remains unclear. Here, the authors use genetic risk scores for prediction of LOAD across three datasets and show evidence suggesting oligogenic variant architecture for this disease.

Brain amyloid β (Aβ) deposition and neurodegeneration have been documented in about 50–60% of cognitively healthy elderly individuals (aged 60 years or older). The long-term cognitive consequences of the presence of Alzheimer's disease pathology and neurodegeneration, and whether they have an independent or synergistic effect on cognition, are unclear. We aimed to characterise the long-term clinical and cognitive trajectories of healthy elderly individuals using a two-marker (Alzheimer's disease pathology and neurodegeneration) imaging construct. Between Nov 3, 2006, and Nov 25, 2014, 573 cognitively healthy individuals in Melbourne and Perth, Australia, (mean age 73·1 years [SD 6·2]; 58% women) were enrolled in the Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle (AIBL) study. Alzheimer's disease pathology (A) was determined by measuring Aβ deposition by PET, and neurodegeneration (N) was established by measuring hippocampal volume using MRI. Individuals were categorised as A−N−, A+N−, A+N+, or suspected non-Alzheimer's disease pathophysiology (A−N+, SNAP). Clinical progression, hippocampal volume, standard neuropsychological tests, and domain-specific and global cognitive composite scores were assessed over 6 years of follow-up. Linear mixed effect models and a Cox proportional hazards model of survival were used to evaluate, compare, and contrast the clinical, cognitive, and volumetric trajectories of patients in the four AN categories. 50 (9%) healthy individuals were classified as A+N+, 87 (15%) as A+N−, 310 (54%) as A−N−, and 126 (22%) as SNAP. APOE ε4 was more frequent in participants in the A+N+ (27; 54%) and A+N− (42; 48%) groups than in the A−N− (66; 21%) and SNAP groups (23; 18%). The A+N− and A+N+ groups had significantly faster cognitive decline than the A−N− group (0·08 SD per year for AIBL-Preclinical AD Cognitive Composite [PACC]; p<0·0001; and 0·25; p<0·0001; respectively). The A +N+ group also had faster hippocampal atrophy than the A−N− group (0·04 cm3 per year; p=0·02). The SNAP group generally did not show significant decline over time compared with the A−N− group (0·03 SD per year [p=0·19] for AIBL-PACC and a 0·02 cm3 per year increase [p=0·16] for hippocampal volume), although SNAP was sometimes associated with lower baseline cognitive scores (0·20 SD less than A−N− for AIBL-PACC). Within the follow-up, 24% (n=12) of individuals in the A+N+ group and 16% (n=14) in the A+N− group progressed to amnestic mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease, compared with 9% (n=11) in the SNAP group. Brain amyloidosis, a surrogate marker of Alzheimer's disease pathology, is a risk factor for cognitive decline and for progression from preclinical stages to symptomatic stages of the disease, with neurodegeneration acting as a compounding factor. However, neurodegeneration alone does not confer a significantly different risk of cognitive decline from that in the group with neither brain amyloidosis or neurodegeneration. CSIRO Flagship Collaboration Fund and the Science and Industry Endowment Fund (SIEF), National Health and Medical Research Council, the Dementia Collaborative Research Centres programme, McCusker Alzheimer's Research Foundation, and Operational Infrastructure Support from the Government of Victoria.

Changes to lipid metabolism are tightly associated with the onset and pathology of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Lipids are complex molecules comprising many isomeric and isobaric species, necessitating detailed analysis to enable interpretation of biological significance. Our expanded targeted lipidomics platform (569 species across 32 classes) allows for detailed lipid separation and characterisation. In this study we examined peripheral samples of two cohorts (AIBL, n  = 1112 and ADNI, n  = 800). We are able to identify concordant peripheral signatures associated with prevalent AD arising from lipid pathways including; ether lipids, sphingolipids (notably GM 3 gangliosides) and lipid classes previously associated with cardiometabolic disease (phosphatidylethanolamine and triglycerides). We subsequently identified similar lipid signatures in both cohorts with future disease. Lastly, we developed multivariate lipid models that improved classification and prediction. Our results provide a holistic view between the lipidome and AD using a comprehensive approach, providing targets for further mechanistic investigation. The onset and pathology of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is associated with changes to lipid metabolism. Here, the authors analysed 569 lipids from 32 classes and subclasses in two independent patient cohorts to identify key lipid pathways to link the plasma lipidome with AD and the future onset of AD.

We integrated lipidomics and genomics to unravel the genetic architecture of lipid metabolism and identify genetic variants associated with lipid species putatively in the mechanistic pathway for coronary artery disease (CAD). We quantified 596 lipid species in serum from 4,492 individuals from the Busselton Health Study. The discovery GWAS identified 3,361 independent lipid-loci associations, involving 667 genomic regions (479 previously unreported), with validation in two independent cohorts. A meta-analysis revealed an additional 70 independent genomic regions associated with lipid species. We identified 134 lipid endophenotypes for CAD associated with 186 genomic loci. Associations between independent lipid-loci with coronary atherosclerosis were assessed in ∼456,000 individuals from the UK Biobank. Of the 53 lipid-loci that showed evidence of association ( P  < 1 × 10 −3 ), 43 loci were associated with at least one lipid endophenotype. These findings illustrate the value of integrative biology to investigate the aetiology of atherosclerosis and CAD, with implications for other complex diseases. Dysregulation of lipid metabolism is associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). Here, the authors perform GWAS of the serum lipidome to identify variants associated with lipid species that are putatively in the mechanistic pathway to CAD.

Background The Centiloid scale was developed to standardise the results of beta-amyloid (Aβ) PET. We aimed to determine the Centiloid unit (CL) thresholds for CERAD sparse and moderate-density neuritic plaques, Alzheimer’s disease neuropathologic change (ADNC) score of intermediate or high probability of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), final clinicopathological diagnosis of AD, and expert visual read of a positive Aβ PET scan. Methods Aβ PET results in CL for 49 subjects were compared with post-mortem findings, visual read, and final clinicopathological diagnosis. The Youden Index was used to determine the optimal CL thresholds from receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Results A threshold of 20.1 CL (21.3 CL when corrected for time to death, AUC 0.97) yielded highest accuracy in detecting moderate or frequent plaque density while < 10 CL was optimal for excluding neuritic plaque. The threshold for ADNC intermediate or high likelihood AD was 49.4 CL (AUC 0.98). Those cases with a final clinicopathological diagnosis of AD yielded a median CL result of 87.7 (IQR ± 42.2) with 94% > 45 CL. Positive visual read agreed highly with results > 26 CL. Conclusions Centiloid values < 10 accurately reflected the absence of any neuritic plaque and > 20 CL indicated the presence of at least moderate plaque density, but approximately 50 CL or more best confirmed both neuropathological and clinicopathological diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease.

•Largest multi-centre harmonisation study of Amyloid PET images.•Systematic evaluation of different harmonisation strategies.•Using NMF improves inter-tracer agreement, AD-NC effect size, correlation with MMSE, and longitudinal consistency. The Centiloid scale was developed to harmonise the quantification of β-amyloid (Aβ) PET images across tracers, scanners, and processing pipelines. However, several groups have reported differences across tracers and scanners even after centiloid conversion. In this study, we aim to evaluate the impact of different pre and post-processing harmonisation steps on the robustness of longitudinal Centiloid data across three large international cohort studies. All Aβ PET data in AIBL (N = 3315), ADNI (N = 3442) and OASIS3 (N = 1398) were quantified using the MRI-based Centiloid standard SPM pipeline and the PET-only pipeline CapAIBL. SUVR were converted into Centiloids using each tracer's respective transform. Global Aβ burden from pre-defined target cortical regions in Centiloid units were quantified for both raw PET scans and PET scans smoothed to a uniform 8 mm full width half maximum (FWHM) effective smoothness. For Florbetapir, we assessed the performance of using both the standard Whole Cerebellum (WCb) and a composite white matter (WM)+WCb reference region. Additionally, our recently proposed quantification based on Non-negative Matrix Factorisation (NMF) was applied to all spatially and SUVR normalised images. Correlation with clinical severity measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and effect size, as well as tracer agreement in 11C-PiB-18F-Florbetapir pairs and longitudinal consistency were evaluated. The smoothing to a uniform resolution partially reduced longitudinal variability, but did not improve inter-tracer agreement, effect size or correlation with MMSE. Using a Composite reference region for 18F-Florbetapir improved inter-tracer agreement, effect size, correlation with MMSE, and longitudinal consistency. The best results were however obtained when using the NMF method which outperformed all other quantification approaches in all metrics used. FWHM smoothing has limited impact on longitudinal consistency or outliers. A Composite reference region including subcortical WM should be used for computing both cross-sectional and longitudinal Florbetapir Centiloid. NMF improves Centiloid quantification on all metrics examined.

: Centiloid was introduced to harmonise β-Amyloid (Aβ) PET quantification across different tracers, scanners and analysis techniques. Unfortunately, Centiloid still suffers from some quantification disparities in longitudinal analysis when normalising data from different tracers or scanners. In this work, we aim to reduce this variability using a different analysis technique applied to the existing calibration data. : All PET images from the Centiloid calibration dataset, along with 3762 PET images from the AIBL study were analysed using the recommended SPM pipeline. The PET images were SUVR normalised using the whole cerebellum. All SUVR normalised PiB images from the calibration dataset were decomposed using non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF). The NMF coefficients related to the first component were strongly correlated with global SUVR and were subsequently used as a surrogate for Aβ retention. For each tracer of the calibration dataset, the components of the NMF were computed in a way such that the coefficients of the first component would match those of the corresponding PiB. Given the strong correlations between the SUVR and the NMF coefficients on the calibration dataset, all PET images from AIBL were subsequently decomposed using the computed NMF, and their coefficients transformed into Centiloids. : Using the AIBL data, the correlation between the standard Centiloid and the novel NMF-based Centiloid was high in each tracer. The NMF-based Centiloids showed a reduction of outliers, and improved longitudinal consistency. Furthermore, it removed the effects of switching tracers from the longitudinal variance of the Centiloid measure, when assessed using a linear mixed effects model. : We here propose a novel image driven method to perform the Centiloid quantification. The methods is highly correlated with standard Centiloids while improving the longitudinal reliability when switching tracers. Implementation of this method across multiple studies may lend to more robust and comparable data for future research.