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ObjectiveAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia and an important risk factor for stroke. Treatment with anticoagulants substantially reduces risk of stroke. Current prevalence and treatment rates of AF in the UK as well as changes in recent years are not known. The aim of this analysis was to determine trends in age–sex specific prevalence and treatment of AF in the UK from 2000 to 2016.Methods17 sequential cross-sectional analyses were carried out between 2000 and 2016 using a large database of electronic primary care records of patients registered with UK general practitioners. These determined the prevalence of patients diagnosed with AF, the stroke risk of those with AF and the proportion of AF patients currently receiving anticoagulants. Stroke risk was assessed using CHA2DS2-VASc score.ResultsAge–sex standardised AF prevalence increased from 2.14% (95% CI 2.11% to 2.17%) in 2000 to 3.29% (95% CI 3.27% to 3.32%) in 2016. Between 2000 and 2016, the proportion of patients with AF prescribed anticoagulants increased from 35.4% (95% CI 34.7% to 36.1%) to 75.5% (95% CI 75.1% to 75.8%) in those with high stroke risk (p for change over time <0.001) and from 32.8% (95% CI 30.5% to 35.2%) to 47.1% (95% CI 45.4% to 48.7%) in those with moderate stroke risk (p<0.001). In patients with low risk of stroke, the proportion decreased from 19.9% (95% CI 17.8% to 22.2%) to 9.7% (95% CI 8.4% to 11.1%) (p<0.001). Anticoagulant prescribing performance varied between practices; in 2016, the proportion of eligible patients treated was 82.9% (95% CI 82.2% to 83.7%) and 62.0% (95% CI 61.0% to 63.0%) in the highest-performing and lowest-performing practice quintiles, respectively. There was poor agreement in individual practice performance over time from 2006 to 2016: linear-weighted κ=0.10 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.19).ConclusionsFrom 2000 to 2016, the prevalence of recorded AF has increased in all age groups and both sexes. Anticoagulant treatment of eligible patients with AF has more than doubled, with marked improvements since 2011, alongside a reduction in the use of anticoagulants in ineligible patients with AF.

BackgroundDespite simpler regimens than vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), adherence (taking drugs as prescribed) and persistence (continuation of drugs) to direct oral anticoagulants are suboptimal, yet understudied in electronic health records (EHRs).ObjectiveWe investigated (1) time trends at individual and system levels, and (2) the risk factors for and associations between adherence and persistence.MethodsIn UK primary care EHR (The Health Information Network 2011–2016), we investigated adherence and persistence at 1 year for oral anticoagulants (OACs) in adults with incident AF. Baseline characteristics were analysed by OAC and adherence/persistence status. Risk factors for non-adherence and non-persistence were assessed using Cox and logistic regression. Patterns of adherence and persistence were analysed.ResultsAmong 36 652 individuals with incident AF, cardiovascular comorbidities (median CHA2DS2VASc[Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category] 3) and polypharmacy (median number of drugs 6) were common. Adherence was 55.2% (95% CI 54.6 to 55.7), 51.2% (95% CI 50.6 to 51.8), 66.5% (95% CI 63.7 to 69.2), 63.1% (95% CI 61.8 to 64.4) and 64.7% (95% CI 63.2 to 66.1) for all OACs, VKA, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban. One-year persistence was 65.9% (95% CI 65.4 to 66.5), 63.4% (95% CI 62.8 to 64.0), 61.4% (95% CI 58.3 to 64.2), 72.3% (95% CI 70.9 to 73.7) and 78.7% (95% CI 77.1 to 80.1) for all OACs, VKA, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban. Risk of non-adherence and non-persistence increased over time at individual and system levels. Increasing comorbidity was associated with reduced risk of non-adherence and non-persistence across all OACs. Overall rates of ‘primary non-adherence’ (stopping after first prescription), ‘non-adherent non-persistence’ and ‘persistent adherence’ were 3.5%, 26.5% and 40.2%, differing across OACs.ConclusionsAdherence and persistence to OACs are low at 1 year with heterogeneity across drugs and over time at individual and system levels. Better understanding of contributory factors will inform interventions to improve adherence and persistence across OACs in individuals and populations.

Severe mental illness (SMI; schizophrenia, bipolar disorders (BDs), and other nonorganic psychoses) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD-related mortality. To date, no systematic review has investigated changes in population level CVD-related mortality over calendar time. It is unclear if this relationship has changed over time in higher-income countries with changing treatments. To address this gap, a systematic review was conducted, to assess the association between SMI and CVD including temporal change. Seven databases were searched (last: November 30, 2021) for cohort or case-control studies lasting ≥1 year, comparing frequency of CVD mortality or incidence in high-income countries between people with versus without SMI. No language restrictions were applied. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted to compute pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and rate ratios, pooled standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), pooled odds ratios (ORs), and pooled risk ratios (RRs) of CVD in those with versus without SMI. Temporal trends were explored by decade. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, setting, world region, and study quality (Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) score) were conducted. The narrative synthesis included 108 studies, and the quantitative synthesis 59 mortality studies (with (≥1,841,356 cases and 29,321,409 controls) and 28 incidence studies (≥401,909 cases and 14,372,146 controls). The risk of CVD-related mortality for people with SMI was higher than controls across most comparisons, except for total CVD-related mortality for BD and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) for mixed SMI. Estimated risks were larger for schizophrenia than BD. Pooled results ranged from SMR = 1.55 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33 to 1.81, p < 0.001), for CVA in people with BD to HR/rate ratio = 2.40 (95% CI: 2.25 to 2.55, p < 0.001) for CVA in schizophrenia. For schizophrenia and BD, SMRs and pooled HRs/rate ratios for CHD and CVD mortality were larger in studies with outcomes occurring during the 1990s and 2000s than earlier decades (1980s: SMR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.57 to 2.30, p = 0.71; 2000s: SMR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.93 to 3.47, p < 0.001 for schizophrenia and CHD) and in studies including people with younger age. The incidence of CVA, CVD events, and heart failure in SMI was higher than controls. Estimated risks for schizophrenia ranged from HR/rate ratio 1.25 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.51, p = 0.016) for total CVD events to rate ratio 3.82 (95% CI: 3.1 to 4.71, p < 0.001) for heart failure. Incidence of CHD was higher in BD versus controls. However, for schizophrenia, CHD was elevated in higher-quality studies only. The HR/rate ratios for CVA and CHD were larger in studies with outcomes occurring after the 1990s. Study limitations include the high risk of bias of some studies as they drew a comparison cohort from general population rates and the fact that it was difficult to exclude studies that had overlapping populations, although attempts were made to minimise this. In this study, we found that SMI was associated with an approximate doubling in the rate ratio of CVD-related mortality, particularly since the 1990s, and in younger groups. SMI was also associated with increased incidence of CVA and CHD relative to control participants since the 1990s. More research is needed to clarify the association between SMI and CHD and ways to mitigate this risk.

Background Our knowledge of the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is uncertain. Recent studies reported an increase in prevalence. However, they excluded a high proportion of ambiguous cases from general practice. Estimates are needed to inform health care providers who plan the provision of services for IBD patients. We aimed to estimate the IBD incidence and prevalence in UK general practice. Methods We undertook a retrospective cohort study of routine electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Database covering 14 million patients. Adult patients from 2006 to 2016 were included. IBD was defined as an IBD related Read code or record of IBD specific medication. Annual incidence and 12-month period prevalence were calculated. Results The prevalence of IBD increased between 2006 and 2016 from 106.2 (95% CI 105.2–107.3) to 142.1 (95% CI 140.7–143.5) IBD cases per 10,000 patients which is a 33.8% increase. Incidence varied across the years. The incidence across the full study period was 69.5 (95% CI 68.6–70.4) per 100,000 person years. Conclusions In this large study we found higher estimates of IBD incidence and prevalence than previously reported. Estimates are highly dependent on definitions of disease and previously may have been underestimated.

Background Meta-analyses of test accuracy studies may provide estimates that are highly improbable in clinical practice. Tailored meta-analysis produces plausible estimates for the accuracy of a test within a specific setting by tailoring the selection of included studies compatible with a specific setting using information from the target setting. The aim of this study was to validate the tailored meta-analysis approach by comparing outcomes from tailored meta-analysis with outcomes from a setting specific test accuracy study. Methods A retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health records provided setting-specific data on the test positive rate and disease prevalence. This was used to tailor the study selection from a review of faecal calprotectin testing for inflammatory bowel disease for meta-analysis using the binomial method and the Mahalanobis distance method. Tailored estimates were compared to estimates from a study of test accuracy in primary care using the same routine dataset. Results Tailoring resulted in the inclusion of 3/14 (binomial method) and 9/14 (Mahalanobis distance method) studies in meta-analysis. Sensitivity and specificity from tailored meta-analysis using the binomial method were 0.87 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.94) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.69) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.999) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.71), respectively using the Mahalanobis distance method. The corresponding estimates for the conventional meta-analysis were 0.94 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.76) and for the FC test accuracy study of primary care data 0.93 (95%CI 0.89 to 0.96) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.63) to detect IBD at a threshold of 50 μg/g. Although the binomial method produced a plausible estimate, the tailored estimates of sensitivity and specificity were not closer to the primary study estimates than the estimates from conventional meta-analysis including all 14 studies. Conclusions Tailored meta-analysis does not always produce estimates of sensitivity and specificity that lie closer to the estimates derived from a primary study in the setting in question. Potentially, tailored meta-analysis may be improved using a constrained model approach and this requires further investigation.

Background Patients with cancer of the lung or oesophagus, undergoing curative treatment, usually require a thoracotomy and a complex oncological resection. These surgeries carry a risk of major morbidity and mortality, and risk assessment, preoperative optimisation, and enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathways are modern approaches to optimise outcomes. Pre-operative fitness is an established predictor of postoperative outcome, accordingly, targeting pre-operative fitness through exercise prehabilitation has logical appeal. Exercise prehabilitation is challenging to implement however due to the short opportunity for intervention between diagnosis and surgery. Therefore, individually prescribed, intensive exercise training protocols which convey clinically meaningful improvements in cardiopulmonary fitness over a short period need to be investigated. This project will examine the influence of exercise prehabilitation on physiological outcomes and postoperative recovery and, through evaluation of health economics, the impact of the programme on hospital costs . Methods The PRE-HIIT Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) will compare a 2-week high intensity interval training (HIIT) programme to standard preoperative care in a cohort of thoracic and oesophageal patients who are > 2-weeks pre-surgery. A total of 78 participants will be recruited (39 per study arm). The primary outcome is cardiorespiratory fitness. Secondary outcomes include, measures of pulmonary and physical and quality of life. Outcomes will be measured at baseline (T0), and post-intervention (T1). Post-operative morbidity will also be captured. The impact of PRE-HIIT on well-being will be examined qualitatively with focus groups/interviews post-intervention (T1). Participant’s experience of preparation for surgery on the PRE-HIIT trial will also be explored. The healthcare costs associated with the PRE-HITT programme, in particular acute hospital costs, will also be examined. Discussion The overall aim of this RCT is to examine the effect of tailored, individually prescribed high intensity interval training aerobic exercise on pre-operative fitness and postoperative recovery for patients undergoing complex surgical resections, and the impact on use of health services. Trial registration The study is registered with Clinical Trials.Gov ( NCT03978325 ). Registered on 7th June 2019.

Background The database used for the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) derives participant information from primary care records. Combining predictors with FOBTs has shown to improve referral decisions and accuracy. The richer data available from GP databases could be used to complement screening referral decisions by identifying those at greatest risk of colorectal cancer. We determined the availability of data for key predictors and whether this information could be used to inform more accurate screening referral decisions. Methods An English BCSP cohort was derived using the electronic notifications received from the BCSP database to GP records. The cohort covered a period between 13th May 2009 to 17th January 2017. Completeness of variables and univariable associations were assessed. Risk prediction models were developed using Cox regression and multivariable fractional polynomials with backwards elimination. Optimism adjusted performance metrics were reported. The sensitivity and specificity of a combined approach using the negative FOBT model plus FOBT positive patients was determined using a probability equivalent to a 3% PPV NICE guidelines level. Results 292,059 participants aged 60–74 were derived for the BCSP screening cohort. A model including the screening test result had a C-statistic of 0.860, c-slope of 0.997, and R 2 of 0.597. A model developed for negative screening results only had a C-statistic of 0.597, c-slope of 0.940, and R 2 of 0.062. Risk predictors included in the models included; age, sex, alcohol consumption, IBS diagnosis, family history of gastrointestinal cancer, smoking status, previous negatives and whether a GP had ordered a blood test. For the combined screening approach, sensitivity increased slightly from 53.90% (FOBT only) to 58.82% but at the expense of an increased referral rate. Conclusions This research has identified several potential predictors for CRC in a BCSP population. A risk prediction model developed for BCSP FOBT negative patients was not clinically useful due to a low sensitivity and increased referral rate. The predictors identified in this study should be investigated in a refined algorithm combining the quantitative FIT result. Combining data from multiple sources enables fuller patient profiles using the primary care and screening database interface.

Background The risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is known to be elevated in patients with diabetes mellitus but the risk of young adults aged 18 to 40 years with impaired glucose tolerance/impaired fasting glucose (IGT/IFG) developing CKD is not well characterised. Furthermore, progression of IGT/IFG to diabetes and subsequent CKD development is not well understood. Methods A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database, a large dataset of electronic patient records. THIN database is jointly managed by IMS Health Real World Evidence Solution ( http://www.epic-uk.org/index.html ) and In Practice System (InPs). Cases were aged 18 to 40, with a diagnosis of IGT/IFG and registered at a practice contributing to THIN between 2000 and 2015. The study population consisted of 40,092 patients, including 21,454 (53.5%) female and 18,638 (46.5%) male. The median follow-up was approximately 2 years. The outcome was a diagnosis of CKD determined from either clinical coding or laboratory results. For the primary analysis the unadjusted and adjusted relative risk of CKD in IGT/IFG was compared to age, sex and practice matched controls with normoglycaemia. For the secondary analysis we compared the incidence of CKD before to after a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the IGT/IFG study cohort. Results The Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) for CKD for IGT/IFG compared to normoglycaemia was 4.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.2 to 5.1, P  < 0.001]. The adjusted IRR was 2.6 [95% CI, 2.0 to 3.4, P  < 0.001]. The unadjusted IRR was 8.8 [95% CI, 7.7 to 10.0, P  < 0.001] after IGT/IFG patients had developed T2DM and the adjusted IRR was 6.3 [95% CI, 5.5 to 7.2, P  < 0.001]. Conclusion Our results show that young IGT/IFG subjects are also at higher risk of developing CKD. This risk is modulated by the degree of baseline renal function and glucose tolerance, being higher in those developing T2DM.

Background Pyogenic hepatic abscesses are relatively rare, though untreated are uniformly fatal. A recent paradigm shift in the management of liver abscesses, facilitated by advances in diagnostic and interventional radiology, has decreased mortality rates. The aim of this study was to review our experience in managing pyogenic liver abscess, review the literature in this field, and propose guidelines to aid in the current management of this complex disease. Methods Demographic and clinical details of all patients admitted to a single institution with liver abscess over a 5 year period were reviewed. Clinical presentation, aetiology, diagnostic work-up, treatment, morbidity and mortality data were collated. Results Over a 5 year period 11 patients presented to a single institution with pyogenic hepatic abscess (55% males, mean age 60.3 years). Common clinical features at presentation were non-specific constitutional symptoms and signs. Aetiology was predominantly gallstones (45%) or diverticular disease (27%). In addition to empiric antimicrobial therapy, all patients underwent radiologically guided percutaneous drainage of the liver abscess at diagnosis and only 2 patients required surgical intervention, including one 16-year old female who underwent hemi-hepatectomy for a complex and rare Actinomycotic abscess. There were no mortalities after minimum follow-up of one year. Conclusions Pyogenic liver abscesses are uncommon, and mortality has decreased over the last two decades. Antimicrobial therapy and radiological intervention form the mainstay of modern treatment. Surgical intervention should be considered for patients with large, complex, septated or multiple abscesses, underlying disease or in whom percutaneous drainage has failed.

Diverticular disease is a condition strongly associated with low-fiber intake and obesity. There have been reports of an increasing incidence in younger individuals ranging from 12% to 21% of all cases. The aim of this study was to evaluate the management of complicated diverticular disease in patients less than 49 years and attempt to identify factors predictive of a more virulent course. An analysis of a prospectively updated database of all patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of acute diverticulitis from 2005 to 2013 was performed. Data collected included age, length of stay, inflammatory markers on admission, use of computed tomography (CT), and Hinchey Classification. SPSS version 22 was used for statistical analysis, and a P value of .05 or less was considered significant. A total of 120 (54 female and 66 male) patients less than 49 (28 to 49, 42.1) years were noted to have a diagnosis of acute diverticulitis. Twelve patients (10%) required colonic resection for complicated diverticulitis. Histological evaluation revealed 5 cases of stricture, 2 obstruction, and 5 perforations. On multivariate analysis, predictors of operative intervention and/or colonic resection included, (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) patients aged 40 to 49 years (.92 [.9 to .95]) and elevated C-reactive protein on index admission (1.4 [1.32 to 1.54]). Females were less likely to undergo colonic resection compared with males (1.18 [1.15 to 1.2]). Median length of stay was 4 days (1 to 48) for patients managed nonoperatively and 13 days (5 to 27) for those who underwent surgery. Most younger patients with acute diverticulitis can be treated successfully by conservative means. However, a proportion of patients require aggressive surgical management. •Diverticular disease in young patients is increasing and represents 12–21% of cases.•We examined diverticulitis in younger patients looking for factors predictive of a virulent course.•Twelve patients (10%) required colonic resection.•Histology of colonic resections showed 5 strictures, 2 obstructions, and 5 perforations.•Factors predictive of resection include age 40–49, elevated CRP on index admission and male sex.