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"SAMBANIS, NICHOLAS"
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Native bias : overcoming discrimination against immigrants
\"As migration to Europe has increased, so too has discrimination again immigrant populations. Countries across the EU have supported and instituted policies to force assimilation as part of a larger regional fear that immigration from Muslim majority cultures, especially, will threaten Europeans' national identities and increase the risk of radicalization. The common wisdom has been that immigrants must change their appearance, their religion, or their language in an attempt to \"pass\" as members of the majority. Through a series of innovative field experiments, the authors show that assimilationist strategies are not the only or even the best way to reduce biases: rather, discrimination is reduced when immigrants and natives share social norms that define a common identity as citizens. The core of the empirical work was done in a series of extensive, multi-year experiments in Germany--an ideal site for this work given its large immigrant population and its clearly defined cultural norms. The work showed both what animated discriminatory attitudes (cultural differences, and religious differences in particular), how this animus played out in everyday interactions (a disinclination to offer assistance to immigrant minorities, and religious Muslim immigrants in particular), and what behaviors reduce discrimination. They find--going against much conventional and even scholarly wisdom--that immigrants speaking German face as much discrimination as those using a foreign language. On the other hand, immigrants that uphold social norms (anti-littering or a progressive attitude towards women, for instance) see decreased discrimination. Ultimately, the authors offer a meticulously researched picture of what modern discrimination looks like, how it can be reduced, and the continued burden that immigrants face\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Making War and Building Peace
Making War and Building Peace examines how well United Nations peacekeeping missions work after civil war. Statistically analyzing all civil wars since 1945, the book compares peace processes that had UN involvement to those that didn't. Michael Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis argue that each mission must be designed to fit the conflict, with the right authority and adequate resources. UN missions can be effective by supporting new actors committed to the peace, building governing institutions, and monitoring and policing implementation of peace settlements. But the UN is not good at intervening in ongoing wars. If the conflict is controlled by spoilers or if the parties are not ready to make peace, the UN cannot play an effective enforcement role. It can, however, offer its technical expertise in multidimensional peacekeeping operations that follow enforcement missions undertaken by states or regional organizations such as NATO. Finding that UN missions are most effective in the first few years after the end of war, and that economic development is the best way to decrease the risk of new fighting in the long run, the authors also argue that the UN's role in launching development projects after civil war should be expanded.
eBook
هل التقسيم حل للحرب الأهلية ؟
في ذروة الحرب الأهلية العراقية عامي 2006 و2007، تحول صناع القرار والمحللون، في مواجهة العنف المكثف ضد المدنيين، وفقدان الثقة وسط السنة والشيعة والجماعات الكردية ولمناقشة قضية تقسيم الدولة من عدمها ؛ بوصفها حلا للحرب الأهلية، تقوم الدراسة بجرد معظم الحجج البارزة المناصرة، وتلك المعارضة للتقسيم، وتحدد مصدر الاختلافات في الدراسات التجريبية، وتبين هشاشة النتائج التجريبية المناصرة للتقسيم. وتحاول الإجابة على التساؤلات الآتية : ما الشروط المسبقة لنجاح التقسيم ؟ وما المقياس الصحيح له ؟ وكيف يمكن المجتمع الدولي أن يعرف متى يدعمه ؟ ومتى يعارضه ؟ هذه هي الأسئلة التي يجب أن تمثل القوة الدافعة إلى المناقشة المستمرة، حول آثار التقسيم بعد الحرب.
Book
Social Identification and Ethnic Conflict
When do ethnic cleavages increase the risk of conflict? Under what conditions is a strong common identity likely to emerge, thereby reducing that risk? How are patterns of social identification shaped by conflict? We draw on empirical results regarding the nature and determinants of group identification to develop a simple model that addresses these questions. The model highlights the possibility of vicious and virtuous cycles where conflict and identification patterns reinforce each other. It also shows how processes of ethnic identification amplify the importance of political institutions and traces the effects of national status and perceived differences across ethnic groups. Finally, we demonstrate how a small but sufficiently potent group of ethnic radicals can derail a peaceful equilibrium, leading to the polarization of the entire population. We reexamine several historical cases as well as empirical correlates of civil wars in light of these results.
Journal Article
Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset
In the literature on civil war onset, several empirical results are not robust or replicable across studies. Studies use different definitions of civil war and analyze different time periods, so readers cannot easily determine if differences in empirical results are due to those factors or if most empirical results are just not robust. The authors apply a methodology for organized specification tests to check the robustness of empirical results. They isolate causes of variation in empirical results by using the same definition of civil war and analyzing the same time period while systematically exploring the sensitivity of eighty-eight variables used to explain civil war in the literature. Several relationships with the onset of civil wars prove robust: large population and low income levels, low rates of economic growth, recent political instability and inconsistent democratic institutions, small military establishments and rough terrain, and war-prone and undemocratic neighbors. Variables representing ethnic difference in the population are robust only in relation to lower level armed conflict.
Journal Article
Parochialism as a Central Challenge in Counterinsurgency
Current U.S. practice in Afghanistan may reify social divisions, which undermines institutions critical to postwar stability. America's power preponderance since the end of the Cold War has not translated into an ability to win quickly and decisively against insurgency. The U.S. military, designed to fight Soviet tanks on European battlefields, for the past decade has fought insurgents wearing flip-flops and using improvised explosives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Clear victories in counterinsurgency are rare, and these wars are costly ( 1 ) and long-lasting (table S1). Peace after civil wars, of which insurgencies are a subtype, is tenuous.
Journal Article
Rebel: Military Integration and Civil War Termination
Civil wars are far less likely to end in peace agreements than are international wars, and more than a third of civil wars restart within a few years. This may be due to the time-inconsistency of peace settlements in civil wars: once the rebels demobilize, they lose bargaining power and the government can renege on its promises. This makes rebels reluctant to stop fighting and quick to remobilize for a fight. A self-enforcing agreement could prevent this, but it is difficult to create such agreements. Recent efforts to structure self-enforcing agreements after civil wars have involved the integration of former rebels in a new national army. This solution should make unilateral defection from peace settlements more costly. This is an increasingly popular mechanism used in peace settlements, but it is not yet well understood. We do not know if it works or under what conditions it is likely to be used. This article provides the first systematic study of rebel—military integration agreements and considers if and how such agreements can help build peace. It also analyzes the conditions under which such agreements will be reached and implemented. The analysis suggests that rebel—military integration has not been an effective peace-building mechanism, but this is often due to poor implementation of the agreements.
Journal Article
Political Exclusion, Lost Autonomy, and Escalating Conflict over Self-Determination
Most civil wars are preceded by nonviolent forms of conflict. While it is often assumed that violent and nonviolent conflicts are qualitatively different and have different causes, that assumption is rarely tested empirically. We use a two-step approach to explore whether political exclusion and lost autonomy—two common causes of civil war according to extant literature—are associated with the emergence of nonviolent separatist claims, with the escalation of nonviolent separatist claims to war, or both. Our analysis suggests that different types of grievances matter more at different stages of conflict escalation. We find that political exclusion is a significant correlate of the escalation of nonviolent claims for self-determination to violence, while its association with the emergence of nonviolent separatist claims is weaker. By contrast, lost autonomy is correlated with both the emergence of nonviolent separatist claims and, if autonomy revocations are recent, their escalation to violence. We argue that these results are consistent with both grievance- and opportunity-based theories of conflict.
Journal Article
International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis
International peacebuilding can improve the prospects that a civil war will be resolved. Although peacebuilding strategies must be designed to address particular conflicts, broad parameters that fit most conflicts can be identified. Strategies should address the local roots of hostility, the local capacities for change, and the (net) specific degree of international commitment available to assist sustainable peace. One can conceive of these as the three dimensions of a triangle whose area is the “political space”—or effective capacity—for building peace. We test these propositions with an extensive data set of 124 post–World War II civil wars and find that multilateral, United Nations peace operations make a positive difference. UN peacekeeping is positively correlated with democratization processes after civil war, and multilateral enforcement operations are usually successful in ending the violence. Our study provides broad guidelines for designing the appropriate peacebuilding strategy, given the mix of hostility, local capacities, and international capacities.
Journal Article
Violence Exposure and Ethnic Identification: Evidence from Kashmir
This article studies the conditions that lead peripheral minorities to identify with the state, their ethnic group, or neighboring countries. We contribute to research on separatism and irredentism by examining how violence, psychological distance, and national status determine identification. The analysis uses data from a novel experiment that randomized videos of actual violence in a large, representative survey of the Kashmir Valley region in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, an enduring site of separatist and irredentist conflict. We find that a strong regional identity is a counterweight to irredentism, but violent repression by the state can push members of the minority to identify with an irredentist neighbor. Violence increases perceived distance from the nation and reduces national identification. There is suggestive evidence that these effects are concentrated among individuals with attributes that otherwise predict higher levels of identification with the state. Information about integrative institutions and increased national status brought about by economic growth is insufficient to induce national identification in a context where psychological distance from the nation is large.
Journal Article