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Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly popular in the public sector to improve the cost-efficiency of service delivery. One example is AI-based profiling models in public employment services (PES), which predict a jobseeker’s probability of finding work and are used to segment jobseekers in groups. Profiling models hold the potential to improve identification of jobseekers at-risk of becoming long-term unemployed, but also induce discrimination. Using a recently developed AI-based profiling model of the Flemish PES, we assess to what extent AI-based profiling ‘discriminates’ against jobseekers of foreign origin compared to traditional rule-based profiling approaches. At a maximum level of accuracy, jobseekers of foreign origin who ultimately find a job are 2.6 times more likely to be misclassified as ‘high-risk’ jobseekers. We argue that it is critical that policymakers and caseworkers understand the inherent trade-offs of profiling models, and consider the limitations when integrating these models in daily operations. We develop a graphical tool to visualize the accuracy-equity trade-off in order to facilitate policy discussions.

This article deals with the evolution of a quasi‐market system in the employment services in three countries: Australia, the Netherlands and Belgium. Based on an in‐depth analysis of the reform process over the past two decades, we arrive at the observation that Australia and the Netherlands, unlike Belgium, make comparable choices when restructuring this policy domain, although their context of a welfare state is different. Second, the new structures in those countries which have made the same choices are seen to evolve differently after only a short period of time. This article argues that no convergence towards the same competitive market model is to be found. It provides an institutional explanation by tracing elements of a new system logic which entered the existing structure, and identifying change mechanisms which generate a cumulative process of smaller changes.

Profiling tools help to deliver employment services more efficiently. They can ensure that more costly, intensive services are targeted at jobseekers most at risk of becoming long term unemployed. Moreover, the detailed information on the employment barriers facing jobseekers obtained through the profiling process can be used to tailor services more closely to their individual needs. While other forms of profiling exist, the focus is on statistical profiling, which makes use of statistical models to predict jobseekers’ likelihood of becoming long-term unemployed. An overview on profiling tools currently used throughout the OECD is presented, considerations for the development of such tools, and some insights into the latest developments such as using “click data” on job searches and advanced machine learning techniques. Also discussed are the limitations of statistical profiling tools and options for policymakers on how to address those in the development and implementation of statistical profiling tools.

Profiling tools help to deliver employment services more efficiently. They can ensure that more costly, intensive services are targeted at jobseekers most at risk of becoming long term unemployed. Moreover, the detailed information on the employment barriers facing jobseekers obtained through the profiling process can be used to tailor services more closely to their individual needs. While other forms of profiling exist, the focus is on statistical profiling, which makes use of statistical models to predict jobseekers’ likelihood of becoming long-term unemployed. An overview on profiling tools currently used throughout the OECD is presented, considerations for the development of such tools, and some insights into the latest developments such as using “click data” on job searches and advanced machine learning techniques. Also discussed are the limitations of statistical profiling tools and options for policymakers on how to address those in the development and implementation of statistical profiling tools.

Most Western countries have a long tradition of employment service provision by public bodies and non-profit organisations, but not by for-profit organisations. The creation of a quasi-market arrangement is not a simple choice for government. This paper underscores the difficulties and discusses design options. It calls for a complex balancing act between regulation and the creation of room for market competition, between old and new instruments and procedures, and between efficiency and equity. It identifies as two key issues the need to actively create sufficient room for market competition, and the need for \"positive creaming\" which encourages providers to concentrate their efforts on the most disadvantaged target groups. The paper starts by stating the principles and preconditions for market competition, with a focus on possible quasi-market arrangements for strengthening service provision for the long-term unemployed in Flanders. It sets out four models for contracting with ... La plupart des pays de l'OCDE ont une longue tradition de services de l'emploi fournis par des organismes publics et à but non lucratif, à l'exclusion des organismes à but lucratif. La création d'un quasimarché n'est pas un choix facile pour le gouvernement. Ce document souligne les difficultés et examine les choix possibles dans la conception d'un système quasi-marchand. Il appelle à un jeu d'équilibre entre la régulation et la création de la place pour la concurrence, entre les instruments et les procédures anciens et nouveaux et entre l'efficacité et l'équité. Il identifie comme deux questions clés le besoin de créer activement assez de place pour la concurrence et le besoin d'un \"écrémage positif\" qui encourage les prestataires à concentrer leurs services sur les groupes les plus difficiles à placer. Le document commence en constatant les principes et les conditions préalables à la concurrence de marché, dans la perspective des éventuels dispositifs quasi-marchands pour ...

OECD countries are increasingly interested in structuring government organisation and the financing of job brokerage and employment reintegration services to use market forces. In the Netherlands, the introduction of market mechanisms has been part of a search for a more coherent benefits and activation system. The former Public Employment Service has been split up into a basic employment service provider (Centre for Work and Income) which remains public, and a privatised reintegration services company, which competes with other commercial entities for contracts to promote return to work. Since a large number of municipalities are looking to buy employment services for their social assistance clients in the Netherlands, a quasi-market for reintegration services has emerged, with many purchasers and providers. However, the purchasers use a variety of tendering methods and parts of the market suffer from a lack of transparency. Following the outcome of a tender round held in 2000, in 2001 ... Les pays de l'OCDE s'intéressent de plus en plus à des structures d'organisation gouvernementale et de financement des services de placement et de réintégration faisant appel à des mécanismes concurrentiels. Aux Pays-Bas, l'introduction de mécanismes de marché a fait partie de la recherche d'un système plus cohérent de prestations et d'activation. L'ancien Service public de l'emploi s'est scindé en deux parties constituées d'une part d'un fournisseur de services d'emploi de base (Centre pour le travail et le revenu) qui reste public et d'autre part d'une société privée de services de réintégration, en concurrence avec d'autres organismes commerciaux pour des contrats d'aide au retour à l'emploi. Étant donné qu'un grand nombre de municipalités au Pays-Bas cherchent à acheter des services pour leur bénéficiaires d'aide sociale, un quasi-marché de services de réintégration s'est développé, avec de nombreux acheteurs et fournisseurs. Toutefois, les acheteurs utilisent une large gamme ...