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This paper attempts to analyze and determine future transformation of OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market structure, whether from fractional equilibrium where the OPEC behaves as an arbitrageur player, or where OPEC-Plus act as compatible in a Stackelberg crude oil market conditions. We provided a factual evidence of global energy market structure until 2030 that should ignore suppliers' intentions and the potential of OPEC Plus members cheating in production quotas. We used global dynamic stochastic optimization model (GDSOM) to test the sensitivity of future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market behavior due to demand elasticity rating of full market competition conditions, oligopoly and dynamic stochastic market conditions. Empirical results show that future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market does not presents synergy in dynamic stochastic crude market conditions, which does not comply with the main research rational hypotheses.

This article attempts to explain the various interactions of crude market agents that resulted in a negative oil price in 2020. The study examined Contango conditions and modelled onshore storage capacity and FPSO demand. The empirical results show that in a case of perfect oligopolistic competition, the marginal cost of petroleum inventories would take the position of the price-cost difference for short-term deliveries. So, we point out that the OPEP-Plus producers could serve as Stackelberg's leaders by setting production quotas in the short future.

This article attempts to illustrate major interconnections of oil market factors which drove future oil price below zero in 2020, and the implications of both stockpile conditions and exchange traded fund conduct on futures crude contract delivery. We investigated the inverse backward situation occurred in global oil market and forward agreement, and ran quantile unit root tests for spread of WTI minus Brent for better understanding the phenomena. Observation data confirmed that more over supply came from non-OPEC members' concussion contributed in sending forward commercial contracts below zero instead than stockpile factors. Also, empirical results confirmed that storage capacity alternative values will substitute spread between current tariffs and alternative future in the global oil market.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the underlying global macroeconomic variables of crude oil price dynamics, such as consumer price index, financial variables, money supply, world industrial production and interest rates by using Global Factors Vector Error Correction Model (GFVEC). The analysis of the observed result indicates a systematic response of oil prices to global variables; meanwhile augmenting interest rates have a reverse effect on oil price shocks. On the other hand, we found that financial variables could explain about 60% of the expected future supply and demand shocks in the physical market. Finally, we confirmed that the development of non-conventional oil and the disregard of declared oil production quota by some OPEC members are relevant sources of oil price fluctuations which can disrupt OPEC vision as the main dominant producer in oil industry.