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Wheat rust diseases pose one of the greatest threats to global food security, including subsistence farmers in Ethiopia. The fungal spores transmitting wheat rust are dispersed by wind and can remain infectious after dispersal over long distances. The emergence of new strains of wheat rust has exacerbated the risks of severe crop loss. We describe the construction and deployment of a near real-time early warning system (EWS) for two major wind-dispersed diseases of wheat crops in Ethiopia that combines existing environmental research infrastructures, newly developed tools and scientific expertise across multiple organisations in Ethiopia and the UK. The EWS encompasses a sophisticated framework that integrates field and mobile phone surveillance data, spore dispersal and disease environmental suitability forecasting, as well as communication to policy-makers, advisors and smallholder farmers. The system involves daily automated data flow between two continents during the wheat season in Ethiopia. The framework utilises expertise and environmental research infrastructures from within the cross-disciplinary spectrum of biology, agronomy, meteorology, computer science and telecommunications. The EWS successfully provided timely information to assist policy makers formulate decisions about allocation of limited stock of fungicide during the 2017 and 2018 wheat seasons. Wheat rust alerts and advisories were sent by short message service and reports to 10 000 development agents and approximately 275 000 smallholder farmers in Ethiopia who rely on wheat for subsistence and livelihood security. The framework represents one of the first advanced crop disease EWSs implemented in a developing country. It provides policy-makers, extension agents and farmers with timely, actionable information on priority diseases affecting a staple food crop. The framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast wheat rusts in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops.

Background Forests are a key component of the global carbon cycle, and research is needed into the effects of human-driven and natural processes on their carbon pools. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) produces detailed 3D maps of forest canopy structure from which aboveground carbon density can be estimated. Working with a ALS dataset collected over the 8049-km 2 Wellington Region of New Zealand we create maps of indigenous forest carbon and evaluate the influence of wind by examining how carbon storage varies with aspect. Storms flowing from the west are a common cause of disturbance in this region, and we hypothesised that west-facing forests exposed to these winds would be shorter than those in sheltered east-facing sites. Methods The aboveground carbon density of 31 forest inventory plots located within the ALS survey region were used to develop estimation models relating carbon density to ALS information. Power-law models using rasters of top-of-the-canopy height were compared with models using tree-level information extracted from the ALS dataset. A forest carbon map with spatial resolution of 25 m was generated from ALS maps of forest height and the estimation models. The map was used to evaluate the influences of wind on forests. Results Power-law models were slightly less accurate than tree-centric models (RMSE 35% vs 32%) but were selected for map generation for computational efficiency. The carbon map comprised 4.5 million natural forest pixels within which canopy height had been measured by ALS, providing an unprecedented dataset with which to examine drivers of carbon density. Forests facing in the direction of westerly storms stored less carbon, as hypothesised. They had much greater above-ground carbon density for a given height than any of 14 tropical forests previously analysed by the same approach, and had exceptionally high basal areas for their height. We speculate that strong winds have kept forests short without impeding basal area growth. Conclusion Simple estimation models based on top-of-the canopy height are almost as accurate as state-of-the-art tree-centric approaches, which require more computing power. High-resolution carbon maps produced by ALS provide powerful datasets for evaluating the environmental drivers of forest structure, such as wind.

BackgroundForests are a key component of the global carbon cycle, and research is needed into the effects of human-driven and natural processes on their carbon pools. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) produces detailed 3D maps of forest canopy structure from which aboveground carbon density can be estimated. Working with a ALS dataset collected over the 8049-km2 Wellington Region of New Zealand we create maps of indigenous forest carbon and evaluate the influence of wind by examining how carbon storage varies with aspect. Storms flowing from the west are a common cause of disturbance in this region, and we hypothesised that west-facing forests exposed to these winds would be shorter than those in sheltered east-facing sites.MethodsThe aboveground carbon density of 31 forest inventory plots located within the ALS survey region were used to develop estimation models relating carbon density to ALS information. Power-law models using rasters of top-of-the-canopy height were compared with models using tree-level information extracted from the ALS dataset. A forest carbon map with spatial resolution of 25 m was generated from ALS maps of forest height and the estimation models. The map was used to evaluate the influences of wind on forests.ResultsPower-law models were slightly less accurate than tree-centric models (RMSE 35% vs 32%) but were selected for map generation for computational efficiency. The carbon map comprised 4.5 million natural forest pixels within which canopy height had been measured by ALS, providing an unprecedented dataset with which to examine drivers of carbon density. Forests facing in the direction of westerly storms stored less carbon, as hypothesised. They had much greater above-ground carbon density for a given height than any of 14 tropical forests previously analysed by the same approach, and had exceptionally high basal areas for their height. We speculate that strong winds have kept forests short without impeding basal area growth.ConclusionSimple estimation models based on top-of-the canopy height are almost as accurate as state-of-the-art tree-centric approaches, which require more computing power. High-resolution carbon maps produced by ALS provide powerful datasets for evaluating the environmental drivers of forest structure, such as wind.

BackgroundForests are a key component of the global carbon cycle, and research is needed into the effects of human-driven and natural processes on their carbon pools. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) produces detailed 3D maps of forest canopy structure from which aboveground carbon density can be estimated. Working with a ALS dataset collected over the 8049-km2 Wellington Region of New Zealand we create maps of indigenous forest carbon and evaluate the influence of wind by examining how carbon storage varies with aspect. Storms flowing from the west are a common cause of disturbance in this region, and we hypothesised that west-facing forests exposed to these winds would be shorter than those in sheltered east-facing sites.MethodsThe aboveground carbon density of 31 forest inventory plots located within the ALS survey region were used to develop estimation models relating carbon density to ALS information. Power-law models using rasters of top-of-the-canopy height were compared with models using tree-level information extracted from the ALS dataset. A forest carbon map with spatial resolution of 25 m was generated from ALS maps of forest height and the estimation models. The map was used to evaluate the influences of wind on forests.ResultsPower-law models were slightly less accurate than tree-centric models (RMSE 35% vs 32%) but were selected for map generation for computational efficiency. The carbon map comprised 4.5 million natural forest pixels within which canopy height had been measured by ALS, providing an unprecedented dataset with which to examine drivers of carbon density. Forests facing in the direction of westerly storms stored less carbon, as hypothesised. They had much greater above-ground carbon density for a given height than any of 14 tropical forests previously analysed by the same approach, and had exceptionally high basal areas for their height. We speculate that strong winds have kept forests short without impeding basal area growth.ConclusionSimple estimation models based on top-of-the canopy height are almost as accurate as state-of-the-art tree-centric approaches, which require more computing power. High-resolution carbon maps produced by ALS provide powerful datasets for evaluating the environmental drivers of forest structure, such as wind.