Explore the vast range of titles available.

The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink has been shown to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 through 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from (i) a continuous improvement of the observations, i.e. the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) v1.5 database and (ii) a newly developed technique to interpolate the observations in space and time. In particular, we use a two-step neural network approach to reconstruct basin-wide monthly maps of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) at a resolution of 1° × 1°. From those, we compute the air–sea CO2 flux maps using a standard gas exchange parameterization and high-resolution wind speeds. The neural networks fit the observed pCO2 data with a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 10 μatm and with almost no bias. A check against independent time-series data and new data from SOCAT v2 reveals a larger RMSE of 22.8 μatm for the entire Atlantic Ocean, which decreases to 16.3 μatm for data south of 40° N. We estimate a decadal mean uptake flux of −0.45 ± 0.15 Pg C yr−1 for the Atlantic between 44° S and 79° N, representing the sum of a strong uptake north of 18° N (−0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr−1), outgassing in the tropics (18° S–18° N, 0.11 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1), and uptake in the subtropical/temperate South Atlantic south of 18° S (−0.16 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1), consistent with recent studies. The strongest seasonal variability of the CO2 flux occurs in the temperature-driven subtropical North Atlantic, with uptake in winter and outgassing in summer. The seasonal cycle is antiphased in the subpolar latitudes relative to the subtropics largely as a result of the biologically driven winter-to-summer drawdown of CO2. Over the 10 yr analysis period (1998 through 2007), sea surface pCO2 increased faster than that of the atmosphere in large areas poleward of 40° N, while in other regions of the North Atlantic the sea surface pCO2 increased at a slower rate, resulting in a barely changing Atlantic carbon sink north of the Equator (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). Surface ocean pCO2 increased at a slower rate relative to atmospheric CO2 over most of the Atlantic south of the Equator, leading to a substantial trend toward a stronger CO2 sink for the entire South Atlantic (−0.14 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). In contrast to the 10 yr trends, the Atlantic Ocean carbon sink varies relatively little on inter-annual timescales (±0.04 Pg C yr−1; 1 σ).

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea–air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types – taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea–air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992–2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr-1 (1992–2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

The ocean's role in modulating the observed 1–7 Pg C yr−1 inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate is an important, but poorly constrained process due to current spatio-temporal limitations in ocean carbon measurements. Here, we investigate and develop a non-linear empirical approach to predict inorganic CO2 concentrations (total carbon dioxide (CT) and total alkalinity (AT)) in the global ocean mixed layer from hydrographic properties (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nutrients). The benefit of this approach is that once the empirical relationship is established, it can be applied to hydrographic datasets that have better spatio-temporal coverage, and therefore provide an additional constraint to diagnose ocean carbon dynamics globally. Previous empirical approaches have employed multiple linear regressions (MLR) and relied on ad hoc geographic and temporal partitioning of carbon data to constrain complex global carbon dynamics in the mixed layer. Synthesizing a new global CT/AT carbon bottle dataset consisting of ~33 000 measurements in the open ocean mixed layer, we develop a neural network based approach to better constrain the non-linear carbon system. The approach classifies features in the global biogeochemical dataset based on their similarity and homogeneity in a self-organizing map (SOM; Kohonen, 1988). After the initial SOM analysis, which includes geographic constraints, we apply a local linear optimizer to the neural network, which considerably enhances the predictive skill of the new approach. We call this new approach SOMLO, or self-organizing multiple linear output. Using independent bottle carbon data, we compare a traditional MLR analysis to our SOMLO approach to capture the spatial CT and AT distributions. We find the SOMLO approach improves predictive skill globally by 19% for CT, with a global capacity to predict CT to within 10.9 μmol kg−1 (9.2 μmol kg−1 for AT). The non-linear SOMLO approach is particularly powerful in complex but important regions like the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic and equatorial Pacific, where residual standard errors were reduced between 25 and 40% over traditional linear methods. We further test the SOMLO technique using the Bermuda Atlantic time series (BATS) and Hawaiian ocean time series (HOT) datasets, where hydrographic data was capable of explaining 90% of the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability at those multi-decadal time-series stations.

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem – from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem – from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

The ocean has become more acidic over the last 200 years in response increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Documenting how the ocean has changed is critical for assessing how these changes impact marine ecosystems and for the management of marine resources. Here we use present-day ocean carbon observations, from shelf and offshore waters around Australia, combined with neural network mapping of CO2, sea surface temperature, and salinity to estimate the current seasonal and regional distributions of carbonate chemistry (pH and aragonite saturation state). The observed changes in atmospheric CO2 and sea surface temperature (SST) and climatological salinity are then used to reconstruct pH and aragonite saturation state changes over the last 140 years (1870–2013). The comparison with data collected at Integrated Marine Observing System National Reference Station sites located on the shelf around Australia shows that both the mean state and seasonality in the present day are well represented, with the exception of sites such as the Great Barrier Reef. Our reconstruction predicts that since 1870 decrease in aragonite saturation state of 0.48 and of 0.09 in pH has occurred in response to increasing oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2. Large seasonal variability in pH and aragonite saturation state occur in southwestern Australia driven by ocean dynamics (mixing) and in the Tasman Sea by seasonal warming (in the case of the aragonite saturation state). The seasonal and historical changes in aragonite saturation state and pH have different spatial patterns and suggest that the biological responses to ocean acidification are likely to be non-uniform depending on the relative sensitivity of organisms to shifts in pH and saturation state. This new historical reconstruction provides an important link to biological observations that will help to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification.

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO.sub.2 ), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO.sub.2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO.sub.2 partial pressure (pCO.sub.2) and 14 different pCO.sub.2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO.sub.2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO.sub.2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO.sub.2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO.sub.2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO.sub.2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr.sup.-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO.sub.2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO.sub.2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr.sup.-1 (1992-2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea–air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types – taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea–air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr−1 (standard deviation over 1992–2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is −1.75 PgC yr−1 (1992–2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

Data-based projections suggest that the natural CO 2 cycle could be amplified by up to ten times by 2100 in some oceanic regions if atmospheric CO 2 concentrations continue to increase, which could detrimentally affect major fisheries. Marine CO 2 is a potential threat to fisheries Elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in seawater, a phenomenon known as hypercapnia, can have detrimental effects on marine animals. This study finds that some oceanic regions may undergo an up to tenfold amplification of the natural cycle of carbon dioxide by 2100, if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise throughout this century. It forecasts the onset of ocean hypercapnia events for atmospheric CO 2 concentrations higher than 650 p.p.m., with hypercapnia spreading to up to half of the surface ocean by the year 2100 under a high carbon dioxide emission scenario, with potential implications for major fisheries. High carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 . Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO 2 concentration, but there is a lack of relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO 2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. We predict that the present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO 2 concentration will be amplified by up to tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO 2 concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 11 . The findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth system climate models 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 . Our predicted amplification of the annual CO 2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than is expected from average atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean ‘CO 2 hotspots’ evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO 2 concentration and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO 2 in the oceans that lowers the buffer capacity in these regions, causing a nonlinear amplification of CO 2 concentration over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia (when the partial pressure of CO 2 in sea-water exceeds 1,000 micro-atmospheres) is forecast for atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that exceed 650 parts per million, with hypercapnia expected in up to half the surface ocean by 2100, assuming a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) 11 . Such extensive ocean hypercapnia has detrimental implications for fisheries during the twenty-first century.