Explore the vast range of titles available.

AIM: Correlative models that forecast extinction risk from climate change and invasion risks following species introductions, depend on the assumption that species' current distributions reflect their climate tolerances (‘climatic equilibrium’). This assumption has rarely been tested with independent distribution data, and studies that have done so have focused on species that are widespread or weedy in their native range. We use independent data to test climatic equilibrium for a broadly representative group of species, and ask whether there are any general indicators that can be used to identify when equilibrium occurs. LOCATION: Europe and contiguous USA. METHODS: We contrasted the climate conditions occupied by 51 plant species in their native (European) and naturalized (USA) distributions by applying kernel smoothers to species' occurrence densities. We asked whether species had naturalized in climate conditions that differ from their native ranges, suggesting climatic disequilibrium in the native range, and whether characteristics of species' native distributions correspond with climatic equilibrium. RESULTS: A large proportion of species' naturalized distributions occurred outside the climatic conditions occupied in their native ranges: for 22 species, the majority of their naturalized ranges fell outside their native climate conditions. Our analyses revealed large areas in Europe that species do not occupy, but which match climatic conditions occupied in the USA, suggesting a high degree of climatic disequilibrium in the native range. Disequilibrium was most severe for species with native ranges that are small and occupy a narrow range of climatic conditions. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that the direct effects of climate on species distributions have been widely overestimated, and that previous large‐scale validations of the equilibrium assumption using species' native and naturalized distributions are not generally applicable. Non‐climatic range limitations are likely to be the norm, rather than the exception, and pose added risks for species under climate change.

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species’ sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species’ climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems. Epiphytic plants are a highly biodiverse group of tropical species at high risk of extinction from climate change. In this study, a multi-year transplant experiment, paired with distributional surveys in Central America, shows that many of these species may not survive projected changes in climate, providing empirical evidence for hypotheses raised by previous studies.

Predation by exotic species has caused the extinction of many native animal species on islands, whereas competition from exotic plants has caused few native plant extinctions. Exotic plant addition to islands is highly nonrandom, with an almost perfect 1 to 1 match between the number of naturalized and native plant species on oceanic islands. Here, we evaluate several alternative implications of these findings. Does the consistency of increase in plant richness across islands imply that a saturation point in species richness has been reached? If not, should we expect total plant richness to continue to increase as new species are added? Finally, is the rarity of native plant extinctions to date a misleading measure of the impact of past invasions, one that hides an extinction debt that will be paid in the future? By analyzing historical records, we show that the number of naturalized plant species has increased linearly over time on many individual islands. Further, the mean ratio of naturalized to native plant species across islands has changed steadily for nearly two centuries. These patterns suggest that many more species will become naturalized on islands in the future. We also discuss how dynamics of invasion bear upon alternative saturation scenarios and the implications these scenarios have for the future retention or extinction of native plant species. Finally, we identify invasion-motivated research gaps (propagule pressure, time-lags to extinction, abundance shifts, and loss of area) that can aid in forecasting extinction and in developing a more comprehensive theory of species extinctions.

Non-native species can cause the loss of biological diversity (i.e., genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity) and threaten the well-being of humans when they become invasive. In some cases, however, they can also provide conservation benefits. We examined the ways in which non-native species currently contribute to conservation objectives. These include, for example, providing habitat or food resources to rare species, serving as functional substitutes for extinct taxa, and providing desirable ecosystem functions. We speculate that non-native species might contribute to achieving conservation goals in the future because they may be more likely than native species to persist and provide ecosystem services in areas where climate and land use are changing rapidly and because they may evolve into new and endemic taxa. The management of non-native species and their potential integration into conservation plans depends on how conservation goals are set in the future. A fraction of non-native species will continue to cause biological and economic damage, and substantial uncertainty surrounds the potential future effects of all non-native species. Nevertheless, we predict the proportion of non-native species that are viewed as benign or even desirable will slowly increase over time as their potential contributions to society and to achieving conservation objectives become well recognized and realized. Las especies exóticas pueden causar la pérdida de diversidad biológica (i. e., diversidad genética, de especies y ecosistemas) y amenazar el bienestar de humanos cuando se vuelven invasoras. Sin embargo, en algunos casos también pueden proporcionar beneficios de conservación. Examinamos las formas en que las especies exóticas contribuyen actualmente a objetivos de conservación. Estos incluyen, por ejemplo, proporcionar hábitat o recursos alimenticios para especies raras, fungir como sustitutos funcionales de taxa extintos y proporcionar funciones ecosistémicas deseables. Especulamos que las especies exóticas pueden contribuir a lograr metas de conservación en el futuro porque su probabilidad de persistir y proporcionar servicios ecosistémicos es mayor que la de especies nativas en áreas donde el clima y el uso de suelos están cambiando rápidamente y porque pueden evolucionar hacia taxa nuevos y endémicos. El manejo de especies exóticas y su potencial integración en planes de conservación depende de cómo se definen las metas de conservación en el futuro. Una fracción de especies exóticas continuará causando daños biológicos y económicos, y una considerable incertidumbre rodea a los futuros efectos potenciales de todas las especies exóticas. Sin embargo, pronosticamos que la proporción de especies exóticas que son vistas como benignas o aun deseables incrementará lentamente con el tiempo a medida que sus contribuciones potenciales a la sociedad y al logro de objetivos de conservación sean bien reconocidas y entendidas.

AIM: A major implication of natural selection is that species from different parts of the world will vary in their efficiency in converting resources into offspring for a given type of environment. This insight, articulated by Darwin, is usually overlooked in more recent studies of invasion biology that are often based on the more modern Eltonian perspective of imbalanced ecosystems. We formulate a renewed Darwinian framework for invasion biology, the evolutionary imbalance hypothesis (EIH), based only on the action of natural selection in historically isolated populations operating within a global network of repeated environments. This framework predicts that successful invaders are more likely to come from biotic regions of high genetic potential (with independent lineages of large population size), experiencing a given environment for many generations and under strong competition from other lineages. LOCATION: Global. METHODS: We test the predictive power of this framework by examining disparities in recent species exchanges between global biotic regions, including patterns of plant invasions across temperate regions and exchanges of aquatic fauna as a result of modern canal building. RESULTS: Our framework successfully predicts global invasion patterns using phylogenetic diversity of the world's biotic regions as a proxy that reflects their genetic potential, historical stability and competitive intensity, in line with the Darwinian expectation. Floristic regions of higher phylogenetic diversity are more likely to be source areas of invasive plants, and regions of lower phylogenetic diversity are more likely to be invaded. Similar patterns are evident for formerly isolated marine or freshwater assemblages that have been connected via canals. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We advocate an approach to understanding modern species invasions that recognizes the potential significance of both the original Darwinian explanation and the more modern view that emphasizes novel ecological or evolutionary mechanisms arising in the introduced range. Moreover, if biological invasions are a natural outcome of Darwinian evolution in an increasingly connected world, then invasive species should continue to displace native species and drive widespread shifts in the functioning of ecosystems.

Studies of biotic homogenization have focused primarily on characterizing changes that have occurred between some past baseline and the present day. In order to understand how homogenization may change in the future, it is important to contextualize the processes driving these changes. Here, we examine empirical patterns of change in taxonomic similarity among oceanic island plant and bird assemblages. We use these empirical cases to unpack dynamic properties of biotic homogenization, thereby elucidating two important factors that have received little attention: 1) initial similarity and 2) the influence of six classes of introduction and extinction events. We use Jaccard’s Index to explore the interplay among these factors in determining the changes in similarity that have occurred between human settlement and the present. Specifically, we develop general formulas for changes in similarity resulting from each of the six types of introductions and extinctions, so that the effect of each event type is formulated in terms of initial similarity and species richness. We then apply these insights to project how similarity levels would change in the future if the present patterns of introductions and extinctions continue. We show that the six event types, along with initial similarity, can show dramatically different behavior in different systems, leading to widely variable influences on similarity. Plant and bird biotas have homogenized only slightly to date, but their trajectories of change are highly divergent. Although existing patterns of colonization and extinction might not continue unchanged, if they were to do so then plant assemblages would show little additional change, whereas bird assemblages would become much more strongly homogenized. Our results suggest that moderate changes in similarity observed to date mask the potential for more dramatic changes in the future, and that the interaction among initial similarity and differential introduction and extinction regimes drives these dynamics.

Aim: We assessed the generality of the island rule in a database comprising 1593 populations of insular mammals (439 species, including 63 species of fossil mammals), and tested whether observed patterns differed among taxonomic and functional groups. Location: Islands world-wide. Methods: We measured museum specimens (fossil mammals) and reviewed the literature to compile a database of insular animal body size (S i = mean mass of individuals from an insular population divided by that of individuals from an ancestral or mainland population, M). We used linear regressions to investigate the relationship between S i and M, and ANCOVA to compare trends among taxonomic and functional groups. Results: S i was significantly and negatively related to the mass of the ancestral or mainland population across all mammals and within all orders of extant mammals analysed, and across palaeo-insular (considered separately) mammals as well. Insular body size was significantly smaller for bats and insectivores than for the other orders studied here, but significantly larger for mammals that utilized aquatic prey than for those restricted to terrestrial prey. Main conclusions: The island rule appears to be a pervasive pattern, exhibited by mammals from a broad range of orders, functional groups and time periods. There remains, however, much scatter about the general trend; this residual variation may be highly informative as it appears consistent with differences among species, islands and environmental characteristics hypothesized to influence body size evolution in general. The more pronounced gigantism and dwarfism of palaeo-insular mammals, in particular, is consistent with a hypothesis that emphasizes the importance of ecological interactions (time in isolation from mammalian predators and competitors was 0.1 to > 1.0 Myr for palaeo-insular mammals, but < 0.01 Myr for extant populations of insular mammals). While ecological displacement may be a major force driving diversification in body size in high-diversity biotas, ecological release in species-poor biotas often results in the convergence of insular mammals on the size of intermediate but absent species.

Aim We investigated the hypothesis that the insular body size of mammals results from selective forces whose influence varies with characteristics of the focal islands and the focal species, and with interactions among species (ecological displacement and release). Location Islands world‐wide. Methods We assembled data on the geographic characteristics (area, isolation, maximum elevation, latitude) and climate (annual averages and seasonality of temperature and precipitation) of islands, and on the ecological and morphological characteristics of focal species (number of mammalian competitors and predators, diet, body size of mainland reference populations) that were most relevant to our hypothesis (385 insular populations from 98 species of extant, non‐volant mammals across 248 islands). We used regression tree analyses to examine the hypothesized contextual importance of these factors in explaining variation in the insular body size of mammals. Results The results of regression tree analyses were consistent with predictions based on hypotheses of ecological release (more pronounced changes in body size on islands lacking mammalian competitors or predators), immigrant selection (more pronounced gigantism in small species inhabiting more isolated islands), thermoregulation and endurance during periods of climatic or environmental stress (more pronounced gigantism of small mammals on islands of higher latitudes or on those with colder and more seasonal climates), and resource subsidies (larger body size for mammals that utilize aquatic prey). The results, however, were not consistent with a prediction based on resource limitation and island area; that is, the insular body size of large mammals was not positively correlated with island area. Main conclusions These results support the hypothesis that the body size evolution of insular mammals is influenced by a combination of selective forces whose relative importance and nature of influence are contextual. While there may exist a theoretical optimal body size for mammals in general, the optimum for a particular insular population varies in a predictable manner with characteristics of the islands and the species, and with interactions among species. This study did, however, produce some unanticipated results that merit further study – patterns associated with Bergmann’s rule are amplified on islands, and the body size of small mammals appears to peak at intermediate and not maximum values of latitude and island isolation.

Species richness is decreasing at a global scale. At subglobal scales, that is, within any defined area less extensive than the globe, species richness will increase when the number of nonnative species becoming naturalized is greater than the number of native species becoming extinct. Determining whether this has occurred is usually difficult because detailed records of species extinctions and naturalizations are rare; these records often exist, however, for oceanic islands. Here we show that species richness on oceanic islands has remained relatively unchanged for land birds, with the number of naturalizations being roughly equal to the number of extinctions, and has increased dramatically for vascular plants, with the number of naturalizations greatly exceeding the number of extinctions. In fact, for plants, the net number of species on islands has approximately doubled. We show further that these patterns are robust to differences in the history of human occupation of these islands and to the possibility of undocumented species extinctions. These results suggest that species richness may be increasing at subglobal scales for many groups and that future research should address what consequences this may have on ecological processes.

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR. The pace of modern climate change demands decision making with imperfect information, and tools that elucidate this uncertainty and integrate scientific information and social values are urgently needed. We present a heuristic tool that incorporates both ecological and social criteria in a multidimensional decision-making framework. For visualization purposes, we collapse these criteria into 4 classes that can be depicted in graphical 2-D space. This framework offers a pragmatic approach for summarizing key dimensions of MR: capturing uncertainty in the evaluation criteria, creating transparency in the evaluation process, and recognizing the inherent tradeoffs that different stakeholders bring to evaluation of MR and its alternatives.