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result(s) for
"Scaburri, Alessandra"
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Simulating the Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Densely Populated Areas as Part of Contingency Plans to Establish the Best Control Options
by
Bellini, Silvia
,
Alborali, Giovanni Loris
,
Scaburri, Alessandra
in
Animal diseases
,
Animal products
,
Animals
2025
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock caused by the FMD virus (FMDV). It is not dangerous to humans but can cause severe disruption to the farming sector and hampers trade in animals and animal products. Given the characteristic of transmissibility of the virus, the legislation in force in the European Union requires that some control activities be initiated in peacetime: the so-called “emergency preparedness”. As part of a research project on FMD, a dynamic transmission model was developed to test the effectiveness of the main control strategies in different livestock settings in Italy. This manuscript focuses on the control of the disease in densely populated livestock areas (DPLAs). Reduction in farm density was simulated to identify a threshold density compatible with disease control in the study area and to understand whether this was acceptable in terms of the sustainability of the livestock production system. Considering that in some municipalities the density of animals greatly exceeded the identified threshold, we adopted an original risk-based approach aimed at identifying farms which were most likely to play a central role in FMDV transmission. This approach has proven to be the most effective in controlling the spread of FMDV and can be proposed for practical applications where limited information on contacts between farms is available.
Journal Article
African Swine Fever (ASF): A Study to Identify Risk Factors Associated with the Introduction of the Disease into Pig Farms
by
Bellini, Silvia
,
Maggiano, Valentina
,
Tonni, Matteo
in
African swine fever
,
African Swine Fever - epidemiology
,
African Swine Fever - prevention & control
2026
In 2023, ASF was recognized in Lombardy in wild boars, but shortly thereafter the disease was also identified in pig farms, with serious economic repercussions for the entire national pig sector. To identify factors related to the introduction of the infection into pig farms, a case–control study was conducted with the aim of gaining knowledge on the risk and protective factors involved in the introduction of the ASF virus into intensive pig farms. To this end, a questionnaire was developed on risk factors related to ASFV transmission into pig farms and on good management and biosecurity practices. The results of the study showed that measures aimed at strengthening the segregation of the farm from the external environment (external biosecurity), such as the mandatory passage through a hygiene lock upon entry, the presence of a hygiene lock for farm personnel and external visitors, the presence of special equipment and disinfection points at the entrance to the sheds, the loading of dead pigs outside the animal housing area and the ownership of non-adjacent agricultural land, were associated with a reduced risk. This information, if effectively communicated, could be of direct practical value to farmers to ensure the successful implementation of farm biosecurity.
Journal Article
Modelling the Spread of Foot and Mouth Disease in Different Livestock Settings in Italy to Assess the Cost Effectiveness of Potential Control Strategies
by
Bellato, Alessandro
,
Bellini, Silvia
,
Scaburri, Alessandra
in
Analysis
,
Animal diseases
,
By products
2025
Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) transmission is strongly related to the distribution and density of FMD-susceptible animals. In this study, we applied a model to simulate the spread of FMD in three Italian regions with different livestock demographics (densely, medium, and sparsely populated) in order to assess the cost effectiveness of the disease control options within the framework of the Italian contingency plan. The results of the simulations showed that stamping-out was sufficient to control the outbreak in the sparsely and medium populated areas whereas, in densely populated areas, only vaccinations could effectively control an outbreak. We also estimated the economic resources needed for the adoption of different control strategies, considering livestock indemnity, cleaning, disinfection and disposal, surveillance, vaccination and personnel costs. The results obtained showed that indemnity due to culling had the highest impact on the costs in all scenarios and vaccination resulted in the most cost-effective option to apply in densely populated livestock areas. The results of this study can be a useful aid to Competent Authorities in the preparation of contingency plans against FMD.
Journal Article
Mammalian and avian species quantification in homogenized foods: real time PCR and digital PCR as tools for label compliance controls
2024
Currently food fraud and authenticity of products composition are topics of great concern; ingredients quantification could allow to identify small amounts of contaminats or voluntary addition of improper components. Many molecular methods are available for species identification in foodstuffs but, for a better application, they should not be affected by the interference of other ingredients. The main purpose of this work was to verify the Real Time PCR and the Digital PCR (dPCR) quantification performances on baby food samples, specifically selected for their high miscibility to limit variability; chicken was selected as target to verify the performance of quantification of methods after having spiked the same quantity in different baby foods. The other aims were: (1) to verify a constant genome copies ratio existence between mammalian and avian species (2) to verify the dPCR performance, set up on housekeeping, to quantify mammalian and avian species in commercial products. Digital PCR showed fewer differences respect to Real Time PCR, at the same 15% w/w chicken spiking level. Despite the constant difference between mammalian and avian genome copies, in samples with the same spiking weight, the confidence intervals increasing towards the extreme values, made impossible to use genome copies ratio as a sort of correction factor between species. Finally, the dPCR system using the myostatin housekeeping gene to determine the chicken content seemed reliable to verify the labelling compliance in meat-based commercial products.
Journal Article
Assessing the Epidemiology of Rotavirus A, B, C and H in Diarrheic Pigs of Different Ages in Northern Italy
by
Martella, Vito
,
Ferrari, Elena
,
Alborali, Giovanni Loris
in
Diarrhea
,
enteric pathogens
,
Enteritis
2022
Rotaviruses are classified in 10 groups (A to J), where rotavirus A (RVA) is the major cause of diarrhea in humans and animals. With some exceptions, there is scarce information on the epidemiology of non-A rotaviruses in human and animal hosts. Currently, five species (A, B, C, E and H) have been identified in pigs. In the present study we investigated the prevalence of RVA, RVB, RVC and RVH among diarrheic pigs of different ages, in different seasons and in the presence of co-infections. Two molecular assays were developed for the detection of porcine RVA, RVB, RVC and RVH and were used to screen 962 stool specimens from suckling, weaning and fattening pigs with acute enteritis. Overall, rotaviruses were detected in a high percentage of samples (78%), with RVA being predominant (53%), followed by RVC (45%), RVB (43%) and RVH (14%). RVA was more common in the suckling (58%) and weaning cohorts (64%), while RVB, RVC and RVH were also frequently detected in fattening pigs. Only RVA and RVB infections followed a seasonal trend and exhibited age-related differences. Rotavirus infections were frequently present in combination with other pathogens. The present study depicts a portrait of rich rotavirus diversity in porcine herds, identifying seasonal and age-related patterns of circulation of the different rotavirus species in the surveyed areas.
Journal Article
Atmospheric fine particulate matter and breast cancer mortality: a population-based cohort study
by
Cau, Alessandro
,
Bertoldi, Martina
,
Favia, Imma
in
Aged
,
Air Movements
,
Air Pollutants - analysis
2016
ObjectivesAtmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has multiple adverse effects on human health. Global atmospheric levels of PM2.5 increased by 0.55 μg/m3/year (2.1%/year) from 1998 through 2012. There is evidence of a causal relationship between atmospheric PM2.5 and breast cancer (BC) incidence, but few studies have investigated BC mortality and atmospheric PM2.5. We investigated BC mortality in relation to atmospheric PM2.5 levels among patients living in Varese Province, northern Italy.MethodsWe selected female BC cases, archived in the local population-based cancer registry, diagnosed at age 50–69 years, between 2003 and 2009. The geographic coordinates of each woman's place of residence were identified, and individual PM2.5 exposures were assessed from satellite data. Grade, stage, age at diagnosis, period of diagnosis and participation in BC screening were potential confounders. Kaplan-Meir and Nelson-Aalen methods were used to test for mortality differences in relation to PM2.5 quartiles. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modelling estimated HRs and 95% CIs of BC death in relation to PM2.5 exposure.ResultsOf 2021 BC cases, 325 died during follow-up to 31 December 2013, 246 for BC. Risk of BC death was significantly higher for all three upper quartiles of PM2.5 exposure compared to the lowest, with HRs of death: 1.82 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.89), 1.73 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.67) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.75).ConclusionsOur study indicates that the risk of BC mortality increases with PM2.5 exposure. Although additional research is required to confirm these findings, they are further evidence that PM2.5 exposure is harmful and indicate an urgent need to improve global air quality.
Journal Article
Epidemiological Features of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 in a Densely Populated Area of Lombardy (Italy) during the Epidemic Season 2021–2022
by
Colella, Erika Molica
,
Farioli, Marco
,
Bellini, Silvia
in
Avian flu
,
avian influenza
,
Avian influenza viruses
2022
In the last two years, there have been three major epidemic seasons in the territory of the European Union and the HPAI epizootic in 2021–2022 is the most severe in recent history. In Italy, the disease was introduced to dense poultry areas with serious economic consequences for the entire sector. In Lombardy, the analysis of the risk factors was carried out, also taking into account the density of domestic birds. In the most affected areas, 66.7% of the outbreaks occurred in the areas with the highest poultry density and the likelihood of an outbreak occurring increased with an increase in the density of birds per km2. In cells 10 × 10 km with a density greater than 10,000 birds/km2, the probability of outbreak occurrence was over 66.7%. The provinces involved in the last epidemic were the same involved in previous epidemics and, given the risk factors present in the area, it is plausible that the risk remains high also for future epidemic seasons. Therefore, to avoid the repetition of similar events, certain control measures shall be strengthened and vaccination considered as a complementary tool for the control of HPAI virus in risk areas.
Journal Article
Analysis of Risk Factors for African Swine Fever in Lombardy to Identify Pig Holdings and Areas Most at Risk of Introduction in Order to Plan Preventive Measures
by
Bellini, Silvia
,
Scaburri, Alessandra
,
Tironi, Marco
in
African swine fever
,
area
,
European Union
2020
In 2019, the area of the European Union (EU) affected by African swine fever (ASF) expanded progressively in a southwestern direction from Baltic and eastern countries. The disease can severely affect and disrupt regional and international trade of pigs and pork products with serious socioeconomic damages to the pig industry. Lombardy is one of the most important European pig producers and the introduction of ASF into the pig population could adversely affect the entire sector. A study was carried out to identify the farms and territories in the region most at risk of ASF introduction to plan preventive measures. The pig holdings were identified through a descriptive analysis of pig movements and Social Network Analysis (SNA), while, for the identification of the most exposed municipalities, an assessment of risk factors was carried out using the ranking of summed scores attributed to the Z-score. From the analysis, it was found that 109 municipalities and 297 pig holdings of the region were potentially more at risk, and these holdings were selected for target surveillance. This information was provided to veterinary authority to target surveillance in pig farms, in order to early detect a possible incursion of ASF and prevent its spread.
Journal Article
Evaluation of the Risk of African Swine Fever Virus Transmission at the Interface between Feral and Domestic Pigs in Lombardy, with a View to Establishing Preventive Measures for Domestic Pigs
by
Marracci, Massimo
,
Bellini, Silvia
,
Calò, Stefania
in
African swine fever
,
African swine fever virus
,
Agriculture
2023
African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread worldwide, and has reached multiple countries across Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, and the Pacific, representing a serious economic burden threatening pig health and welfare, as well as food security. The disease affects domestic pigs and wild boar, and in several European countries the disease is endemic in wild boars. The lack of vaccines or effective treatments highlights the importance of effective control measures used to keep domestic and feral pigs separated to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the study of the livestock–wildlife interface is quite complex and has many aspects to consider, including the uncertainty of wild-boar population data. In this study, we determined the risk of spread of the ASF virus at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boars using indicators that can indirectly indicate the presence of wild boars in order to target specific control measures in the highest risk areas. The results of the study were compared with those obtained by Pittiglio, in which the population data for wild boars was estimated using a geostatistical method and similar results were obtained. However, the present study used specific information relating to the wild-boar population and this allowed us to use fewer variables.
Journal Article
Analysis of Bee Population Decline in Lombardy during the Period 2014–2016 and Identification of High-Risk Areas
by
Farioli, Marco
,
Bellini, Silvia
,
Cerioli, Monica Pierangela
in
Agricultural land
,
apiaries
,
Apiculture
2021
The first events of bee decline in Italy were reported during 1999. Since then, population decline has frequently been reported in Lombardy. In this study, the association between bee decline and the type of land surrounding the apiary was evaluated. A risk map was developed to identify areas with the highest risk of decline. Apiaries in Lombardy were selected from the national beekeeping database (BDA). The study period was from 2014 to 2016. Apiaries were deemed “declined” if they reported at least one event of decline or tested positive for plant protection products; apiaries were “not declined” if they did not report any events of bee decline during the study period. Out of 14,188 apiaries extracted from the BDA, 80 were considered declined. The probability of an apiary being declined increases by 10% in orchards and by 2% in arable land for each additional km2 of land occupied by these crops. The study showed an association between bee decline and the type of territory surrounding the apiaries, and the areas at the greatest risk of decline in Lombardy were identified. This information can be used by Veterinary Services as a predictive parameter for planning prevention and control activities.
Journal Article