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"Schaefer, Kevin"
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Estimating 1992-2000 average active layer thickness on the Alaskan North Slope from remotely sensed surface subsidence
The measurement of temporal changes in active layer thickness (ALT) is crucial to monitoring permafrost degradation in the Arctic. We develop a retrieval algorithm to estimate long‐term average ALT using thaw‐season surface subsidence derived from spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements. Our algorithm uses a model of vertical distribution of water content within the active layer accounting for soil texture, organic matter, and moisture. We determine the 1992–2000 average ALT for an 80 × 100 km study area of continuous permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska near Prudhoe Bay. We obtain an ALT of 30–50 cm over moist tundra areas, and a larger ALT of 50–80 cm over wet tundra areas. Our estimated ALT values match in situ measurements at Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites within uncertainties. Our results demonstrate that InSAR can provide ALT estimates over large areas at high spatial resolution. Key Points Thawing of active layer causes surface subsidence Surface subsidence from InSAR can be used to estimate active layer thickness Our active layer thickness estimates closely match ground measurements
Journal Article
Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost
Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.
Permafrost locks away the largest reservoir of mercury on the planet, but climate warming threatens to thaw these systems. Here the authors use models to show that unconstrained fossil fuel burning will dramatically increase the amount of mercury released into future ecosystems.
Journal Article
Inference of the impact of wildfire on permafrost and active layer thickness in a discontinuous permafrost region using the remotely sensed active layer thickness (ReSALT) algorithm
The Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is a region of discontinuous permafrost in the subarctic of southwestern Alaska. Many wildfires have occurred in the YK Delta between 1971-2015, impacting vegetation cover, surface soil moisture, and the active layer. Herein, we demonstrate that the remotely sensed active layer thickness (ReSALT) algorithm can resolve the post-fire active layer dynamics of tundra permafrost. We generated a stack of Advanced Land Observing Satellite Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar interferograms over a study region in the YK Delta spanning 2007-2010. We applied ReSALT to this stack of interferograms to measure seasonal subsidence associated with the freezing and thawing of the active layer and subsidence trends associated with wildfire. We isolated two wildfire-induced subsidence signatures, associated with the active layer and the permafrost layer. We demonstrate that InSAR is sensitive to increases in active layer thickness following wildfire, which recovers to pre-fire values after approximately 25 years. Simultaneously, we show that fire gradually thins the permafrost layer by 4 m, which recovers to pre-fire thickness after 70 years.
Journal Article
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km² for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km² for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.
Journal Article
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
Journal Article
Active layer thickness as a function of soil water content
Active layer thickness (ALT) is a critical metric for monitoring permafrost. How soil moisture influences ALT depends on two competing hypotheses: (a) increased soil moisture increases the latent heat of fusion for thaw, resulting in shallower active layers, and (b) increased soil moisture increases soil thermal conductivity, resulting in deeper active layers. To investigate their relative influence on thaw depth, we analyzed the Field Measurements of Soil Moisture and Active Layer Thickness (SMALT) in Alaska and Canada dataset, consisting of thousands of measurements of thaw depth and soil moisture collected at dozens of sites across Alaska and Canada as part of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). As bulk volumetric water content (VWC) integrated over the entire active layer increases, ALT decreases, supporting the latent heat hypothesis. However, as VWC in the top 12 cm of soil increases, ALT increases, supporting the thermal conductivity hypothesis. Regional temperature variations determine the baseline thaw depth while precipitation may influence the sensitivity of ALT to changes in VWC. Soil latent heat dominates over thermal conductivity in determining ALT, and the effect of bulk VWC on ALT appears consistent across sites.
Journal Article
Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements
Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
Nonlinear transitions in permafrost carbon feedback and surface albedo feedback have largely been excluded from climate policy studies. Here the authors modelled the dynamics of the two nonlinear feedbacks and the associated uncertainty, and found an important contribution to warming which leads to additional economic losses from climate change.
Journal Article
Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental scale
Severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere cause a widespread decline of agricultural yield, the reduction of forest carbon uptake, and increased CO2 growth rates in the atmosphere. Plants respond to droughts by partially closing their stomata to limit their evaporative water loss, at the expense of carbon uptake by photosynthesis. This trade-off maximizes their water-use efficiency (WUE), as measured for many individual plants under laboratory conditions and field experiments. Here we analyse the 13C/12C stable isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 to provide new observational evidence of the impact of droughts on the WUE across areas of millions of square kilometres and spanning one decade of recent climate variability. We find strong and spatially coherent increases in WUE along with widespread reductions of net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere during severe droughts that affected Europe, Russia and the United States in 2001–2011. The impact of those droughts on WUE and carbon uptake by vegetation is substantially larger than simulated by the land-surface schemes of six state-of-the-art climate models. This suggests that drought-induced carbon–climate feedbacks may be too small in these models and improvements to their vegetation dynamics using stable isotope observations can help to improve their drought response.
Journal Article