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This research report provides tools for the initialization of near-natural forests adapted to global warming. The key idea is that target forest communities could naturally migrate from countries south of Germany—where the climatic conditions expected in Germany’s future have already existed for centuries. These specific forest communities have the unique ability to recreate their characteristic biocenosis in Germany and develop their typical biodiversity. The target forest types (TFT) thus serve as essential components in establishing forest development targets for ecological forest conversion. The BERN (Bioindication for Ecosystem Regeneration towards Natural conditions) database ( https://github.com/bern-model/BERN ) serves as the basis for the modeling. In total, 1483 plant communities (including 642 natural wood communities) were evaluated from data collections of largely undisturbed sites, preferably those dating before 1980. For this investigation, 691 phytosociological publications have been evaluated up to now, containing a total of 150,643 relevés with corresponding descriptions of the ecoclimatic and edaphic site factors from Central and Southern Europe. The oldest representative published synoptic table serves as a reference for a community. Each community is characterized by ranges for fuzzy limits of pH value, base saturation, carbon to nitrogen ratio, volumetric soil water content, continentality index, climatic water balance, growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation from reference measured data. For the regionalization of global warming-adapted TFTs, a climatic classification for Germany is proposed, taking projected global warming into account. The parameters growing season length (period of days with > 10 °C) and climatic water balance in the growing season are sufficient to establish a significant correlation to the occurrence of forest community groups (compiled according to main tree species). The evaluation of the measurement data (time series 1991–2020) and a simulation run of the RCP8.5 scenario (time series 2051–2080) resulted in a range of the Growing season length from 55 to 246 d a −1 and a range of the climatic water balance in the growing season from − 47 to + 291 mm/month. The resulting 38,200 edaphic/climatic combination types (= ”habitat types”) were assigned a total of 147 different TFTs. If multiple communities were possible at a single site type, an alternative assessment was conducted using 10 additional site factors. The mapping of the TFT for Germany was conducted using the 1:200,000 soil map, intersected with the climate class map. A factsheet with the reference site parameters and the vegetation structure was created for each TFT (Supplement 1).The results may help to support forestry decision-makers in forest conversion with regard to selection and structuring of tree species. The map, the factsheets and the ecograms form an essential basis for determining suitable climate- and site-adapted tree species proposals for entire Germany.

BackgroundThe state of ecosystems influences their services for humans. Therefore, the European Union aims to assess and map ecosystem conditions and ecosystem services at the level of the Union and the Member States to implement maintenance or protection measures, if necessary.This paper examines the relationship between forest ecosystem conditions and ecosystem services at the national level, using Germany as an example. The aim is to create a methodology that allows users to understand and predict how the potential supply of selected ecosystem services might change over time under the influence of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and that is reproducible, unlike previous approaches. To this end, the methodology was operationalised in a quantitative and rule-based manner.Methods and resultsThe multitude of forest ecosystem types were grouped into 78 classes according to the degree of similarity of their ecological characteristics that influence the provision of ecosystem services. Thereby, ecoclimatic, soil hydrological and nutrient balance characteristics and 12 potential ecosystem service capacities were taken into account. Three potential ecosystem services were quantified for representatives of the ecosystem type classes. The ecosystem service classification was mapped for all of Germany.ConclusionsThe methodology presented enables a transparent and thus a reproducible classification of current and future ecosystem services

Under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) of the UN Economic Commission for Europe, UNECE, to which Germany acceded in 1982, the harmful effects of air pollutants on the environment are to be steadily reduced and ultimately limited to a level that is compatible with nature. The ICP Modelling & Mapping (ICP M&M) under the Working Group on Effects (WGE) of CLRTAP maps critical loads for the entire Convention area and calculates the exceedance risks and associated risks to vegetation and biodiversity. A current data request was made in November 2015 with the aim of submitting new or updated ecosystem-specific critical loads for protection against acidification and eutrophication. For this task, critical loads were determined by the authors for one third of the territory of Germany using the simple mass balance (SMB) method according to the ICP Mapping Manual. The permissible eutrophying nitrogen input into the ecosystem CLnut(N), as well as the acidifying sulphur input CLmaxS, can be described as the setting of the equilibrium between substance inputs and outputs, provided that specific critical limits are met. The BERN database—created by the authors—serves as the basis for modelling vegetation-specific critical limits as a complement to the SMB model. The BERN database contains near-natural plant communities with clearly definable site constancy. The 25,600 German and a further 24,600 European vegetation records dating back to before 1960 were evaluated to determine the good ecological status of the plant communities. The results of the critical load calculation show that about half of the receptor areas have critical loads for eutrophying nitrogen below 10 kg ha−1 a−1 and critical loads for acidifying sulphur were below 1500 eq ha−1 a−1. It could be demonstrated that the BERN–SMB-modelled critical loads for eutrophying nitrogen inputs show lower values on average throughout Germany than those calculated using only the previous critical limits according to the ICP Mapping Manual. These values are closer to the empirical critical loads than the critical loads without BERN data. For the goal of the German National Biodiversity Strategy by 2007 and 2020 to define ecosystem-related impact thresholds for pollutants that describe the effects on biodiversity, the BERN/SMB critical loads for the protection of ecosystems provide a precautionary scientific basis.

BackgroundThe critical values for heavy metal fluxes for protecting the human health and ecosystem’s integrity in Germany, especially the Federal Immission Control Act (BImSchG in Gesetz zum Schutz vor schädlichen Umwelteinwirkungen durch Luftverunreinigungen, Geräusche, Erschütterungen und ähnliche Vorgänge (Bundes-Immissionsschutzgesetz-BImSchG), 1974/2020) with its implementing ordinances (especially the 39th BImSchV in Neununddreißigste Verordnung zur Durchführung des Bundes-Immissionsschutzgesetzes Verordnung über Luftqualitätsstandards und Emissionshöchstmengen vom 2. August 2010, zuletzt geändert durch Art. 2 V v. 18.7.2018 I 1222, 2010, 2018), the Federal Soil Protection Ordinance (BBodSchV in Bundes-Bodenschutz- und Altlastenverordnung (BBodSchV) (GBBl. I S. 1554 vom 12. Juli 1999, zuletzt durch Artikel 3 Absatz 4 der Verordnung vom 27. September 2017 (BGBl. I S. 3465) ge-ändert, 1999/2015) and the Technical Instructions on Air Quality Control (Luft in Erste Allgemeine Verwaltungsvorschrift zum Bundes–Immissionsschutzgesetz (Technische Anleitung zur Reinhaltung der Luft – TA Luft), 2002), were analysed, assessed with regard to the possibilities and applicability of the risk assessment, and were prepared for evaluation in comparison to the respective atmospheric deposition modelled with the chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS. For a comparison of the critical values, the critical loads for cadmium, lead and mercury inputs were updated for Germany on a scale of 1:1 Mio, and critical loads for additional heavy metals (arsenic, copper, zinc, chromium and nickel) were computed, respectively. Due to the methodological differences of their derivation, the critical values of the individual regulations are only conditionally comparable to one another and to the critical loads. Sometimes major differences exist due to different levels of protection, various protective goods and the effect relationship. Only with the critical load calculations, inputs and outputs can be balanced.ResultsFor two unregulated metals (thallium and vanadium) a preliminary rough estimate of the risk of inputs in the receptors was provided as a calculated balance for in- and acceptable outputs. The uncertainty analysis shows, that the highest deviations occurred in the metal contents in plants used to calculate the output through the harvesting of the biomass. The critical load calculation has the highest sensitivity to changes in the pH value. The critical loads for heavy metal fluxes for protecting the human health (CL(M)drink) and ecosystem’s integrity CL(M)eco) for arsenic, nickel, zinc and chromium were not exceeded in Germany for 2009–2011. CL(M)drink and CL(M)eco are exceeded by Hg and Pb inputs, especially in the low rainfall regions of Germany (Brandenburg, lowlands of Saxony-Anhalt, Leipzig Bay, Ruhr valley) with wood vegetation; in addition CL(Cu)eco is exceeded by copper deposition 2010 in the area surrounding Berlin and in the Ruhr valley. The critical loads for cadmium for the protection of drinking water CL(Cd)drink and for the protection of human food from wheat products CL(Cd)food are not exceeded in the German data set due to atmospheric deposition in 2010, but in the worst-case scenario the maximum atmospheric deposition in 2010 could exceeded the lowest CL(Cd)drink and CL(Cd)food.ConclusionsThat assessment of risks was based on deposition from the atmosphere, which represents only a fraction of the inputs compared to the inputs from the use of fertilisers and other sources. This study suggests the conclusive recommendation to methodically deepen and broaden the assessment and evaluation of atmospheric deposition. This is especially true for the spatial validation and specification of exposure for ecosystem types.

The primary task of the BERN database is to document reference data on typical site parameters for the occurrence of plant communities in which their diagnostic species are in competitive equilibrium with each other and in homeostatic equilibrium with the site factors. Common approaches for the creation of a site-plant database such as ordination or bioindication based on individual species like PROPS or MultiMOVE model are of limited use because it is not possible to determine the potential occurrence of a plant species on the basis of site factors, since the competitive influences cannot be determined in advance according to current knowledge. Therefore, the BERN database takes into account the structure of plant communities with the abundance and dominance of species in the competitive equilibrium of plant communities as a reference for determining anthropogenically induced changes. Qualitative knowledge on the relationship between site types and vegetation communities is widely available, as can be seen from the extensive phytosociological publications. For this purpose, synoptic tables and their location descriptions of around 50,000 relevés were evaluated. The BERN database includes currently 887 central European plant communities and links to their diagnostically defining species composition. The database defines the niche of 2210 central European plant species for the soil properties pH, base saturation, carbon to nitrogen ratio, and wetness index and the climatic properties continentality, length of vegetation period, solar radiation and climatic water balance. The BERN model recombines the realised species niches that mainly form the competitively homeostatic structure of a plant community in order to determine the fundamental multifactorial niche of this community. The BERN database contains mainly historical recordings of more or less undisturbed sites. The BERN model (Bioindication for Ecosystem Regeneration towards Natural conditions) as an application module of the BERN database was developed to integrate ecological cause-effect relationships into studies on environmental status assessment and forecasting. The BERN database now has been published for the first time. The methodology of creating the BERN database and the BERN model are documented and applications are demonstrated with examples. The freely available database should invite you to supplement and modify it.

The protection against eco- and human-toxicological impairments caused by atmospheric deposition of heavy metals requires legally defined assessment values. Since such values are missing for Luxembourg, the aim of this investigation was to evaluate different approaches to derive assessment values for the regulation of heavy metals that are in accordance with scientific and legal standards. To this end, assessment values for heavy metals were derived from the compilation of respective values implemented in European countries. In addition, (1) precipitation-related assessment values for the protection of soil for Cr, Zn, and Cu and (2) precautionary assessment values (critical loads for Cr, Zn, and Cu, as well as As, Cd, Ni, and Pb) for the protection of human health and ecosystems were calculated. The calculation of the regionally differentiated precipitation-related assessment values resulted in ranges of 17–272 g Cu ha−1 a−1, 167–2672 g Zn ha−1 a−1 and 17–272 g Crtotal ha−1 a−1. The critical loads for drinking water protection vary in the ranges from 1.23 to 2.14 g Cd ha−1 a−1, from 4.05 to 8.63 g Pb ha−1 a−1, from 2.6 to 5.9 g As ha−1 a−1, from 258 to 564 g Cu ha−1 a−1, from 1292 to 2944 g Zn ha−1 a−1, and from 12.9 to 29.9 g Crtotal ha−1 a−1. Ecosystems are significantly more sensitive to Pb, Cu, and Zn inputs than humans. For As and Cr, humans react much more sensitively than ecosystems. For Cd, the critical loads for drinking water, ecosystems, and wheat products are about the same.

BackgroundThe EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 foresees that Member States assess conditions and potential developments of ecosystems under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. This combination of environmental impacts has never been modelled for the German territory before. Therefore, the aim of the presented dynamic modelling of soil parameters under the influence of changing atmospheric nitrogen deposition with simultaneous climate change at representative sites in Germany was to derive knowledge about the expected development of ecosystem conditions up to a possible change of the respective site-specific current ecosystem type. The dynamic modelling was performed with the Very Simple Dynamic soil model. The selection of 15 modelling sites regarded the availability of data from environmental monitoring programmes routinely operated by public institutions and the aptitude of data for parametrising the soil model. The most important input data are time series of nitrogen and acid deposition as well as time series of the relevant climatic-ecological parameters. The simulation period covered the years 1920–2070.ResultsThere are no continuous linear correlations between the level of acidifying or eutrophying inputs and the course of soil parameter values. The step-like courses result from the resilience of the ecosystems within certain parameter ranges. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition has led to nitrogen saturation at 14 of 15 sites selected for modelling. Currently, no linear (negative) correlation between nitrogen deposition and carbon/nitrogen ratio could be established at these sites any more. An increase in the N-content in the soil was only slight, if at all. On the other hand, the nitrate concentration in the leachate increases in correlation to the N deposition. A clear (negative) correlation was found for the dependence of the C/N ratio on the temperature development in connection with climate change. The predicted air temperature rise until 2070 will also cause a decrease of the carbon content in the future, caused by the increasing activity of decomposing soil organisms. Thus, the drastic decrease of the C/N ratio at all of the study sites is due to the significant decrease in the C content. The validation shows that the dynamic modelling of abiotic site parameters has delivered plausible results at the investigated sites. The applicability of the results could be demonstrated. Thus, the evaluation of the time series of soil and climate parameters resulted in forest ecosystem types that are capable of self-regeneration in the future under the conditions of air pollutant inputs and climate change.ConclusionsThe dynamic modelling of soil parameters under the influence of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and of climate change enables to transparently rank the potential development of ecosystem conditions up to a possible extinction of the current ecosystem type. Thus, the soil modelling approach presented contributes to the implementation of the European Biodiversity Strategy.

Deposition of N and heavy metals can impact ecological and human health. This state-of-the-art review addresses spatial and temporal trends of atmospheric deposition as monitored by element accumulation in moss and compares heavy metals Critical Loads for protecting human health and ecosystem’s integrity with modelled deposition. The element accumulation due to deposition was measured at up to 1026 sites collected across Germany 1990–2015. The deposition data were derived from chemical transport modelling and evaluated with regard to Critical Loads published in relevant legal regulations. The moss data indicate declining nitrogen and HM deposition. Ecosystem and human health Critical Loads for As, Ni, Zn, and Cr were not exceeded in Germany 2009–2011. Respective Critical Loads were exceeded by Hg and Pb inputs, especially in the low rainfall regions with forest coverage. The Critical Load for Cu was exceeded by atmospheric deposition in 2010 in two regions. Human health Critical Loads for Cd were not exceeded by atmospheric deposition in 2010. However, the maximum deposition in 2010 exceeded the lowest human health Critical Load. This impact assessment was based only on deposition but not on inputs from other sources such as fertilizers. Therefore, the assessment should be expanded with regard to other HM sources and specified for different ecosystem types.

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.