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We provide causal evidence of an ex ante moral hazard effect of unemployment insurance (UI) by matching plausibly exogenous changes in UI benefit duration across state-weeks during the Great Recession to high-frequency productivity measures from individual supermarket cashiers. Estimating models with date and cashier-register fixed effects, we identify a modest but statistically significant negative relationship between UI benefits and worker productivity. This effect is strongest for more experienced and less productive cashiers, for whom UI expansions are especially relevant. Additional analyses from the American Time Use Survey reveal a similar increase in shirking during periods with increased UI benefit durations.

Peter B Bach and colleagues call for an end to contradictory regulatory standards in the US that allow drug manufacturers to boost profits by producing single dose vials containing quantities that increase leftover drug

To better measure the full extent of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on workers and the labor market, this paper estimates three measures of the cumulative impact of the pandemic on workers across intensive and extensive margins using longitudinal administrative unemployment insurance (UI) data from California. During the first year of the crisis, 30 percent of the labor force filed a UI claim, over 50 percent of recipients spent more than 6 months on the program, and the mean work time lost was 13 weeks. Less advantaged workers and counties saw much higher rates of claiming and long-term unemployment.

This dissertation contributes to literatures on the design and effects of two important public policies: Unemployment insurance and the minimum legal drinking age. I provide two unique perspectives on the design of unemployment insurance programs. First, by studying an oft-ignored policy parameter which influences benefit generosity, and second by analyzing an understudied margin along which these programs affect work incentives. I extend the literature on the minimum legal drinking age by empirically testing the hypothesis that increases in alcohol consumption at the drinking age have causal spillover effects on the alcohol consumption of younger peers. In chapter 1, I analyze a previously unexamined policy parameter used in unemployment insurance (and other social insurance) programs. Since unemployment insurance replaces a percentage of prior earnings while a claimant is out of work, policymakers must define a base period from which prior earnings are measured. A base period structure common in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program in the United States has two important implications. First, for claimants with volatile enough earnings, this base period structure creates ``benefit risk''---a job loss at the wrong time implies lower benefit amounts. Second, since base periods are determined by the claim filing date, claimants can partially avoid the negative effects of this risk by strategically timing their claims. Using several new sources of administrative data from California’s UI program, I provide four key results on this topic. First, I demonstrate that exposure to benefit risk is widespread. Of roughly 22 million claimants in my sample, over 8 million are exposed to some level of benefit risk. Second, using a bunching approach I demonstrate that roughly 3% of affected claimants strategically delay their claims after a job loss in order to receive higher benefits. Third, I provide evidence that information frictions are a key barrier preventing more widespread use of this strategic response. Finally, I use a dynamic model of job search and Unemployment Insurance to show that the private welfare costs of benefit risk are large. After accounting for claim-timing responses, the average claimant would trade 4% of their expected Unemployment Insurance benefits to eliminate exposure to benefit risk. This number rises substantially among young and especially low-income claimants. In chapter 2, which is joint work with Lester Lusher and Rebecca L.C. Taylor, we provide causal evidence of an ex ante moral hazard effect of UI by matching plausibly exogenous changes in UI benefit duration across state-weeks during the Great Recession to high-frequency productivity measures from individual supermarket cashiers. Estimating models with day and cashier-register fixed effects, we identify a modest but statistically significant negative relationship between UI benefits and worker productivity. This effect is strongest for more experienced and less productive cashiers, for whom UI expansions are especially relevant. Additional analyses from the American Time Use Survey reveal a similar increase in shirking during periods with increased UI benefit durations. Chapter 3, written with Eunju Lee, uses data on sibling pairs near the minimum legal drinking age to provide causal estimates of peer effects in alcohol consumption. Following prior work on other outcomes, we exploit the discontinuous increase in alcohol consumption of the older sibling at the legal drinking age in a regression discontinuity design. Our preferred point estimates imply that the number of binge drinking days reported by the younger sibling decreases by 27% of the mean at the cutoff. While our estimates are somewhat imprecise, we are able to consistently rule out leading positive estimates of peer effects in alcohol consumption. Our research design provides estimates which are interpretable as the causal effect of the peer's alcohol consumption. This is in contrast to most prior work which instead identifies the causal effect of exposure to the peer. We explain how this distinction matters for policy.

To boost college graduation rates, policymakers often advocate for academic supports such as coaching or mentoring. Proactive and intensive coaching interventions are effective, but are costly and difficult to scale. We evaluate a relatively lower-cost group coaching program targeted at first-year college students placed on academic probation. Participants attend a workshop where coaches aim to normalize failure and improve self-confidence. Coaches also facilitate a process whereby participants reflect on their academic difficulties, devise solutions to address their challenges, and create an action plan. Participants then hold a one-time follow-up meeting with their coach or visit a campus resource. Using a difference-in-discontinuity design, we show that the program raises students’ first-year GPA by 14.6% of a standard deviation, and decreases the probability of first-year dropout by 8.5 percentage points. Effects are concentrated among lower-income students who also experience a significant increase in the probability of graduating. Finally, using administrative data we provide the first evidence that coaching/mentoring may have substantial long-run effects as we document significant gains in lower-income students’ earnings 7–9 years following entry to the university. Our findings indicate that targeted, group coaching can be an effective way to improve marginal students’ academic and early career outcomes.

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) are a type of pancreatic cancer with limited therapeutic options. Consequently, most patients with advanced disease die from tumor progression. Current evidence indicates that a subset of cancer cells is responsible for tumor development, metastasis, and recurrence, and targeting these tumor-initiating cells is necessary to eradicate tumors. However, tumorinitiating cells and the biological processes that promote pathogenesis remain largely uncharacterized in PanNETs. Here we profile primary and metastatic tumors from an index patient and demonstrate that MET proto-oncogene activation is important for tumor growth in PanNET xenograft models. We identify a highly tumorigenic cell population within several independent surgically acquired PanNETs characterized by increased cell-surface protein CD90 expression and aldehyde dehydrogenase A1 (ALDHA1) activity, and provide in vitro and in vivo evidence for their stem-like properties. We performed proteomic profiling of 332 antigens in two cell lines and four primary tumors, and showed that CD47, a cell-surface protein that acts as a “don’t eat me” signal co-opted by cancers to evade innate immune surveillance, is ubiquitously expressed. Moreover, CD47 coexpresses with MET and is enriched in CD90hi cells. Furthermore, blocking CD47 signaling promotes engulfment of tumor cells by macrophages in vitro and inhibits xenograft tumor growth, prevents metastases, and prolongs survival in vivo.

We provide causal evidence of an ex ante moral hazard effect of Unemployment Insurance (UI) by matching plausibly exogenous changes in UI benefit duration across state-weeks during the Great Recession to high-frequency productivity measures from individual supermarket cashiers. Estimating models with day and cashier-register fixed effects, we identify a modest but statistically significant negative relationship between UI benefits and worker productivity. This effect is strongest for more experienced and less productive cashiers, for whom UI expansions are especially relevant. Additional analyses from the American Time Use Survey reveal a similar increase in shirking during periods with increased UI benefit durations.