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Diagnosing autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is a complicated, time-consuming process which is particularly challenging in older individuals. One of the most widely used behavioral diagnostic tools is the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). Previous work using machine learning techniques suggested that ASD detection in children can be achieved with substantially fewer items than the original ADOS. Here, we expand on this work with a specific focus on adolescents and adults as assessed with the ADOS Module 4. We used a machine learning algorithm (support vector machine) to examine whether ASD detection can be improved by identifying a subset of behavioral features from the ADOS Module 4 in a routine clinical sample of N = 673 high-functioning adolescents and adults with ASD (n = 385) and individuals with suspected ASD but other best-estimate or no psychiatric diagnoses (n = 288). We identified reduced subsets of 5 behavioral features for the whole sample as well as age subgroups (adolescents vs. adults) that showed good specificity and sensitivity and reached performance close to that of the existing ADOS algorithm and the full ADOS, with no significant differences in overall performance. These results may help to improve the complicated diagnostic process of ASD by encouraging future efforts to develop novel diagnostic instruments for ASD detection based on the identified constructs as well as aiding clinicians in the difficult question of differential diagnosis.

Annually, approximately 30 million patients are discharged from the emergency department (ED) after a traumatic event 1 . These patients are at substantial psychiatric risk, with approximately 10–20% developing one or more disorders, including anxiety, depression or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) 2 – 4 . At present, no accurate method exists to predict the development of PTSD symptoms upon ED admission after trauma 5 . Accurate risk identification at the point of treatment by ED services is necessary to inform the targeted deployment of existing treatment 6 – 9 to mitigate subsequent psychopathology in high-risk populations 10 , 11 . This work reports the development and validation of an algorithm for prediction of post-traumatic stress course over 12 months using two independently collected prospective cohorts of trauma survivors from two level 1 emergency trauma centers, which uses routinely collectible data from electronic medical records, along with brief clinical assessments of the patient’s immediate stress reaction. Results demonstrate externally validated accuracy to discriminate PTSD risk with high precision. While the predictive algorithm yields useful reproducible results on two independent prospective cohorts of ED patients, future research should extend the generalizability to the broad, clinically heterogeneous ED population under conditions of routine medical care. A machine-learning algorithm using electronic medical records and self-reported measures of stress at admission to the emergency department due to trauma can predict the risk and long-term trajectories of post-traumatic stress disorder in two independent cohorts.

Active-duty Army personnel can be exposed to traumatic warzone events and are at increased risk for developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) compared with the general population. PTSD is associated with high individual and societal costs, but identification of predictive markers to determine deployment readiness and risk mitigation strategies is not well understood. This prospective longitudinal naturalistic cohort study—the Fort Campbell Cohort study—examined the value of using a large multidimensional dataset collected from soldiers prior to deployment to Afghanistan for predicting post-deployment PTSD status. The dataset consisted of polygenic, epigenetic, metabolomic, endocrine, inflammatory and routine clinical lab markers, computerized neurocognitive testing, and symptom self-reports. The analysis was computed on active-duty Army personnel (N = 473) of the 101st Airborne at Fort Campbell, Kentucky. Machine-learning models predicted provisional PTSD diagnosis 90–180 days post deployment (random forest: AUC = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67–0.89, sensitivity = 0.78, specificity = 0.71; SVM: AUC = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78–0.98, sensitivity = 0.89, specificity = 0.79) and longitudinal PTSD symptom trajectories identified with latent growth mixture modeling (random forest: AUC = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.75–0.96, sensitivity = 0.88, specificity = 0.69; SVM: AUC = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.79–0.96, sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.85). Among the highest-ranked predictive features were pre-deployment sleep quality, anxiety, depression, sustained attention, and cognitive flexibility. Blood-based biomarkers including metabolites, epigenomic, immune, inflammatory, and liver function markers complemented the most important predictors. The clinical prediction of post-deployment symptom trajectories and provisional PTSD diagnosis based on pre-deployment data achieved high discriminatory power. The predictive models may be used to determine deployment readiness and to determine novel pre-deployment interventions to mitigate the risk for deployment-related PTSD.

A considerable number of depressed patients do not respond to treatment. Accurate prediction of non-response to routine clinical care may help in treatment planning and improve results. A longitudinal sample of N = 239 depressed patients was assessed at admission to multi-modal day clinic treatment, after six weeks, and at discharge. First, patient’s treatment response was modelled by identifying longitudinal trajectories using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS-17). Then, individual items of the HDRS-17 at admission as well as individual patient characteristics were entered as predictors of response/non-response trajectories into the binary classification model (eXtremeGradient Boosting; XGBoost). The model was evaluated on a hold-out set and explained in human-interpretable form by SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values. The prediction model yielded a multi-class AUC = 0.80 in the hold-out set. The predictive power for the binary classification yielded an AUC = 0.83 (sensitivity = .80, specificity = .77). Most relevant predictors for non-response were insomnia symptoms, younger age, anxiety symptoms, depressed mood, being unemployed, suicidal ideation and somatic symptoms of depressive disorder. Non-responders to routine treatment for depression can be identified and screened for potential next-generation treatments. Such predictors may help personalize treatment and improve treatment response.

Intrusive memories are a hallmark symptom of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and oxytocin has been implicated in the formation of intrusive memories. This study investigates how oxytocin influences the acquisition and consolidation of trauma-associated memories and whether these effects are influenced by individual neurobiological and genetic differences. In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 220 healthy women received either a single dose of intranasal 24IU oxytocin or a placebo before exposure to a trauma film paradigm that solicits intrusive memories. We used a “general random forest” machine learning approach to examine whether differences in the noradrenergic and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity, polygenic risk for psychiatric disorders, and genetic polymorphism of the oxytocin receptor influence the effect of oxytocin on the acquisition and consolidation of intrusive memories. Oxytocin induced significantly more intrusive memories than placebo did (t(188.33) = 2.12, p = 0.035, Cohen’s d = 0.30, 95% CI 0.16–0.44). As hypothesized, we found that the effect of oxytocin on intrusive memories was influenced by biological covariates, such as salivary cortisol, heart rate variability, and PTSD polygenic risk scores. The five factors that were most relevant to the oxytocin effect on intrusive memories were included in a Poisson regression, which showed that, besides oxytocin administration, higher polygenic loadings for PTSD and major depressive disorder were directly associated with a higher number of reported intrusions after exposure to the trauma film stressor. These results suggest that intranasal oxytocin amplifies the acquisition and consolidation of intrusive memories and that this effect is modulated by neurobiological and genetic factors. Trial registration: NCT03031405.

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a protracted and debilitating consequence of traumatic events. Identifying early predictors of PTSD can inform the disorder’s risk stratification and prevention. We used advanced computational models to evaluate the contribution of early neurocognitive performance measures to the accuracy of predicting chronic PTSD from demographics and early clinical features. We consecutively enrolled adult trauma survivors seen in a general hospital emergency department (ED) to a 14-month long prospective panel study. Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm evaluated the incremental contribution to 14 months PTSD risk of demographic variables, 1-month clinical variables, and concurrent neurocognitive performance. The main outcome variable was PTSD diagnosis, 14 months after ED admission, obtained by trained clinicians using the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS). N = 138 trauma survivors (mean age = 34.25 ± 11.73, range = 18–64; n = 73 [53%] women) were evaluated 1 month after ED admission and followed for 14 months, at which time n = 33 (24%) met PTSD diagnosis. Demographics and clinical variables yielded a discriminatory accuracy of AUC = 0.68 in classifying PTSD diagnostic status. Adding neurocognitive functioning improved the discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 0.88); the largest contribution emanating from poorer cognitive flexibility, processing speed, motor coordination, controlled and sustained attention, emotional bias, and higher response inhibition, and recall memory. Impaired cognitive functioning 1-month after trauma exposure is a significant and independent risk factor for PTSD. Evaluating cognitive performance could improve early screening and prevention.

Background Exposure to a traumatic event leads to posttraumatic stress disorder in 10% to 20% of exposed individuals. Predictors of risk are needed to target early interventions to those who are most vulnerable. The objective of the study was to test whether a noninvasive mobile device that measures a physiological biomarker of autonomic nervous system activation could predict future posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. Methods Skin conductance response was collected during a trauma interview in the emergency department within hours of exposure to trauma in 95 individuals. Trajectories of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms over 12-month posttrauma were identified using latent growth mixture modeling. Results Skin conductance response was significantly correlated with the probability of being in the chronic posttraumatic stress disorder trajectory following trauma exposure in the emergency department (r = 0.489, p < 0.000001). Lasso regression with elastic net was performed with demographic and clinical measures obtained in the emergency department, demonstrating that skin conductance response was the most significant predictor of the chronic posttraumatic stress disorder trajectory (p < 0.00001). Conclusions This study is the first prospective study of posttraumatic stress disorder showing skin conductance response in the immediate aftermath of trauma predicts subsequent development of chronic posttraumatic stress disorder. This finding points to an easily obtained, and neurobiologically informative, biomarker in emergency departments that can be disseminated to predict the development of posttraumatic stress disorder.

Biomarkers that predict symptom trajectories after trauma can facilitate early detection or intervention for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and may also advance our understanding of its biology. Here, we aimed to identify trajectory-based biomarkers using blood transcriptomes collected in the immediate aftermath of trauma exposure. Participants were recruited from an Emergency Department in the immediate aftermath of trauma exposure and assessed for PTSD symptoms at baseline, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Three empirical symptom trajectories (chronic-PTSD, remitting, and resilient) were identified in 377 individuals based on longitudinal symptoms across four data points (1, 3, 6, and 12 months), using latent growth mixture modeling. Blood transcriptomes were examined for association with longitudinal symptom trajectories, followed by expression quantitative trait locus analysis. GRIN3B and AMOTL1 blood mRNA levels were associated with chronic vs. resilient post-trauma symptom trajectories at a transcriptome-wide significant level (N = 153, FDR-corrected p value = 0.0063 and 0.0253, respectively). We identified four genetic variants that regulate mRNA blood expression levels of GRIN3B. Among these, GRIN3B rs10401454 was associated with PTSD in an independent dataset (N = 3521, p = 0.04). Examination of the BrainCloud and GTEx databases revealed that rs10401454 was associated with brain mRNA expression levels of GRIN3B. While further replication and validation studies are needed, our data suggest that GRIN3B, a glutamate ionotropic receptor NMDA type subunit-3B, may be involved in the manifestation of PTSD. In addition, the blood mRNA level of GRIN3B may be a promising early biomarker for the PTSD manifestation and development.

AbstractBackgroundThe COVID‐19 pandemic has resulted in over 6 million deaths worldwide as of March 2022. Adverse psychological effects on patients and the general public linked to the pandemic have been well documented. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of adult emergency department (ED) encounters with diagnoses of anxiety, depression, and suicidal ideation using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD‐10) codes at a tertiary care hospital in New York City from March 15 through July 31, 2020 and compared it with ED encounters during the same time period in the previous 3 years (2017–2019). The relative risk (RR) of these diagnoses was calculated comparing a prepandemic sample to a pandemic sample, accounting for total volume of ED visits. ResultsA total of 2816 patient encounters met the inclusion criteria. The study period in 2020 had 31.5% lower overall ED volume seen during the same time period in the previous 3 years (27,874 vs average 40,716 ED encounters). The risk of presenting with anxiety during the study period in 2020 compared to prior 3 years was 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21–1.63), for depression was 1.47 (95% CI 1.28–1.69), and for suicidal ideation was 1.05 (95% CI 0.90–1.23). There was an increase in admissions for depression during the pandemic period (15.2% increase, 95% CI 4.6%–25.7%). ConclusionThere was a relative increase in patients presenting to the ED with complaints of anxiety and depression during the height of the COVID‐19 pandemic, while absolute numbers remained stable. Our results highlight the importance of acute care‐based mental health resources and interventions to support patients during this pandemic.

Oxytocin administration during a trauma analogue has been shown to increase intrusive memories, which are a core symptom of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, it is unknown whether oxytocin influences the acquisition or the consolidation of the trauma. The current study investigates the effect of the activation of the oxytocin system during the consolidation of an analogue trauma on the formation of intrusive memories over four consecutive days and whether this effect is influenced by individual neurobiological, genetic, or psychological factors. We conducted a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study in 217 healthy women. They received either a single dose of intranasal oxytocin (24 IU) or placebo after exposure to a trauma film paradigm, which reliably induces intrusive memories. We used a general random forest to examine a potential heterogeneous treatment effect of oxytocin on the consolidation of intrusive memories. Furthermore, we used a poisson regression to examine whether salivary alpha amylase activity (sAA) as a marker of noradrenergic activity and cortisol response to the film, polygenic risk score (PRS) for psychiatric disorders, and psychological factors influence the number of intrusive memories. We found no significant effect of oxytocin on the formation of intrusive memories (F(2, 543.16) = 0.75, p = 0.51, ηp2 = 0.00) and identified no heterogeneous treatment effect. We replicated previous associations of the PRS for PTSD, sAA and the cortisol response on intrusive memories. We further found a positive association between high trait anxiety and intrusive memories, and a negative association between the emotion regulation strategy reappraisal and intrusive memories. Data of the present study suggest that the consolidation of intrusive memories in women is modulated by genetic, neurobiological and psychological factors, but is not influenced by oxytocin. Trial registration: NCT03875391.