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The canonical view of the Maritime Continent (MC) diurnal cycle is deep convection occurring over land during the afternoon and evening, tending to propagate offshore overnight. However, there is considerable day-to-day variability in the convection, and the mechanism of the offshore propagation is not well understood. We test the hypothesis that large-scale drivers such as ENSO, the MJO, and equatorial waves, through their modification of the local circulation, can modify the direction or strength of the propagation, or prevent the deep convection from triggering in the first place. Taking a local-to-large scale approach, we use in situ observations, satellite data, and reanalyses for five MC coastal regions, and show that the occurrence of the diurnal convection and its offshore propagation is closely tied to coastal wind regimes that we define using the k-means cluster algorithm. Strong prevailing onshore winds are associated with a suppressed diurnal cycle of precipitation, while prevailing offshore winds are associated with an active diurnal cycle, offshore propagation of convection, and a greater risk of extreme rainfall. ENSO, the MJO, equatorial Rossby waves, and westward mixed Rossby–gravity waves have varying levels of control over which coastal wind regime occurs, and therefore on precipitation, depending on the MC coastline in question. The large-scale drivers associated with dry and wet regimes are summarized for each location as a reference for forecasters.

The Maritime Continent experiences some of the world’s most severe convective rainfall, with an intense diurnal cycle. A key feature is offshore propagation of convection overnight, having peaked over land during the evening. Existing hypotheses suggest this propagation is due to the nocturnal land breeze and environmental wind causing low-level convergence; and/or gravity waves triggering convection as they propagate. We use a convection-permitting configuration of the Met Office Unified Model over Sumatra to test these hypotheses, verifying against observations from the Japanese Years of the Maritime Continent field campaign. In selected case studies there is an organized squall line propagating with the land-breeze density current, possibly reinforced by convective cold pools, at ∼3 m s −1 to around 150–300 km offshore. Propagation at these speeds is also seen in a composite mean diurnal cycle. The density current is verified by observations, with offshore low-level wind and virtual potential temperature showing a rapid decrease consistent with a density current front, accompanied by rainfall. Gravity waves are identified in the model with a typical phase speed of 16 m s −1 . They trigger isolated cells of convection, usually farther offshore and with much weaker precipitation than the squall line. Occasionally, the isolated convection may deepen and the rainfall intensify, if the gravity wave interacts with a substantial preexisting perturbation such as shallow cloud. The localized convection triggered by gravity waves does not generally propagate at the wave’s own speed, but this phenomenon may appear as propagation along a wave trajectory in a composite that averages over many days of the diurnal cycle.

Vertical wind shear is known to play a key role in the organization and intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in West and Central Africa. A decadal increase in vertical wind shear has recently been linked to a decadal increase in intense MCSs over the Sahel. Here, the effects of vertical wind shear on MCSs over West and Central Africa have been investigated using a 10‐year (1998–2007) MCS dataset. Strong vertical shear is associated with long‐lived, moderate speed, moderate size and cold (deep) storms with high rain rates. The observed cloud top heights of storms over the oceans are closer to their level of neutral buoyancies (LNBs) compared to their land counterparts on the same latitudes. We hypothesize that this is due to greater entrainment dilution over land compared to storms over the ocean. Vertical shear allows storm anvils to reach higher altitudes relative to their LNB, this is consistent with the colder top storms over the Sahel (a region with a high vertical shear) compared to the Congo, despite a higher LNB in the Congo. It is not possible to diagnose the exact mechanisms for this impact of vertical shear from the data, but it is consistent with recent work showing that shear reduces entrainment dilution of squall‐line updrafts. We conclude that modelling impacts of vertical shear, which are normally missed in convection parameterizations, are not only important for predictions of high impact weather, but also for modelling the mean distribution of storm heights across Africa. (a) Brightness temperature difference (BTavg – temperature at the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB), oC) and (b) vertical wind shear associated with MCSs (1998–2007;ms−1). The associated 925‐hPa winds (arrows,ms−1) and the wind shear of 8ms−1 (burgundy contours) are overlaid.

The key physical processes responsible for inner-core structural changes and associated fluctuations in the intensification rate for a recent, high-impact western North Pacific tropical cyclone that underwent rapid intensification [Nepartak (2016)] are investigated using a set of convection-permitting ensemble simulations. Fluctuations in the inner-core structure between ringlike and monopole states develop in 60% of simulations. A tangential momentum budget analysis of a single fluctuation reveals that during the ringlike phase, the tangential wind generally intensifies, whereas during the monopole phase, the tangential wind remains mostly constant. In both phases, the mean advection terms spin up the tangential wind in the boundary layer, whereas the eddy advection terms deepen the storm’s cyclonic circulation by spinning up the tangential wind between 1.5 and 4 km. Calculations of the azimuthally averaged, radially integrated vertical mass flux suggest that periods of near-constant tangential wind tendency are accompanied by a weaker eyewall updraft, which is unable to evacuate all the mass converging in the boundary layer. Composite analyses calculated from 18 simulations produce qualitatively similar results to those from the single case, a finding that is also in agreement with some previous observational and modeling studies. Above the boundary layer, the integrated contribution of the eddy term to the tangential wind tendency is over 80% of the contribution from the mean term, irrespective of inner-core structure. Our results strongly indicate that to fully understand the storm’s three-dimensional evolution, the contribution of the eddies must be quantified.

This paper describes the boundary layer wind structure and dynamics of Hurricanes Danielle (1998) and Isabel (2003), based on the analysis of high-resolution global positioning system dropwindsonde data and simulation of the flow by a three-dimensional boundary layer model produced by Kepert and Wang. The observations show that the hurricane boundary layer has a complex three-dimensional structure with large variability over small distances. The analysis emphasizes three aspects: the degree of gradient-wind balance, the radially varying depth of the boundary layer, and the strength of the near-surface wind speed relative to that at a higher level. Each aspect is compared both with results obtained in a simulation of the individual storm by Kepert and Wang’s model and with theoretical predictions. The observations show that the boundary layer depth decreases toward the center of the storm, consistent with theoretical arguments. The strongest azimuthal winds occur near the top of, but still within, the frictional inflow layer. These strong azimuthal winds are marginally supergradient in Hurricane Danielle but strongly so in Hurricane Isabel, where the imbalance amounts to approximately 10 m s−1 near the radius of maximum winds and is statistically significantly nonzero. This layer of supergradient flow is surmounted by a layer of outflow, in which the flow returns to gradient balance. The maximum storm-relative azimuthal wind occurs in the left front of Hurricane Danielle, and the strongest inflow is located in the right front. These asymmetries rotate anticyclonically with height, but there is also a clear wavenumber-2 asymmetry superimposed, which shows less rotation with height and is possibly forced by environmental factors associated with the storm’s impending recurvature. In Hurricane Isabel, the azimuthal wind maximum is located in the left rear and the inflow maximum in the left front, with neither showing much tendency to vary in azimuth with height. The ratio of the near-surface wind speed to that farther aloft increases toward the storm center for both storms. The largest values are located near the radius of maximum wind, and in general higher values are found on the left of the storm’s track than on the right. Simulations of the two storms with the boundary layer model are able to explain several of these factors; they also show some ability to reproduce individual dropsonde wind observed profiles. Important is that the model predicts weakly supergradient flow in Danielle and strongly supergradient flow in Isabel, in excellent agreement with the observational analysis. Based on these simulations, physical arguments, and earlier studies, the authors conclude that the differences between these storms in this respect result from their differing radial profiles of gradient wind and argue that the occurrence of supergradient flow in the upper boundary layer of individual hurricanes should be readily predictable.

Plausible diagnostics for the top of the tropical cyclone boundary layer include (i) the top of the layer of strong frictional inflow and (ii) the top of the “well mixed” layer, that is, the layer over which potential temperature θ is approximately constant. Observations show that these two candidate definitions give markedly different results in practice, with the inflow layer being roughly twice the depth of the layer of nearly constant θ. Here, the authors will present an analysis of the thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer derived from an axisymmetric model. The authors show that the marked dry static stability in the upper part of the inflow layer is due largely to diabatic effects. The radial wind varies strongly with height and, therefore, so does radial advection of θ. This process also stabilizes the boundary layer but to a lesser degree than diabatic effects. The authors also show that this differential radial advection contributes to the observed superadiabatic layer adjacent to the ocean surface, where the vertical gradient of the radial wind is reversed, but that the main cause of this unstable layer is heating from turbulent dissipation. The top of the well-mixed layer is thus distinct from the top of the boundary layer in tropical cyclones. The top of the inflow layer is a better proxy for the top of the boundary layer but is not without limitations. These results may have implications for boundary layer parameterizations that diagnose the boundary layer depth from thermodynamic, or partly thermodynamic, criteria.

Understanding how mesoscale convection interacts with synoptic-scale circulations over West Africa is crucial for improving regional weather forecasts and developing convection parameterizations to address biases in climate models. A 10-yr pan-African convection-permitting simulation and a corresponding parameterized simulation for current-climate conditions are used to calculate the circulation budget around a synoptic region over the diurnal cycle, splitting processes that modulate circulation tendency (vorticity accumulation and vortex tilting) into diurnal mean and anomalous contributions. Dynamical fields are composited around precipitating grid cells during afternoon and overnight convection to understand how the mesoscale convection modulates synoptic-scale processes, and the composites are compared with an observational case. The dominant process modulating circulation tendency was found to be synoptic-scale vorticity accumulation, which is similar in the two simulations. The greatest difference between the simulated budgets was the tilting term. We propose that the tilting term is affected by convective momentum transport associated with precipitating systems crossing the boundary of the region, whereas the stretching term relies on the convergence and divergence induced by storms within the region. The simulation with parameterized convection captures the heating profile similarly to the simulation with explicit convection, but there are marked differences in convective momentum transport. An accurate vertical convergence structure as well as momentum transport must be simulated in parameterizations to correctly represent the impacts of convection on circulation.

The thermodynamic and convective characteristics of the seasonal progression of the monsoon over eastern China are examined, with the aim of understanding why regional heavy rainfall events (RHREs) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) are more frequent and intense during the monsoon progression from mid-June to mid-July than during the retreat from mid-August to mid-September. During the monsoon progression, the southerly monsoon flow at low and mid-levels intensifies and moves northward, while the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northeastward. These changes result in enhanced moisture advection over eastern China. The stronger southerly flow brings warmer and moist air into the YRB, leading to a higher equivalent potential temperature (θE) and favouring convection. Conversely, during the monsoon retreat, the northerly flow becomes stronger and drier, causing lower θE air over the YRB. Additionally, as the Western Pacific subtropical anticyclone retreats, easterly prevailing winds prevail over eastern China, causing reduced specific humidity. The monsoon progression period exhibits higher convective available potential energy but also higher convective inhibition, which is overcome by the presence of the monsoon front providing sufficient dynamical uplift. Understanding the severity of RHREs, particularly over the YRB, is crucial for improving forecasting capabilities and reducing societal vulnerability.

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics, and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement, and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps. Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training, modeling and operational prediction, and communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather forecasting “Testbeds”—the first of their kind in Africa—which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives, and communications pathways into a semioperational forecasting environment.

Africa is the primary source of cyclonic vortices over the tropical Atlantic. Over both land and sea, these vortices are entwined with deep convective activity, with the majority being African Easterly Wave troughs. Their convective interactions have downstream impacts, since the same vortices provide the seed population for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Understanding the dynamics of East Atlantic seed populations, particularly the processes that distinguish vortices which undergo cyclogenesis, is crucial for understanding the formation of Atlantic hurricanes and model representations of their populations. Here we investigate these questions in three one-year, atmosphere-only global km-scale Met Office Unified Model simulations. We use objective tracking algorithms to independently identify seed vortices, easterly waves, TCs, and Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), benchmarking against reanalysis and satellite-derived climatologies. Despite the simulations displaying comparable continental vortex populations, we show that the highest-resolution simulation with explicit convection produces fewer, weaker hurricanes than coarser, parameterised counterparts due to a failure to amplify vortices crossing the West African coastline. We identify a failure to maintain strong top-heavy mass flux profiles experienced by seeds as the primary cause, demonstrating profiles' roles in low-level circulation development through vortex stretching. Using MCS tracks, we show that systematic differences in convective organisation between the simulations can explain the differences in mass flux profiles, and thus vortex evolution. Deficiencies in the explicit simulation stem from underestimation of MCS stratiform components, a bias shared with other explicit convection models; and a latitudinal offset between offshore seed vortex and MCS trains.