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The former Spanish Netherlands experienced a period of social, cultural and economic prosperity in the seventeenth century, with Antwerp as its most important commercial and artistic centre. The era’s vibrant art scene, once pivotal culturally, economically, and diplomatically, now offers invaluable insights for scientific studies on art, trade, and craftsmanship. In a study on 294 panel paintings by or related to two famous Flemish artists, Jacques Jordaens (1593–1678) and Anthony van Dyck (1599–1641), we applied classical art historical techniques, archival research, dendrochronology, and the study of panel maker’s and guild marks on the painting’s reverse to gain insights into the precise time of tree felling, the geographical provenance of the wood, and the panel makers patronised by the painters. The majority of the paintings (~ 80%), which were subjected to a dendrochronological analysis, could be dated and the results accorded well with the concomitant art historical assessment on authorship. Besides an active and well-known Baltic timber trade which provided over 71% of all the planks examined, straight-grained oak trees were also sourced from western Central Europe (20%). Interestingly, planks from the Baltic and the Ardennes region (France/Belgium) were used together in three different paintings, likely cut apart from larger panels. Employing a multidisciplinary approach to a comprehensive painting collection by individual painters provides not only a new tool to determine a painting’s date and authorship but also allows for a better understanding of the contemporary timber trade and associated craftsmanship.

Future changes in tree growth, associated with a warmer and drier climate, are predicted for many species and locations across the European Mediterranean Basin. However, quantification of the intensity and severity of related consequences for forest ecosystem functioning and productivity remains challenging. Species-specific distribution limits that are particularly sensitive to small changes in the ambient climate may provide an ideal test bed to assess the nature of past growth trends and extremes and their responsible controls. Here, we seek to understand how twentieth century climate change affected the growth of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) nearby its south-eastern distribution limit in Albania and Macedonia on the Balkan Peninsula. We sampled 93 living trees from undisturbed mixed forest stands at ~1,450 m a.s.l. and 29 timbers from nearby historical buildings. Application of different tree-ring detrending techniques allowed robust composite chronologies with varying degrees of high- to low-frequency variability to be developed back to 1648 AD. Comparison with local meteorological station measurements and continental grid-box climate indices revealed spatiotemporal instability in growth–climate response patterns. Nevertheless, year-to-year and decadal-long fluctuations in radial beech growth were significantly (P < 0.001) negatively correlated at −0.61 with June–September temperature over the 1951–1995 period. This (inverse) relationship between increased beech growth and decreased summer temperature is somewhat indicative for the importance of plant-available soil moisture, which likely controls ring width formation near the species-specific south-eastern distribution limit. Significant positive correlations between beech growth and drought (scPDSI; r = 0.57) confirm metabolistic drought constraints. However, an unexpected late twentieth century growth increase not only contradicts the previously observed growth dependency to summer soil moisture, but also denies any putative drought-induced forest ecosystem suppression in this part of the Mediterranean Basin.

Assessments of climate change impacts on forests and their vitality are essential for semi-arid environments such as Central Asia, where the mountain regions belong to the globally important biodiversity hotspots. Alterations in species distribution or drought-induced tree mortality might not only result in a loss of biodiversity but also in a loss of other ecosystem services. Here, we evaluate spatial trends and patterns of the growth-climate relationship in a tree-ring network comprising 33 juniper sites from the northern Pamir-Alay and Tien Shan mountain ranges in eastern Uzbekistan and across Kyrgyzstan for the common period 1935-2011. Junipers growing at lower elevations are sensitive to summer drought, which has increased in intensity during the studied period. At higher elevations, juniper growth, previously favored by warm summer temperatures, has in the recent few decades become negatively affected by increasing summer aridity. Moreover, response shifts are observed during all seasons. Rising temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns during the past eight decades can account for the observed increase in drought stress of junipers at all altitudes. The implications of our findings are vital for the application of adequate long-term measures of ecosystem conservation, but also for paleo-climatic approaches and coupled climate-vegetation model simulations for Central Asia.

The implementation of multidisciplinary research approaches is an essential prerequisite to obtain comprehensive insights into the life and works of the old masters and their timeline in the production of the arts. In this study, traditional art history, cultural heritage, and natural science methods were combined to shed light on an Adoration of the Shepherds painting by Jacques Jordaens (1593–1678), which until now had been considered as a copy. From dendrochronological analysis of the wooden support, it was concluded that the planks in the panel painting were made from Baltic oak trees felled after 1608. An independent dating based on the panel maker’s mark, and the guild’s quality control marks suggests a production period of the panel between 1617 and 1627. Furthermore, the size of the panel corresponds to the dimension known as salvator, which was commonly used for religious paintings during the period 1615 to 1621. Finally, the interpretation of the stylistic elements of the painting suggests that it was made by Jordaens between 1616 and 1618. To conclude, from the synthesis of: (i) dendrochronological analysis, (ii) panel makers’ punch mark and Antwerp Guild brand marks, (iii) re-examination of secondary sources, and (iv) stylistic comparisons to other Jordaens paintings, we suggest that the examined Adoration of the Shepherds should be considered as an original by Jordaens and likely painted in the period 1617–1618. The study is a striking example of the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary approach to investigate panel paintings.

Groundwater dynamics are often overlooked within historical climatology because of their complexity and the influence of multiple factors. This study presents a groundwater model for Spain, using an existing tree-ring based summer drought reconstruction to estimate the groundwater depth in Castile and León (northwestern Spain) over the 1056–2020 CE period. Spanish groundwater volume fluctuations are found to be associated with quasi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The reconstructed annual groundwater depth shows significant oscillations around a mean value of 123 m. Changes in groundwater depths include a wet medieval period ( ~ 1056–1200 CE), recurring megadroughts during parts of the Little Ice Age (~1471–1600 CE), and unprecedentedly large variations during recent decades. Aligning with previous studies for the Iberian Peninsula, our new modelling approach highlights the need to enhance groundwater resilience in anticipation of potentially worsening future drought trends across the Mediterranean.

Innovative use of medieval musings about the Moon has revealed that volcanic eruptions coincided with abrupt, global-scale cooling events. The approach is exciting from the perspective of climate scientists and historians alike. Two views on gauging the impact of volcanism from lunar-eclipse records.

Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of -0.41 considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of -0.63 at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes 1 – 3 . Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300–2004 ce ( R 2  = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 ce as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk. Tree-ring records used to reconstruct the variability of the European jet stream from 1300 to 2004 ce show modulation of extreme regional climate events and extensive impacts on agriculture and human well-being.

We compare Holocene tree cover changes in Europe derived from a transient Earth system model simulation (Max Planck Institute Earth System Model – MPI-ESM1.2, including the land surface and dynamic vegetation model JSBACH) with high-spatial-resolution time slice simulations performed in the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) and pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of tree cover based on the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. The dynamic vegetation models and REVEALS agree with respect to the general temporal trends in tree cover for most parts of Europe, with a large tree cover during the mid-Holocene and a substantially smaller tree cover closer to the present time. However, the decrease in tree cover in REVEALS starts much earlier than in the models, indicating much earlier anthropogenic deforestation than the prescribed land use in the models. While LPJ-GUESS generally overestimates tree cover compared to the reconstructions, MPI-ESM indicates lower percentages of tree cover than REVEALS, particularly in central Europe and the British Isles. A comparison of the simulated climate with chironomid-based climate reconstructions reveals that model–data mismatches in tree cover are in most cases not driven by biases in the climate. Instead, sensitivity experiments indicate that the model results strongly depend on the tuning of the models regarding natural disturbance regimes (e.g. fire and wind throw). The frequency and strength of disturbances are – like most of the parameters in the vegetation models – static and calibrated to modern conditions. However, these parameter values may not be valid for past climate and vegetation states totally different from today's. In particular, the mid-Holocene natural forests were probably more stable and less sensitive to disturbances than present-day forests that are heavily altered by human interventions. Our analysis highlights the fact that such model settings are inappropriate for paleo-simulations and complicate model–data comparisons with additional challenges. Moreover, our study suggests that land use is the main driver of forest decline in Europe during the mid-Holocene and late Holocene.

Systematic comparisons of proxy-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of past millennium temperature variability offer insights into climate sensitivity and feedback mechanisms, besides allowing model evaluation independently from the period covered by instrumental data. Such simulation–reconstruction comparisons can help to distinguish more skillful models from less skillful ones, which may subsequently help to develop more reliable future projections. This study evaluates the low-frequency simulation–reconstruction agreement within the past millennium through assessing the amplitude of temperature change between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (here, 950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (here, 1450–1850 CE) in PMIP3 model simulations compared to proxy-based local and continental-scale reconstructions. The simulations consistently show a smaller temperature change than the reconstructions for most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, but not in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as a partly different spatial pattern. A cost function analysis assesses how well the various simulations agree with reconstructions. Disregarding spatial correlation, significant differences are seen in the agreement with the local temperature reconstructions between groups of models, but insignificant differences are noted when compared to continental-scale reconstructions. This result points toward a limited possibility to “rank” models by means of their low-frequency temperature variability alone. The systematically lower amplitude of simulated versus reconstructed temperature change indicates either too-small simulated internal variability or that the analyzed models lack some critical forcing or have missing or too-weak feedback mechanisms. We hypothesize that too-cold initial ocean conditions in the models—in combination with too-weak internal variability and slow feedbacks over longer time scales—could account for much of the simulation–reconstruction disagreement.