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Type 1 Interferons (IFNs) have been associated with positive effects on Coronaviruses. Previous studies point towards the superior potency of IFNβ compared to IFNα against viral infections. We conducted a three-armed, individually-randomized, open-label, controlled trial of IFNβ1a and IFNβ1b, comparing them against each other and a control group. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to IFNβ1a (subcutaneous injections of 12,000 IU on days 1, 3, 6), IFNβ1b (subcutaneous injections of 8,000,000 IU on days 1, 3, 6), or the control group. All three arms orally received Lopinavir/Ritonavir (400 mg/100 mg twice a day for ten days) and a single dose of Hydroxychloroquine 400 mg on the first day. Our utilized primary outcome measure was Time To Clinical Improvement (TTCI) defined as the time from enrollment to discharge or a decline of two steps on the clinical seven-step ordinal scale, whichsoever came first. A total of 60 severely ill patients with positive RT-PCR and Chest CT scans underwent randomization (20 patients to each arm). In the Intention-To-Treat population, IFNβ1a was associated with a significant difference against the control group, in the TTCI; (HR; 2.36, 95% CI 1.10–5.17, P-value = 0.031) while the IFNβ1b indicated no significant difference compared with the control; HR; 1.42, (95% CI 0.63–3.16, P-value = 0.395). The median TTCI for both of the intervention groups was five days vs. seven days for the control group. The mortality was numerically lower in both of the intervention groups (20% in the IFNβ1a group and 30% in the IFNβ1b group vs. 45% in the control group). There were no significant differences between the three arms regarding the adverse events. In patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, as compared with the base therapeutic regiment, the benefit of a significant reduction in TTCI was observed in the IFNβ1a arm. This finding needs further confirmation in larger studies. Trial Registration Number: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04343768. (Submitted: 08/04/2020; First Online: 13/04/2020) (Registration Number: NCT04343768).

According to World Health Organization (WHO), currently, 2.2 billion people are living with visual impairment worldwide, of which almost half could have been prevented. There are both modifiable and unmodifiable factors leading to visual disability and, ultimately, blindness. Several population-based studies in different parts of Iran have tried to determine these factors concerning their specific population and environment-related characteristics. AZAR Eye and Vision cohort is the second-largest cohort study in the whole country. AZAR Eye and Vision cohort is the ophthalmologic branch of AZAR cohort which is the largest eye cohort study in the country, which is trying to determine the prevalence and incidence of visual impairment, blindness, and other major ophthalmologic conditions and their associated risk factors in East Azerbaijan province located in Iran, a middle eastern country. A recently emerging phenomenon is the drying of the ultra-salty lake of Urmia located in the West Azerbaijan province which is a direct neighbor of our studied population and has caused recurrent salt storms in the immediate near areas. This phenomenon could adversely affect visual health via different conditions which our study will elucidate. The enrollment phase took place between 2014 and 2017 and 11,208 participants were enrolled out of 15,000 participants in the primary cohort. The resurvey phase will begin five years after the enrollment phase. In this phase, 30% of the participants are randomly selected to be reexamined and complete questionnaires. The participants showing any issues such as diabetes and being a glaucoma suspect will be included in the resurvey phase, too. Data categories gathered include demographics, lifestyle factors, past medical and drug histories, and a diet quality and quantity questionnaire including 130 edible items. Urine, hair, nail, and 25-ml blood samples, were collected from the participants. Then they were referred to an optometrist to complete an ophthalmologic questionnaire and undergo eye examination and lensometry. Then they underwent slit-lamp examinations and pictures were taken of the lens and fundus. People with suspected visual impairment were referred to an ophthalmology clinic. The data are processed and a four-level quality check is performed on each block. The most common visual impairment is cataracts. This study’s most important aim is to evaluate the effect of local environmental and ethnic factors on eye diseases in this specific population.

Background The incidence and associated risk factors for premature death were investigated in a population-based cohort study in Iran. Methods A total of 7245 participants (3216 men), aged 30–70 years, were included. We conducted Cox proportional hazards models to identify the risk factors for premature death. For each risk factor, hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated. Results After a median follow-up of 13.8 years, 262 premature deaths (153 in men) occurred. Underlying causes of premature deaths were cardiovascular disease (CVD) ( n  = 126), cancer ( n  = 51), road injuries ( n  = 15), sepsis and pneumonia ( n  = 9) and miscellaneous reasons ( n  = 61). The age-standardized incident rate of premature death was 2.35 per 1000 person years based on WHO standard population. Hypertension [HR 1.40, 95% CI (1.07–1.83)], diabetes (2.53, 1.94–3.29) and current smoking (1.58, 1.16–2.17) were significant risk factors for premature mortality; corresponding PAFs were 12.3, 22.4 and 9.2%, respectively. Overweight (body mass index (BMI): 25–29.9 kg/m 2 ) (0.65, 0.49–0.87) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 ) (0.67, 0.48–0.94) were associated with decreased premature mortality. After replacing general adiposity with central adiposity, we found no significant risk for the latter (0.92, 0.71–1.18). Moreover, when we excluded current smokers, those with prevalent cancer/cardiovascular disease and those with survival of less than 3 years, the inverse association between overweight (0.59, 0.39–0.88) and obesity (0.67, 0.43–1.04), generally remained unchanged; although, diabetes still showed a significant risk (2.62, 1.84–3.72). Conclusions Controlling three modifiable risk factors including diabetes, hypertension and smoking might potentially reduce mortality events by over 40%, and among these, prevention of diabetes should be prioritized to decrease burden of events. We didn’t confirm a negative impact of overweight and obesity status on premature mortality events.

ObjectivesHyperinsulinaemia and insulin resistance are proposed as contributors to the incidence of cardiometabolic phenotypes (CMPs) with unhealthy metabolic status. This study analysed the association between dietary insulin load (DIL) and Dietary Insulin Index (DII) with CMPs in the AZAR cohort population.DesignThis study was a cross-sectional analysis of the AZAR Cohort Study, beginning in 2014 and continuing to this date.SettingThe AZAR cohort is a part of an Iranian screening programme named the Persian cohort and involves participants living in the Shabestar region, Iran for at least 9 months.ParticipantsA total of 15 006 participants agreed to partake in the study. We excluded participants with missing data (n=15), daily energy intake lower than 800 kcal (n=7) or higher than 8000 kcal (n=17), and cancer (n=85). Finally, 14 882 individuals remained.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe gathered information included the participants' demographic, dietary, anthropometric and physical activity data.ResultsThe frequency of DIL and DII significantly decreased from the first to fourth quartiles in metabolically unhealthy participants (p≤0.001). The mean values of DIL and DII were greater in metabolically healthy participants than in unhealthy ones (p<0.001). The results of the unadjusted model showed that the risks of unhealthy phenotypes in the fourth DIL quartile decreased by 0.21 (0.14–0.32) and 0.37 (0.33–0.43), respectively, compared with the first quartile. The same model showed the same risks for DII decreased by 0.18 (0.11–0.28) and 0.39 (0.34–0.45), respectively. The results in both genders were the same as all participants combined.ConclusionsDII and DIL were correlated with a decreased OR of unhealthy phenotypes. We suggest the reason may be either a lifestyle change in metabolically unhealthy participants or elevated insulin secretion not being as detrimental as previously thought. Further studies can confirm these speculations.

Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background : The scientific evidence concerning pathogenesis and immunopathology of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly evolving in the literature. To evaluate the different tissues obtained by biopsy and autopsy from five patients who expired from severe COVID-19 in our medical center. Methods : This retrospective study reviewed five patients with severe COVID-19, confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and imaging, to determine the potential correlations between histologic findings with patient outcome. Results : Diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) and micro-thrombosis were the most common histologic finding in the lung tissues (4 of 5 cases), and immunohistochemical (IHC) findings (3 of 4 cases) suggested perivascular aggregation and diffuse infiltration of alveolar walls by CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. Two of five cases had mild predominantly perivascular lymphocytic infiltration, single cell myocardial necrosis and variable interstitial edema in myocardial samples. Hypertrophic cardiac myocytes, representing hypertensive cardiomyopathy was seen in one patient and CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes were detected on IHC in two cases. In renal samples, acute tubular necrosis was observed in 3 of 5 cases, while chronic tubulointerstitial nephritis, crescent formation and small vessel fibrin thrombi were observed in 1 of 5 samples. Sinusoidal dilation, mild to moderate chronic portal inflammation and mild mixed macro- and micro-vesicular steatosis were detected in all liver samples. Conclusion : Our observations suggest that clinical pathology findings on autopsy tissue samples could shed more light on the pathogenesis, and consequently the management, of patients with severe COVID-19.

Background Blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm represents a rare type of hematologic malignancy that often manifests itself through various skin lesions. It commonly affects the elderly male population. Lymph nodes, peripheral blood, and bone marrow involvement are the typical findings that justify its aggressive nature and dismal prognosis. On histopathological assessment, malignant cells share some similarities with blastic cells from the myeloid lineage that make immunohistochemistry staining mandatory for blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm diagnosis. Case presentation A 35-year-old Asian man presented with cervical lymphadenopathy followed by an erythematous lesion on his left upper back. At first, the lesion was misdiagnosed as an infectious disease and made the patient receive two ineffective courses of azithromycin and clarithromycin. Six months later, besides persistent skin manifestations, he felt a cervical mass, which was misdiagnosed as follicular center cell lymphoma. Tumor recurrence following the chemoradiation questioned the diagnosis, and further pathologic assessments confirmed blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm. The second recurrence occurred 3 months after chemotherapy. Eventually, he received a bone marrow transplant after complete remission. However, the patient expired 3 months after transplant owing to the third recurrence and gastrointestinal graft versus host disease complications. Conclusions Early clinical suspicion and true pathologic diagnosis play a crucial role in patients’ prognosis. Moreover, allogenic bone marrow transplant should be performed with more caution in aggressive forms of blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm because of transplant side effects and high risk of cancer recurrence.

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (−39·3 to −33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (−37·2 to −31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (−10·7 to −5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men. Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89–4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61–2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18–5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10–4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8–8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4–8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1–10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184–5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461–524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74–89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38–43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3–0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0–16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6–11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8–23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68–2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6–0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9–136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7–138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Brain and CNS cancers (collectively referred to as CNS cancers) are a source of mortality and morbidity for which diagnosis and treatment require extensive resource allocation and sophisticated diagnostic and therapeutic technology. Previous epidemiological studies are limited to specific geographical regions or time periods, making them difficult to compare on a global scale. In this analysis, we aimed to provide a comparable and comprehensive estimation of the global burden of brain cancer between 1990 and 2016. We report means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates for CNS cancers (according to the International Classification of Diseases tenth revision: malignant neoplasm of meninges, malignant neoplasm of brain, and malignant neoplasm of spinal cord, cranial nerves, and other parts of CNS) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. Data sources include vital registration and cancer registry data. Mortality was modelled using an ensemble model approach. Incidence was estimated by dividing the final mortality estimates by mortality to incidence ratios. DALYs were estimated by summing years of life lost and years lived with disability. Locations were grouped into quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. In 2016, there were 330 000 (95% UI 299 000 to 349 000) incident cases of CNS cancer and 227 000 (205 000 to 241 000) deaths globally, and age-standardised incidence rates of CNS cancer increased globally by 17·3% (95% UI 11·4 to 26·9) between 1990 and 2016 (2016 age-standardised incidence rate 4·63 per 100 000 person-years [4·17 to 4·90]). The highest age-standardised incidence rate was in the highest quintile of SDI (6·91 [5·71 to 7·53]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased with each SDI quintile. East Asia was the region with the most incident cases of CNS cancer for both sexes in 2016 (108 000 [95% UI 98 000 to 122 000]), followed by western Europe (49 000 [37 000 to 54 000]), and south Asia (31 000 [29 000 to 37 000]). The top three countries with the highest number of incident cases were China, the USA, and India. CNS cancer was responsible for 7·7 million (95% UI 6·9 to 8·3) DALYs globally, a non-significant change in age-standardised DALY rate of −10·0% (−16·4 to 2·6) between 1990 and 2016. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased in the high SDI quintile (−10·0% [–27·1 to −0·1]) and high-middle SDI quintile (−10·5% [–18·4 to −1·4]) over time but increased in the low SDI quintile (22·5% [11·2 to 50·5]). CNS cancer is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, and incidence increased between 1990 and 2016. Significant geographical and regional variation in the incidence of CNS cancer might be reflective of differences in diagnoses and reporting practices or unknown environmental and genetic risk factors. Future efforts are needed to analyse CNS cancer burden by subtype. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.