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Acute exposure to air pollution has been linked to myocardial infarction, but its effect on heart failure is uncertain. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between air pollution and acute decompensated heart failure including hospitalisation and heart failure mortality. Five databases were searched for studies investigating the association between daily increases in gaseous (carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone) and particulate (diameter <2·5 μm [PM2·5] or <10 μm [PM10]) air pollutants, and heart failure hospitalisations or heart failure mortality. We used a random-effects model to derive overall risk estimates per pollutant. Of 1146 identified articles, 195 were reviewed in-depth with 35 satisfying inclusion criteria. Heart failure hospitalisation or death was associated with increases in carbon monoxide (3·52% per 1 part per million; 95% CI 2·52–4·54), sulphur dioxide (2·36% per 10 parts per billion; 1·35–3·38), and nitrogen dioxide (1·70% per 10 parts per billion; 1·25–2·16), but not ozone (0·46% per 10 parts per billion; −0·10 to 1·02) concentrations. Increases in particulate matter concentration were associated with heart failure hospitalisation or death (PM2·5 2·12% per 10 μg/m3, 95% CI 1·42–2·82; PM10 1·63% per 10 μg/m3, 95% CI 1·20–2·07). Strongest associations were seen on the day of exposure, with more persistent effects for PM2·5. In the USA, we estimate that a mean reduction in PM2·5 of 3·9 μg/m3 would prevent 7978 heart failure hospitalisations and save a third of a billion US dollars a year. Air pollution has a close temporal association with heart failure hospitalisation and heart failure mortality. Although more studies from developing nations are required, air pollution is a pervasive public health issue with major cardiovascular and health economic consequences, and it should remain a key target for global health policy. British Heart Foundation.

People with comorbidities are underrepresented in clinical trials. Empirical estimates of treatment effect modification by comorbidity are lacking, leading to uncertainty in treatment recommendations. We aimed to produce estimates of treatment effect modification by comorbidity using individual participant data (IPD). We obtained IPD for 120 industry-sponsored phase 3/4 trials across 22 index conditions (n = 128,331). Trials had to be registered between 1990 and 2017 and have recruited ≥300 people. Included trials were multicentre and international. For each index condition, we analysed the outcome most frequently reported in the included trials. We performed a two-stage IPD meta-analysis to estimate modification of treatment effect by comorbidity. First, for each trial, we modelled the interaction between comorbidity and treatment arm adjusted for age and sex. Second, for each treatment within each index condition, we meta-analysed the comorbidity-treatment interaction terms from each trial. We estimated the effect of comorbidity measured in 3 ways: (i) the number of comorbidities (in addition to the index condition); (ii) presence or absence of the 6 commonest comorbid diseases for each index condition; and (iii) using continuous markers of underlying conditions (e.g., estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)). Treatment effects were modelled on the usual scale for the type of outcome (absolute scale for numerical outcomes, relative scale for binary outcomes). Mean age in the trials ranged from 37.1 (allergic rhinitis trials) to 73.0 (dementia trials) and percentage of male participants range from 4.4% (osteoporosis trials) to 100% (benign prostatic hypertrophy trials). The percentage of participants with 3 or more comorbidities ranged from 2.3% (allergic rhinitis trials) to 57% (systemic lupus erythematosus trials). We found no evidence of modification of treatment efficacy by comorbidity, for any of the 3 measures of comorbidity. This was the case for 20 conditions for which the outcome variable was continuous (e.g., change in glycosylated haemoglobin in diabetes) and for 3 conditions in which the outcomes were discrete events (e.g., number of headaches in migraine). Although all were null, estimates of treatment effect modification were more precise in some cases (e.g., sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors for type 2 diabetes-interaction term for comorbidity count 0.004, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.02) while for others credible intervals were wide (e.g., corticosteroids for asthma-interaction term -0.22, 95% CI -1.07 to 0.54). The main limitation is that these trials were not designed or powered to assess variation in treatment effect by comorbidity, and relatively few trial participants had >3 comorbidities. Assessments of treatment effect modification rarely consider comorbidity. Our findings demonstrate that for trials included in this analysis, there was no empirical evidence of treatment effect modification by comorbidity. The standard assumption used in evidence syntheses is that efficacy is constant across subgroups, although this is often criticised. Our findings suggest that for modest levels of comorbidities, this assumption is reasonable. Thus, trial efficacy findings can be combined with data on natural history and competing risks to assess the likely overall benefit of treatments in the context of comorbidity.

ObjectiveFirst-phase ejection fraction (EF1) is a novel measure of early left ventricular systolic dysfunction. We investigated determinants of EF1 and its prognostic value in aortic stenosis.MethodsEF1 was measured retrospectively in participants of an echocardiography/cardiovascular magnetic resonance cohort study which recruited patients with aortic stenosis (peak aortic velocity of ≥2 m/s) between 2012 and 2014. Linear regression models were constructed to examine variables associated with EF1. Cox proportional hazards were used to determine the prognostic power of EF1 for aortic valve replacement (AVR, performed as part of clinical care in accordance with international guidelines) or death.ResultsTotal follow-up of the 149 participants (69.8% male, 70 (65–76) years, mean gradient 33 (21–42) mm Hg) was 238 029 person-days. Sixty-seven participants (45%) had a low baseline EF1 (<25%) despite normal ejection fraction (67% (62%–71%)). Patients with low EF1 had more severe aortic stenosis (mean gradient 39 (34–45) mm Hg vs 24 (16–35) mm Hg, p<0.001) and more myocardial fibrosis (indexed extracellular volume (iECV) (24.2 (19.6–28.7) mL/m2 vs 20.6 (16.8–24.3) mL/m2, p=0.002; late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) prevalence 52% vs 20%, p<0.001). Zva, iECV and infarct LGE were independent predictors of EF1. EF1 improved post-AVR (n=57 with post-AVR EF1 available, baseline 16 (12–24) vs follow-up 27% (22%–31%); p<0.001). Low baseline EF1 was an independent predictor of AVR/death (HR 5.6, 95% CI 3.4 to 9.4), driven by AVR.ConclusionEF1 quantifies early, potentially reversible systolic dysfunction in aortic stenosis, is associated with global afterload and myocardial fibrosis, and is an independent predictor of AVR.

BackgroundCardiac troponin is integral to the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but is elevated in many patients without acute coronary syndrome. We evaluate the impact of a clinical assessment of pre-test probability on the positive predictive value (PPV) of cardiac troponin for a diagnosis of myocardial infarction.MethodsIn 1,054 consecutive patients undergoing blood sampling in the Emergency Department, cardiac troponin I was measured in excess serum using a high-sensitivity assay. Patients were classified as type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction, or myocardial injury, and the prevalence determined in the entire cohort and in those where testing was requested by the attending physician. We determine the predicted PPV for type 1 myocardial infarction across different pre-test probabilities.ResultsCardiac troponin was requested in 136 patients identifying 15 (11.3%) with type 1 myocardial infarction. Testing everyone identified 2 further patients with type 1 (17/1,054 [1.7%]), but 127 (12%) patients with type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury. In patients selected for testing the PPV for type 1 myocardial infarction was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 32.8%-67.2%), falling to 13.6% (95% CI 8.0%-19.7%) when measured across the cohort. The PPV was heavily influenced by the pre-test probability (Figure 1). Irrespective of diagnosis, cardiac troponin was a independent predictor of death (hazard ratio 1.26 per 2-fold increase, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.49) (Figure 2).Abstract 112 Figure 1Abstract 112 Figure 2ConclusionsCardiac troponin concentrations are elevated in one in eight patients in the Emergency Department. If testing is performed without an assessment of pre-test probability, interpretation of cardiac troponin will be challenging and may adversely impact on the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction.

BackgroundLong covid describes a syndrome of persistent symptoms following COVID-19 and is responsible for substantial healthcare and economic burden. Currently, no effective treatments have been established. Ashwagandha (Withania somnifera (L.) Dunal) is a medicinal herb traditionally used in India for its immune-strengthening and anti-inflammatory properties. Withanolides, a family of steroid-derived molecules unique to Ashwagandha, have been shown to modulate inflammatory pathways in animal models, and several small randomised trials in humans support its effectiveness for reducing symptoms that are also associated with long covid. Therefore, this study aims to assess whether Ashwagandha is effective and safe for improving functional status and reducing symptom burden in adults living with long covid.MethodsA randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial will be performed at participating general practice (GP) surgeries and long covid clinics across the UK. Individuals diagnosed with long covid will be screened for eligibility and then randomised 1:1 to take 1000 mg daily of Ashwagandha root extract tablets (standardised to <0.9% withanolides) or matching placebo tablets for 3 months (target, n = 2500). Monthly online surveys will be performed to collect patient-reported outcomes, and monthly safety monitoring, including liver function tests, will be conducted by clinical site teams. The primary outcome of the Post-COVID Functional Status Scale score at 3 months will be assessed by baseline-adjusted ordinal logistic regression, according to a pre-published statistical analysis plan. The secondary outcomes included validated quality of life and long covid symptom scales, work status and productivity and adverse events. The trial has been approved as a Clinical Trial of an Investigational Medicinal Produce by the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Authority and by the NHS Research Ethics Committee and Health Research Authority.DiscussionTreatments for long covid are urgently needed. This trial will robustly evaluate the safety and efficacy of a candidate treatment with a promising efficacy and safety profile. If found to be effective, the findings will likely influence treatment guidelines and improve health outcomes in those living with long covid.Trial registration numberThis trial was pre-registered on 15/08/2022: ISRCTN12368131

IntroductionThe epidemiological and demographic transitions are leading to a rising burden of multimorbidity (co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions) worldwide. Evidence on the burden, determinants, consequences and care of multimorbidity in rural and urbanising India is limited, partly due to a lack of longitudinal and objectively measured data on chronic health conditions. We will conduct a mixed-methods study nested in the prospective Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents’ Study (APCAPS) cohort to develop a data resource for understanding the epidemiology of multimorbidity in rural and urbanising India and developing interventions to improve the prevention and care of multimorbidity.Methods and analysisWe aim to recruit 2100 APCAPS cohort members aged 45+ who have clinical and lifestyle data collected during a previous cohort follow-up (2010–2012). We will screen for locally prevalent non-communicable, infectious and mental health conditions, alongside cognitive impairments, disabilities and frailty, using a combination of self-reported clinical diagnosis, symptom-based questionnaires, physical examinations and biochemical assays. We will conduct in-depth interviews with people with varying multimorbidity clusters, their informal carers and local healthcare providers. Deidentified data will be made available to external researchers.Ethics and disseminationThe study has received approval from the ethics committees of the National Institute of Nutrition and Indian Institute of Public Health Hyderabad, India and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK. Meta-data and data collection instruments will be published on the APCAPS website alongside details of existing APCAPS data and the data access process (www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/centres-projects-groups/apcaps).

In this report from Scotland, vaccination of health care workers for SARS-CoV-2 was associated with a decrease in household transmission.

ObjectivesTo determine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and explore associations with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hscTnI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Kenya.DesignPilot cross-sectional study.SettingData were collected from community HIV clinics across two sites in Nairobi, Kenya, from July 2019 to May 2020.ParticipantsConvenience sample of 200 PLHIV (≥30 years with no prior history of CVD).Outcome measuresPrevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and its association with hsTnI and hsCRP levels.ResultsAcross 200 PLHIV (median age 46 years, IQR 38–53; 61% women), the prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia (total cholesterol >6.1 mmol/L) and hypertension were 19% (n=30/199) and 30% (n=60/200), respectively. Smoking and diabetes prevalence was 3% (n=5/200) and 4% (n=7/200). HscTnI was below the limit of quantification (<2.5 ng/L) in 65% (n=109/169). High (>3 mg/L), intermediate (1–3 mg/L) and low (<1 mg/L) hsCRP levels were found in 38% (n=75/198), 33% (n=65/198) and 29% (n=58/198), respectively. Framingham laboratory-based risk scores classified 83% of PLHIV at low risk with 12% and 5% at intermediate and high risk, respectively. Older age (adjusted OR (aOR) per year increase 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08) and systolic blood pressure (140–159 mm Hg (aOR 2.96; 95% CI 1.09 to 7.90) and >160 mm Hg (aOR 4.68, 95% CI 1.55 to 14) compared with <140 mm Hg) were associated with hscTnI levels. No associations were observed between hsCRP and CVD risk factors.ConclusionThe majority of PLHIV—using traditional risk estimation systems—have a low estimated CVD risk likely reflecting a younger aged population predominantly consisting of women. Hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia were common while smoking and diabetes rates remained low. While hscTnI values were associated with increasing age and raised blood pressure, no associations between hsCRP levels and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were observed.

BackgroundLeft ventricular diastolic function as assessed by tissue Doppler echocardiography predicts cardiovascular event rates at 4 years of follow-up in patients with hypertension. Our aim was to evaluate whether this extends to predicting cardiovascular mortality after 20 years of follow-up.MethodsConventional (E) and tissue Doppler (e′) echocardiography was performed on hypertensive participants in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT) with long-term follow-up ascertained via linkage to the Office of National Statistics. Cardiovascular mortality was defined as death from coronary heart disease, stroke and other cardiovascular aetiology such as heart failure or peripheral vascular disease. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression survival models were constructed to investigate the association between tissue Doppler echocardiography measurements and long-term cardiovascular mortality.ResultsAmong 506 hypertensive patients (median age 64, interquartile range (58, 69), 87% male), there were 200 (40%) deaths over a 20-year follow-up period. 60 deaths (12%) were cardiovascular-related.A reduction in e′ was independently associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, after adjusting for the ACC/AHA Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score, with an inverse HR of 1.22 per 1 cm/s decrease (95% CI 1.04–1.43). A higher E/e′ ratio was independently associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, after adjusting for the ASCVD risk score, with an HR of 1.12 per 1-unit increase (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.23).ConclusionsImpaired left ventricular diastolic function, measured using tissue Doppler echocardiography through e′ and E/e′, independently predicts increased cardiovascular mortality over 20 years in hypertensive patients, highlighting its long-term prognostic significance.

Few data compare cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in a general population. We sought to evaluate the distribution and association between cTnT, cTnI, and cardiovascular risk factors in a large general population cohort. High-sensitivity cTnT and cTnI were measured in serum from 19501 individuals in the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study. Associations with cardiovascular risk factors were compared using age- and sex-adjusted regression. Observed age- and sex-stratified 99th centiles were compared with 99th centiles for cTnT (men, 15.5 ng/L; women, 9.0 ng/L) and cTnI (men, 34.2 ng/L; women, 15.6 ng/L) used in clinical practice. cTnT and cTnI concentrations were detectable in 53.3% and 74.8% of participants, respectively, and were modestly correlated in unadjusted analyses ( = 21.3%) and only weakly correlated after adjusting for age and sex ( = 9.5%). Cardiovascular risk factors were associated with both troponins, but in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, cTnI was more strongly associated with age, male sex, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure ( < 0.0001 for all vs cTnT). cTnT was more strongly associated with diabetes ( < 0.0001 vs cTnI). The observed 99th centiles were broadly consistent with recommended 99th centiles in younger men and women. After the age of 60 years, observed 99th centiles increased substantially for cTnT, and beyond 70 years of age, the 99th centiles approximately doubled for both troponins. In the general population, cTnT and cTnI concentrations are weakly correlated and are differentially associated with cardiovascular risk factors. The 99th centiles currently in use are broadly appropriate for men and women up to but not beyond the age of 60 years.