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Background: The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk tables and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) scoring model are the two best-established predictive tools to help decision making for patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). The aim of the current study was to assess the performance of these predictive tools in a large multicentre cohort of NMIBC patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 4689 patients with NMIBC. To evaluate the discrimination of the models, we created Cox proportional hazard regression models for time to disease recurrence and progression. We incorporated the patients calculated risk score as a predictor into both of these models and then calculated their discrimination (concordance indexes). We compared the concordance index of our models with the concordance index reported for the models. Results: With a median follow-up of 57 months, 2110 patients experienced disease recurrence and 591 patients experienced disease progression. Both tools exhibited a poor discrimination for disease recurrence and progression (0.597 and 0.662, and 0.523 and 0.616, respectively, for the EORTC and CUETO models). The EORTC tables overestimated the risk of disease recurrence and progression in high-risk patients. The discrimination of the EORTC tables was even lower in the subgroup of patients treated with BCG (0.554 and 0.576 for disease recurrence and progression, respectively). Conversely, the discrimination of the CUETO model increased in BCG-treated patients (0.597 and 0.645 for disease recurrence and progression, respectively). However, both models overestimated the risk of disease progression in high-risk patients. Conclusion: The EORTC risk tables and the CUETO scoring system exhibit a poor discrimination for both disease recurrence and progression in NMIBC patients. These models overestimated the risk of disease recurrence and progression in high-risk patients. These overestimations remained in BCG-treated patients, especially for the EORTC tables. These results underline the need for improving our current predictive tools. However, our study is limited by its retrospective and multi-institutional design.

PurposeRisk classification of primary prostate cancer in clinical routine is mainly based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, Gleason scores from biopsy samples, and tumor-nodes-metastasis (TNM) staging. This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic performance of positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MRI) in vivo models for predicting low-vs-high lesion risk (LH) as well as biochemical recurrence (BCR) and overall patient risk (OPR) with machine learning.MethodsFifty-two patients who underwent multi-parametric dual-tracer [18F]FMC and [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI as well as radical prostatectomy between 2014 and 2015 were included as part of a single-center pilot to a randomized prospective trial (NCT02659527). Radiomics in combination with ensemble machine learning was applied including the [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET, the apparent diffusion coefficient, and the transverse relaxation time-weighted MRI scans of each patient to establish a low-vs-high risk lesion prediction model (MLH). Furthermore, MBCR and MOPR predictive model schemes were built by combining MLH, PSA, and clinical stage values of patients. Performance evaluation of the established models was performed with 1000-fold Monte Carlo (MC) cross-validation. Results were additionally compared to conventional [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 standardized uptake value (SUV) analyses.ResultsThe area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the MLH model (0.86) was higher than the AUC of the [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 SUVmax analysis (0.80). MC cross-validation revealed 89% and 91% accuracies with 0.90 and 0.94 AUCs for the MBCR and MOPR models respectively, while standard routine analysis based on PSA, biopsy Gleason score, and TNM staging resulted in 69% and 70% accuracies to predict BCR and OPR respectively.ConclusionOur results demonstrate the potential to enhance risk classification in primary prostate cancer patients built on PET/MRI radiomics and machine learning without biopsy sampling.

Background: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) regulates apoptotic balance and promotes cancer progression and invasion. Higher pretherapeutic GGT serum levels have been associated with worse outcomes in various malignancies, but there are no data for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Methods: Pretherapeutic GGT serum levels and clinicopathological parameters were retrospectively evaluated in 921 consecutive RCC patients treated with nephrectomy at a single institution between 1998 and 2013. Gamma-glutamyltransferase was analysed as continuous and categorical variable. Associations with RCC-specific survival were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index. Decision-curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. The median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. Results: Median pretherapeutic serum GGT level was 25 U l −1 . Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels increased with advancing T ( P <0.001), N ( P =0.006) and M stages ( P <0.001), higher grades ( P <0.001), and presence of tumour necrosis ( P <0.001). An increase of GGT by 10 U l −1 was associated with an increase in the risk of death from RCC by 4% (HR 1.04, P <0.001). Based on recursive partitioning-based survival tree analysis, we defined four prognostic categories of GGT: normal low (<17.5 U l −1 ), normal high (17.5 to <34.5 U l −1 ), elevated (34.5 to <181.5 U l −1 ), and highly elevated (⩾181.5 U l −1 ). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effect of standard features, both continuously and categorically coded GGT were independent prognostic factors. Adding GGT to a model that included standard features increased the discrimination by 0.9% to 1.8% and improved the clinical net benefit. Conclusions: Pretherapeutic serum GGT is a novel and independent prognostic factor for patients with RCC. Stratifying patients into prognostic subgroups according to GGT may be used for patient counselling, tailoring surveillance, individualised treatment planning, and clinical trial design.

Background: We aimed to assess the prognostic relevance of the new Grade Groups in Prostate Cancer (PCa) within a large cohort of European men treated with radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods: Data from 27 122 patients treated with RP at seven European centers were analyzed. We investigated the prognostic performance of the new Grade Groups (based on Gleason score 3+3, 3+4, 4+3, 8 and 9–10) on biopsy and RP specimen, adjusted for established clinical and pathological characteristics. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models assessed the association of new Grade Groups with biochemical recurrence (BCR). Prognostic accuracies of the models were assessed using Harrell’s C-index. Results: Median follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range, 13–54). The 4-year estimated BCR-free survival (bRFS) for biopsy Grade Groups 1–5 were 91.3, 81.6, 69.8, 60.3 and 44.4%, respectively. The 4-year estimated bRFS for RP Grade Groups 1–5 were 96.1%, 86.7%, 67.0%, 63.1% and 41.0%, respectively. Compared with Grade Group 1, all other Grade Groups based both on biopsy and RP specimen were independently associated with a lower bRFS (all P <0.01). Adjusted pairwise comparisons revealed statistically differences between all Grade Groups, except for group 3 and 4 on RP specimen ( P =0.10). The discriminations of the multivariable base prognostic models based on the current three-tier and the new five-tier systems were not clinically different (0.3 and 0.9% increase in discrimination for clinical and pathological model). Conclusions: We validated the independent prognostic value of the new Grade Groups on biopsy and RP specimen from European PCa men. However, it does not improve the accuracies of prognostic models by a clinically significant margin. Nevertheless, this new classification may help physicians and patients estimate disease aggressiveness with a user-friendly, clinically relevant and reproducible method.

PurposeThe goals of transurethral resection of a bladder tumor (TUR) are to completely resect the lesions and to make a correct diagnosis to adequately stage and treat the patient. Persistent disease after TUR is not uncommon and is why re-TUR is recommended in T1G3 patients. When there is T1 tumor in the re-TUR specimen, very high risks of progression (82%) have been reported. We analyze the risks of recurrence, progression to muscle-invasive disease and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) according to tumor stage at re-TUR in T1G3 patients treated with BCG.MethodsIn our retrospective cohort of 2451 T1G3 patients, 934 patients (38.1%) underwent re-TUR. 667 patients had residual disease (71.4%): Ta in 378 (40.5%), T1 in 289 (30.9%) patients. Times to recurrence, progression and CSM in the three groups were estimated using cumulative incidence functions and compared using the Cox regression model.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 5.2 years, 512 patients recurred. The recurrence rate was significantly higher in patients with a T1 at re-TUR (P < 0.001). Progression rates differed according to the pathology at re-TUR, 25.3% in T1, 14.6% in Ta and 14.2% in case of no residual tumor (P < 0.001). Similar trends were seen in both patients with and without muscle in the original TUR specimen.ConclusionsPatients with T1G3 tumors and no residual disease or Ta at re-TUR have better recurrence, progression and CSM rates than previously reported, with a CSM rate of 13.1 and a 25.3% progression rate in re-TUR T1 disease.

Background: Pelvic lymph node dissection in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for clinically localised prostate cancer is not without morbidity and its therapeutical benefit is still a matter of debate. The objective of this study was to develop a model that allows preoperative determination of the minimum number of lymph nodes needed to be removed at radical prostatectomy to ensure true nodal status. Methods: We analysed data from 4770 patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection between 2000 and 2011 from eight academic centres. For external validation of our model, we used data from a cohort of 3595 patients who underwent an anatomically defined extended pelvic lymph node dissection. We estimated the sensitivity of pathological nodal staging using a beta-binomial model and developed a novel clinical (preoperative) nodal staging score (cNSS), which represents the probability that a patient has lymph node metastasis as a function of the number of examined nodes. Results: In the development and validation cohorts, the probability of missing a positive lymph node decreases with increase in the number of nodes examined. A 90% cNSS can be achieved in the development and validation cohorts by examining 1–6 nodes in cT1 and 6–8 nodes in cT2 tumours. With 11 nodes examined, patients in the development and validation cohorts achieved a cNSS of 90% and 80% with cT3 tumours, respectively. Conclusions: Pelvic lymph node dissection is the only reliable technique to ensure accurate nodal staging in patients treated with radical prostatectomy for clinically localised prostate cancer. The minimum number of examined lymph nodes needed for accurate nodal staging may be predictable, being strongly dependent on prostate cancer characteristics at diagnosis.

Background: In pT1-T3N0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) patients, multi-modal therapy is inconsistently recommended. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic tool to help decision-making regarding adjuvant therapy. Methods: We included 2145 patients with pT1-3N0 UCB after radical cystectomy (RC), naive of neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy. The cohort was randomly split into development cohort based on the US patients ( n =1067) and validation cohort based on the Europe patients ( n =1078). Predictive accuracy was quantified using the concordance index. Results: With a median follow-up of 45 months, 5-year recurrence-free and cancer-specific survival estimates were 68% and 73%, respectively. pT-stage, ge, lymphovascular invasion, and positive margin were significantly associated with both disease recurrence and cancer-specific mortality ( P -values⩽0.005). The accuracies of the multivariable models at 2, 5, and 7 years for predicting disease recurrence were 67.4%, 65%, and 64.4%, respectively. Accuracies at 2, 5, and 7 years for predicting cancer-specific mortality were 69.3%, 66.4%, and 65.5%, respectively. We developed competing-risk, conditional probability nomograms. External validation revealed minor overestimation. Conclusion: Despite RC, a significant number of patients with pT1-3N0 UCB experience disease recurrence and ultimately die of UCB. We developed and externally validated competing-risk, conditional probability post-RC nomograms for prediction of disease recurrence and cancer-specific mortality.

PurposeTo evaluate the oncological impact of postponing radical cystectomy (RC) to allow further conservative therapies prior to progression in a large multicentre retrospective cohort of T1-HG/G3 patients initially treated with BCG.MethodsAccording to the time of RC, the population was divided into 3 groups: patients who did not progress to muscle-invasive disease, patients who progressed before radical cystectomy and patients who experienced progression at the time of radical cystectomy. Clinical and pathological outcomes were compared across the three groups.ResultsOf 2451 patients, 509 (20.8%) underwent RC. Patients with tumors > 3 cm or with CIS had earlier cystectomies (HR = 1.79, p = 0.001 and HR = 1.53, p = 0.02, respectively). Patients with tumors > 3 cm, multiple tumors or CIS had earlier T3/T4 or N + cystectomies. In patients who progressed, the timing of cystectomy did not affect the risk of T3/T4 or N + disease at RC. Patients with T3/T4 or N + disease at RC had a shorter disease-specific survival (HR = 4.38, p < 0.001), as did patients with CIS at cystectomy (HR = 2.39, p < 0.001). Patients who progressed prior to cystectomy had a shorter disease-specific survival than patients for whom progression was only detected at cystectomy (HR = 0.58, p = 0.024)ConclusionsPatients treated with RC before experiencing progression to muscle-invasive disease harbor better oncological and survival outcomes compared to those who progressed before RC and to those upstaged at surgery. Tumor size and concomitant CIS at diagnosis are the main predictors of surgical treatment while tumor size, CIS and tumor multiplicity are associated with extravesical disease at surgery.

The introduction of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) revolutionized prostate cancer (PCa) screening and ushered the PSA era. However, its use as a screening tool remains controversial and changes in the epidemiology of PCa have strongly limited its prognostic role. Therefore, we need novel approaches to improve our ability to detect PCa and foretell the course of the disease. To improve the specificity of total PSA, several approaches based on PSA derivatives have been investigated such as age-specific values, PSA density (PSAD), PSAD of the transition zone, PSA velocity and assessment of various isoforms of PSA. With recent advances in biotechnology such as high-throughput molecular analyses, many potential blood biomarkers have been identified and are currently under investigation. Given the plethora of candidate PCa biomarkers, we have chosen to discuss a select group of candidate blood-based biomarkers including human glandular kallikrein, early prostate cancer antigens, insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and its binding proteins (IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3), urokinase plasminogen activation system, transforming growth factor-β1, interleukin-6, chromogranin A, prostate secretory protein, prostate-specific membrane antigen, PCa-specific autoantibodies and α-methylacyl-CoA racemase. While these and other markers have shown promise in early phase studies, no single biomarker is likely to have the appropriate degree of certainty to dictate treatment decisions. Consequently, the future of cancer prognosis may rely on small panels of markers that can accurately predict PCa presence, stage, metastasis, and serve as prognosticators, targets and/or surrogate end points of disease progression and response to therapy.

Objective To evaluate the diagnostic performance of [ 68 Ga]Ga-PSMA HBED-CC conjugate 11 positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) in the early detection of metastases in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) for clinically non-metastatic prostate cancer, to compare it to CT/MRI alone and to assess its impact on further therapeutic decisions. Material and methods We retrospectively assessed 117 consecutive hormone-naïve BCR patients who had 68 Ga-PSMA 11 PET/CT ( n  = 46) or PET/MRI ( n  = 71) between May 2014 and January 2017. BCR was defined as two PSA rises above 0.2 ng/ml. Two dedicated uro-oncological imaging experts (radiology/nuclear medicine) reviewed separately all images. All results were presented in a blinded sequential fashion to a multidisciplinary tumorboard in order to assess the influence of PSMA-PET imaging on decision-making. Results The median time from RP to BCR was 36 months (IQR 16–72). Overall, 69 (59%) patients received postoperative radiotherapy. Median PSA level at the time of imaging was 1.04 ng/ml (IQR 0.58–1.87). PSMA-positive lesions were detected in 100 (85.5%) patients. Detection rates were 65% for a PSA value of 0.2 to <0.5 ng/ml, 85.7% for 0.5 to <1, 85.7% for 1 to <2 and 100% for ≥2. PSMA-positive lesions could be confirmed by either histology (16%), PSA decrease in metastasis-directed radiotherapy (45%) or additional information in diffusion-weighted imaging when PET/MRI was performed (18%) in 79% of patients. PSMA-PET detected lesions in 67 patients (57.3%) who had no suspicious correlates according to the RECIST 1.1 criteria on MRI or CT. PSMA-PET changed therapeutic decisions in 74.6% of these 67 patients ( p  < 0.001), with 86% of them being considered for metastases-directed therapies. Conclusions We confirm the high performance of PSMA-PET imaging for the detection of disease recurrence sites in patients with BCR after RP, even at relatively low PSA levels. Moreover, it adds significant information to standard CT/MRI, changing treatment strategies in a significant number of patients.