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Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are the primary source of dietary added sugars in children, with high consumption commonly observed in more deprived areas where obesity prevalence is also highest. Associations between SSB consumption and obesity in children have been widely reported. In March 2016, a two-tier soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) on drinks manufacturers to encourage reformulation of SSBs in the United Kingdom was announced and then implemented in April 2018. We examined trajectories in the prevalence of obesity at ages 4 to 5 years and 10 to 11 years, 19 months after the implementation of SDIL, overall and by sex and deprivation. Data were from the National Child Measurement Programme and included annual repeat cross-sectional measurement of over 1 million children in reception (4 to 5 years old) and year 6 (10 to 11 years old) in state-maintained English primary schools. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly obesity prevalence data from September 2013 to November 2019 was used to estimate absolute and relative changes in obesity prevalence compared to a counterfactual (adjusted for temporal variations in obesity prevalence) estimated from the trend prior to SDIL announcement. Differences between observed and counterfactual estimates were examined in November 2019 by age (reception or year 6) and additionally by sex and deprivation quintile. In year 6 girls, there was an overall absolute reduction in obesity prevalence (defined as >95th centile on the UK90 growth charts) of 1.6 percentage points (PPs) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 2.1), with greatest reductions in the two most deprived quintiles (e.g., there was an absolute reduction of 2.4 PP (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) in prevalence of obesity in the most deprived quintile). In year 6 boys, there was no change in obesity prevalence, except in the least deprived quintile where there was a 1.6-PP (95% CI: 0.7, 2.5) absolute increase. In reception children, relative to the counterfactual, there were no overall changes in obesity prevalence in boys (0.5 PP (95% CI: 1.0, -0.1)) or girls (0.2 PP (95% CI: 0.8, -0.3)). This study is limited by use of index of multiple deprivation of the school attended to assess individual socioeconomic disadvantage. ITS analyses are vulnerable to unidentified cointerventions and time-varying confounding, neither of which we can rule out. Our results suggest that the SDIL was associated with decreased prevalence of obesity in year 6 girls, with the greatest differences in those living in the most deprived areas. Additional strategies beyond SSB taxation will be needed to reduce obesity prevalence overall, and particularly in older boys and younger children. ISRCTN18042742.

AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally.DesignNatural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis.Setting149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker.ParticipantsIndividual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020.Main outcome measureIncidence rate ratios (IRRs) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. IRRs were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis.ResultsOn average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13% (IRR 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of public transport was not associated with any additional reduction in covid-19 incidence when the other four physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR with and without public transport closure was 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88; n=72, and 0.87, 0.84 to 0.91; n=32, respectively). Data from 11 countries also suggested similar overall effectiveness (pooled IRR 0.85, 0.81 to 0.89) when school closures, workplace closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings were in place. In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence (pooled IRR 0.86, 0.84 to 0.89; n=105) compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94; n=41).ConclusionsPhysical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves.

The spectrum effect describes the variation between settings in performance of tests used to predict, screen for, and diagnose disease. In particular, the predictive use of a test may be different when it is applied in a general population rather than in the study sample in which it was first developed. This article discusses the impact of the spectrum effect on measures of test performance, and its implications for the development, evaluation, application, and implementation of such tests.

In response to public concerns and campaigns, some United Kingdom supermarkets have implemented policies to reduce less-healthy food at checkouts. We explored the effects of these policies on purchases of less-healthy foods commonly displayed at checkouts. We used a natural experimental design and two data sources providing complementary and unique information. We analysed data on purchases of small packages of common, less-healthy, checkout foods (sugary confectionary, chocolate, and potato crisps) from 2013 to 2017 from nine UK supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Morrisons, Sainsbury's, Tesco, and Waitrose). Six supermarkets implemented a checkout food policy between 2013 and 2017 and were considered intervention stores; the remainder were comparators. Firstly, we studied the longitudinal association between implementation of checkout policies and purchases taken home. We used data from a large (n ≈ 30,000) household purchase panel of food brought home to conduct controlled interrupted time series analyses of purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from 12 months before to 12 months after implementation. We conducted separate analyses for each intervention supermarket, using others as comparators. We synthesised results across supermarkets using random effects meta-analyses. Implementation of a checkout food policy was associated with an immediate reduction in four-weekly purchases of common checkout foods of 157,000 (72,700-242,800) packages per percentage market share-equivalent to a 17.3% reduction. This decrease was sustained at 1 year with 185,100 (121,700-248,500) fewer packages purchased per 4 weeks per percentage market share-equivalent to a 15.5% reduction. The immediate, but not sustained, effect was robust to sensitivity analysis. Secondly, we studied the cross-sectional association between checkout food policies and purchases eaten without being taken home. We used data from a smaller (n ≈ 7,500) individual purchase panel of food bought and eaten 'on the go'. We conducted cross-sectional analyses comparing purchases of common checkout foods in 2016-2017 from supermarkets with and without checkout food policies. There were 76.4% (95% confidence interval 48.6%-89.1%) fewer annual purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from supermarkets with versus without checkout food policies. The main limitations of the study are that we do not know where in the store purchases were selected and cannot determine the effect of changes in purchases on consumption. Other interventions may also have been responsible for the results seen. There is a potential impact of checkout food polices on purchases. Voluntary supermarket-led activities may have public health benefits.

Background Physical activity (PA) declines during adolescence but change in different PA intensities across population subgroups is rarely explored. We describe change in sedentary (SED) time, light (LPA), moderate (MPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) assessed at three time points over 4 years. Methods Accelerometer-assessed PA (min) was obtained at baseline (N=2064), 1 and 4 years later among British children (baseline mean±SD 10.2±0.3-year-old; 42.5% male). Change in SED (<100 counts/min (cpm)), LPA (101–1999 cpm), MPA (2000–3999 cpm) and VPA (≥4000 cpm) was studied using three-level (age, individual and school) mixed-effects linear regression including participants with data at ≥2 time points (N=990). Differences in change by sex, home location and weight status were explored with interactions for SED, LPA and moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA). Results SED increased by 10.6 (95% CI 9.1 to 12.2) min/day/year. MPA and VPA decreased by 1.4 (1.0 to 1.8) and 1.5 (1.1 to 1.8) min/day/year, respectively. VPA decreased more than MPA as a percentage of the baseline value. MVPA declined more steeply among boys (3.9 (3.0 to 4.8)) versus girls (2.0 (1.2 to 2.7) min/day/year) despite lower MVPA among girls at all ages; rural (4.4 (3.5 to 5.2)) versus urban individuals (1.3 (0.4 to 2.3) min/day/year) and on weekends (6.7 (5.2 to 8.1)) versus weekdays (2.8 (1.9 to 3.7) min/day/year). MVPA was consistently lower among overweight/obese individuals (−17.5 (−3.9 to −2.5) min/day/year). Conclusions PA decreases and is replaced by SED during early adolescence in British youth. Results indicate the urgency of PA promotion among all adolescents but especially girls and in rural areas. Increasing VPA and targeting PA promotion during weekends appear important.

IntroductionHigh dietary saturated fat intake is associated with higher blood concentrations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), an established risk factor for coronary heart disease. However, there is increasing interest in whether various dietary oils or fats with different fatty acid profiles such as extra virgin coconut oil may have different metabolic effects but trials have reported inconsistent results. We aimed to compare changes in blood lipid profile, weight, fat distribution and metabolic markers after four weeks consumption of 50 g daily of one of three different dietary fats, extra virgin coconut oil, butter or extra virgin olive oil, in healthy men and women in the general population.DesignRandomised clinical trial conducted over June and July 2017.SettingGeneral community in Cambridgeshire, UK.ParticipantsVolunteer adults were recruited by the British Broadcasting Corporation through their websites. Eligibility criteria were men and women aged 50–75 years, with no known history of cancer, cardiovascular disease or diabetes, not on lipid lowering medication, no contraindications to a high-fat diet and willingness to be randomised to consume one of the three dietary fats for 4 weeks. Of 160 individuals initially expressing an interest and assessed for eligibility, 96 were randomised to one of three interventions; 2 individuals subsequently withdrew and 94 men and women attended a baseline assessment. Their mean age was 60 years, 67% were women and 98% were European Caucasian. Of these, 91 men and women attended a follow-up assessment 4 weeks later.InterventionParticipants were randomised to extra virgin coconut oil, extra virgin olive oil or unsalted butter and asked to consume 50 g daily of one of these fats for 4 weeks, which they could incorporate into their usual diet or consume as a supplement.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was change in serum LDL-C; secondary outcomes were change in total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC and HDL-C), TC/HDL-C ratio and non-HDL-C; change in weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, per cent body fat, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and C reactive protein.ResultsLDL-C concentrations were significantly increased on butter compared with coconut oil (+0.42, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.65 mmol/L, P<0.0001) and with olive oil (+0.38, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.60 mmol/L, P<0.0001), with no differences in change of LDL-C in coconut oil compared with olive oil (−0.04, 95% CI −0.27 to 0.19 mmol/L, P=0.74). Coconut oil significantly increased HDL-C compared with butter (+0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.30 mmol/L) or olive oil (+0.16, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.28 mmol/L). Butter significantly increased TC/HDL-C ratio and non-HDL-C compared with coconut oil but coconut oil did not significantly differ from olive oil for TC/HDL-C and non-HDL-C. There were no significant differences in changes in weight, BMI, central adiposity, fasting blood glucose, systolic or diastolic blood pressure among any of the three intervention groups.Conclusions and relevanceTwo different dietary fats (butter and coconut oil) which are predominantly saturated fats, appear to have different effects on blood lipids compared with olive oil, a predominantly monounsaturated fat with coconut oil more comparable to olive oil with respect to LDL-C. The effects of different dietary fats on lipid profiles, metabolic markers and health outcomes may vary not just according to the general classification of their main component fatty acids as saturated or unsaturated but possibly according to different profiles in individual fatty acids, processing methods as well as the foods in which they are consumed or dietary patterns. These findings do not alter current dietary recommendations to reduce saturated fat intake in general but highlight the need for further elucidation of the more nuanced relationships between different dietary fats and health.Trial registration number NCT03105947; Results.

Intensive treatment of multiple cardiovascular risk factors can halve mortality among people with established type 2 diabetes. We investigated the effect of early multifactorial treatment after diagnosis by screening. In a pragmatic, cluster-randomised, parallel-group trial done in Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK, 343 general practices were randomly assigned screening of registered patients aged 40–69 years without known diabetes followed by routine care of diabetes or screening followed by intensive treatment of multiple risk factors. The primary endpoint was first cardiovascular event, including cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, revascularisation, and non-traumatic amputation within 5 years. Patients and staff assessing outcomes were unaware of the practice's study group assignment. Analysis was done by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00237549. Primary endpoint data were available for 3055 (99·9%) of 3057 screen-detected patients. The mean age was 60·3 (SD 6·9) years and the mean duration of follow-up was 5·3 (SD 1·6) years. Improvements in cardiovascular risk factors (HbA 1c and cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure) were slightly but significantly better in the intensive treatment group. The incidence of first cardiovascular event was 7·2% (13·5 per 1000 person-years) in the intensive treatment group and 8·5% (15·9 per 1000 person-years) in the routine care group (hazard ratio 0·83, 95% CI 0·65–1·05), and of all-cause mortality 6·2% (11·6 per 1000 person-years) and 6·7% (12·5 per 1000 person-years; 0·91, 0·69–1·21), respectively. An intervention to promote early intensive management of patients with type 2 diabetes was associated with a small, non-significant reduction in the incidence of cardiovascular events and death. National Health Service Denmark, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Danish Research Foundation for General Practice, Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Danish National Board of Health, Danish Medical Research Council, Aarhus University Research Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme, UK National Health Service R&D, UK National Institute for Health Research, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center, Utrecht, Novo Nordisk, Astra, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Servier, HemoCue, Merck.

Little is known about the combined associations of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and hand grip strength (GS) with mortality in general adult populations. The purpose of this study was to compare the relative risk of mortality for CRF, GS, and their combination. In UK Biobank, a prospective cohort of > 0.5 million adults aged 40-69 years, CRF was measured through submaximal bike tests; GS was measured using a hand-dynamometer. This analysis is based on data from 70,913 men and women (832 all-cause, 177 cardiovascular and 503 cancer deaths over 5.7-year follow-up) who provided valid CRF and GS data, and with no history of heart attack/stroke/cancer at baseline. Compared with the lowest CRF category, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64-0.89] and 0.65 (95% CI 0.55-0.78) for the middle and highest CRF categories, respectively, after adjustment for confounders and GS. The highest GS category had an HR of 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.95) for all-cause mortality compared with the lowest, after adjustment for confounders and CRF. Similar results were found for cardiovascular and cancer mortality. The HRs for the combination of highest CRF and GS were 0.53 (95% CI 0.39-0.72) for all-cause mortality and 0.31 (95% CI 0.14-0.67) for cardiovascular mortality, compared with the reference category of lowest CRF and GS: no significant association for cancer mortality (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.48-1.02). CRF and GS are both independent predictors of mortality. Improving both CRF and muscle strength, as opposed to either of the two alone, may be the most effective behavioral strategy to reduce all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.

Background The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax. Methods We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks. Results We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs. Conclusions This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

Background Current physical activity guidelines do not distinguish between activity accumulated in different behavioural domains but some studies suggest that occupational physical activity (OPA) may not confer health benefits and could even be detrimental. The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between OPA and mortality outcomes. Methods From baseline (2006–2010), 460,901 UK Biobank participants (aged 40–69 years) were followed for a median 12.0 (IQR: 11.3–12.7) years. OPA was categorised by cross-tabulating degree of manual work and walking/standing work amongst those in paid employment ( n  = 267,765), and combined with categories of occupational status for those not in paid employment ( n  = 193,136). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate sex-stratified hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer by occupational group, and for working hours/week and non-occupational physical activity stratified by occupational group. Models included adjustment for age and a range of lifestyle, socio-economic and health-related covariates. Results During 5,449,989 person-years of follow-up, 28,740 deaths occurred. Compared to those reporting no heavy manual or walking/standing work (e.g. sedentary office workers) and adjusting for covariates, retirement was associated with lower mortality in women (HR = 0.62, CI: 0.53–0.72) and men (HR = 0.80, CI: 0.71–0.90), whereas unemployment was associated with higher mortality in men only (HR = 1.24, CI: 1.07–1.45). Within the working population, there was no evidence of differences in all-cause, CVD or cancer mortality by OPA group when comparing those reporting higher levels of OPA to the lowest OPA reference group for both women and men. Working < 35 h/week versus 35–40 h/week was associated with lower mortality in women (HR = 0.85, CI: 0.79–0.92) and men (HR = 0.83, CI: 0.78–0.89), with no interaction by OPA. Non-occupational physical activity was associated with lower mortality in working women (HR = 0.89 per 5 kJ/day/kg, CI: 0.84–0.95) and men (HR = 0.87 per 5 kJ/day/kg, CI: 0.84–0.91), with no interaction by OPA group. Conclusions Jobs classified as higher levels of OPA may not be as active as reported, or the types of physical activity performed in those jobs are not health-enhancing. Irrespective of OPA category or employment status, non-occupational physical activity appears to provide health benefits.