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Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples. Sampling strategies may bias tree-ring datasets to not accurately represent the regional response to climate change. Here, Klesse et al. use a new representative dataset to show that the International Tree-Ring Data Bank in the U.S. Southwest overestimates climate sensitivity of forests by 41–59%

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects – bark beetles and defoliators – which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree–insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Forest stocking guidelines traditionally reference self-thinning lines representing the tradeoff between maximum trees per unit area vs. maximum mean tree size for even-aged stands. While self-thinning lines are roughly linear on logarithmic scales, certain forest types display a curvilinear “mature stand boundary” (MSB). The existence of the MSB suggests that beyond self-thinning, processes such as recruitment limitation, density-independent mortality, and their interactions with site quality may also contribute to a more universal maximum size-density boundary (MSDB). To advance forest modeling and the management of mature stands under global change, we investigated: (1) how the MSDB may differ as stands biologically mature in response to climate and N deposition, (2) whether mortality and recruitment contribute to the curvilinearity of the MSDB. To accomplish this, we compiled forest inventory, climate, and total N deposition data for four western U.S. forest types (California mixed-conifer, ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, and pinyon-juniper). We examined three aspects of climate: thermal loading, aridity, and seasonality of precipitation. We used 0.95 quantile regression to model the MSDB and generalized linear modeling for mortality and recruitment. Unlike studies of even-aged stands that found abrupt MSBs, we found evidence for curvilinear MSDBs in all four forest types, with climate and/or N deposition modulating the degree of curvilinearity. Aridity constrained maximum stocking in medium-large diameter stands of California mixed-conifer and Douglas-fir, while higher growing-season precipitation constrained maximum stocking in large-diameter ponderosa pine. Heavier N deposition lowered maximum stocking in large-diameter stands of California mixed-conifer and pinyon-juniper. In California mixed-conifer and Douglas-fir, N deposition steepened the slope of the MSDB in small-diameter stands. Mortality was consistent along the MSDB for ponderosa pine, concentrated in large-diameter California mixed-conifer and Douglas-fir stands, and small-diameter pinyon-juniper stands. Recruitment was elevated in small-diameter stands of all four forest types. Our results support roles for both mortality and recruitment in driving curvilinear MSDBs. Our findings caution against assuming that self-thinning consistently defines the MSDB throughout stand development, while having important implications for the management of mature and old-growth stands under global change, especially at extremes of resource availability where the limitations of traditional tools may be most acute.

Aim Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) has the largest natural distribution of any tree native to North America. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize range-wide genetic diversity and genetic structuring in quaking aspen, and to assess the influence of glacial history and rear-edge dynamics. Location North America. Methods Using a sample set representing the full longitudinal and latitudinal extent of the species' distribution, we examined geographical patterns of genetic diversity and structuring using 8 nuclear microsatellite loci in 794 individuals from 30 sampling sites. Results Two major genetic clusters were identified across the range: a south-western cluster and a northern cluster. The south-western cluster, which included two subclusters, was bounded approximately by the Continental Divide to the east and the southern extent of the ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum to the north. Subclusters were not detected in the northern cluster, despite its continent-wide distribution. Genetic distance was significantly correlated with geographical distance in the south-western but not the northern cluster, and allelic richness was significantly lower in south-western sampling sites compared with northern sampling sites. Population structuring was low overall, but elevated in the south-western cluster. Main conclusions Aspen populations in the south-western portion of the range are consistent with expectations for a historically stable edge, with low within-population diversity, significant geographical population structuring, and little evidence of northward expansion. Structuring within the south-western cluster may result from distinct gene pools separated during the Pleistocene and reunited following glacial retreat, similar to patterns found in other forest tree species in the western USA. In aspen, populations in the south-western portion of the species range are thought to be at particularly high risk of mortality with climate change. Our findings suggest that these same populations may be disproportionately valuable in terms of both evolutionary potential and conservation value.

We document high rates of triploidy in aspen (Populus tremuloides) across the western USA (up to 69% of genets), and ask whether the incidence of triploidy across the species range corresponds with latitude, glacial history (as has been documented in other species), climate, or regional variance in clone size. Using a combination of microsatellite genotyping, flow cytometry, and cytology, we demonstrate that triploidy is highest in unglaciated, drought-prone regions of North America, where the largest clone sizes have been reported for this species. While we cannot completely rule out a low incidence of undetected aneuploidy, tetraploidy or duplicated loci, our evidence suggests that these phenomena are unlikely to be significant contributors to our observed patterns. We suggest that the distribution of triploid aspen is due to a positive synergy between triploidy and ecological factors driving clonality. Although triploids are expected to have low fertility, they are hypothesized to be an evolutionary link to sexual tetraploidy. Thus, interactions between clonality and polyploidy may be a broadly important component of geographic speciation patterns in perennial plants. Further, cytotypes are expected to show physiological and structural differences which may influence susceptibility to ecological factors such as drought, and we suggest that cytotype may be a significant and previously overlooked factor in recent patterns of high aspen mortality in the southwestern portion of the species range. Finally, triploidy should be carefully considered as a source of variance in genomic and ecological studies of aspen, particularly in western U.S. landscapes.

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind existing patterns of vegetation hydraulic traits and community trait diversity is critical for advancing predictions of the terrestrial carbon cycle because hydraulic traits affect both ecosystem and Earth system responses to changing water availability. Here, we leverage an extensive trait database and a long-term continental forest plot network to map changes in community trait distributions and quantify “trait velocities” (the rate of change in community-weighted traits) for different regions and different forest types across the United States from 2000 to the present. We show that diversity in hydraulic traits and photosynthetic characteristics is more related to local water availability than overall species diversity. Finally, we find evidence for coordinated shifts toward communities with more drought-tolerant traits driven by tree mortality, but the magnitude of responses differs depending on forest type. The hydraulic trait distribution maps provide a publicly available platform to fundamentally advance understanding of community trait change in response to climate change and predictive abilities of mechanistic vegetation models.

A global analysis of gross primary productivity reveals that drought recovery is driven by climate and carbon cycling, with recovery longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes, and with impacts increasing over the twentieth century. Ecosystem drought recovery Droughts affect ecosystem carbon storage, but the factors influencing ecosystem recovery from droughts remain poorly understood. This study finds that gross primary productivity recovery times from droughts are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics and to a much lesser extent with biodiversity and carbon dioxide fertilization. The authors find that recovery time is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes. They also observe that the area of ecosystems under active recovery and the length of recovery time have increased globally over the twentieth century. If future droughts become more frequent this may lead to a chronic state of incomplete recovery with adverse consequences for the land carbon sink. Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems 1 , 2 , 3 , is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink 2 , 4 . Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous 5 , 6 , 7 , across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century 3 , 7 , 8 , 9 . Recovery time—how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state—is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO 2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth’s climate system 10 ) and second, that drought impacts 11 (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

Forests are an incredibly important resource across the globe, yet they are threatened by climate change through stressors such as drought, insect outbreaks, and wildfire. Trailing edge forests—those areas expected to experience range contractions under a changing climate—are of particular concern because of the potential for abrupt conversion to non‐forest. However, due to plant‐climate disequilibrium, broad‐scale forest die‐off and range contraction in trailing edge forests are unlikely to occur over short timeframes (<~25–50 yr) without a disturbance catalyst (e.g., wildfire). This underscores that explicit attention to both climate and disturbance is necessary to understand how the distribution of forests will respond to climate change. As such, we first identify the expected location of trailing edge forests in the intermountain western United States by mid‐21st century. We then identify those trailing edge forests that have a high probability of stand‐replacing fire and consider such sites to have an elevated risk of fire‐facilitated transition to non‐forest. Results show that 18% of trailing edge forest and 6.6% of all forest are at elevated risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest in the intermountain western United States by mid‐21st century. This estimate, however, assumes that fire burns under average weather conditions. For a subset of the study area (the southwestern United States), we were able to incorporate expected fire severity under extreme weather conditions. For this spatial subset, we found that 61% of trailing edge forest and 30% of all forest are at elevated risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest under extreme burning conditions. However, due to compounding error in our process that results in unknowable uncertainty, we urge caution in a strict interpretation of these estimates. Nevertheless, our findings suggest the potential for transformed landscapes in the intermountain western United States that will affect ecosystem services such as watershed integrity, wildlife habitat, wood production, and recreation.

Forest dynamics in arid and semiarid regions are sensitive to water availability, which is becoming increasingly scarce as global climate changes. The timing and magnitude of precipitation in the semiarid southwestern U.S. (“Southwest”) has changed since the 21 st century began. The region is projected to become hotter and drier as the century proceeds, with implications for carbon storage, pest outbreaks, and wildfire resilience. Our goal was to quantify the importance of summer monsoon precipitation for forested ecosystems across this region. We developed an isotope mixing model in a Bayesian framework to characterize summer (monsoon) precipitation soil water recharge and water use by three foundation tree species ( Populus tremuloides [aspen], Pinus edulis [piñon], and Juniperus osteosperma [Utah juniper]). In 2016, soil depths recharged by monsoon precipitation and tree reliance on monsoon moisture varied across the Southwest with clear differences between species. Monsoon precipitation recharged soil at piñon-juniper (PJ) and aspen sites to depths of at least 60 cm. All trees in the study relied primarily on intermediate to deep (10-60 cm) moisture both before and after the onset of the monsoon. Though trees continued to primarily rely on intermediate to deep moisture after the monsoon, all species increased reliance on shallow soil moisture to varying degrees. Aspens increased reliance on shallow soil moisture by 13% to 20%. Utah junipers and co-dominant ñons increased their reliance on shallow soil moisture by about 6% to 12%. Nonetheless, approximately half of the post-monsoon moisture in sampled piñon (38-58%) and juniper (47-53%) stems could be attributed to the monsoon. The monsoon contributed lower amounts to aspen stem water (24-45%) across the study area with the largest impacts at sites with recent precipitation. Therefore, monsoon precipitation is a key driver of growing season moisture that semiarid forests rely on across the Southwest. This monsoon reliance is of critical importance now more than ever as higher global temperatures lead to an increasingly unpredictable and weaker North American Monsoon.