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"Shenkin, Susan D."
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Delirium detection in older acute medical inpatients: a multicentre prospective comparative diagnostic test accuracy study of the 4AT and the confusion assessment method
by
Goodacre, Steve
,
Stephen, Jacqueline
,
Weir, Christopher J.
in
Acute Disease
,
Aged
,
Aged, 80 and over
2019
Background
Delirium affects > 15% of hospitalised patients but is grossly underdetected, contributing to poor care. The 4 ‘A’s Test (4AT,
www.the4AT.com
) is a short delirium assessment tool designed for routine use without special training. The primary objective was to assess the accuracy of the 4AT for delirium detection. The secondary objective was to compare the 4AT with another commonly used delirium assessment tool, the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM).
Methods
This was a prospective diagnostic test accuracy study set in emergency departments or acute medical wards involving acute medical patients aged ≥ 70. All those without acutely life-threatening illness or coma were eligible. Patients underwent (1) reference standard delirium assessment based on DSM-IV criteria and (2) were randomised to either the index test (4AT, scores 0–12; prespecified score of > 3 considered positive) or the comparator (CAM; scored positive or negative), in a random order, using computer-generated pseudo-random numbers, stratified by study site, with block allocation. Reference standard and 4AT or CAM assessments were performed by pairs of independent raters blinded to the results of the other assessment.
Results
Eight hundred forty-three individuals were randomised: 21 withdrew, 3 lost contact, 32 indeterminate diagnosis, 2 missing outcome, and 785 were included in the analysis. Mean age was 81.4 (SD 6.4) years. 12.1% (95/785) had delirium by reference standard assessment, 14.3% (56/392) by 4AT, and 4.7% (18/384) by CAM. The 4AT had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90 (95% CI 0.84–0.96). The 4AT had a sensitivity of 76% (95% CI 61–87%) and a specificity of 94% (95% CI 92–97%). The CAM had a sensitivity of 40% (95% CI 26–57%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI 98–100%).
Conclusions
The 4AT is a short, pragmatic tool which can help improving detection rates of delirium in routine clinical care.
Trial registration
International standard randomised controlled trial number (ISRCTN)
53388093
. Date applied 30/05/2014; date assigned 02/06/2014.
Journal Article
Effectiveness of dyadic interventions in improving outcomes for adults with multiple long-term conditions and/or frailty and their informal carers: A systematic review protocol
by
Modig, Karin
,
Gilarova, Michaela
,
Shenkin, Susan D.
in
Activities of daily living
,
Adult
,
Adults
2026
To synthesise current evidence on the effectiveness of dyadic (pair-based) interventions in improving outcomes for adults with multiple long-term conditions (MLTC) and/or frailty (aged ≥55 years) and their informal carers.
The review protocol followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) guidelines, with the protocol registered with PROSPERO (CRD420251144604). MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov will be searched for experimental and quasi-experimental studies examining the effectiveness of community-based dyadic interventions for adults with MLTC (≥2 long-term conditions within an individual) and/or frailty (aged ≥55 years) and their informal carers (spouses/partners, other family members or relatives) published since 2010 and up to September 2025. Dyadic interventions will be defined as pair-based interventions that directly involve informal carers and care recipient adults with MLTC and/or frailty using various techniques targeted at carers, care recipients, or both to change outcomes for at least one member of the carer/care recipient pair (or dyad). Database searches will be followed by a manual search of the reference lists of included studies and lists of papers citing included studies in order to identify additional studies. Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts against the selection criteria and independently screen full texts using Covidence software. Methodological quality will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) 2.0 tool for experimental studies and the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool for quasi-experimental studies. Synthesis of evidence will be quantitative. If meta-analysis is not possible, we will follow Cochrane recommendations for quantitative Synthesis Without Meta-Analysis (SWiM) guidance.
The findings will address the evidence gap in dyadic implementation research in later life and help inform clinical decision-making, policy development and program planning for adults with MLTC and/or frailty and their carers, particularly in primary care and other community health settings.
Journal Article
Cognitive ability, education and socioeconomic status in childhood and risk of post-stroke depression in later life: A systematic review and meta-analysis
by
Cvoro, Vera
,
McHutchison, Caroline A.
,
Wardlaw, Joanna M.
in
Aging
,
Analysis
,
Biology and Life Sciences
2018
Depression after stroke is common and is associated with poorer recovery. Risk factors such as gender, age and stroke severity are established, but it is unclear whether factors from earlier in life might also contribute.
We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE and meta-analysed all available evidence on childhood (premorbid) IQ, socioeconomic status (SES), education and stroke in adulthood. We included all studies reporting data on >50 patients, calculating overall odds ratios (OR), mean difference, correlation, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and 95% predictive intervals (PI) using random effects methods. We quality assessed all studies, performed sensitivity analyses, assessed heterogeneity and publication bias.
We identified 33 studies including 2,664 participants with post-stroke depression and 5,460 without (314 participants not classified). Low education (< = 8 years) was associated with post-stroke depression in studies which defined depression as score of mild and above on a depression rating scale (OR 1.47 95% CI 1.10-1.97, p<0.01) but not in studies where depression was defined as severe depressive symptoms or a clinical diagnosis of major depression (OR 1.04 95% CI 0.90-1.31, p = 0.60). Low education was not associated with an increased risk for post-stroke depression in studies that adjusted for age and sex (OR 0.86 95% CI 0.50-1.48 p = 0.58). Those with post-stroke depression had fewer years of education than those without post-stroke depression (MD 0.68 95% CI 0.05-1.31 p = 0.04). Few studies adjusted for vascular risk factors or stroke severity. Heterogeneity between studies was moderate and was partly explained by severity of depression. In the one study identified premorbid IQ did not differ between those with post-stroke depression (mean IQ 10.1.8 SD 9.8) vs those without (mean IQ 104 SD 10.1). There were no studies that examined childhood socioeconomic status and risk of post-stroke depression.
Having less education is associated with an increased risk of post-stroke depressive symptoms but with large confidence intervals and heterogeneity. Future studies should explore the relationship between early and late life risk factors to improve risk identification and to target prevention and treatment strategies.
Journal Article
Understanding hospital activity and outcomes for people with multimorbidity using electronic health records
by
Lone, Nazir
,
Shenkin, Susan D.
,
Georgiev, Konstantin
in
692/308/174
,
692/308/409
,
692/700/228
2025
As the prevalence of multimorbidity grows, provision of effective healthcare is more challenging. Both multimorbidity and complexity in healthcare delivery may be associated with worse outcomes. We studied consecutive, unique emergency non-surgical hospitalisations for patients over 50 years old to three hospitals in Scotland, UK between 2016 and 2024 using linked primary care and hospital records to define multimorbidity (2 + long-term conditions), and timestamped hospital electronic health record (EHR) contacts with nursing and rehabilitation providers to describe intensity of inpatient care. The primary outcome was emergency hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge, analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Across 98,242 consecutive admissions, 84% of the study population had multimorbidity, 50% had 4 + long-term conditions, and 37% had both physical and mental health conditions. Both higher condition count and contacts (nursing and rehabilitation) were independently associated with the primary outcome in fully adjusted models (example adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.62, 95% CI 1.52 to 1.73 for 4 + conditions compared to no multimorbidity,
p
< 0.001; aOR 1.35, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.42 for > 8 nursing contacts compared to 1–3,
p
< 0.001). While multimorbidity was associated with longer hospital stays with more nursing and rehabilitation contacts, the distribution of contacts and activity did not differ by multimorbidity or subsequent emergency readmission status. Higher count multimorbidity was associated with an increased risk of readmission, but we observed uniformity in care despite differential outcomes across multimorbidity groups. This may suggest that EHR data-driven approaches could inform person-centred care and improve hospital resource allocation.
Journal Article
Understanding hospital rehabilitation using electronic health records in patients with and without COVID-19
by
Shenkin, Susan D
,
Georgiev, Konstantin
,
Mills, Nicholas L
in
Age groups
,
Aged
,
Aged, 80 and over
2024
Background
Many hospitalised patients require rehabilitation during recovery from acute illness. We use routine data from Electronic Health Records (EHR) to report the quantity and intensity of rehabilitation required to achieve hospital discharge, comparing patients with and without COVID-19.
Methods
We performed a retrospective cohort study of consecutive adults in whom COVID-19 testing was undertaken between March 2020 and August 2021 across three acute hospitals in Scotland. We defined rehabilitation contacts (physiotherapy, occupational therapy, dietetics and speech and language therapy) from timestamped EHR data and determined contact time from a linked workforce planning dataset. Our aim was to clarify rehabilitation required to achieve hospital discharge and so we excluded patients who died during their admission, and those who did not require rehabilitation (fewer than two specialist contacts). The primary outcome was total rehabilitation time. Secondary outcomes included the number of contacts, admission to first contact, and rehabilitation minutes per day. A multivariate regression analysis for identifying patient characteristics associated with rehabilitation time included age, sex, comorbidities, and socioeconomic status.
Results
We included 11,591 consecutive unique patient admissions (76 [63,85] years old, 56% female), of which 651 (6%) were with COVID-19, and 10,940 (94%) were admissions with negative testing. There were 128,646 rehabilitation contacts. Patients with COVID-19 received more than double the rehabilitation time compared to those without (365 [165, 772]
vs
170 [95, 350] mins,
p
<0.001), and this was delivered over more specialist contacts (12 [6, 25]
vs
6 [3, 11],
p
<0.001). Admission to first rehabilitation contact was later in patients with COVID-19 (3 [1, 5]
vs
2 [1, 4] days from admission). Overall, patients with COVID-19 received fewer minutes of rehabilitation per day of admission (14.1 [9.8, 18.7]
vs
15.6 [10.6, 21.3],
p
<0.001). In our regression analyses, older age and COVID-19 were associated with increased rehabilitation time.
Conclusions
Patients with COVID received more rehabilitation contact time than those without COVID, but this was delivered less intensively and was commenced later in an admission. Rehabilitation data derived from the EHR represents a novel measure of delivered hospital care.
Journal Article
Association between components of the delirium syndrome and outcomes in hospitalised adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis
2021
Background
Delirium is a heterogeneous syndrome with inattention as the core feature. There is considerable variation in the presence and degree of other symptom domains such as altered arousal, psychotic features and global cognitive dysfunction. Delirium is independently associated with increased mortality, but it is unclear whether individual symptom domains of delirium have prognostic importance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies in hospitalised adults in general settings to identify the relationship between symptom domains of delirium and outcomes.
(PROSPERO: CRD42018093935).
Methods
We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL,
clinicaltrials.gov
and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to November 2019. We included studies of hospitalised adults that reported associations between symptom domains of delirium and 30-day mortality (primary outcome), and other outcomes including mortality at other time points, length of stay, and dementia. Reviewer pairs independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias (Risk of Bias Assessment tool for Non-randomized Studies) and quality of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework. We performed random-effects meta-analyses stratified by delirium domain where possible.
Results
From 7092 citations we included 6 studies (6002 patients, 1112 with delirium). Higher mortality (ranging from in-hospital to follow-up beyond 12 months) was associated with altered arousal (pooled Odds Ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.33–3.37; moderate-quality evidence), inattention (pooled OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.74–3.80; low-quality evidence), and in single studies with disorientation, memory deficits and disorganised thoughts. Risk of bias varied across studies but was moderate-to-high overall, mainly due to selection bias, lack of blinding of assessments and unclear risk of selective outcome reporting. We found no studies on the association between psychotic features, visuospatial deficits or affective disturbances in delirium and outcomes, or studies reporting non-mortality outcomes.
Conclusions
Few studies have related symptom domains of delirium to outcomes, but the available evidence suggests that altered arousal and inattention in delirium are associated with higher mortality than normal arousal and attention in people with or without delirium. Measurable symptom domains of delirium may have value in predicting survival and stratifying patients for treatment. We recommend that future delirium studies report outcomes by symptom domain.
Journal Article
Whole Brain Magnetic Resonance Image Atlases: A Systematic Review of Existing Atlases and Caveats for Use in Population Imaging
by
Blesa Cabez, Manuel
,
Boardman, James P.
,
Shenkin, Susan D.
in
Brain research
,
Cadavers
,
Clinical medicine
2017
Brain MRI atlases may be used to characterize brain structural changes across the life course. Atlases have important applications in research, e.g., as registration and segmentation targets to underpin image analysis in population imaging studies, and potentially in future in clinical practice, e.g., as templates for identifying brain structural changes out with normal limits, and increasingly for use in surgical planning. However, there are several caveats and limitations which must be considered before successfully applying brain MRI atlases to research and clinical problems. For example, the influential Talairach and Tournoux atlas was derived from a single fixed cadaveric brain from an elderly female with limited clinical information, yet is the basis of many modern atlases and is often used to report locations of functional activation. We systematically review currently available whole brain structural MRI atlases with particular reference to the implications for population imaging through to emerging clinical practice. We found 66 whole brain structural MRI atlases world-wide. The vast majority were based on T1, T2, and/or proton density (PD) structural sequences, had been derived using parametric statistics (inappropriate for brain volume distributions), had limited supporting clinical or cognitive data, and included few younger (>5 and <18 years) or older (>60 years) subjects. To successfully characterize brain structural features and their changes across different stages of life, we conclude that whole brain structural MRI atlases should include: more subjects at the upper and lower extremes of age; additional structural sequences, including fluid attenuation inversion recovery (FLAIR) and T2
sequences; a range of appropriate statistics, e.g., rank-based or non-parametric; and detailed cognitive and clinical profiles of the included subjects in order to increase the relevance and utility of these atlases.
Journal Article
New models of health and social care for people in later life: mapping of innovation in services in two regions of the United Kingdom using a mixed method approach
2024
Background
Innovation for reforming health and social care is high on the policy agenda in the United Kingdom in response to the growing needs of an ageing population. However, information about new innovations of care being implemented is sparse.
Methods
We mapped innovations for people in later life in two regions, North East England and South East Scotland. Data collection included discussions with stakeholders (
n
= 51), semi-structured interviews (
n
= 14) and website searches that focused on technology, evaluation and health inequalities. We analysed qualitative data using framework and thematic analyses. Quantitative data were analysed descriptively.
Results
One hundred eleven innovations were identified across the two regions. Interviewees reported a wide range of technologies that had been rapidly introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and many remained in use. Digital exclusion of certain groups of older people was an ongoing concern. Innovations fell into two groups; system-level ones that aimed to alleviate systems pressures such as preventing hospital (re)admissions, and patient-level ones which sought to enhance health and wellbeing directly. Interviewees were aware of the importance of health inequalities but lacked data to monitor the impact of innovations on these, and evaluation was challenging due to lack of time, training, and support.
Quantitative findings revealed that two thirds of innovations (
n
= 74, 67%) primarily focused on the system level, whilst a third (
n
= 37, 33%) primarily focused on the patient-level. Overall, over half (
n
= 65, 59%) of innovations involved technologies although relatively few (
n
= 12, 11%) utilised advanced technologies. Very few (
n
= 16, 14%) focused on reducing health inequalities, and only a minority of innovations (
n
= 43, 39%) had undergone evaluation (most of which were conducted by the service providers themselves).
Conclusions
We found a wide range of innovative care services being developed for people in later life, yet alignment with key policy priorities, such as addressing health inequalities, was limited. There was a strong focus on technology, with little consideration for the potential to widen the health inequality gap. The absence of robust evaluation was also a concern as most innovations were implemented without support to monitor effectiveness and/or without plans for sustainability and spread.
Journal Article
Identifying dementia using medical data linkage in a longitudinal cohort study: Lothian Birth Cohort 1936
2023
Background
The Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) is a longitudinal study of ageing with well-characterised assessments, but until now, it has relied on self-report or proxies for dementia such as cognitive tests. Our aims were twofold:
a) to describe a framework for identifying dementia in a cohort study.
b) to report the age-specific incidence and prevalence of all-cause dementia and dementia subtypes in 865 individuals in the LBC1936.
Methods
Electronic Health Records (EHR) of all participants were reviewed, and relevant information was extracted to form case vignettes for everyone with any record of cognitive dysfunction. The EHR data sources include hospital and clinic letters, general practitioner and hospital referrals, prescribed medications, imaging and laboratory results. Death certificate data were obtained separately. Clinician assessments were performed when there was concern about a participant's cognition. A diagnosis of probable dementia, possible dementia, or no dementia was agreed upon by a consensus diagnostic review board, comprised of a multidisciplinary team of clinical dementia experts who reviewed case vignettes and clinician assessment letters. For those with probable dementia, a subtype was also determined, where possible. We compared the agreement between our newly ascertained dementia diagnoses with the existing self-reported dementia diagnoses.
Results
Self-reported dementia diagnoses were positive in only 17.8% of ascertained dementia diagnoses. The EHR review identified 163/865 (18.8%) individuals as having cognitive dysfunction. At the consensus diagnostic review board, 118/163 were diagnosed with probable all-cause dementia, a prevalence of 13.6%. Age-specific dementia prevalence increased with age from 0.8% (65–74.9 years) to 9.93% (85–89.9 years). Prevalence rates for women were higher in nearly all age groups. The most common subtype was dementia due to Alzheimer disease (49.2%), followed by mixed Alzheimer and cerebrovascular disease (17.0%), dementia of unknown or unspecified cause (16.1%), and dementia due to vascular disease (8.5%).
Conclusions
We present a robust systematic framework and guide for other cohort teams wanting to ascertain dementia diagnoses. The newly ascertained dementia diagnosis provides vital data for further analyses of LBC1936 to allow exploration of lifecourse predictors of dementia.
Journal Article
A brain imaging repository of normal structural MRI across the life course: Brain Images of Normal Subjects (BRAINS)
2017
The Brain Images of Normal Subjects (BRAINS) Imagebank (http://www.brainsimagebank.ac.uk) is an integrated repository project hosted by the University of Edinburgh and sponsored by the Scottish Imaging Network: A Platform for Scientific Excellence (SINAPSE) collaborators. BRAINS provide sharing and archiving of detailed normal human brain imaging and relevant phenotypic data already collected in studies of healthy volunteers across the life-course. It particularly focusses on the extremes of age (currently older age, and in future perinatal) where variability is largest, and which are under-represented in existing databanks.
BRAINS is a living imagebank where new data will be added when available. Currently BRAINS contains data from 808 healthy volunteers, from 15 to 81years of age, from 7 projects in 3 centres. Additional completed and ongoing studies of normal individuals from 1st to 10th decades are in preparation and will be included as they become available.
BRAINS holds several MRI structural sequences, including T1, T2, T2* and fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), available in DICOM (http://dicom.nema.org/); in future Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) will be added where available. Images are linked to a wide range of ‘textual data’, such as age, medical history, physiological measures (e.g. blood pressure), medication use, cognitive ability, and perinatal information for pre/post-natal subjects. The imagebank can be searched to include or exclude ranges of these variables to create better estimates of ‘what is normal’ at different ages.
•Brain Images of Normal Subjects (BRAINS) image-bank integrated repository project•Sharing and archiving of brain imaging and relevant phenotypic data•Linked textual data e.g. age, history, blood pressure, and cognitive ability•Living image-bank where new data will be added when available.•MRI sequences T1, T2, T2*, FLAIR, and DTI, in DICOM
Journal Article