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On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, an unarmed Black American male, was killed by a White police officer. Footage of the murder was widely shared. We examined the psychological impact of Floyd’s death using two population surveys that collected data before and after his death; one from Gallup (117,568 responses from n = 47,355) and one from the US Census (409,652 responses from n = 319,471). According to the Gallup data, in the week following Floyd’s death, anger and sadness increased to unprecedented levels in the US population. During this period, more than a third of the US population reported these emotions. These increases were more pronounced for Black Americans, nearly half of whom reported these emotions. According to the US Census Household Pulse data, in the week following Floyd’s death, depression and anxiety severity increased among Black Americans at significantly higher rates than that of White Americans. Our estimates suggest that this increase corresponds to an additional 900,000 Black Americans who would have screened positive for depression, associated with a burden of roughly 2.7 million to 6.3 million mentally unhealthy days.

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N  = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N  = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public ( N  = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.

Some individuals seek support around loneliness on social media forums. In this work, we aim to determine differences in the use of language by users—in different age groups and genders (female, male), who publish posts on Twitter expressing loneliness. We hypothesize that these differences in the use of language will reflect how these users express themselves and some of their support needs. Interventions may vary depending on the age and gender of an individual, hence, in order to identify high-risk individuals who express loneliness on Twitter and provide appropriate interventions for these users, it is important to understand the variations in language use by users who belong to different age groups and genders and post about loneliness on Twitter. We discuss the findings from this work and how they can help guide the design of online loneliness interventions.

The speed at which social media is propagating COVID-19 misinformation and its potential reach and impact is growing, yet little work has focused on the potential applications of these data for informing public health communication about COVID-19 vaccines. We used Twitter to access a random sample of over 78 million vaccine-related tweets posted between December 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021 to describe the geographical and temporal variation in COVID-19 vaccine discourse. Urban suburbs posted about equitable distribution in communities, college towns talked about in-clinic vaccinations near universities, evangelical hubs posted about operation warp speed and thanking God, exurbs posted about the 2020 election, Hispanic centers posted about concerns around food and water, and counties in the ACP African American South posted about issues of trust, hesitancy, and history. The graying America ACP community posted about the federal government’s failures; rural middle American counties posted about news press conferences. Topics related to allergic and adverse reactions, misinformation around Bill Gates and China, and issues of trust among Black Americans in the healthcare system were more prevalent in December, topics related to questions about mask wearing, reaching herd immunity and natural infection, and concerns about nursing home residents and workers increased in January, and themes around access to black communities, waiting for appointments, keeping family safe by vaccinating and fighting online misinformation campaigns were more prevalent in February. Twitter discourse around COVID-19 vaccines in the United States varied significantly across different communities and changed over time; these insights could inform targeted messaging and mitigation strategies.

The COVID pandemic placed a spotlight on alcohol use and the hardships of working within the food and beverage industry, with millions left jobless. Following previous studies that have found elevated rates of alcohol problems among bartenders and servers, here we studied the alcohol use of bartenders and servers who were employed during COVID. From February 12-June 16, 2021, in the midst of the U.S. COVID national emergency declaration, survey data from 1,010 employed bartender and servers were analyzed to quantify rates of excessive or hazardous drinking along with regression predictors of alcohol use as assessed by the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Findings indicate that more than 2 out of 5 (44%) people surveyed reported moderate or high rates of alcohol problem severity (i.e., AUDIT scores of 8 or higher)–a rate 4 to 6 times that of the heavy alcohol use rate reported pre- or mid-pandemic by adults within and outside the industry. Person-level factors (gender, substance use, mood) along with the drinking habits of one’s core social group were significantly associated with alcohol use. Bartenders and servers reported surprisingly high rates of alcohol problem severity and experienced risk factors for hazardous drinking at multiple ecological levels. Being a highly vulnerable and understudied population, more studies on bartenders and servers are needed to assess and manage the true toll of alcohol consumption for industry employees.

Past research has shown that culture can form and shape our temporal orientation–the relative emphasis on the past, present, or future. However, there are mixed findings on how temporal orientations vary between North American and East Asian cultures due to the limitations of survey methodology and sampling. In this study, we applied an inductive approach and leveraged big data and natural language processing between two popular social media platforms–Twitter and Weibo–to assess the similarities and differences in temporal orientation in the United States of America and China, respectively. We first established predictive models from annotation data and used them to classify a larger set of English Twitter sentences (N TW = 1,549,136) and a larger set of Chinese Weibo sentences (N WB = 95,181) into four temporal catetories–past, future, atemporal present, and temporal present. Results show that there is no significant difference between Twitter and Weibo on past or future orientations; the large temporal orientation difference between North Americans and Chinese derives from their different prevailing focus on atemporal (e.g., facts, ideas) present (Twitter) or temporal present (e.g., the “here” and “now”) (Weibo). Our findings contribute to the debate on cultural differences in temporal orientations with new perspectives following a new methodological approach. The study’s implications call for a reevaluation of how temporal orientation is measured in cross-cultural studies, emphasizing the use of large-scale language data and acknowledging the atemporal present category. Understanding temporal orientations can guide effective cross-cultural communication strategies to tailor approaches for different audience based on temporal orientations, enhancing intercultural understanding and engagement.

We used natural language processing to analyze a billion words to study cultural differences on Weibo, one of China’s largest social media platforms. We compared predictions from two common explanations about cultural differences in China (economic development and urban-rural differences) against the less-obvious legacy of rice versus wheat farming. Rice farmers had to coordinate shared irrigation networks and exchange labor to cope with higher labor requirements. In contrast, wheat relied on rainfall and required half as much labor. We test whether this legacy made southern China more interdependent, as measured by modern day language. Across all word categories, rice explained twice as much variance as economic development and urbanization. Rice areas used more words reflecting tight social ties, holistic thought, and a cautious, prevention orientation. We then used Twitter data comparing prefectures in Japan, which largely replicated the results from China. This provides crucial evidence of the rice theory in a different nation, language, and platform.

This study integrates social role theory and socioemotional selectivity theory to investigate the cultural universalities and differences in language use among male and female users across different age groups on Weibo and Facebook. By analyzing social media language, we aim to understand how gender and age influence linguistic patterns and reflect broader cultural norms and societal values. Aggregated language from Weibo and Facebook users ( N  = 8728 per platform; 665,377 and 742,418 posts, respectively) was analyzed by both a top-down closed-vocabulary (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count) approach and a data-driven open-vocabulary (Differential Language Analysis) approach. Our findings support and extend social role theory, showing that female users on both platforms use more communal and relational language, while male users focus on agentic and task-oriented content. Cultural dimensions, such as collectivism and individualism, modulate the expression of social roles, with Weibo users adhering more closely to traditional gender norms compared to Facebook users. Our findings also validate and extend the socioemotional selectivity theory by demonstrating how cultural frameworks shape the specific ways aging individuals pursue emotional and social goals. For example, on both platforms, age-related language patterns reveal a U-shaped trend in positive emotions, with a decline in middle age and an increase in older adulthood, reflecting a universal shift toward emotionally meaningful goals. Additionally, older users on Weibo engage more in collectivistic themes, while their Facebook counterparts focus on personal well-being and social ties. These results highlight the complex interplay between culture, gender, and age in shaping language use on social media, providing valuable insights into the cultural and societal influences on communication.

Some individuals seek support around loneliness on social media forums. In this work, we aim to determine differences in the use of language by users—in different age groups and genders (female, male), who publish posts on Twitter expressing loneliness. We hypothesize that these differences in the use of language will reflect how these users express themselves and some of their support needs. Interventions may vary depending on the age and gender of an individual, hence, in order to identify high-risk individuals who express loneliness on Twitter and provide appropriate interventions for these users, it is important to understand the variations in language use by users who belong to different age groups and genders and post about loneliness on Twitter. We discuss the findings from this work and how they can help guide the design of online loneliness interventions.