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Irrigated agriculture in South Asia depends on meltwater, monsoon rains and groundwater. Climate change alters the hydrology and causes shifts in the timing, composition and magnitude of these sources of water supply. Simultaneously, socio-economic growth increases water demand. Here we use a high-resolution cryosphere–hydrology–crop model forced with an ensemble of climate and socio-economic projections to assess how the sources of irrigation water supply may shift during the twenty-first century. We find increases in the importance of meltwater and groundwater for irrigated agriculture. An earlier melt peak increases meltwater withdrawal at the onset of the cropping season in May and June in the Indus, whereas increasing peak irrigation water demand during July and August aggravates non-renewable groundwater pumping in the Indus and Ganges despite runoff increases. Increasing inter-annual variability in rainfall runoff increases the need for meltwater and groundwater to complement rainfall runoff during future dry years.South Asian agriculture depends on water from rains, meltwater and groundwater, but climate change impacts the timing of these water sources’ availability. Projections indicate that meltwater and groundwater will become more important and will need to offset reduced rainfall during drier years.

The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region‐specific management strategies. Plain Language Summary The 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the three most severe on record. El Niño is commonly linked to droughts in southern Africa and extreme rainfall in eastern Africa but no two El Niño's are the same. We present an analysis of the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use field measurements and observations from satellites of rainfall, river flow, and lake levels in combination with insights from experts in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing river runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. This led to water supply disruption in Botswana and hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme rainfall was limited and caused only localized impacts. Improved understanding of the regional impact of El Niño will help to be better prepared for the next El Niño. Key Points Quantitative and qualitative data provide insights into hydrological impact pathways of precipitation anomalies associated with the El Niño of 2015/2016 Variable teleconnection patterns, antecedent hydrological conditions and changing socioeconomic boundary conditions led to complex impact pathways of this El Niño event Our findings show the need for diverse management responses, with adaptive reservoir management required and diversification of energy and water sources essential

Diverting river water into agricultural areas or nature reserves is a frequently applied management strategy to prevent fresh water shortage. However, the river water might have negative consequences for chemical and ecological water quality in the receiving water bodies. This study aimed to obtain a spatial image of the diverted river water propagation into a hydrologically complex polder area, the polder Quarles van Ufford in The Netherlands. We used anthropogenic gadolinium (Gd-anomaly) as a tracer for river water that was diverted into the polder. A clear reduction in the river water contribution was found between very dry conditions on 5 August 2010 and very wet conditions on 22 October. Despite the large river water impact on 5 August, the diverted river water did not propagate up into the small agricultural headwater ditches. Gadolinium proved to be an effective tracer for diverted river water in a polder system. We applied our results to upgrade the interpretation of water quality monitoring data and to validate an integrated nutrient transport model.

Especially in the Himalayan headwaters of the main rivers in South Asia, shifts in runoff are expected as a result of a rapidly changing climate. In recent years, our insight into these shifts and their impact on water availability has increased. However, a similar detailed understanding of the seasonal pattern in water demand is surprisingly absent. This hampers a proper assessment of water stress and ways to cope and adapt. In this study, the seasonal pattern of irrigation-water demand resulting from the typical practice of multiple cropping in South Asia was accounted for by introducing double cropping with monsoon-dependent planting dates in a hydrology and vegetation model. Crop yields were calibrated to the latest state-level statistics of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. The improvements in seasonal land use and cropping periods lead to lower estimates of irrigation-water demand compared to previous model-based studies, despite the net irrigated area being higher. Crop irrigation-water demand differs sharply between seasons and regions; in Pakistan, winter (rabi) and monsoon summer (kharif) irrigation demands are almost equal, whereas in Bangladesh the rabi demand is  ∼  100 times higher. Moreover, the relative importance of irrigation supply versus rain decreases sharply from west to east. Given the size and importance of South Asia improved regional estimates of food production and its irrigation-water demand will also affect global estimates. In models used for global water resources and food-security assessments, processes like multiple cropping and monsoon-dependent planting dates should not be ignored.

In a warming world an increasing number of people are being exposed to heat, making a comfortable thermal environment an important need. This study explores the potential of using Regional Internet Search Frequencies (RISF) for air conditioning devices as an indicator for thermal discomfort (i.e. dissatisfaction with the thermal environment) with the aim to quantify the adaptation potential of individuals living across different climate zones and at the high end of the temperature range, in India, where access to health data is limited. We related RISF for the years 2011-2015 to daily daytime outdoor temperature in 17 states and determined at which temperature RISF for air conditioning starts to peak, i.e. crosses a 'heat threshold', in each state. Using the spatial variation in heat thresholds, we explored whether people continuously exposed to higher temperatures show a lower response to heat extremes through adaptation (e.g. physiological, behavioural or psychological). State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold. These results indicate there is potential within India to adapt to warmer temperatures, but that a large intra-annual temperature variability attenuates this potential to adapt to extreme heat. This winter 'reset' mechanism should be taken into account when assessing the impact of global warming, with changes in minimum temperatures being an important factor in addition to the change in maximum temperatures itself. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of local heat thresholds and people's adaptive capacity, which can support the design of local thermal comfort standards and early heat warning systems.

Global water use for food production needs to be reduced to remain within planetary boundaries, yet the financial feasibility of crucial measures to reduce water use is poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a novel method to compare the costs of water conservation measures with the added value that reallocation of water savings might generate if used for expansion of irrigation. Based on detailed water accounting through the use of a high-resolution hydrology-crop model, we modify the traditional cost curve approach with an improved estimation of demand, increasing marginal cost per water conservation measure combination and add a correction to control for impacts on downstream water availability. We apply the method to three major river basins in the Indo-Gangetic plain (Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra), a major global food producing region but increasingly water stressed. Our analysis shows that at basin level only about 10% (Brahmaputra) to just over 20% (Indus and Ganges) of potential water savings would be realised; the equilibrium price for water is too low to make the majority of water conservation measures cost effective. The associated expansion of irrigated area is moderate, about 7% in the Indus basin, 5% in the Ganges and negligible in the Brahmaputra, but farmers' gross profit increases more substantially, by 11%. Increasing the volumetric cost of irrigation water influences supply and demand in a similar way and has little influence on water reallocation. Controlling for the impact on return flows is important and more than halves the amount of water available for reallocation.

The Nile is the world's longest river at 6700km and one of the world's greatest natural assets. It is a transboundary river shared by ten African countries: Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. The Nile River originates from two distinct geographical zones, the basins of the White and Blue Niles and drains an estimated 3.1 million km2 covering 10 per cent of Africa's landmass. It is estimated that 60 million people live in the basin while 300 million (40 per cent of Africa's population) live in the riparian countries.

The Amudarya River flows for 2540km from the Pamir Mountains through the Turan lowlands to the Aral Sea (see Figure 9.1). Its runoff of approximately 79km3 is generated by glacier and snowmelt in the high mountain areas of Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Most water resources are used for irrigated cotton and wheat production in the semi-arid downstream areas of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Water is a strategic and vital resource for the region's economies with agriculture accounting for approximately 30 per cent of national GDPs. Hence, water management is largely governed by the priorities of agricultural production. This increasingly leads to conflicts with the needs of other users such as hydropower generation and the fisheries in the floodplains of the river delta.