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"Simmons, Alison E."
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Hepatitis B and C in individuals with a history of antipsychotic medication use: A population-based evaluation
2023
A better understanding of links between mental illness and risk of bloodborne infectious disease could inform preventive and therapeutic strategies in individuals with mental illness.
We performed a cross-sectional study using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the seroprevalence of hepatitis B and C in individuals with and without a prior prescription for antipsychotic medications, and to determine whether differences in seroprevalence could be explained by differential distribution in known infection risk factors. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between receipt of antipsychotic medication and HBV and HCV seropositivity.
Those who had HBV core antibody had 1.64 (95% CI: 0.89, 3.02) times the odds and those with HCV antibody (anti-HCV) had 3.48 (95% CI: 1.71, 7.09) times the odds of having a prescription for at least one antipsychotic medication compared to those who did not have HBV core antibody or HCV antibody, respectively. While prior antipsychotic receipt was a potent risk marker for HCV seropositivity, risk was explained by adjusting for known bloodborne infection risk factors (adjusted ORs 1.01 [95% CI: 0.50, 2.02] and 1.38 [95% CI: 0.44, 4.36] for HBV and HCV, respectively).
Prior receipt of antipsychotic medications is a strong predictor of HCV (and to a lesser extent HBV) seropositivity. Treatment with antipsychotic medications should be considered as additional risk markers for individuals who may benefit from targeted prevention, screening, and harm reduction interventions for HCV.
Journal Article
Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization among adolescent and pediatric SARS-CoV-2 cases between May 2021 and January 2022 in Ontario, Canada: A retrospective cohort study
2023
Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been shown to reduce risk of infection as well as severe disease among those with breakthrough infection in adults. The latter effect is particularly important as immune evasion by Omicron variants appears to have made vaccines less effective at preventing infection. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the protection conferred by mRNA vaccination against hospitalization due to SARS-CoV-2 in adolescent and pediatric populations.
We retrospectively created a cohort of reported SARS-CoV-2 case records from Ontario's Public Health Case and Contact Management Solution among those aged 4 to 17 linked to vaccination records from the COVaxON database on January 19, 2022. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the association between vaccination and hospitalization among SARS-CoV-2 cases prior to and during the emergence of Omicron.
We included 62 hospitalized and 27,674 non-hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 cases, with disease onset from May 28, 2021 to December 4, 2021 (Pre-Omicron) and from December 23, 2021 to January 9, 2022 (Omicron). Among adolescents, two mRNA vaccine doses were associated with an 85% (aOR = 0.15; 95% CI: [0.04, 0.53]; p<0.01) lower likelihood of hospitalization among SARS-CoV-2 cases caused by Omicron. Among children, one mRNA vaccine dose was associated with a 79% (aOR = 0.21; 95% CI: [0.03, 0.77]; p<0.05) lower likelihood of hospitalization among SARS-CoV-2 cases caused by Omicron. The calculation of E-values, which quantifies how strong an unmeasured confounder would need to be to nullify our findings, suggest that these effects are unlikely to be explained by unmeasured confounding.
Despite immune evasion by SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccination continues to be associated with a lower likelihood of hospitalization among adolescent and pediatric Omicron (B.1.1.529) SARS-CoV-2 cases, even when the vaccines do not prevent infection. Continued efforts are needed to increase vaccine uptake among adolescent and pediatric populations.
Journal Article
Respiratory syncytial virus vaccination strategies for older Canadian adults: a cost–utility analysis
by
Gebretekle, Gebremedhin B., PhD
,
Buchan, Sarah A., PhD MSc
,
Brousseau, Nicholas, MD
in
Age Factors
,
Age groups
,
Aged
2024
ABSTRACTBackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines could reduce disease burden and costs in older Canadian adults, but vaccination program cost-effectiveness is unknown. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different age cut-offs for RSV adult vaccination programs, with or without a focus on people with higher disease risk due to chronic medical conditions. MethodsWe developed a static individual-based model of medically attended RSV disease to compare alternative age-, medical risk–, and age-plus medical risk–based vaccination policies. The model followed a multiage population of 100 000 people aged 50 years and older. Vaccine characteristics were based on RSV vaccines authorized in Canada as of May 2024, with vaccine protection assumed to last 2 years (or 3 years in scenario analyses). We calculated sequential incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in 2023 Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from the health-system and societal perspectives, discounted at 1.5%. ResultsAlthough all vaccination strategies averted medically attended RSV disease, universal age-based strategies were not an efficient use of resources compared with medical risk–based strategies. Vaccinating adults aged 70 years and older with 1 or more chronic medical condition was the optimal strategy for a cost-effectiveness threshold of $50 000 per QALY. Results were sensitive to assumptions about vaccine price, but medical risk–based approaches remained optimal compared with age-based strategies, even when vaccine prices were low. Findings were robust to a range of alternative assumptions. InterpretationVaccination programs for RSV in some groups of older Canadians with underlying medical conditions are likely cost-effective. These findings can inform the design of vaccination programs.
Journal Article
A sub-national real-time epidemiological and vaccination database for the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada
by
Acharya, Kamal
,
Fisman, David N.
,
Sturrock, Shelby L.
in
692/699/255
,
706/2808
,
Canada - epidemiology
2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for real-time, open-access epidemiological information to inform public health decision-making and outbreak control efforts. In Canada, authority for healthcare delivery primarily lies at the provincial and territorial level; however, at the outset of the pandemic no definitive pan-Canadian COVID-19 datasets were available. The COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group was created to fill this crucial data gap. As a team of volunteer contributors, we collect daily COVID-19 data from a variety of governmental and non-governmental sources and curate a line-list of cases and mortality for all provinces and territories of Canada, including information on location, age, sex, travel history, and exposure, where available. We also curate time series of COVID-19 recoveries, testing, and vaccine doses administered and distributed. Data are recorded systematically at a fine sub-national scale, which can be used to support robust understanding of COVID-19 hotspots. We continue to maintain this dataset, and an accompanying online dashboard, to provide a reliable pan-Canadian COVID-19 resource to researchers, journalists, and the general public.
Measurement(s)
COVID-19 Cases • COVID-19 Mortalities • COVID-19 vaccination
Technology Type(s)
digital curation
Sample Characteristic - Organism
Homo sapiens
Sample Characteristic - Location
Canada
Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data:
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14331311
Journal Article
Case-cohort design as an efficient approach to evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, waning, heterologous immune effect and optimal dosing interval
2024
Though widely applied in other epidemiological fields, the case-cohort study design has seen little application in the field of vaccinology. Case-cohort studies use probabilistic sampling and reweighting to draw inferences about effects (in this case vaccine efficacy) at the population level in an efficient manner. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was met with high vaccine uptake, and high rates of population testing prior to the emergence of Omicron variants of concern, in Ontario, Canada, providing an ideal environment for application of case-cohort methodology. We combined a population-based case line list and vaccination database for the province of Ontario between December 2020 and October 2021. Risk of infection after vaccination was evaluated in all laboratory-confirmed vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 cases, and a 2 % sample of vaccinated controls, evaluated using survival analytic methods, including construction of Cox proportional hazards models. Vaccination status was treated as a time-varying covariate. First and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine markedly reduced risk of infection (first dose efficacy 68 %, 95 % CI 67 %–69 %; second dose efficacy 88 %, 95 % CI 87–88 %). In multivariable models, extended dosing intervals were associated with lowest risk of breakthrough infection (HR for redosing 0.64 (95 % CI 0.61–0.67) at 6–8 weeks). Heterologous vaccine schedules that mixed viral vector vaccine first doses with mRNA second doses were significantly more effective than mRNA only vaccines. Risk of infection largely vanished during the time period 4–6 months after the second vaccine dose, but rose markedly thereafter. We conclude that a case-cohort design provided an efficient means to identify strong protective effects associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in real time, and also served to quantify the timing and magnitude of infection breakthrough risk in the same cohort. Heterologous vaccination and extended dosing intervals improved the durability of immune response.
Journal Article
Cost-effectiveness of RSVpreF vaccine and nirsevimab for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus disease in Canadian infants
by
Rafferty, Ellen
,
Gebretekle, Gebremedhin B.
,
Ximenes, Raphael
in
Allergy and Immunology
,
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized - economics
,
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized - therapeutic use
2024
Health Canada recently authorized the RSVpreF pregnancy vaccine and nirsevimab to protect infants against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease.
Assess the cost-effectiveness of RSVpreF and nirsevimab programs in preventing RSV disease in infants, compared to a palivizumab program.
We used a static cohort model of a Canadian birth cohort during their first RSV season to estimate sequential incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2023 Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for nine strategies implemented over a one-year time period, from the health system and societal perspectives. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the results.
All-infants nirsevimab programs averted more RSV-related outcomes than year-round RSVpreF programs, with the most RSV cases averted in a seasonal nirsevimab program with catch-up. Assuming list prices for these immunizing agents, all-infants nirsevimab and year-round RSVpreF programs were never cost-effective, with ICERs far exceeding commonly used cost-effectiveness thresholds. Seasonal nirsevimab with catch-up for infants born outside the RSV season was a cost-effective program if prioritized for infants at moderate/high-risk (ICER <$28,000 per QALY) or those living in settings with higher RSV burden and healthcare costs, such as remote communities where transport would be complex (ICER of $5700 per QALY). Using a $50,000 per QALY threshold, an all-infants nirsevimab program could be optimal if nirsevimab is priced at <$110–190 per dose. A year-round RSVpreF for all pregnant women and pregnant people plus nirsevimab for infants at high-risk was optimal if nirsevimab is priced at >$110–190 per dose and RSVpreF priced at <$60–125 per dose.
Prophylactic interventions can substantially reduce RSV disease in infants, and more focused nirsevimab programs are the most cost-effective option at current product prices.
Journal Article
Cost-effectiveness analysis of 21-valent pneumococcal conjugated vaccine among adults in Canada
by
Hildebrand, Kyla J.
,
Ximenes, Raphael
,
Gebretekle, Gebremedhin B.
in
Adolescent
,
Adult
,
Adults
2025
A 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV21) was recently authorized in Canada to protect adults against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD).
To assess the cost-effectiveness of PCV21 compared to current Canadian vaccination recommendations for adults of different age and risk groups.
We used a static cohort model to estimate lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), in 2023 Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), discounted at 1.5 %, in population cohorts aged 33 (midpoint of the 18–49 year age group), 50, and 65 years from the health system and societal perspectives. The primary analysis used 2022 serotype distributions for IPD cases. Additional analyses incorporated indirect effects from pediatric vaccination and used IPD serotype distributions from 2015 to 2019, to explore the impact of changes over time observed in some age groups.
For population groups currently recommended to receive PCV20 in Canada (65 years and older, 50–64 years with additional risk factors for IPD, or 18–49 years with immunocompromising conditions), PCV21 was cost-effective at a $50,000 per QALY threshold and dominated PCV20 in most scenarios when PCV21 serotypes were more prevalent. When PCV20 serotypes were equally or more prevalent than PCV21 serotypes, results were more sensitive to assumptions about indirect effects and serotype replacement. For groups not currently recommended a conjugate vaccine (50–64 years without additional IPD risk factors and 18–49 years with chronic medical conditions or unhoused populations), use of a higher-valency conjugate vaccine was a cost-effective intervention compared to no vaccination, with the optimal vaccine dependent on the proportion of IPD attributable to PCV20 and PCV21 serotypes in the population of interest. Results were sensitive to vaccine price in most scenarios.
The use of PCV21 may be cost-effective in some populations, depending on the prevalence of IPD serotypes covered by PCV20 and PCV21.
Journal Article
Lyme Disease Risk of Exposure to Blacklegged Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) Infected with Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) in Pittsburgh Regional Parks
by
McBride, Sara E.
,
Tepe, Shannon L.
,
Simmons, Alison E.
in
Adults
,
Arachnids
,
blacklegged tick
2020
Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness and sixth most commonly reported notifiable infectious disease in the United States. The majority of cases occur in the Northeast and upper-Midwest, and the number and geographic distribution of cases is steadily increasing. The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say) is the principal vector of the Lyme disease spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto) in eastern North America. Although Lyme disease risk has been studied in residential and recreational settings across rural to urban landscapes including metropolitan areas, risk within U.S. cities has not been adequately evaluated despite the presence of natural and undeveloped public parkland where visitors could be exposed to B. burgdorferi-infected I. scapularis. We studied the occurrence of I. scapularis and infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi in four insular regional parks within the city of Pittsburgh to assess Lyme disease risk of exposure to infected adults and nymphs. We found that the density of I. scapularis adults (1.16 ± 0.21 ticks/100 m2) and nymphs (3.42 ± 0.45 ticks/100 m2), infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi in adults (51.9%) and nymphs (19.3%), and density of infected adults (0.60 ticks/100 m2) and nymphs (0.66 ticks/100 m2) are as high in these city parks as nonurban residential and recreational areas in the highly endemic coastal Northeast. These findings emphasize the need to reconsider, assess, and manage Lyme disease risk in greenspaces within cities, especially in high Lyme disease incidence states.
Journal Article
Cost effectiveness of a 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in adults: A systematic review of economic evaluations
2025
In July 2024, Health Canada authorized a 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (Pneu-C-21) for use in adults.
To conduct a systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of Pneu-C-21 for preventing pneumococcal disease in adults.
We conducted a systematic search of the literature and National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups' websites on July 3, 2024. We included economic evaluations that assessed Pneu-C-21 as a vaccination strategy among adults aged 18 years and older. Costs were adjusted to 2023 Canadian dollars.
We identified 10 studies in our search, five of which were summarized in our review. No economic evaluations were conducted in Canada. All economic evaluations used static cohort models and incorporated indirect effects from paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in primary or sensitivity analyses. Although incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were heterogeneous across included economic evaluations, overall, they qualitatively identified the same vaccination strategies as optimal within the given age and risk groups. Pneu-C-21 is likely to be cost-effective in adults aged 65 years and older and adults under the age of 65 years with specific high risk conditions.
Pneu-C-21 is likely to be cost-effective in adults within specific age and risk groups. The applicability of the included economic evaluations to adults living in Canada is limited because the serotype-specific incidence of pneumococcal disease and the impact of indirect effects from pediatric vaccination varies by region and over time.
Journal Article
Impact of community mask mandates on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Ontario after adjustment for differential testing by age and sex
by
Simmons, Alison E
,
Bosco, Savana
,
Fisman, David N
in
COVID-19
,
Dependent variables
,
Disease control
2024
Mask use for prevention of respiratory infectious disease transmission is not new but has proven controversial during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In Ontario, Canada, irregular regional introduction of community mask mandates in 2020 created a quasi-experiment useful for evaluating the impact of such mandates; however, Ontario SARS-CoV-2 case counts were likely biased by testing focused on long-term care facilities and healthcare workers. We developed a regression-based method that allowed us to adjust cases for under-testing by age and gender. We evaluated mask mandate effects using count-based regression models with either unadjusted cases, or testing-adjusted case counts, as dependent variables. Models were used to estimate mask mandate effectiveness, and the fraction of SARS-CoV-2 cases, severe outcomes, and costs, averted by mask mandates. Models using unadjusted cases as dependent variables identified modest protective effects of mask mandates (range 31–42%), with variable statistical significance. Mask mandate effectiveness in models predicting test-adjusted case counts was higher, ranging from 49% (95% CI 44–53%) to 76% (95% CI 57–86%). The prevented fraction associated with mask mandates was 46% (95% CI 41–51%), with 290,000 clinical cases, 3,008 deaths, and loss of 29,038 quality-adjusted life years averted from 2020 June to December, representing $CDN 610 million in economic wealth. Under-testing in younger individuals biases estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and obscures the impact of public health preventive measures. After adjustment for under-testing, mask mandates emerged as highly effective. Community masking saved substantial numbers of lives, and prevented economic costs, during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Ontario, Canada.
Journal Article