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Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes
Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960–2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade
−1
) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade
−1
) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios.
Compound hot extremes that combine day- and nighttime heat have particularly strong impacts. Here, the authors show that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have made compound hot extremes increasingly frequent and intense, and project that under future emissions four to eight times as many people will be affected by them by 2100.
Journal Article
Assessing parental intention to vaccinate against COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the United States in late 2023
Vaccine hesitancy is a substantial public health threat. We used a national survey to query parents about their intention to vaccinate their children against COVID-19, influenza, and RSV in the fall and winter 2023-2024. We found that about 40% of parents intended to vaccinate their children against COVID-19, 63% against influenza, and 71% against RSV. Intention to vaccinate was consistently correlated with concerns about the disease, trust in health institutions, and previous vaccinations. Women showed lower intentions for COVID-19 and influenza. For COVID-19 and RSV, intentions were higher for those who thought vaccines were important. Concerns about autism were negatively associated for COVID-19. Liberals showed larger intentions for COVID-19. Major reasons for hesitancy include concerns about safety, necessity, and lack of information. The large number of unvaccinated children will likely lead to large numbers of excessive disease in children as well as exert large negative externalities on society at large.
Journal Article
Joining the herd? U.S. public opinion and vaccination requirements across educational settings during the COVID-19 pandemic
•Vaccinations mandates have long been common as a requirement to school entry.•Mandates may serve as a crucial policy tool to reign in COVID-19.•Americans large favor these mandates, on average, in general.•Support is lower for COVID-19-related mandates.•Partisanship plays an important role in predicting opposition.
With effective and safe COVID-19 vaccines beginning to be distributed across the United States, questions about who should receive the vaccine first have been the focus of public discussions. Yet, over the long-term, questions about the order of distribution will be displaced by questions about how to achieve high levels of vaccination rates. Historically, absent incentives or mandates, Americans have shown ambivalence, if not general antipathy, towards vaccinations, and vaccination rates have generally been low for many vaccines. There is evidence that vaccination requirements across educational settings are an effective policy instrument to increase vaccination rates. We administered a large national survey to assess American’s attitudes towards vaccination requirements across three educational settings (daycare, K-12 schools, and universities) in general and for COVID-19 specifically. Partisanship, gender, race, rurality, and perceptions about the appropriate role schools should play in providing health services are substantive predictors of public opinion. While Americans generally support vaccination mandates across all three settings for both types of requirements, support is consistently and significantly lower for COVID19 requirements. The effect of partisanship is accentuated for COVID-19 requirements as compared to general requirements. Drop off in support between general and COVID-19 specific requirements are driven by partisanship, gender, political knowledge, rurality, and having children in the household. Nonetheless, mandates are supported by a majority of Americans. Assessing Americans’ opinions of vaccination requirements in educational settings offers an important opportunity to explore the potential of mandates as policy instrument in the government’s arsenal against COVID-19 and guide public policy on the issues.
Journal Article
Assessing vaccine hesitancy and support for vaccination requirements for pets and potential Spillovers from humans
Growing vaccination hesitancy is well-document among humans. However, we know very little about vaccination hesitancy for pets as well as whether the two phenomena are interconnected. Moreover, support for pet vaccination requirements also remain underassessed.
We fielded a large, national survey (N = 3,958) on August 18 and August 19, 2023, to assess U.S. public opinion about the vaccination status of dogs (rabies, canine parvovirus, canine distemper, canine influenza, and Lyme disease) and cats (rabies, feline panleukopenia (parvo), feline herpesvirus-1, feline chlamydia, and feline Bordetella) in the United States. We also queried respondents about their support for vaccination requirements for the 10 diseases.
We find that the vast majority of cats and dogs are vaccinated. However, a substantial minority of pets is not, particularly for cats and for non-core vaccines. We find that attitudinal measures of human and pet vaccine hesitancy are closely related to each other. Moreover, they are strong predictors of vaccine behavior. Measures of vaccine hesitancy are also strong predictors of support for vaccination mandates. Common measures used to assess human vaccine hesitancy showed inconsistent effects. However, pet vaccinations appear to be less politically polarizing.
The high correlation between pet and human measures raises the stake for public health efforts to improve attitudes about vaccines and vaccination rates across the board. Strong support for vaccination requirements should encourage policymakers to explore policy change. Moreover, veterinarians and their associations should consider expanding the number of core vaccinations.
Journal Article
U.S. public support and opposition to vaccination mandates in K-12 education in light of the COVID-19 pandemic
Vaccination mandates have long been an effective tool in increasing vaccination rates and reducing the potential for disease outbreaks. In the wake of COVID-19, opposition to mandates in the K-12 setting has garnered more attention, and policymakers opposed to them have become more active. This study sought to assess whether these efforts are supported by the U.S. public.
We fielded a large, national survey (N = 16,461) from January to April of 2022 to assess U.S. public opinion about seven specific vaccination mandates (diphtheria, tetanus, & pertussis (DTaP); polio; chickenpox; measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR); hepatitis; human papillomavirus (HPV); and COVID-19) in K-12 educational settings.
We found that Americans are overwhelmingly supportive of all vaccination mandates with support ranging from a high 90 percent of respondents for DTaP, polio, chickenpox, and MMR to a low of 68 percent for COVID-19. Individuals who deemed vaccines safe and important, those with trust in the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration, urban residents, and ethnic and racial minorities tended to be consistently more supportive. Perceptions about vaccine effectiveness were positively associated with mandate support in most cases, as was trust in medical doctors. Respondents who believed that vaccines cause autism, those with better health and more trust in religious leaders tended to be consistently more opposed. Women were generally more supportive of mandates except for HPV and COVID-19. Ideology and partisanship affected opinion for COVID-19 as did trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We found no effects for income or education.
Vaccination mandates in K-12 have broad support among the American public, even in more controversial cases such as HPV and COVID-19. Vocal opposition and growing interest by policymakers to limit or undo vaccination mandates are not supported by the broader public.
Journal Article