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"Simons, J"
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Nobody's fool : why we get taken in and what we can do about it
\"From phishing scams to pyramid schemes, our world is filled with people who want to fool us. In Nobody's Fool, expert psychologists Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris break down the science behind deception to pull back the curtain on how we can all avoid being scammed-or even scam the scammers in return. Simons and Chabris identify ten specific features of our psychology that make us vulnerable to being tricked, from our innate tendency to treat all new information-not to mention anything that seems familiar or consistent!-as though it were true, to our failure to consider the important information that we're not receiving, to our tendency to be wary of randomness when in fact it's a sign of authenticity. They explain why all of us are fooled some of the time - whether it's by magicians, marketers, psychics, conspiracy theories, Internet bots, con artists, fraudulent scientists, or even ourselves. Weaving together entertaining stories with scientific research, Simons and Chabris show how Bernie Madoff pulled off his Ponzi scheme; why as much as half the art in leading museums is fake; why every piece of satire reaches people who take it seriously; and the one simple trick to better negotiation that we're all ignoring (yes, it's a genuine tip). They investigate everything from John Podesta giving his emails to Russian hackers to Andre Agassi's ability to read Boris Becker's mind-not to mention, how to tell if someone is lying about inventing cold fusion (even if you know nothing about physics), or if they are forging art (even if you can't tell Monet from Manet). Simons and Chabris put those principles to work, providing concrete ways that readers can build up their resistance to deception and revealing the crucial questions we should ask even before something starts to look suspicious\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
The Value of Direct Replication
Reproducibility is the cornerstone of science. If an effect is reliable, any competent researcher should be able to obtain it when using the same procedures with adequate statistical power. Two of the articles in this special section question the value of direct replication by other laboratories. In this commentary, I discuss the problematic implications of some of their assumptions and argue that direct replication by multiple laboratories is the only way to verify the reliability of an effect.
Journal Article
Wild cards III : Jokers Wild
\"The journey into high adventure soars on! Let the secret history of the world be told--of the alien virus that struck Earth after World War II, and of the handful of survivors who found they now possessed superhuman powers. Some were called Aces, endowed with powerful mental and physical prowess. The others were Jokers, tormented by bizarre mind or body disfigurements. Some served humanity. Others wreaked terror. Now, forty years later, under the streets of Manhattan an evil genius unleashes the powers of darkness--and Aces and Jokers alike must fight for their lives. Here, in the third volume of the Wild Cards series, seven of science fiction's most gifted writers take you on a journey of wonder and excitement.Includes stories by:Edward Bryant, Leanne C. Harper, George R. R. Martin, John J. Miller, Lewis Shiner ,Walter Simons, Melinda M. Snodgrass\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Constraints on Generality (COG)
Psychological scientists draw inferences about populations based on samples—of people, situations, and stimuli—from those populations. Yet, few papers identify their target populations, and even fewer justify how or why the tested samples are representative of broader populations. A cumulative science depends on accurately characterizing the generality of findings, but current publishing standards do not require authors to constrain their inferences, leaving readers to assume the broadest possible generalizations. We propose that the discussion section of all primary research articles specify Constraints on Generality (i.e., a “COG” statement) that identify and justify target populations for the reported findings. Explicitly defining the target populations will help other researchers to sample from the same populations when conducting a direct replication, and it could encourage follow-up studies that test the boundary conditions of the original finding. Universal adoption of COG statements would change publishing incentives to favor a more cumulative science.
Journal Article
Aces High
\"It struck in the wake of World War II, a mysterious disease that killed almost 90 percent of those infected. A few of the survivors gained extraordinary powers while others were blighted with severe disabilities. Some of those afflicted chose to use their new abilities to help the human race. But some took a different path. In Aces high, it's the 1980s, but a 1980s both like and unlike our own. Now, after centuries of travel through space, an extraterrestrial being called the Swarm is headed for Earth. Meanwhile, some of the aces given superpowers by the virus are hatching conspiracies to control the human world. These factions are about to collide ... and the fallout could be catastrophic\"--Page 4 of cover.
BOOK
A reproducible systematic map of research on the illusory truth effect
People believe information more if they have encountered it before, a finding known as the
illusory truth effect
. But what is the evidence for the generality and pervasiveness of the illusory truth effect? Our preregistered systematic map describes the existing knowledge base and objectively assesses the quality, completeness and interpretability of the evidence provided by empirical studies in the literature. A systematic search of 16 bibliographic and grey literature databases identified 93 reports with a total of 181 eligible studies. All studies were conducted at Western universities, and most used convenience samples. Most studies used verbatim repetition of trivia statements in a single testing session with a minimal delay between exposure and test. The exposure tasks, filler tasks and truth measures varied substantially across studies, with no standardisation of materials or procedures. Many reports lacked transparency, both in terms of open science practices and reporting of descriptive statistics and exclusions. Systematic mapping resulted in a searchable database of illusory truth effect studies (
https://osf.io/37xma/
). Key limitations of the current literature include the need for greater diversity of materials as stimuli (e.g., political or health contents), more participants from non-Western countries, studies examining effects of multiple repetitions and longer intersession intervals, and closer examination of the dependency of effects on the choice of exposure task and truth measure. These gaps could be investigated using carefully designed multi-lab studies. With a lack of external replications, preregistrations, data and code, verifying replicability and robustness is only possible for a small number of studies.
Journal Article
Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing
From early 2003 to mid-2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at a progressively increasing rate. In mid-2013, an abrupt reversal occurred, and very little net ice loss occurred in the next 12–18 months. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations reveal that the spatial patterns of the sustained acceleration and the abrupt deceleration in mass loss are similar. The strongest accelerations tracked the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative phase of the NAO enhances summertime warming and insolation while reducing snowfall, especially in west Greenland, driving surface mass balance (SMB) more negative, as illustrated using the regional climate model MAR. The spatial pattern of accelerating mass changes reflects the geography of NAO-driven shifts in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to that forcing. We infer that southwest Greenland will become a major future contributor to sea level rise.
Journal Article
The further adventures of Red Sonja
\"She lived in a savage world in an uncivilized age - a world ruled by men and governed by the sword. The[y] called her... Red Sonja - for her flame red hair, and for the smoldering fire of her pride, which gave her sword-arm a strength that few men could match, and none had ever defeated. This collection contains a variety of issues from the original Marvel Comics series 'The Savage Sword of Conan,' as well as Sonja Tales from 'Kull and the Barbarians,' with each page re-mastered for this volume. Also included is a gallery of pin-ups by Frank Thorne, Howard Chaykin, and more. These tales are where it all began, and set the stage for the current Red Sonja series from Dynamite Entertainment\"--back cover.
Book
Programmed DNA elimination of germline development genes in songbirds
In some eukaryotes, germline and somatic genomes differ dramatically in their composition. Here we characterise a major germline–soma dissimilarity caused by a germline-restricted chromosome (GRC) in songbirds. We show that the zebra finch GRC contains >115 genes paralogous to single-copy genes on 18 autosomes and the Z chromosome, and is enriched in genes involved in female gonad development. Many genes are likely functional, evidenced by expression in testes and ovaries at the RNA and protein level. Using comparative genomics, we show that genes have been added to the GRC over millions of years of evolution, with embryonic development genes
bicc1
and
trim71
dating to the ancestor of songbirds and dozens of other genes added very recently. The somatic elimination of this evolutionarily dynamic chromosome in songbirds implies a unique mechanism to minimise genetic conflict between germline and soma, relevant to antagonistic pleiotropy, an evolutionary process underlying ageing and sexual traits.
Songbirds have extensive germline–soma genome differences due to developmental elimination of a germline-specific chromosome (GRC). Here, the authors show that the GRC contains dozens of expressed developmental genes, some of which have been on the GRC since the ancestor of all songbirds.
Journal Article