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Background Predicting the details of how an epidemic evolves is highly valuable as health institutions need to better plan towards limiting the infection propagation effects and optimizing their prediction and response capabilities. Simulation is a cost- and time-effective way of predicting the evolution of the infection as the joint influence of many different factors: interaction patterns, personal characteristics, travel patterns, meteorological conditions, previous vaccination, etc. The work presented in this paper extends EpiGraph, our influenza epidemic simulator, by introducing a meteorological model as a modular component that interacts with the rest of EpiGraph’s modules to refine our previous simulation results. Our goal is to estimate the effects of changes in temperature and relative humidity on the patterns of epidemic influenza based on data provided by the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (SISSS) and the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). Methods Our meteorological model is based on the regression model developed by AB and JS, and it is tuned with influenza surveillance data obtained from SISSS. After pre-processing this data to clean it and reconstruct missing samples, we obtain new values for the reproduction number of each urban region in Spain, every 10 minutes during 2011. We simulate the propagation of the influenza by setting the date of the epidemic onset and the initial influenza-illness rates for each urban region. Results We show that the simulation results have the same propagation shape as the weekly influenza rates as recorded by SISSS. We perform experiments for a realistic scenario based on actual meteorological data from 2010-2011, and for synthetic values assumed under simplified predicted climate change conditions. Results show that a diminishing relative humidity of 10% produces an increment of about 1.6% in the final infection rate. The effect of temperature changes on the infection spread is also noticeable, with a decrease of 1.1% per extra degree.Conclusions: Using a tool like ours could help predict the shape of developing epidemics and its peaks, and would permit to quickly run scenarios to determine the evolution of the epidemic under different conditions. We make EpiGraph source code and epidemic data publicly available.

ObjectiveWe analyse the impact of different vaccination strategies on the propagation of COVID-19 within the Madrid metropolitan area, starting on 27 December 2020 and ending in Summer of 2021.Materials and methodsThe predictions are based on simulation using EpiGraph, an agent-based COVID-19 simulator. We first summarise the different models implemented in the simulator, then provide a comprehensive description of the vaccination model and define different vaccination strategies. The simulator—including the vaccination model—is validated by comparing its results with real data from the metropolitan area of Madrid during the third COVID-19 wave. This work considers different COVID-19 propagation scenarios for a simulated population of about 5 million.ResultsThe main result shows that the best strategy is to vaccinate first the elderly with the two doses spaced 56 days apart; this approach reduces the final infection rate by an additional 6% and the number of deaths by an additional 3% with respect to vaccinating first the elderly at the interval recommended by the vaccine producer. The reason is the increase in the number of vaccinated individuals at any time during the simulation.ConclusionThe existing level of detail and maturity of EpiGraph allowed us to evaluate complex scenarios and thus use it successfully to help guide the strategy for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign of the Spanish health authorities.

Agent-based epidemiological simulators have been proven to be one of the most successful tools for the analysis of COVID-19 propagation. The ability of these tools to reproduce the behavior and interactions of each single individual leads to accurate and detailed results, which can be used to model fine-grained health-related policies like selective vaccination campaigns or immunity waning. One characteristic of these tools is the large amount of input data and computational resources that they require. This relies on the development of parallel algorithms and methodologies for generating, accessing, and processing large volumes of data from multiple data sources. This work presents a parallel workflow for extending the social modeling of EpiGraph, an agent-based simulator. We have included two novel parallel social generation stages that generate a detailed and realistic social model and one new visualization stage. This work also presents a description of the algorithms used in each stage, different optimization techniques that permit to reduce the application convergence time, and a practical evaluation of large workloads on HPC systems. Results show that this contribution can be efficiently executed in parallel architectures and the results allow to increase the simulation detail level, representing a significant advance in the simulator scenario modeling. As a summary of results, the first contribution of this paper is the development of two models (a spatial and a social one) that assign geographical and socioeconomic indicators to each simulated individual (i.e., agents), reproducing the real social distribution of the city of Madrid. The second contribution presents an improved parallel and distributed algorithm that executes the two aforementioned models using different parallelization strategies and preserving the load balance.

The development of adaptive scheduling algorithms that take advantage of malleability has become a crucial area of research in many large-scale projects. Malleable workloads can improve the system’s performance but, at the same time, provide an extra dimension to the scheduling problem. This paper proposes an adaptive, performance-based job scheduling method that emphasizes the backfilling concept with malleability. The proposed method performs the malleability operations only when the estimated execution time of the involved applications is better than or equal to the execution time on the allocated resources without reconfiguration. The reconfiguration feasibility is determined by performance models considering the application scalability and reconfiguration overheads. Different policies for implementing malleability are presented, each targeting a specific workload in terms of job size and scalability. The comprehensive evaluation shows an improvement in the slowdown up to 49% compared to the non-adaptive baseline scheduling algorithm.

This work presents a HPC framework that provides new strategies for resource management and job scheduling, based on executing different applications in shared compute nodes, maximizing platform utilization. The framework includes a scalable monitoring tool that is able to analyze the platform’s compute node utilization. We also introduce an extension of CLARISSE, a middleware for data-staging coordination and control on large-scale HPC platforms that uses the information provided by the monitor in combination with application-level analysis to detect performance degradation in the running applications. This degradation, caused by the fact that the applications share the compute nodes and may compete for their resources, is avoided by means of dynamic application migration. A description of the architecture, as well as a practical evaluation of the proposal, shows significant performance improvements up to 20% in the makespan and 10% in energy consumption compared to a non-optimized execution.

Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match real data from NYSDOH. Our results show that our simulator can be a useful tool in understanding the differences in the evolution of an epidemic within populations with different characteristics and can provide guidance with regard to which, and how many, individuals should be vaccinated to slow down the virus propagation and reduce the number of infections.

Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6-12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1-8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated.