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Reactive malaria strategies are predicated on the assumption that individuals infected with malaria are clustered within households or neighbourhoods. Despite the widespread programmatic implementation of reactive strategies, little empirical evidence exists as to whether such strategies are appropriate and, if so, how they should be most effectively implemented. We collated 2 different datasets to assess clustering of malaria infections within households: (i) demographic health survey (DHS) data, integrating household information and patent malaria infection, recent fever, and recent treatment status in children; and (ii) data from cross-sectional and reactive detection studies containing information on the household and malaria infection status (patent and subpatent) of all-aged individuals. Both datasets were used to assess the odds of infections clustering within index households, where index households were defined based on whether they contained infections detectable through one of 3 programmatic strategies: (a) Reactive Case Detection (RACD) classifed by confirmed clinical cases, (b) Mass Screen and Treat (MSAT) classifed by febrile, symptomatic infections, and (c) Mass Test and Treat (MTAT) classifed by infections detectable using routine diagnostics. Data included 59,050 infections in 208,140 children under 7 years old (median age = 2 years, minimum = 2, maximum = 7) by microscopy/rapid diagnostic test (RDT) from 57 DHSs conducted between November 2006 and December 2018 from 23 African countries. Data representing 11,349 infections across all ages (median age = 22 years, minimum = 0.5, maximum = 100) detected by molecular tools in 132,590 individuals in 43 studies published between April 2006 and May 2019 in 20 African, American, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries were obtained from the published literature. Extensive clustering was observed-overall, there was a 20.40 greater (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.35-20.45; P < 0.001) odds of patent infections (according to the DHS data) and 5.13 greater odds (95% CI 3.85-6.84; P < 0.001) of molecularly detected infections (from the published literature) detected within households in which a programmatically detectable infection resides. The strongest degree of clustering identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/ loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was observed using the MTAT strategy (odds ratio [OR] = 6.79, 95% CI 4.42-10.43) but was not significantly different when compared to MSAT (OR = 5.2, 95% CI 3.22-8.37; P-difference = 0.883) and RACD (OR = 4.08, 95% CI 2.55-6.53; P-difference = 0.29). Across both datasets, clustering became more prominent when transmission was low. However, limitations to our analysis include not accounting for any malaria control interventions in place, malaria seasonality, or the likely heterogeneity of transmission within study sites. Clustering may thus have been underestimated. In areas where malaria transmission is peri-domestic, there are programmatic options for identifying households where residual infections are likely to be found. Combining these detection strategies with presumptively treating residents of index households over a sustained time period could contribute to malaria elimination efforts.

The majority of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections in low-endemic settings are asymptomatic. The relative contribution to the infectious reservoir of these infections compared to clinical malaria cases is currently unknown. We assessed infectivity of passively recruited symptomatic malaria patients (n = 41) and community-recruited asymptomatic individuals with microscopy-detected (n = 41) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-detected infections (n = 82) using membrane feeding assays with Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes in Adama, Ethiopia. Malaria incidence and prevalence data were used to estimate the contributions of these populations to the infectious reservoir. Overall, 34.9% (29/83) of P. vivax- and 15.1% (8/53) P. falciparum-infected individuals infected ≥1 mosquitoes. Mosquito infection rates were strongly correlated with asexual parasite density for P. vivax (ρ = 0.63; P < .001) but not for P. falciparum (ρ = 0.06; P = .770). Plasmodium vivax symptomatic infections were more infectious to mosquitoes (infecting 46.5% of mosquitoes, 307/660) compared to asymptomatic microscopy-detected (infecting 12.0% of mosquitoes, 80/667; P = .005) and PCR-detected infections (infecting 0.8% of mosquitoes, 6/744; P < .001). Adjusting for population prevalence, symptomatic, asymptomatic microscopy-detected, and PCR-detected infections were responsible for 8.0%, 76.2%, and 15.8% of the infectious reservoir for P. vivax, respectively. For P. falciparum, mosquito infections were sparser and also predominantly from asymptomatic infections. In this low-endemic setting aiming for malaria elimination, asymptomatic infections were highly prevalent and responsible for the majority of onward mosquito infections. The early identification and treatment of asymptomatic infections might accelerate elimination efforts.

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have transformed malaria diagnosis. The most prevalent P. falciparum RDTs detect histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). However, pfhrp2 gene deletions yielding false-negative RDTs, first reported in South America in 2010, have been confirmed in Africa and Asia. We developed a mathematical model to explore the potential for RDT-led diagnosis to drive selection of pfhrp2-deleted parasites. Low malaria prevalence and high frequencies of people seeking treatment resulted in the greatest selection pressure. Calibrating our model against confirmed pfhrp2-deletions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, we estimate a starting frequency of 6% pfhrp2-deletion prior to RDT introduction. Furthermore, the patterns observed necessitate a degree of selection driven by the introduction of PfHRP2-based RDT-guided treatment. Combining this with parasite prevalence and treatment coverage estimates, we map the model-predicted spread of pfhrp2-deletion, and identify the geographic regions in which surveillance for pfhrp2-deletion should be prioritised. Since the turn of the millennium, a large increase in international funding has helped to reduce the public health impact of malaria. The introduction of rapid diagnostic tests has played a central role in these efforts, particularly in remote areas that are heavily affected by the disease. These tests analyse human blood samples for specific proteins that are produced by malaria parasites. The most common rapid diagnostic tests for malaria detect a protein called HRP2, which is produced by the deadliest malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Recently, however, cases have emerged where the tests have failed to detect these malaria infections. The first occurred in South America, and were found to be because some malaria parasites no longer possessed the gene that produces HRP2. Since then, malaria parasites that lack this gene have been found in several locations in Africa. This raises the question of whether using the tests favours the survival and spread of parasites that cannot produce the HRP2 protein. Using mathematical modelling techniques, Watson et al. now present evidence that suggests that the use of HRP2-detecting rapid diagnostic tests over the past 10 years could have favoured the evolution of malaria parasites that lack this protein. Furthermore, the models suggest that the conditions that are most likely to cause such selection are places where malaria infections are not common but people seek treatment at high rates. Using this information, Watson et al. created a map of 160 locations in Africa most at risk of rapid diagnostic test-driven selection against the gene that produces HRP2. Public health authorities could use these maps to determine where they should more closely monitor malaria parasites to see if they lack this gene. Future genetic investigations will be required in the high-risk areas to confirm and refine the predictions. The development of rapid diagnostic tests that detect other malaria proteins will also be essential if malaria parasites that lack HRP2 continue to spread.

Mass-screen-and-treat and targeted mass-drug-administration strategies are being considered as a means to interrupt transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. However, the effectiveness of such strategies will depend on the extent to which current and future diagnostics are able to detect those individuals who are infectious to mosquitoes. We estimate the relationship between parasite density and onward infectivity using sensitive quantitative parasite diagnostics and mosquito feeding assays from Burkina Faso. We find that a diagnostic with a lower detection limit of 200 parasites per microlitre would detect 55% of the infectious reservoir (the combined infectivity to mosquitoes of the whole population weighted by how often each individual is bitten) whereas a test with a limit of 20 parasites per microlitre would detect 83% and 2 parasites per microlitre would detect 95% of the infectious reservoir. Using mathematical models, we show that increasing the diagnostic sensitivity from 200 parasites per microlitre (equivalent to microscopy or current rapid diagnostic tests) to 2 parasites per microlitre would increase the number of regions where transmission could be interrupted with a mass-screen-and-treat programme from an entomological inoculation rate below 1 to one of up to 4. The higher sensitivity diagnostic could reduce the number of treatment rounds required to interrupt transmission in areas of lower prevalence. We predict that mass-screen-and-treat with a highly sensitive diagnostic is less effective than mass drug administration owing to the prophylactic protection provided to uninfected individuals by the latter approach. In low-transmission settings such as those in Southeast Asia, we find that a diagnostic tool with a sensitivity of 20 parasites per microlitre may be sufficient for targeted mass drug administration because this diagnostic is predicted to identify a similar village population prevalence compared with that currently detected using polymerase chain reaction if treatment levels are high and screening is conducted during the dry season. Along with other factors, such as coverage, choice of drug, timing of the intervention, importation of infections, and seasonality, the sensitivity of the diagnostic can play a part in increasing the chance of interrupting transmission. This article has not been written or reviewed by Nature editors. Nature accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided.

Background A new more highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (HS-RDT) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria (Alere™/Abbott Malaria Ag P.f RDT [05FK140], now called NxTek ™ Eliminate Malaria Ag Pf ) was launched in 2017. The test has already been used in many research studies in a wide range of geographies and use cases. Methods In this study, we collate all published and available unpublished studies that use the HS-RDT and assess its performance in (i) prevalence surveys, (ii) clinical diagnosis, (iii) screening pregnant women, and (iv) active case detection. Two individual-level data sets from asymptomatic populations are used to fit logistic regression models to estimate the probability of HS-RDT positivity based on histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) concentration and parasite density. The performance of the HS-RDT in prevalence surveys is estimated by calculating the sensitivity and positive proportion in comparison to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and conventional malaria RDTs. Results We find that across 18 studies, in prevalence surveys, the mean sensitivity of the HS-RDT is estimated to be 56.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.9–65.4%) compared to 44.3% (95% CI 32.6–56.0%) for a conventional RDT (co-RDT) when using nucleic acid amplification techniques as the reference standard. In studies where prevalence was estimated using both the HS-RDT and a co-RDT, we found that prevalence was on average 46% higher using a HS-RDT compared to a co-RDT. For use in clinical diagnosis and screening pregnant women, the HS-RDT was not significantly more sensitive than a co-RDT. Conclusions Overall, the evidence presented here suggests that the HS-RDT is more sensitive in asymptomatic populations and could provide a marginal improvement in clinical diagnosis and screening pregnant women. Although the HS-RDT has limited temperature stability and shelf-life claims compared to co-RDTs, there is no evidence to suggest, given this test has the same cost as current RDTs, it would have any negative impacts in terms of malaria misdiagnosis if it were widely used in all four population groups explored here.

Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur. We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million) cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653) lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166) per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million) cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263) deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening) in this analysis. Our model estimates that PMI has played a significant role in reducing malaria cases and deaths since its inception. Reductions in funding to PMI could lead to large increases in the number of malaria cases and deaths, damaging global goals of malaria control and elimination.

Background Artemisinin and partner drug resistant malaria parasites have emerged in Southeast Asia. If resistance were to emerge in Africa it could have a devastating impact on malaria-related morbidity and mortality. This study estimates the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance on disease burden in Africa if it were to emerge. Methods Using data from Asia and Africa, five possible artemisinin and partner drug resistance scenarios are characterized. An individual-based malaria transmission model is used to estimate the impact of each resistance scenario on clinical incidence and parasite prevalence across Africa. Artemisinin resistance is characterized by slow parasite clearance and partner drug resistance is associated with late clinical failure or late parasitological failure. Results Scenarios with high levels of recrudescent infections resulted in far greater increases in clinical incidence compared to scenarios with high levels of slow parasite clearance. Across Africa, it is estimated that artemisinin and partner drug resistance at levels similar to those observed in Oddar Meanchey province in Cambodia could result in an additional 78 million cases over a 5 year period, a 7 % increase in cases compared to a scenario with no resistance. A scenario with high levels of slow clearance but no recrudescence resulted in an additional 10 million additional cases over the same period. Conclusion Artemisinin resistance is potentially a more pressing concern than partner drug resistance due to the lack of viable alternatives. However, it is predicted that a failing partner drug will result in greater increases in malaria cases and morbidity than would be observed from artemisinin resistance only.

Surveillance and diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum malaria relies predominantly on rapid diagnostic tests (RDT). However, false-negative (FN) RDT results are known to occur for a variety of reasons, including operator error, poor storage conditions, pfhrp2/3 gene deletions, poor performance of specific RDT brands and lots, and low-parasite density infections. We used RDT and microscopy results from 85 000 children enrolled in Demographic Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys from 2009 to 2015 across 19 countries to explore the distribution of and risk factors for FN-RDTs in sub-Saharan Africa, where malaria’s impact is greatest. We sought to (1) identify spatial and demographic patterns of FN-RDT results, defined as a negative RDT but positive gold standard microscopy test, and (2) estimate the percentage of infections missed within community-based malaria surveys due to FN-RDT results. Across all studies, 19.9% (95% CI 19.0% to 20.9%) of microscopy-positive subjects were negative by RDT. The distribution of FN-RDT results was spatially heterogeneous. The variance in FN-RDT results was best explained by the prevalence of malaria, with an increase in FN-RDT results observed at lower transmission intensities, among younger subjects, and in urban areas. The observed proportion of FN-RDT results was not predicted by differences in RDT brand or lot performance alone. These findings characterise how the probability of detection by RDTs varies in different transmission settings and emphasise the need for careful interpretation of prevalence estimates based on surveys employing RDTs alone. Further studies are needed to characterise the cost-effectiveness of improved malaria diagnostics (eg, PCR or highly sensitive RDTs) in community-based surveys, especially in regions of low transmission intensity or high urbanicity.

Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are effective tools to diagnose and inform the treatment of malaria in adults and children. The recent development of a highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (HS-RDT) for Plasmodium falciparum has prompted questions over whether it could improve the diagnosis of malaria in pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes in malaria endemic areas. Methods This landscape review collates studies addressing the clinical performance of the HS-RDT. Thirteen studies were identified comparing the HS-RDT and conventional RDT (co-RDT) to molecular methods to detect malaria in pregnancy. Using data from five completed studies, the association of epidemiological and pregnancy-related factors on the sensitivity of HS-RDT, and comparisons with co-RDT were investigated. The studies were conducted in 4 countries over a range of transmission intensities in largely asymptomatic women. Results Sensitivity of both RDTs varied widely (HS-RDT range 19.6 to 85.7%, co-RDT range 22.8 to 82.8% compared to molecular testing) yet HS-RDT detected individuals with similar parasite densities across all the studies including different geographies and transmission areas [geometric mean parasitaemia around 100 parasites per µL (p/µL)]. HS-RDTs were capable of detecting low-density parasitaemias and in one study detected around 30% of infections with parasite densities of 0–2 p/µL compared to the co-RDT in the same study which detected around 15%. Conclusion The HS-RDT has a slightly higher analytical sensitivity to detect malaria infections in pregnancy than co-RDT but this mostly translates to only fractional and not statistically significant improvement in clinical performance by gravidity, trimester, geography or transmission intensity. The analysis presented here highlights the need for larger and more studies to evaluate incremental improvements in RDTs. The HS-RDT could be used in any situation where co-RDT are currently used for P. falciparum diagnosis, if storage conditions can be adhered to.

The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson's correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2-90%) in 1975. This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools.