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The current classification of animal viruses is largely based on the virus molecular world. Less attention is given to why and how virus fitness results from the success of virus transmission. Virus transmission reflects the infection-shedding-transmission dynamics, and with it, the organ system involvement and other, macroscopic dimensions of the host environment. This study describes the transmission ecology of the world main livestock viruses, 36 in total, a mix of RNA, DNA and retroviruses. Following an iterative process, the viruses are virtually ranked in an outer- to inner-body fashion, by organ system, on ecological grounds. Also portrayed are the shifts in virus host tropism and virus genome. The synthesis of the findings reveals a predictive virus evolution framework, based on the outer- to inner-body changes in the interplay of host environment-transmission modes-organ system involvement-host cell infection cycle-virus genome. Outer-body viruses opportunistically respond to the variation in the external environment. For example, respiratory and enteric viruses tend to be associated with poultry and pig mass rearing. Ruminant and equine viruses tend to be more deep-rooted and host-specific, and also establish themselves in the vital inner-body systems. It is concluded that the framework may assist the study of new emerging viruses and pandemic risks.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model's potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

In wildlife, the natural reservoir host for most animal viruses, overt clinical infections are generally absent. In this paper it is hypothesized that for hundreds of millions of years viruses co-evolved with arthropods, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals, in a friendly manner, by minimizing virus replication costs and host damage. This virus-host mutualism hypothesis may be viewed as diametrically opposite to the virulence transmission hypothesis. Building on previous work, the transmission ecologies of 36 of the world main livestock viruses are examined in more detail. Viruses and organ systems are aligned on ecological grounds, in an outer to inner-body fashion. The virus-host interplay changes from acute to persistent infection to ever more virus-host intimacy. From outer to inner-body virus-host mutualism is on the increase. Virus-host antagonism increases from inner to outer-body. Also explored is the role of the host domain in mutualism-antagonism evolution. For this, the virus evolution trajectory upon a host shift from wildlife to humans or livestock is examined. Again, epithelial viruses are contrasted to nonepithelial, fully internalized viruses. It is found that a-clinical enteric viruses of wild birds and bats, in humans and livestock evolve as respiratory or also enteric pathogens. Viral virulence is most prominent among respiratory and enteric poultry and pig viruses. Regarding the internalized viruses, it is found that upon a transfer from wildlife to humans or livestock as host, the virus evolves to return to the sylvatic trait profile, very gradually so. Collectively, the results of this study corroborate the notion that in natural ecosystems friendly virus-host relationships tend to be selected for. Evolution of viral virulence and other forms of pathogenic fitness, including immune-suppression, primarily occur in animal mass-rearing and so are anthropogenic in nature. The crowd agents circulating in humans as host take an intermediary position.

In wildlife, the natural reservoir host for most animal viruses, overt clinical infections are generally absent. In this paper it is hypothesized that for hundreds of millions of years viruses co-evolved with arthropods, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals, in a friendly manner, by minimizing virus replication costs and host damage. This virushost mutualism hypothesis may be viewed as diametrically opposite to the virulence-transmission hypothesis. Building on previous work, the transmission ecologies of 36 of the world main livestock viruses are examined in more detail. Viruses and organ systems are aligned on ecological grounds, in an outer- to inner-body fashion. The virus-host interplay changes from acute to persistent infection to ever more virus-host intimacy. From outer- to inner-body virushost mutualism is on the increase. Virus-host antagonism increases from inner- to outer-body. Also explored is the role of the host domain in mutualism-antagonism evolution. For this, the virus evolution trajectory upon a host shift from wildlife to humans or livestock is examined. Again, epithelial viruses are contrasted to non-epithelial, fully internalized viruses. It is found that a-clinical enteric viruses of wild birds and bats, in humans and livestock evolve as respiratory or also enteric pathogens. Viral virulence is most prominent among respiratory and enteric poultry and pig viruses. Regarding the internalized viruses, it is found that upon a transfer from wildlife to humans or livestock as host, the virus evolves to return to the sylvatic trait profile, very gradually so. Collectively, the results of this study corroborate the notion that in natural ecosystems friendly virus-host relationships tend to be selected for. Evolution of viral virulence and other forms of pathogenic fitness, including immune-suppression, primarily occur in animal mass rearing and so are anthropogenic in nature. The crowd agents circulating in humans as host take an intermediary position.

Gaining insight in likely disease emergence scenarios is critical to preventing such events from happening. Recent focus has been on emerging zoonoses and on identifying common patterns and drivers of emerging diseases. However, no overarching framework exists to integrate knowledge on all emerging infectious disease events. Here, we propose such a conceptual framework based on changes in the interplay of pathogens, hosts and environment that lead to the formation of novel disease patterns and pathogen genetic adjustment. We categorize infectious disease emergence events into three groups: (i) pathogens showing up in a novel host, ranging from spill-over, including zoonoses, to complete species jumps; (ii) mutant pathogens displaying novel traits in the same host, including an increase in virulence, antimicrobial resistance and host immune escape; and (iii) disease complexes emerging in a new geographic area, either through range expansion or through long distance jumps. Each of these categories is characterized by a typical set of drivers of emergence, matching pathogen trait profiles, disease ecology and transmission dynamics. Our framework may assist in disentangling and structuring the rapidly growing amount of available information on infectious diseases. Moreover, it may contribute to a better understanding of how human action changes disease landscapes globally.

The history of agriculture includes many animal and plant disease events that have had major consequences for the sector, as well as for humans. At the same time, human activities beyond agriculture have often driven the emergence of diseases. The more that humans expand the footprint of the global population, encroach into natural habitats, alter these habitats to extract resources and intensify food production, as well as move animals, people and commodities along with the pathogens they carry, the greater the potential for pathogens and pests to spread and for infection to emerge or re‐emerge. While essential to human well‐being, producing food also plays a major role in disease dynamics. The risk of emergence of pests and pathogens has increased as a consequence of global changes in the way food is produced, moved and consumed. Climate change is likely to increase pressure on the availability of food and provide newly suitable conditions for invasive pests and pathogens. Human population displacements due to economic, political and humanitarian crises represent another set of potential drivers for emerging issues. The overlapping drivers of plant, animal and human disease emergence and environmental changes point towards the concept of ‘One Health’. This paradigm underlines the urgent need to understand the influence of human behaviour and incorporate this understanding into our approach to emerging risks. For this, we face two major challenges. One is cultural; the second is methodological. We have to look at systems not under the narrow view of specific hazards but with a wider approach to system dynamics, and consider a broad spectrum of potential outcomes in terms of risk. In addition, we have to make sense of the vast amounts of data that are available in the modern age. This paper aims to help in preparing for the cultural and methodological shifts needed in our approach to emerging risks.

Nigeria was the first African country to report highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus outbreaks in February 2006 and has since been the most severely hit country in sub-Saharan Africa. A retrospective survey carried out towards the end of 2007, coupled with follow-up spatial analysis, support the notion that the H5N1 virus may have spread from rural areas of northern Nigeria near wetlands frequented by palaearctic migratory birds. Possibly, this could have happened already during November to December 2005, one or two months prior to the first officially reported outbreak in a commercial poultry farm (Kaduna state). It is plausible that backyard poultry played a more important role in the H5N1 propagation than thought previously. Farming landscapes with significant numbers of domestic ducks may have helped to bridge the geographical and ecological gap between the waterfowl in the wetlands and the densely populated poultry rich states in north-central Nigeria, where the virus had more sizeable, visible impact.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May–June–July 2009 in China (Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has spread across Eurasia and into Africa. Its persistence in a number of countries continues to disrupt poultry production, impairs smallholder livelihoods, and raises the risk a genotype adapted to human-to-human transmission may emerge. While previous studies identified domestic duck reservoirs as a primary risk factor associated with HPAI H5N1 persistence in poultry in Southeast Asia, little is known of such factors in countries with different agro-ecological conditions, and no study has investigated the impact of such conditions on HPAI H5N1 epidemiology at the global scale. This study explores the patterns of HPAI H5N1 persistence worldwide, and for China, Indonesia, and India includes individual provinces that have reported HPAI H5N1 presence during the 2004–2008 period. Multivariate analysis of a set of 14 agricultural, environmental, climatic, and socio-economic factors demonstrates in quantitative terms that a combination of six variables discriminates the areas with human cases and persistence: agricultural population density, duck density, duck by chicken density, chicken density, the product of agricultural population density and chicken output/input ratio, and purchasing power per capita. The analysis identifies five agro-ecological clusters, or niches, representing varying degrees of disease persistence. The agro-ecological distances of all study areas to the medoid of the niche with the greatest number of human cases are used to map HPAI H5N1 risk globally. The results indicate that few countries remain where HPAI H5N1 would likely persist should it be introduced.