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"Smith, Jim"
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From evolutionary computation to the evolution of things
Evolution has provided a source of inspiration for algorithm designers since the birth of computers. The resulting field, evolutionary computation, has been successful in solving engineering tasks ranging in outlook from the molecular to the astronomical. Today, the field is entering a new phase as evolutionary algorithms that take place in hardware are developed, opening up new avenues towards autonomous machines that can adapt to their environment. We discuss how evolutionary computation compares with natural evolution and what its benefits are relative to other computing approaches, and we introduce the emerging area of artificial evolution in physical systems.
Journal Article
Principles of Bayesian Inference Using General Divergence Criteria
When it is acknowledged that all candidate parameterised statistical models are misspecified relative to the data generating process, the decision maker (DM) must currently concern themselves with inference for the parameter value minimising the Kullback–Leibler (KL)-divergence between the model and this process (Walker, 2013). However, it has long been known that minimising the KL-divergence places a large weight on correctly capturing the tails of the sample distribution. As a result, the DM is required to worry about the robustness of their model to tail misspecifications if they want to conduct principled inference. In this paper we alleviate these concerns for the DM. We advance recent methodological developments in general Bayesian updating (Bissiri, Holmes & Walker, 2016) to propose a statistically well principled Bayesian updating of beliefs targeting the minimisation of more general divergence criteria. We improve both the motivation and the statistical foundations of existing Bayesian minimum divergence estimation (Hooker & Vidyashankar, 2014; Ghosh & Basu, 2016), allowing the well principled Bayesian to target predictions from the model that are close to the genuine model in terms of some alternative divergence measure to the KL-divergence. Our principled formulation allows us to consider a broader range of divergences than have previously been considered. In fact, we argue defining the divergence measure forms an important, subjective part of any statistical analysis, and aim to provide some decision theoretic rational for this selection. We illustrate how targeting alternative divergence measures can impact the conclusions of simple inference tasks, and discuss then how our methods might apply to more complicated, high dimensional models.
Journal Article
Dynamic Bayesian Networks, Elicitation, and Data Embedding for Secure Environments
Serious crime modelling typically needs to be undertaken securely behind a firewall where police knowledge and capabilities remain undisclosed. Data informing an ongoing incident are often sparse; a large proportion of relevant data only come to light after the incident culminates or after police intervene—by which point it is too late to make use of the data to aid real-time decision-making for the incident in question. Much of the data that are available to the police to support real-time decision-making are highly confidential and cannot be shared with academics, and are therefore missing to them. In this paper, we describe the development of a formal protocol where a graphical model is used as a framework for securely translating a base model designed by an academic team to a fully embellished model for use by a police team. We then show, for the first time, how libraries of these models can be built and used for real-time decision support to circumvent the challenges of data missingness seen in such a secure environment through the ability to match ongoing plots to existing models within the library.The parallel development described by this protocol ensures that any sensitive information collected by police and missing to academics remains secured behind a firewall. The protocol nevertheless guides police so that they are able to combine the typically incomplete data streams that are open source with their more sensitive information in a formal and justifiable way. We illustrate the application of this protocol by describing how a new entry—a suspected vehicle attack—can be embedded into such a police library of criminal plots.
Journal Article
Jim Henson's The Storyteller. Fairies
\"Showcases four enchanting tales of fairies and their mystical realms, inspired by the folklore from around the world and told in the spirit of Jim Henson's beloved television series\"--Page four of cover.
Book
Causal Algebras on Chain Event Graphs with Informed Missingness for System Failure
Graph-based causal inference has recently been successfully applied to explore system reliability and to predict failures in order to improve systems. One popular causal analysis following Pearl and Spirtes et al. to study causal relationships embedded in a system is to use a Bayesian network (BN). However, certain causal constructions that are particularly pertinent to the study of reliability are difficult to express fully through a BN. Our recent work demonstrated the flexibility of using a Chain Event Graph (CEG) instead to capture causal reasoning embedded within engineers’ reports. We demonstrated that an event tree rather than a BN could provide an alternative framework that could capture most of the causal concepts needed within this domain. In particular, a causal calculus for a specific type of intervention, called a remedial intervention, was devised on this tree-like graph. In this paper, we extend the use of this framework to show that not only remedial maintenance interventions but also interventions associated with routine maintenance can be well-defined using this alternative class of graphical model. We also show that the complexity in making inference about the potential relationships between causes and failures in a missing data situation in the domain of system reliability can be elegantly addressed using this new methodology. Causal modelling using a CEG is illustrated through examples drawn from the study of reliability of an energy distribution network.
Journal Article
Discovering Women's Voices
Discovering Women's Voices. The Lives of Modern Japanese Silk Mill Workers in Their Own Words offers a vivid account of the lives of modern textile operatives and challenges the assumption describing their history as merely one of exploitation.
eBook