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لو توقعت أن الكتاب عبارة قصة مشوقة لملحمة درامية أو حبكة كاتب خيالية لاستشراف المستقبل، فربما كنت مخطئا، لأن الكتاب هو محاولة أكاديمية لمقارنة توازن القوى في المستقبل بناء على عوامل أربعة سردها الكاتب في شكل أكاديمي عقلاني وممل بعض الشيء، عوامل القوى الأربعة التي سردها الكاتب هي : 1-التحولات الديموغرافية والنمو السكاني، 2-الطلب المتزايد على الموارد الطبيعية والخدمات، 3-العولمة، 4-التبدل المناخي.

Knowing the extent of human influence on the global hydrological cycle is essential for the sustainability of freshwater resources on Earth 1 , 2 . However, a lack of water level observations for the world’s ponds, lakes and reservoirs has limited the quantification of human-managed (reservoir) changes in surface water storage compared to its natural variability 3 . The global storage variability in surface water bodies and the extent to which it is altered by humans therefore remain unknown. Here we show that 61% per cent of the Earth’s seasonal surface water storage variability occurs in human-managed reservoirs. Using measurements from NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeter, which was launched in late 2018, we assemble an extensive global water level dataset that quantifies water level variability for 227,386 water bodies from October 2018 to July 2020. We find that seasonal variability in human-managed reservoirs averages 0.86 metres, whereas natural water bodies vary by only 0.22 metres. Natural variability in surface water storage is greatest in tropical basins, whereas human-managed variability is greatest in the Middle East, southern Africa and the western USA. Strong regional patterns are also found, with human influence driving 67 per cent of surface water storage variability south of 45 degrees north and nearly 100 per cent in certain arid and semi-arid regions. As economic development, population growth and climate change continue to pressure global water resources 4 , our approach provides a useful baseline from which ICESat-2 and future satellite missions will be able to track human modifications to the global hydrologic cycle. Data from the ICESat-2 satellite quantifying the variability of water levels in natural and human-managed water bodies show that a disproportionate majority of global water storage variability occurs in human-managed reservoirs.

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

Rivers provide critical water supply for many human societies and ecosystems, yet global knowledge of their flow rates is poor. We show that useful estimates of absolute river discharge (in cubic meters per second) may be derived solely from satellite images, with no ground-based or a priori information whatsoever. The approach works owing to discovery of a characteristic scaling law uniquely fundamental to natural rivers, here termed a river’s at-many-stations hydraulic geometry. A first demonstration using Landsat Thematic Mapper images over three rivers in the United States, Canada, and China yields absolute discharges agreeing to within 20–30% of traditional in situ gauging station measurements and good tracking of flow changes over time. Within such accuracies, the door appears open for quantifying river resources globally with repeat imaging, both retroactively and henceforth into the future, with strong implications for water resource management, food security, ecosystem studies, flood forecasting, and geopolitics.

Lake methane emissions are commonly upscaled from lake area, with recognition that smaller, non‐inventoried lakes emit more per unit area. There is also growing awareness of the importance of lake aquatic vegetation and potential “double‐counting” with wetlands, but lack of consensus on which is most impactful. Here, we combine high‐resolution data with the comprehensive lake inventory HydroLAKES to rank these three variables based on emissions sensitivity. Including non‐inventoried small lakes <0.1 km2 (+30 [range: 9.0 to 82]% change) is greatest, followed by double‐counting (−20 [−11 to −34]%) and lake aquatic vegetation (+14 [2.7 to 43]%). Significantly, emissions from non‐inventoried lakes contribute far less than the ∼40% previously determined globally through statistical area extrapolation. We produce a first pan‐Arctic estimate of lake aquatic vegetation in 1.37 million km2 of lakes, but after correcting for persistent double‐counting, its net effect is to decrease emissions estimates by 9%. Thus, previous global emissions estimates are likely too high. Plain Language Summary Lakes are the second‐largest natural source of methane, after wetlands. Here, we assess the relative importance of three poorly constrained parameters known to be sources of error in lake methane estimates: lake area distribution, lake aquatic vegetation, and “double‐counting” with wetlands. We use newly available high‐resolution data to estimate the total areas of mapped and unmapped lakes and produce a first estimate of Arctic lake aquatic vegetation. Our Arctic study domain contains 40% of global lake area and has been emphasized in previous lake methane emission studies. Surprisingly, we find that small, unmapped lakes are far less abundant than thought. In particular, very small ponds <0.001 km2 in area are believed to contribute ∼40% of lake methane emissions, but we find they contribute only 3%. Although vegetated zones, known emissions hotspots, cover 8% of Arctic lakes, their effect is more than offset by potential wetland double‐counting still present in estimates. These findings can help reduce uncertainty by comparing the relative effects of lake area, lake aquatic vegetation, and double‐counting and suggest that previous emissions estimates are too high. New maps based on ample high‐resolution data from existing satellites could definitively reveal the area of small lakes at the global scale. Key Points High‐resolution lake maps are scaled to the pan‐Arctic, showing small lakes <0.1 km2 comprise less area (12% of total) than thought Double counting between lake aquatic vegetation and wetlands is still prevalent (11% of lake area) and occurs in lakes of all sizes Previous lake methane emissions estimates are likely biased high, and uncertainty can best be reduced by improving lake map resolution

Recent deployments of CubeSat imagers by companies such as Planet may advance hydrological remote sensing by providing an unprecedented combination of high temporal and high spatial resolution imagery at the global scale. With approximately 170 CubeSats orbiting at full operational capacity, the Planet CubeSat constellation currently offers an average revisit time of <1 day for the Arctic and near-daily revisit time globally at 3 m spatial resolution. Such data have numerous potential applications for water resource monitoring, hydrologic modeling and hydrologic research. Here we evaluate Planet CubeSat imaging capabilities and potential scientific utility for surface water studies in the Yukon Flats, a large sub-Arctic wetland in north central Alaska. We find that surface water areas delineated from Planet imagery have a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of <11% and geolocation accuracy of <10 m as compared with manual delineations from high resolution (0.3–0.5 m) WorldView-2/3 panchromatic satellite imagery. For a 625 km2 subarea of the Yukon Flats, our time series analysis reveals that roughly one quarter of 268 lakes analyzed responded to changes in Yukon River discharge over the period 23 June–1 October 2016, one half steadily contracted, and one quarter remained unchanged. The spatial pattern of observed lake changes is heterogeneous. While connections to Yukon River control the hydrologically connected lakes, the behavior of other lakes is complex, likely driven by a combination of intricate flow paths, underlying geology and permafrost. Limitations of Planet CubeSat imagery include a lack of an automated cloud mask, geolocation inaccuracies, and inconsistent radiometric calibration across multiple platforms. Although these challenges must be addressed before Planet CubeSat imagery can achieve its full potential for large-scale hydrologic research, we conclude that CubeSat imagery offers a powerful new tool for the study and monitoring of dynamic surface water bodies.

Albedo—a primary control on surface melt—varies considerably across the Greenland Ice Sheet yet the specific surface types that comprise its dark zone remain unquantified. Here we use UAV imagery to attribute seven distinct surface types to observed albedo along a 25 km transect dissecting the western, ablating sector of the ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that distributed surface impurities—an admixture of dust, black carbon and pigmented algae—explain 73% of the observed spatial variability in albedo and are responsible for the dark zone itself. Crevassing and supraglacial water also drive albedo reduction but due to their limited extent, explain just 12 and 15% of the observed variability respectively. Cryoconite, concentrated in large holes or fluvial deposits, is the darkest surface type but accounts for <1% of the area and has minimal impact. We propose that the ongoing emergence and dispersal of distributed impurities, amplified by enhanced ablation and biological activity, will drive future expansion of Greenland's dark zone. The surface types that comprise the dark zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet, an area of bare ice with low albedo, are unknown. Here, the authors use UAV imagery to show that, during the melt-season, biologically active surface impurities are responsible for spatial albedo patterns and the dark zone itself.

Climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions with nearly ice-free summer conditions by the mid-21st century. However, how such reductions will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, especially considering a range of climatic scenarios and ship types. We present 21st century projections of technical shipping accessibility for circumpolar and national scales, the international high seas, and three potential navigation routes. Projections of marine access are based on monthly and daily CCSM4 sea ice concentration and thickness simulations for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 under 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing scenarios. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ~54 %, 36 %, and 23 %, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ~95 %, 78 %, and 49 %, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ~120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, and weather, these projections are useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess spatial and temporal ranges of potential Arctic marine operations in the coming decades.

Shorefast sea ice comprises only about 12% of global sea-ice cover, yet it has outsized importance for Arctic societies and ecosystems. Relatively little is known, however, about the dominant drivers of its breakup or how it will respond to climate warming. Here, we use 19 years of near-daily satellite imagery to document the timing of shorefast ice breakup in 28 communities in northern Canada and western Greenland that rely on shorefast ice for transportation and traditional subsistence activities. Breakup timing is strongly correlated with springtime air temperature, but the sensitivity of the relationship varies substantially among communities. We combine these observations with future warming scenarios to estimate an annual reduction of 5–44 days in the length of the springtime shorefast ice season by 2100. Paradoxically, the coldest communities are projected to experience the largest reductions in springtime ice season duration. Our results emphasize the local nature of climate change and its varied impacts on Arctic communities.Shorefast sea ice, which forms along the Arctic shore in winter and spring, is important for local communities and ecosystems. Satellite and climate model data are used to estimate a decrease in shorefast ice season length of 5–44 days by 2100, with the coldest areas experiencing the largest reductions.

While many studies have been conducted regarding wind-driven Ka-band scattering on the ocean and sea surfaces, few have identified the impacts of Ka-band scattering on small inland water bodies, and fewer have identified the influence of wind on coherence over water. These previous studies have been limited in spatial scale, covering only large water bodies >25 km2. The recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is the first Ka-band InSAR satellite designed for mapping water surface elevations and open water areas for rivers as narrow as 100 m and lakes as small as 0.0625 km2. Because measurements of these types are novel, there remains some uncertainty about expected backscatter amplitudes given wind-driven water surface roughness variability. A previous study using the airborne complement to SWOT, AirSWOT, found that low backscatter and low coherence values were indicative of higher errors in the water surface elevation products, recommending minimum thresholds for backscatter and coherence for filtering the data to increase the accuracy of averaged data for lakes and rivers. We determined that the global average wind speed over lakes is 4 m/s, and after comparing AirSWOT backscatter and coherence data with ERA-5 wind speeds, we found that the minimum required speed to retrieve high backscatter and coherence is 3 m/s. We examined 11,072 lakes across Canada and Alaska, with sizes ranging from 350 m2 to 156 km2, significantly smaller than what could be measured with previous Ka-band instruments in orbit. We found that small lakes (0.0625–0.25 km2) have significantly lower backscatter (3–5 dB) and 0.20–0.25 lower coherence than larger lakes (>1 km2). These results suggest that approximately 75% of SWOT observable lake areas around the globe will have consistently high-accuracy water surface elevations, though seasonal wind variability should remain an important consideration. Despite very small lakes presenting lower average backscatter and coherence, this study asserts that SWOT will be able to accurately resolve the water surface elevations and water surface extents for significantly smaller water bodies than have been previously recorded from satellite altimeters. This study additionally lays the foundation for future high-resolution inland water wind speed studies using SWOT data, when the data become available, as the relationships between wind speed and Ka-band backscatter reflect those of traditional scatterometers designed for oceanic studies.