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"Smith, Michael D."
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Location, Location, Location: An Analysis of Profitability of Position in Online Advertising Markets
The authors evaluate the impact of ad placement on revenues and profits generated from sponsored search. Their approach uses data generated through a field experiment for several keywords from an online retailer's ad campaign. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, the authors measure the impact of ad placement on both click-through and conversion rates. They find that while click-through rate decreases with position, conversion rate increases with position and is even higher for more specific keywords. The net effect is that, contrary to the conventional wisdom in the industry, the topmost position is not necessarily the revenueor profit-maximizing position. The authors' results inform the advertising strategies of firms participating in sponsored search auctions and provide insight into consumer behavior in these environments. Specifically, they help correct a significant misunderstanding among advertisers regarding the value of the top position. Furthermore, they reveal potential inefficiencies in current auction mechanisms that search engines use. The authors' results also reveal the information search strategies that consumers use in sponsored search and provide evidence of recency bias for immediate purchases.
Journal Article
Strong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003
Living systems produce more than 90% of Earth's atmospheric methane; the balance is of geochemical origin. On Mars, methane could be a signature of either origin. Using high-dispersion infrared spectrometers at three ground-based telescopes, we measured methane and water vapor simultaneously on Mars over several longitude intervals in northern early and late summer in 2003 and near the vernal equinox in 2006. When present, methane occurred in extended plumes, and the maxima of latitudinal profiles imply that the methane was released from discrete regions. In northern midsummer, the principal plume contained ~19,000 metric tons of methane, and the estimated source strength (greater-than-or-equal0.6 kilogram per second) was comparable to that of the massive hydrocarbon seep at Coal Oil Point in Santa Barbara, California.
Journal Article
Diurnal and Seasonal Mapping of Martian Ices With EMIRS
Condensation and sublimation of ices at the surface of the planet is a key part of both the Martian H2O and CO2 cycles, either from a seasonal or diurnal aspect. While most of the ice is located within the polar caps, surface frost is known to be formed during nighttime down to equatorial latitudes. Here, we use data from the Emirates Mars Infrared Spectrometer onboard the Emirates Mars Mission to monitor the diurnal and seasonal evolution of the ices at the surface of Mars over almost one Martian year. The unique local time coverage provided by the instrument allows us to observe the apparition of equatorial CO2 frost in the second half of the Martian night around the equinoxes, to its sublimation at sunrise. Plain Language Summary The H2O and CO2 ices that form at the surface on Mars play an important role in the exchange between the atmosphere and the surface of the planet. While most of the ice is located within the two polar caps that grew and shrink seasonally, ice is also known to condensate as surface frost during the night and sublimate during the day. This nighttime surface frost deposition can be observed even at equatorial latitudes. In this paper we use data from the Emirates Mars Infrared Spectrometer onboard the Emirates Mars Mission to detect the H2O and CO2 ices at the surface of the planet at all local times over almost one Martian Year, which allows us to monitor both the seasonal and diurnal evolution of the distribution of ices at the surface of Mars. We observe that nighttime CO2 frost forms at equatorial latitudes in the second half of the night to disappear at sunrise around the Martian equinoxes. Key Points We monitor the seasonal growth and retreat of both polar caps over MY 36 We monitor the presence of CO2 ice on the surface of Mars over MY 36, through the season and through all times of day CO2 ice appears at the surface at equatorial latitudes during the second half of the night around the equinoxes
Journal Article
Converting Pirates Without Cannibalizing Purchasers: The Impact of Digital Distribution on Physical Sales and Internet Piracy
The availability of digital channels for media distribution has raised many important questions for marketers, notably, whether digital distribution channels will cannibalize physical sales and whether legitimate digital distribution channels will dissuade consumers from using (illegitimate) digital piracy channels. We address these two questions using the removal of NBC content from Apple's iTunes store in December 2007, and its restoration in September 2008, as natural shocks to the supply of legitimate digital content, and we analyze the impact of this shock on demand through BitTorrent piracy channels and the Amazon.com DVD store.
To do this we collected two large data sets from Mininova.com and Amazon.com, documenting levels of piracy and DVD sales for both NBC and other major networks' content around these events. We analyze these data in a difference-in-difference model and find that NBC's decision to remove its content from iTunes in December 2007 is causally associated with an 11.4% increase in the demand for NBC's pirated content. This is roughly equivalent to an increase of 48,000 downloads a day for NBC's content and is approximately twice as large as the total legal purchases on iTunes for the same content in the period preceding the removal. We also find evidence of a smaller, and statistically insignificant, decrease in piracy for the same content when it was restored to the iTunes store in September 2008. Finally, we see no change in demand for NBC's DVD content at Amazon.com associated with NBC's closing or reopening of its digital distribution channel on iTunes.
Journal Article
The Effect of Graduated Response Anti-Piracy Laws on Music Sales: Evidence from an Event Study in France
Despite the problem that filesharing poses to the creative industries, there is little research on the effectiveness of governmental anti-piracy policies. This study analyzes how the HADOPI graduated response law in France affected digital music sales. zo a control group of European countries. We find that increased consumer awareness of HADOPI caused French iTunes music sales to increase by 22-25%. The observed sales increase is larger in high piracy genres than low piracy ones, strengthening the causal interpretation of our results.
Journal Article
Consumer Surplus in the Digital Economy: Estimating the Value of Increased Product Variety at Online Booksellers
We present a framework and empirical estimates that quantify the economic impact of increased product variety made available through electronic markets. While efficiency gains from increased competition significantly enhance consumer surplus, for instance, by leading to lower average selling prices, our present research shows that increased product variety made available through electronic markets can be a significantly larger source of consumer surplus gains.
One reason for increased product variety on the Internet is the ability of online retailers to catalog, recommend, and provide a large number of products for sale. For example, the number of book titles available at Amazon.com is more than 23 times larger than the number of books on the shelves of a typical Barnes & Noble superstore, and 57 times greater than the number of books stocked in a typical large independent bookstore.
Our analysis indicates that the increased product variety of online bookstores enhanced consumer welfare by $731 million to $1.03 billion in the year 2000, which is between 7 and 10 times as large as the consumer welfare gain from increased competition and lower prices in this market. There may also be large welfare gains in other SKU-intensive consumer goods such as music, movies, consumer electronics, and computer software and hardware.
Journal Article
Frictionless Commerce? A Comparison of Internet and Conventional Retailers
There have been many claims that the Internet represents a new nearly \"frictionless market.\" Our research empirically analyzes the characteristics of the Internet as a channel for two categories of homogeneous products—books and CDs. Using a data set of over 8,500 price observations collected over a period of 15 months, we compare pricing behavior at 41 Internet and conventional retail outlets.
We find that prices on the Internet are 9–16% lower than prices in conventional outlets, depending on whether taxes, shipping, and shopping costs are included in the price. Additionally, we find that Internet retailers' price adjustments over time are up to 100 times smaller than conventional retailers' price adjustments—presumably reflecting lower menu costs in Internet channels. We also find that levels of price dispersion depend importantly on the measures employed. When we compare the prices posted by different Internet retailers we find substantial dispersion. Internet retailer prices differ by an average of 33% for books and 25% for CDs. However, when we weight these prices by proxies for market share, we find dispersion is lower in Internet channels than in conventional channels, reflecting the dominance of certain heavily branded retailers.
We conclude that while there is lower friction in many dimensions of Internet competition, branding, awareness, and trust remain important sources of heterogeneity among Internet retailers.
Journal Article
Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer observations of water vapor and carbon monoxide
The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft began taking observations in September 2006 and has now collected more than a full Martian year of data. Retrievals performed using the near‐infrared spectra obtained by CRISM are used to characterize the seasonal and spatial variation of the column abundance of water vapor and the column‐averaged mixing ratio of carbon monoxide. CRISM retrievals show nominal behavior in water vapor during northern hemisphere spring and summer with maximum abundance reaching 50 precipitable micrometers. Water vapor abundance during the southern hemisphere spring and summer appears significantly reduced compared to observations by other instruments taken during previous years. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be 700 ppm, but with strong seasonal variations at high latitudes. The summertime near‐polar carbon monoxide mixing ratio falls to 200 ppm in the south and 400 ppm in the north as carbon dioxide sublimates from the seasonal polar ice caps and dilutes noncondensable species including carbon monoxide. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure.
Journal Article
Consumer Behavior in the Online Classroom
Video is one of the fastest growing online services offered to consumers. The rapid growth of online video consumption brings new opportunities for marketing executives and researchers to analyze consumer behavior. However, video also introduces new challenges. Specifically, analyzing unstructured video data presents formidable methodological challenges that limit the use of multimedia data to generate marketing insights. To address this challenge, the authors propose a novel video feature framework based on machine learning and computer vision techniques, which helps marketers predict and understand the consumption of online video from a content-based perspective. The authors apply this framework to two unique data sets: one provided by MasterClass, consisting of 771 online videos and more than 2.6 million viewing records from 225,580 consumers, and another from Crash Course, consisting of 1,127 videos focusing on more traditional education disciplines. The analyses show that the frame-work proposed in this article can be used to accurately predict both individual-level consumer behavior and aggregate video popularity in these two very different contexts. The authors discuss how their findings and methods can be used to advance management and marketing research with unstructured video data in other contexts such as video marketing and entertainment analytics.
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