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40 result(s) for "Sole, Andrew J."
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Rapid accelerations of Antarctic Peninsula outlet glaciers driven by surface melt
Atmospheric warming is increasing surface melting across the Antarctic Peninsula, with unknown impacts upon glacier dynamics at the ice-bed interface. Using high-resolution satellite-derived ice velocity data, optical satellite imagery and regional climate modelling, we show that drainage of surface meltwater to the bed of outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula occurs and triggers rapid ice flow accelerations (up to 100% greater than the annual mean). This provides a mechanism for this sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to respond rapidly to atmospheric warming. We infer that delivery of water to the bed transiently increases basal water pressure, enhancing basal motion, but efficient evacuation subsequently reduces water pressure causing ice deceleration. Currently, melt events are sporadic, so efficient subglacial drainage cannot be maintained, resulting in multiple short-lived (<6 day) ice flow perturbations. Future increases in meltwater could induce a shift to a glacier dynamic regime characterised by seasonal-scale hydrologically-driven ice flow variations. Surface meltwater is known to influence the dynamics of some glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet. Here, the authors have identified the first examples of the drainage of surface meltwater to the bed of outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula that trigger large and rapid accelerations of ice flow.
Minimal Impact of Late‐Season Melt Events on Greenland Ice Sheet Annual Motion
Extreme melt and rainfall events can induce temporary acceleration of Greenland Ice Sheet motion, leading to increased advection of ice to lower elevations where melt rates are higher. In a warmer climate, these events are likely to become more frequent. In September 2022, seasonally unprecedented air temperatures caused multiple melt events over the Greenland Ice Sheet, generating the highest melt rates of the year. The scale and timing of the largest event overwhelmed the subglacial drainage system, enhancing basal sliding and increasing ice velocities by up to ∼240% relative to pre‐event velocities. However, ice motion returned rapidly to pre‐event levels, and the speed‐ups caused a regional increase in annual ice discharge of only ∼2% compared to when the effects of the speed‐ups were excluded. Therefore, although late melt‐season events are forecast to become more frequent and drive significant runoff, their impact on net mass loss via ice discharge is minimal. Plain Language Summary Extreme melt and rainfall events can cause the flow of ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet to accelerate, potentially causing more ice to move to lower elevations, where temperatures are warmer and melt rates are higher. In September 2022, there were multiple unprecedented melt events. Their intensity caused some glaciers on the ice sheet to speed up by 240% relative to pre‐event speeds. Despite these accelerations, our analyses show that these events had only a minimal long‐term impact on how much ice was moved to lower elevations due to the short duration of the speed‐ups. As a result, while these melt‐induced speed‐ups are expected to become more common in a warmer climate, their effect on the amount of ice transported toward the ice margins is minimal. Key Points September 2022 saw multiple melt events over the west Greenland Ice Sheet, with the largest daily runoff of any late melt‐season since 1950 Large quantities of surface‐generated meltwater overwhelmed the subglacial drainage system causing brief increases in ice velocity Late‐season runoff‐induced speed‐ups have only minimal impact on the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet via dynamical processes
Sub-regional variability in the influence of ice-contact lakes on Himalayan glaciers
Ice-contact lakes modify glacier geometry and dynamics by shifting the majority of mass loss from the ice surface to the terminus. Lake-terminating glaciers are known to experience greater thinning rates and higher velocities than land-terminating glaciers, but the controls on variability in surface elevation change and ice flow between lake-terminating glaciers in different regions remain poorly explored. We combined existing datasets of glacier velocity, surface elevation change and glacial lake area to characterise the evolution of 352 lake-terminating and land-terminating glaciers within three Himalayan sub-regions between 2000 and 2019. These analyses show that the influence of ice-contact lakes propagates up-glacier across only the lowermost 30% of the hypsometric distribution, even where lakes are well established. We find that ice-contact lakes only affect glacier behaviour when the lakes reach an advanced evolutionary stage; most clearly manifested in the Eastern Himalaya by statistically robust differences in glacier-wide surface elevation change between lake-terminating (–0.68 ± 0.05 m a–1) and land-terminating (–0.54 ± 0.04 m a–1) glaciers. These differences are driven by the presence of a greater number of well-developed ice-contact lakes in the Eastern Himalaya compared to in the Western and Central Himalaya, resulting from greater mass loss rates to date.
Ice front positions for Greenland glaciers (2002–2021): a spatially extensive seasonal record and benchmark dataset for algorithm validation
Glacier terminus (ice-front) positions are key indicators of glacier dynamic variability and ice–ocean–atmosphere interactions and provide essential time-varying boundary conditions for ice-sheet modelling. High-precision, spatially extensive records are therefore critical for quantifying terminus recession, improving estimates of dynamic mass loss, and supporting the development and validation of automated front-detection algorithms. However, existing manually delineated datasets are largely restricted to marine-terminating glaciers and exhibit heterogeneous spatial coverage, temporal sampling, and delineation criteria, which limits ice-sheet-scale representativeness and propagates into consolidated and automated products that depend on them for training and evaluation. Here we present Greenland Terminus Position Dataset (GrTPD), an independent and internally consistent dataset of ice front positions in Greenland, providing spatially extensive, seasonally targeted coverage (at least twice per year) across marine-, land-, and lake-terminating glaciers. The dataset comprises 19 171 terminus delineations for 465 glaciers spanning 2002–2021, derived from multi-source satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel-1/2, MODIS, ENVISAT, ASTER, and ERS). Delineations were produced using standardized workflows implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE), ENVI, ArcGIS and QGIS. Each record is accompanied by metadata describing acquisition date, satellite, method, glacier identifier, official name, glacier type by terminus and origin, vertex count, and ice front length. Positional accuracy was evaluated using average minimum distance (AMD) comparisons against the integrated manually delineated TermPicks dataset and the automated AutoTerm product for overlapping glaciers. Mean AMD of 86 m relative to TermPicks and 115 m relative to AutoTerm indicates high geometric fidelity and positional consistency. Across spatial aggregates and time series, GrTPD shows closer agreement with TermPicks than with AutoTerm, consistent with the greater sensitivity of automated delineations to image quality, low-contrast ice–ocean mélange conditions, and heterogeneous terminus geometries. By extending coverage beyond marine-terminating glaciers, GrTPD enables a more comprehensive assessment of Greenland glacier terminus variability and provides a high-quality benchmark for validating and intercomparing automated delineation products. The dataset is publicly available from Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19181770 (Xi et al., 2026).
Greenland ice sheet motion insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing
Changes to the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet can be forced by various mechanisms including surface-melt–induced ice acceleration and oceanic forcing of marine-terminating glaciers. We use observations of ice motion to examine the surface melt–induced dynamic response of a land-terminating outlet glacier in southwest Greenland to the exceptional melting observed in 2012. During summer, meltwater generated on the Greenland ice sheet surface accesses the ice sheet bed, lubricating basal motion and resulting in periods of faster ice flow. However, the net impact of varying meltwater volumes upon seasonal and annual ice flow, and thus sea level rise, remains unclear. We show that two extreme melt events (98.6% of the Greenland ice sheet surface experienced melting on July 12, the most significant melt event since 1889, and 79.2% on July 29) and summer ice sheet runoff ∼3.9σ above the 1958–2011 mean resulted in enhanced summer ice motion relative to the average melt year of 2009. However, despite record summer melting, subsequent reduced winter ice motion resulted in 6% less net annual ice motion in 2012 than in 2009. Our findings suggest that surface melt–induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios.
Seasonal evolution of the supraglacial drainage network at Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, between 2016 and 2020
Supraglacial rivers and lakes are important for the routing and storage of surface meltwater during the summer melt season across the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) but remain poorly mapped and quantified across the northern part of the ice sheet, which is rapidly losing mass. Here we produce, for the first time, a high-resolution record of the supraglacial drainage network (including both rivers and lakes) and its seasonal behaviour at Humboldt Glacier, a wide-outlet glacier draining a large melt-prone hydrologic catchment (13 488 km2), spanning the period 2016 to 2020 using 10 m spatial resolution Sentinel-2 imagery. Our results reveal a perennially extensive yet interannually variable supraglacial network extending from an elevation of 200 m a.s.l. to a maximum of ∼ 1440 m a.s.l. recorded in 2020, with limited development of the network observed in the low-melt years of 2017 and 2018. The supraglacial drainage network is shown to cover an area ranging between 966 km2 (2018) and 1566 km2 (2019) at its maximum seasonal extent, with spatial coverage of up to 2685 km2 recorded during the early phases of the melt season when a slush zone is most prominent. Up-glacier expansion and the development of an efficient supraglacial drainage network as surface runoff increases and the snowline retreats is clearly visible. Preconditioning of the ice surface following a high-melt year is also observed, with an extreme and long-lasting 2019 melt season and over-winter persistence of liquid lakes, followed by low snow accumulation the following spring, culminating in earlier widespread exposure of the supraglacial drainage network in 2020 compared to other years. This preconditioning is predicted to become more common with persistent warmer years into the future. Overall, this study provides evidence of a persistent, yet dynamic, supraglacial drainage network at this prominent northern GrIS outlet glacier and advances our understanding of such hydrologic processes, particularly under ongoing climatic warming and enhanced runoff.
Automated mapping of the seasonal evolution of surface meltwater and its links to climate on the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica
Surface meltwater is widespread around the Antarctic Ice Sheet margin and has the potential to influence ice shelf stability, ice flow and ice–albedo feedbacks. Our understanding of the seasonal and multi-year evolution of Antarctic surface meltwater is limited. Attempts to generate robust meltwater cover time series have largely been constrained by computational expense or limited ice surface visibility associated with mapping from optical satellite imagery. Here, we add a novel method for calculating visibility metrics to an existing meltwater detection method within Google Earth Engine. This enables us to quantify uncertainty induced by cloud cover and variable image data coverage, allowing time series of surface meltwater area to be automatically generated over large spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate our method on the Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica, analysing 4164 Landsat 7 and 8 optical images between 2005 and 2020. Results show high interannual variability in surface meltwater cover, with mapped cumulative lake area totals ranging from 384 to 3898 km2 per melt season. By incorporating image visibility assessments, however, we estimate that cumulative total lake areas are on average 42 % higher than minimum mapped values. We show that modelled melt predictions from a regional climate model provide a good indication of lake cover in the Amery region and that annual lake coverage is typically highest in years with a negative austral summer SAM index. Our results demonstrate that our method could be scaled up to generate a multi-year time series record of surface water extent from optical imagery at a continent-wide scale.
Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise
We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.
Diverse supraglacial drainage patterns on the Devon ice Cap, Arctic Canada
The Devon Ice Cap (DIC) is one of the largest ice masses in the Canadian Arctic. Each summer, extensive supraglacial river networks develop on the DIC surface and route large volumes of meltwater from ice caps to the ocean. Mapping their extent and understanding their temporal evolution are important for validating runoff routing and melt volumes predicted by regional climate models (RCMs). We use 10 m Sentinel-2 images captured on 28 July and 10/11 August 2016 to map supraglacial rivers across the entire DIC (12,100 km 2 ). Both dendritic and parallel supraglacial drainage patterns are found, with a total length of 44,941 km and a mean drainage density (D d ) of 3.71 km −1 . As the melt season progresses, D d increases and supraglacial rivers form at progressively higher elevations. There is a positive correlation between RCM-derived surface runoff and satellite-mapped D d , suggesting that supraglacial drainage density is primarily controlled by surface runoff.