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The number of visits to hospital emergency departments (EDs) in England has increased by 20% since 2007-08, placing unsustainable pressure on the National Health Service (NHS). Some patients attend EDs because they are unable to access primary care services. This study examined the association between access to primary care and ED visits in England. A cross-sectional, population-based analysis of patients registered with 7,856 general practices in England was conducted, for the time period April 2010 to March 2011. The outcome measure was the number of self-referred discharged ED visits by the registered population of a general practice. The predictor variables were measures of patient-reported access to general practice services; these were entered into a negative binomial regression model with variables to control for the characteristics of patient populations, supply of general practitioners and travel times to health services. MAIN RESULT AND CONCLUSION: General practices providing more timely access to primary care had fewer self-referred discharged ED visits per registered patient (for the most accessible quintile of practices, RR = 0.898; P<0.001). Policy makers should consider improving timely access to primary care when developing plans to reduce ED utilisation.

Background Rehabilitation programmes are used to improve hip fracture outcomes. There is little published trial clinical trial or population-based data on the effects of the type or provider of rehabilitation treatments on hip fracture outcomes. We evaluated the associations of rehabilitation interventions with post-operative hip fracture outcomes. Methods Cross-sectional (2013–2015) analysis of data from the English National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) from all 191 English hospitals treating hip fractures. Of 62,844 NHFD patients, we included 17,708 patients with rehabilitation treatment and 30-day mobility data, and 34,142 patients with rehabilitation treatment and discharge destination data. The intervention was early mobilisation rehabilitation treatments delivered by a physiotherapist (PT, physical therapist in North America) or other clinical staff as identifiable in NHFD. We used ordinal logistic and propensity scoring regression models to adjust for confounding variables including age, sex, pre-fracture mobility, operative delay, and cognitive function and peri-operative risk scores. Results In both the adjusted multivariate and propensity-weighted analyses, mobilisation on the day or the day following surgery is associated with better mobility function 30 days after discharge. However patients mobilised by a PT did not have better mobility compared to mobilisation by other professionals. Patients who received a PT assessment were not protected from poorer mobility 30 days after discharge, compared with those who did not receive an assessment. The discharge destination outcome is also better in mobilised than unmobilised patients, whether done by a PT or another health professional, and the difference persists, slightly attenuated, after propensity weighting. Conclusions In addition to the type of health professional initiating mobilisation, data on rehabilitation treatment activity and post-operative gait speed is needed to determine optimum rehabilitation dosage and functional outcome. After adjustment patients mobilised by non-PTs did as well as patients mobilised by PTs, suggesting that PTs’ current roles in very early rehabilitation should be reconsidered, with a view to redeploying them to more specialised later rehabilitation activity.

Background The epidemiologic study of comorbidities of an index health problem represents a methodological challenge. This study cross-sectionally describes and analyzes the comorbidities associated with dementia in older patients and reviews the existing similarities and differences between identified comorbid diseases using the statistical methods most frequently applied in current research. Methods Cross-sectional study of 72,815 patients over 64 seen in 19 Spanish primary care centers during 2008. Chronic diseases were extracted from electronic health records and grouped into Expanded Diagnostic Clusters®. Three different statistical methods were applied (i.e., analysis of prevalence data, multiple regression and factor analysis), stratifying by sex. Results The two most frequent comorbidities both for men and women with dementia were hypertension and diabetes. Yet, logistic regression and factor analysis demonstrated that the comorbidities significantly associated with dementia were Parkinson’s disease, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, anemia, cardiac arrhythmia, chronic skin ulcers, osteoporosis, thyroid disease, retinal disorders, prostatic hypertrophy, insomnia and anxiety and neurosis. Conclusions The analysis of the comorbidities associated with an index disease (e.g., dementia) must not be exclusively based on prevalence rates, but rather on methodologies that allow the discovery of non-random associations between diseases. A deep and reliable knowledge about how different diseases are grouped and associated around an index disease such as dementia may orient future longitudinal studies aimed at unraveling causal associations.

Background Our aims were to evaluate critically the evidence from systematic reviews as well as narrative reviews of the effects of melatonin (MLT) on health and to identify the potential mechanisms of action involved. Methods An umbrella review of the evidence across systematic reviews and narrative reviews of endogenous and exogenous (supplementation) MLT was undertaken. The Oxman checklist for assessing the methodological quality of the included systematic reviews was utilised. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL, PsycINFO and CINAHL. In addition, reference lists were screened. We included reviews of the effects of MLT on any type of health-related outcome measure. Results Altogether, 195 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Most were of low methodological quality (mean -4.5, standard deviation 6.7). Of those, 164 did not pool the data and were synthesised narratively (qualitatively) whereas the remaining 31 used meta-analytic techniques and were synthesised quantitatively. Seven meta-analyses were significant with P values less than 0.001 under the random-effects model. These pertained to sleep latency, pre-operative anxiety, prevention of agitation and risk of breast cancer. Conclusions There is an abundance of reviews evaluating the effects of exogenous and endogenous MLT on health. In general, MLT has been shown to be associated with a wide variety of health outcomes in clinically and methodologically heterogeneous populations. Many reviews stressed the need for more high-quality randomised clinical trials to reduce the existing uncertainties.

Following publication of the original article [1], the author reported an error in the Title. The original article has been corrected.Following publication of the original article [1], the author reported an error in the Title. The original article has been corrected.

Background Like many other countries, Singapore needs to support its ageing population by attracting more doctors into general practice (GP) and family medicine (FM). To achieve this requires a better understanding of what attracts or deters medical students. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among medical students in Singapore. Methods An online survey was distributed to students from all three medical schools to understand their likelihood of choosing primary care careers, what they valued in their careers, their attitude towards different aspects of general practice and family medicine relative to other medical fields, and the positive and negative perceptions of primary care held by themselves, their lecturers, and clinical mentors. They were able to elaborate the negativity encountered in the open-ended questions. Quantitative data was analyzed with descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, and linear regression; qualitative data was analyzed thematically. Results The survey was completed by 391 students. Slightly over half indicated a likelihood of choosing a career in primary care. For their own careers, the students valued job satisfaction and career development opportunities the most. They perceived careers in primary care as being most likely to offer reasonable hours and close patient relationships, but least likely to offer career advancement potential relative to other medical fields. Their likelihood of choosing primary care careers was significantly predicted by what they value in their own career and their attitudes toward GP/FM relative to other medical fields, but not by the perceptions of GP/FM by others. Free-text responses illustrated how students encounter derogatory comments about GP/FM: the work being “mundane and repetitive”, the careers non-competitive, and the doctors poor in clinical competence. Conclusion While the shortage of primary care doctors is a global issue, our findings highlight the value of situating inquiries in localized contexts. Medical curriculum should emphasize the critical role of primary care in the healthcare system and primary care doctors should be given due recognition to build a strong and motivated primary care workforce to serve the future healthcare needs of the population.

On 4 January, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) updated covid-19 isolation and quarantine recommendations with shorter isolation (for asymptomatic and mildly ill people) and quarantine periods of five days to focus on the period when a person is most infectious, followed by continued masking for an additional five days.1 This policy was based on a modelling study from the United Kingdom by Bays et al which showed that after the fifth day after a positive test, an estimated 31% of people remained infectious.2 All the authors of this modelling study, which was published as a pre-print on 24 December 2021, work for UK Health Security Agency (UK HSA). A 2020 (so pre-Delta) rapid scoping review and analysis from Ireland of available evidence for serial testing asymptomatic and symptomatic cases showed substantial variation in the estimates, and how the infectious period was inferred.7 The only currently available study of the omicron variant is a small Japanese preprint which showed that people with the omicron variant of covid-19 shed the virus for longer after symptoms emerge.8 The number and percentage of omicron variant virus isolation positive samples as 7/17 (41.2%) after three to six days and 2/18 (11.1%) at seven to nine days.9 The change in isolation policy for people with covid-19 in England is a pragmatic step that will allow people to return to productive work, education, and social activities more quickly. [...]non-pharmaceutical interventions should be considered—rapidly—by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, which would ensure scientific rigour and cost-effectiveness.

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of premature mortality and a major contributor of health inequalities in England. Compared to more affluent and white counterparts, deprived people and ethnic minorities tend to die younger due to preventable CVD associated with lifestyle. In addition, deprived, ethnic minorities and younger people are less likely to be served by CVD prevention services. This study assessed the effectiveness of community-based outreach providers in delivering England’s National Health Services (NHS) Health Check programme, a CVD preventive programme to under-served groups. Methods Between January 2008 and October 2013, community outreach providers delivered a preventive CVD programme to 50,573 individuals, in their local communities, in a single consultation without prescheduled appointments. Community outreach providers operated on evenings and weekends as well as during regular business hours in venues accessible to the general public. After exclusion criteria, we analysed and compared socio-demographic data of 43,177 Health Check attendees with the general population across 38 local authorities (LAs). We assessed variation between local authorities in terms of age, sex, deprivation and ethnicity structures using two sample t-tests and within local authority variation in terms of ethnicity and deprivation using Chi squared tests and two sample t-tests respectively. Results Using Index of Multiple Deprivation, the mean deprivation score of the population reached by community outreach providers was 6.01 higher ( p  < 0.05) than the general population. Screened populations in 29 of 38 LAs were significantly more deprived ( p  < 0.05). No statistically significant difference among ethnic minority groups was observed between LAs. Nonetheless some LAs – namely Leicester, Thurrock, Sutton, South Tyneside, Portsmouth and Gateshead were very successful in recruiting ethnic minority groups. The mean proportion of men screened was 11.39% lower ( p  < 0.001) and mean proportion of 40–49 and 50–59 year olds was 9.98% and 3.58% higher ( p  < 0.0001 and p  < 0.01 respectively) than the general population across 38 LAs. Conclusions Community-based outreach providers effectively reach under-served groups by delivering preventive CVD services to younger, more deprived populations, and a representative proportion of ethnic minority groups. If the programme is successful in motivating the under-served groups to improve lifestyle, it may reduce health inequalities therein.

Background To support its ageing population and the increasing need for chronic care in the community, Singapore needs to boost the number of doctors in its primary care workforce. To better understand how to improve doctor retention and build a more robust primary care system, we conducted a cross-sectional survey with doctors in general practice and family medicine to explore their career satisfaction, their career plans, factors related to their plans to leave, and their view on retaining GPs in primary care. Methods An anonymous online survey was distributed to general practitioners working in the public and private sectors. The survey contained questions on career satisfaction, career plans in the next 5 years, and factors important for retaining doctors in primary care. In addition, there were open-ended questions for respondents to elaborate on retention initiatives and other factors that may improve engagement among primary care doctors. Quantitative data was analyzed with descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, χ 2 tests, t-tests, and Pearson’s correlations; qualitative data was analyzed thematically. Results The survey was attempted by 355 general practitioners and completed in full by 303. The respondents were most satisfied with rapport with patients and their current professional role; they were least satisfied with the amount of paperwork and the status of general practice in society . In terms of their career plans in the next 5 years, 49/341 (14.4%) of the respondents plan to leave general practice permanently, 43/341 (12.6%) plan to take a career break, and 175/341 (51.3%) plan to reduce their clinical hours. Higher remuneration, recognizing general practice and family medicine as a medical specialty, and reducing the litigious pressures on medical practice were rated as the most important factors for retaining primary care. Free-text responses also revealed a growing dissatisfaction with the Third-Party Administrators that manage insurance arrangements. Conclusion While the proportion of doctors who intend to leave is smaller than that reported in overseas studies, our findings highlight an urgent need for targeted interventions to engage and retain primary care doctors. Increasing recognition and support for general practitioners and their professional practice may contribute to strengthening community care for the ageing population.