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Distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) curves are widely used in oncology. They are classically analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier estimator or agnostic statistical models from survival analysis. Here we report on a method to extract more information from DMFS curves using a mathematical model of primary tumor growth and metastatic dissemination. The model depends on two parameters, α and μ , respectively quantifying tumor growth and dissemination. We assumed these to be lognormally distributed in a patient population. We propose a method for identification of the parameters of these distributions based on least-squares minimization between the data and the simulated survival curve. We studied the practical identifiability of these parameters and found that including the percentage of patients with metastasis at diagnosis was critical to ensure robust estimation. We also studied the impact and identifiability of covariates and their coefficients in α and μ , either categorical or continuous, including various functional forms for the latter (threshold, linear or a combination of both). We found that both the functional form and the coefficients could be determined from DMFS curves. We then applied our model to a clinical dataset of metastatic relapse from kidney cancer with individual data of 105 patients. We show that the model was able to describe the data and illustrate our method to disentangle the impact of three covariates on DMFS: a categorical one (Führman grade) and two continuous ones (gene expressions of the macrophage mannose receptor 1 (MMR) and the G Protein-Coupled Receptor Class C Group 5 Member A (GPRC5a) gene). We found that all had an influence in metastasis dissemination ( μ ), but not on growth ( α ).

Background Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) is difficult to treat with 5-year survival rate of 10% in metastatic patients. Main reasons of therapy failure are lack of validated biomarkers and scarce knowledge of the biological processes occurring during RCC progression. Thus, the investigation of mechanisms regulating RCC progression is fundamental to improve RCC therapy. Methods In order to identify molecular markers and gene processes involved in the steps of RCC progression, we generated several cell lines of higher aggressiveness by serially passaging mouse renal cancer RENCA cells in mice and, concomitantly, performed functional genomics analysis of the cells. Multiple cell lines depicting the major steps of tumor progression (including primary tumor growth, survival in the blood circulation and metastatic spread) were generated and analyzed by large-scale transcriptome, genome and methylome analyses. Furthermore, we performed clinical correlations of our datasets. Finally we conducted a computational analysis for predicting the time to relapse based on our molecular data. Results Through in vivo passaging, RENCA cells showed increased aggressiveness by reducing mice survival, enhancing primary tumor growth and lung metastases formation. In addition, transcriptome and methylome analyses showed distinct clustering of the cell lines without genomic variation. Distinct signatures of tumor aggressiveness were revealed and validated in different patient cohorts. In particular, we identified SAA2 and CFB as soluble prognostic and predictive biomarkers of the therapeutic response. Machine learning and mathematical modeling confirmed the importance of CFB and SAA2 together, which had the highest impact on distant metastasis-free survival. From these data sets, a computational model predicting tumor progression and relapse was developed and validated. These results are of great translational significance. Conclusion A combination of experimental and mathematical modeling was able to generate meaningful data for the prediction of the clinical evolution of RCC.

The biology of the metastatic colonization process remains a poorly understood phenomenon. To improve our knowledge of its dynamics, we conducted a modelling study based on multi-modal data from an orthotopic murine experimental system of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. The standard theory of metastatic colonization usually assumes that secondary tumours, once established at a distant site, grow independently from each other and from the primary tumour. Using a mathematical model that translates this assumption into equations, we challenged this theory against our data that included: 1) dynamics of primary tumour cells in the kidney and metastatic cells in the lungs, retrieved by green fluorescent protein tracking, and 2) magnetic resonance images (MRI) informing on the number and size of macroscopic lesions. Critically, when calibrated on the growth of the primary tumour and total metastatic burden, the predicted theoretical size distributions were not in agreement with the MRI observations. Moreover, tumour expansion only based on proliferation was not able to explain the volume increase of the metastatic lesions. These findings strongly suggested rejection of the standard theory, demonstrating that the time development of the size distribution of metastases could not be explained by independent growth of metastatic foci. This led us to investigate the effect of spatial interactions between merging metastatic tumours on the dynamics of the global metastatic burden. We derived a mathematical model of spatial tumour growth, confronted it with experimental data of single metastatic tumour growth, and used it to provide insights on the dynamics of multiple tumours growing in close vicinity. Together, our results have implications for theories of the metastatic process and suggest that global dynamics of metastasis development is dependent on spatial interactions between metastatic lesions.

Polo-like kinase 1 (Plk1) expression is inversely correlated with survival advantages in many cancers. However, molecular mechanisms that underlie Plk1 expression are poorly understood. Here, we uncover a hypoxia-regulated mechanism of Plk1-mediated cancer metastasis and drug resistance. We demonstrated that a HIF-2-dependent regulatory pathway drives Plk1 expression in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). Mechanistically, HIF-2 transcriptionally targets the hypoxia response element of the Plk1 promoter. In ccRCC patients, high expression of Plk1 was correlated to poor disease-free survival and overall survival. Loss-of-function of Plk1 in vivo markedly attenuated ccRCC growth and metastasis. High Plk1 expression conferred a resistant phenotype of ccRCC to targeted therapeutics such as sunitinib, in vitro, in vivo, and in metastatic ccRCC patients. Importantly, high Plk1 expression was defined in a subpopulation of ccRCC patients that are refractory to current therapies. Hence, we propose a therapeutic paradigm for improving outcomes of ccRCC patients.Dufies et al. find high Plk1 expression levels in aggressive clear cell renal cell carcinoma and discover that Plk1 is transcriptionally upregulated in a manner dependent on HIF-2. They also find that high Plk1 expression is correlated to a poor prognosis and resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitor against VEGF receptor, suggesting a critical role for hypoxia/HIF-2-induced Plk1 in disease progression.

The biology of the metastatic colonization process remains a poorly understood phenomenon. To improve our knowledge of its dynamics, we conducted a modelling study based on multi-modal data from an orthotopic murine experimental system of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. The standard theory of metastatic colonization usually assumes that secondary tumours, once established at a distant site, grow independently from each other and from the primary tumour. Using a mathematical model that translates this assumption into equations, we challenged this theory against our data that included: 1) dynamics of primary tumour cells in the kidney and metastatic cells in the lungs, retrieved by green fluorescent protein tracking, and 2) magnetic resonance images (MRI) informing on the number and size of macroscopic lesions. Critically, when calibrated on the growth of the primary tumour and total metastatic burden, the predicted theoretical size distributions were not in agreement with the MRI observations. Moreover, tumour expansion only based on proliferation was not able to explain the volume increase of the metastatic lesions. These findings strongly suggested rejection of the standard theory, demonstrating that the time development of the size distribution of metastases could not be explained by independent growth of metastatic foci. This led us to investigate the effect of spatial interactions between merging metastatic tumours on the dynamics of the global metastatic burden. We derived a mathematical model of spatial tumour growth, confronted it with experimental data of single metastatic tumour growth, and used it to provide insights on the dynamics of multiple tumours growing in close vicinity. Together, our results have implications for theories of the metastatic process and suggest that global dynamics of metastasis development is dependent on spatial interactions between metastatic lesions.

The biology of the metastatic colonization process remains a poorly understood phenomenon. To improve our knowledge of its dynamics, we conducted a modelling study based on multi-modal data from an orthotopic murine experimental system of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. The standard theory of metastatic colonization usually assumes that secondary tumours, once established at a distant site, grow independently from each other and from the primary tumour. Using a mathematical model that translates this assumption into equations, we challenged this theory against our data that included: 1) dynamics of primary tumour cells in the kidney and metastatic cells in the lungs, retrieved by green fluorescent protein tracking, and 2) magnetic resonance images (MRI) informing on the number and size of macroscopic lesions. Critically, when calibrated on the growth of the primary tumour and total metastatic burden, the predicted theoretical size distributions were not in agreement with the MRI observations. Moreover, tumour expansion only based on proliferation was not able to explain the volume increase of the metastatic lesions. These findings strongly suggested rejection of the standard theory, demonstrating that the time development of the size distribution of metastases could not be explained by independent growth of metastatic foci. This led us to investigate the effect of spatial interactions between merging metastatic tumours on the dynamics of the global metastatic burden. We derived a mathematical model of spatial tumour growth, confronted it with experimental data of single metastatic tumour growth, and used it to provide insights on the dynamics of multiple tumours growing in close vicinity. Together, our results have implications for theories of the metastatic process and suggest that global dynamics of metastasis development is dependent on spatial interactions between metastatic lesions.

In situ hybridization visualizes RNA in cells, but image analysis is complex. We present a protocol based on open-source software for automated high-content multiplex fluorescence in situ transcriptomics analysis. Steps include nuclei segmentation with a Fiji macro and quantification of up to 14 mRNA probes per image. We describe procedures for storing raw data, quality control images and the use of a Python app to summarize all the results in one spreadsheet detailing the number of single or co-positive cells.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Footnotes* A more detailed protocol description has been added in response to the reviewers comments. The manuscript has been accepted in principle by STAR Protocols.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) still lacks prognostic and predictive biomarkers to monitor the disease and the response to therapy. The usual strategy in translational research is to start from human samples, to identify molecular markers and gene networks and then to functionally validate them in vitro and in animal models. We devised herein a completely opposite strategy from mouse to man by performing an aggressiveness screen and used functional genomics, imaging, clinical data and computational approaches in order to discover molecular pathways and players in renal cancer development and metastasis. Multiple cell lines for primary tumor growth, survival in the blood circulation and lung metastasis or metastatic spread from the primary tumor were generated and analyzed using a multi-layered approach which includes large-scale transcriptome, genome and methylome analyses. Transcriptome and methylome analyses demonstrated distinct clustering in three different groups. Remarkably, DNA sequencing did not show significant genomic variations in the different groups which indicates absence of clonal selection during the in vivo amplification process. Transcriptome analysis revealed distinct signatures of tumor aggressiveness which were validated in patient cohorts. Methylome analysis of full-length DNA allowed clustering of the same groups and revealed clinically relevant signatures. Furthermore, we identified SAA2 and CFB as soluble prognostic and predictive biomarkers of the therapeutic response. We also uncovered IL34 as another soluble prognostic biomarker and key regulator of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) progression. This was also functionally validated in vivo, and a mathematical model of IL34-dependent primary tumor growth and metastasis development was provided. These results indicate that such multilayered analysis in a RCC animal model leads to meaningful results that are of translational significance. Footnotes * We have revised our manuscript to some extent. We made it shorter and more concise. The following modifications have been done: 1/ The abstract was rewritten 2/ We have moved significant parts of the Materials and Methods section to supplementary Materials and Methods 3/ We shortened sections in the manuscript in the Result section and Discussion section to highlight more the important parts of our study and to make the message more transparent. 4/ We removed GRPC5A and PODNL1 from the results and Discussion section because we wanted to emphasize markers in the signatures that were soluble and which could be tested in patient cohorts. 5/ We have corrected some spelling mistakes